news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Guotai Junan Securities released a research report saying that Trump will compete for the US election again. If Trump wins, US trade protectionism will be strengthened, and local new energy policies may fluctuate, which will affect the demand for new energy vehicles in the US market in the short term, and will not change the global electrification trend in the medium and long term. In 2023-2024, China's leading automakers and auto parts suppliers will plan overseas markets in advance. Under the global trade protectionism environment, localized production is the general trend. China's automotive industry chain is expected to accelerate its overseas expansion, continue to play its manufacturing advantages overseas, and breed global giants. We recommend leading vehicle and auto parts companies with global production and competitiveness.

Trump is more supportive of traditional energy and if he wins, he may reduce industry support for electric vehicles.Referring to Trump's policies during his last term and his campaign platform, Trump is more supportive of traditional energy and has repeatedly criticized the current US electric vehicle policy. The current President Biden has vigorously developed the energy transformation and electric vehicle industry through subsidies, tax credits, infrastructure construction and other means. The sales of new energy vehicles during 2021-2023 under Biden's administration have achieved rapid growth. "Saving the auto industry" is an important issue in Trump's campaign. If Trump wins, the auto industry will be one of his key policy directions. Considering that he is more supportive of traditional energy, the existing US new energy vehicle support policy may fluctuate.

If the United States continues to impose additional tariffs, China's exports of parts to the United States will be under pressure in the short term, but the impact on complete vehicles will be relatively small.Tariffs are one of the key points of Trump's campaign policy portfolio. If Trump wins, he may impose tariffs on the world and China at the same time. Chinese auto parts are the main source of imports for the United States, and the United States is the largest export market for Chinese auto parts. If the tariff level continues to increase, both sides will face pressure. In the short term, it depends on the bargaining power under the competitive landscape, and in the medium term, it depends on the construction and management capabilities of overseas production capacity. In terms of complete vehicles, China will export only 66,000 passenger cars and 10,000 pure electric passenger cars to the United States each year in 2023, accounting for 2% and 1% of my country's passenger car exports respectively. Most of the export brands are joint venture brands such as GM, Ford, and Volvo. If the United States imposes tariffs on complete vehicles, the impact on China will be relatively small.

China's automobile overseas expansion is accelerating, and its global layout is about to enter the harvest period.The NEV policies in non-US regions are still friendly, and there is great potential for China's NEV production capacity to go overseas. Chinese automakers are accelerating their overseas factory layout. In 2023, BYD, Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile and other automakers have announced new overseas factory construction plans. It is expected that a batch of new factories with larger production capacity will be put into production in 2024-2025, and the overseas production capacity layout of Chinese automakers has entered a new stage. With global electrification and overseas customer expansion, China's leading auto parts manufacturers will build factories in Europe, North America, Southeast Asia and other regions in 2022-2023 to achieve localized production, give play to manufacturing advantages, and continuously increase global share. In 2025-2026, they will enter the harvest period of overseas orders and capacity release.

risk warning:The United States imposed additional tariffs, the U.S. new energy vehicle policy was not as expected, and the U.S. auto market was not as expected.