Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Guangdong Securities: New proposals and new signals from the 730 Politburo meeting

2024-07-31

Chief Economist and Director of Research Institute of Guangdong Securities: Luo Zhiheng

Analysts: Ma Jiajin, Yuan Ye

event

On July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year.

The 730 Political Bureau meeting was held after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. It not only proposed to use reform as a driving force to promote stable growth, adjust the structure and prevent risks, but also put forward many new judgments and new proposals on the current situation.

Judgment of the situationIt continued the "overall stability with steady progress" and at the same time more fully appreciated the severity of the situation, facing up to "the increasing adverse effects of the current changes in the external environment, insufficient domestic effective demand, differentiation in economic operations, many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and pain in the transformation of new and old growth drivers."

In terms of macroeconomic regulation,It reiterated that "we must effectively enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation" and proposed that "macroeconomic policies must continue to be exerted and be more powerful" and "a batch of incremental policy measures must be reserved early and launched in a timely manner."

In terms of specific measures,It clearly states that "we should expand domestic demand with a focus on boosting consumption, the focus of economic policies should be shifted more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, and service consumption should be used as an important means to expand and upgrade consumption" and "we should strongly and effectively support the development of gazelle companies and unicorn companies. We should strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent 'involutionary' vicious competition."

In terms of preventing and mitigating risks,The risks of real estate and local debt were mentioned again, but there were also new terms, such as "creating conditions to accelerate the resolution of debt risks of local financing platforms." Unlike the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions emphasized in the past, this time the focus was on the capital market, "coordinating risk prevention, strengthening supervision, and promoting development, boosting investor confidence, and enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market."

Overall, the assessment of the situation pays more attention to the adverse impact of the external environment, the policy tone is more positive, emphasizing consistent policy orientation and the implementation of reform measures as soon as possible. It is expected that more forceful fiscal policies will be introduced in the next stage.We should focus on solving the problems of real estate and local fiscal pressure. Stabilization of real estate and transition of local governments from emergency to normal are two prerequisites for sustained economic recovery. These problems are problems encountered during the period of growth rate shift and structural transformation pain. They are general laws of the economy and should be viewed objectively and rationally. Of course, we should also take greater subjective initiative.

Interpretation

I. Overall situation: Overall stability, steady progress, but adverse effects from changes in the external environment are increasing, requiring proactive responses

The meeting fully affirmed the economic achievements in the first half of the year, and at the same time fully estimated the severity of the situation, did not avoid problems, pointed out that the adverse effects of changes in the external environment have increased, and then proposed for the first time that "macroeconomic policies should continue to be more effective and more powerful", and proposed "unswervingly completing the goals and tasks of economic and social development for the whole year". The policy tone tends to be more positive, and it is expected that more powerful packages of policies will be introduced in the next stage to boost confidence and expectations.

China is still in the post-epidemic recovery period, but the main problems facing the economy are insufficient total demand, especially the real estate industry has not stabilized, and local fiscal pressures. We need to further adopt more forceful and forward-paced policies. From the perspective of economic momentum, the first half of the year was mainly due to the higher growth rate of exports, manufacturing investment, and central fiscal expenditures driving the corresponding infrastructure investment growth; however, the real estate industry has not stabilized, and the tight balance of local finances has led to restrictions on local infrastructure; the growth rate of residents' consumption and private investment is still sluggish. From the perspective of micro-subjects, the enthusiasm of micro-subjects such as local governments, residents, and entrepreneurs needs to be further improved. In the first half of the year, the nominal GDP growth rate was 4.1% year-on-year, lower than the actual growth rate of 5%. The sluggish prices directly affected residents' income, corporate income, and fiscal revenue.

To boost confidence and expectations, on the one hand, we must rely on expectation management, strengthen communication between government departments and the market, and promptly clarify some misunderstandings and distorted understandings of policies; on the other hand, we must take more forceful and even beyond-expectation measures to stabilize the economy. More importantly, we must maintain policy stability and continuity and implement the rule of law.

Second, the focus of economic policies should be shifted to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, with a focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand.

The meeting placed "boosting consumption" in a more important position, with a separate paragraph in the press release:"We should focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand. The focus of economic policies should be shifted more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption. We should increase residents' income through multiple channels, enhance the consumption capacity and willingness of middle- and low-income groups, take service consumption as an important starting point for expanding and upgrading consumption, and support consumption in culture, tourism, elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping."

In the past, my country's economic development and macro-control ideas were to focus on enterprises rather than residents, and on investment rather than consumption.First, for a catching-up economy to achieve leapfrog development, it must inevitably go through a stage of rapid economic growth promoted by capital accumulation and large-scale investment; second, compared with decentralized household consumption, promoting corporate investment is a shorter, flatter and faster policy implementation with more significant results; third, my country was in an era of shortage economy for a period of time, and focusing on enterprises and investment is generally consistent with the healthy development of the economy and satisfying household consumption.

As my country's economy shifts from high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development, the focus of economic policies should also shift more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption.China's production capacity has increased rapidly and it has become the world's factory. The living standards of residents have improved and consumption has been upgraded. Stimulating traditional enterprises and investment is no longer suitable for the new stage of economic development. This is also an important reason why the marginal effect of the current traditional stimulus policy continues to weaken. Consumption is the final demand, and investment is a derived demand, which is derived to meet future consumption; investment is demand in the short term, and will form supply in the medium and long term to meet future residents' consumption. If the current corporate investment under policy stimulus does not match future residents' consumption, investment demand may drive economic recovery in the short term, but in the future, due to excessive ineffective supply and insufficient effective supply, there will be a dilemma of overcapacity and insufficient demand.

Consumption fundamentally depends on three aspects: consumption capacity (income), consumption willingness (the degree of perfection of social security systems such as medical care, pension and education), and the adaptability of supply. If these fundamental problems are not solved, it will be difficult to significantly increase consumption.Consumption is the purpose of economic development, not a tool. Economic development is to satisfy residents' better consumption needs, not to make consumption a tool.

Boosting consumption cannot rely solely on stimulus, but on promoting reform and improving mechanisms:First, we need to further improve the structure of national income distribution, and increase the proportion of residents, especially low- and middle-income groups, in the distribution of national income by improving the tax system, increasing transfer payments, and accelerating the market-oriented circulation of rural land. Second, we need to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, reduce the proportion of fiscal-supported personnel and infrastructure expenditure, and shift the expenditure structure from being mainly "material" to being mainly "personnel". Third, we need to accelerate the reform of the household registration system, accelerate the process of urbanization of migrant workers, stabilize the expectations of migrant workers, and increase the marginal propensity to consume. Fourth, we need to work on the supply side, optimize the supply structure, and further increase the proportion of high-end manufacturing in the manufacturing industry. Fifth, we need to relax market access in service consumption areas such as tourism, culture, medical care, elderly care, education and training, and domestic services, while strengthening standard construction and effective supervision.

3. Fiscal policy: "reserve early and launch a batch of incremental policy measures in a timely manner" and "create conditions to accelerate the resolution of debt risks of local financing platforms"

The meeting proposed: "We must strengthen counter-cyclical regulation, implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, accelerate the full implementation of the determined policy measures, and reserve and launch a batch of incremental policy measures as early as possible. We must speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, support the construction of security capabilities in major national strategies and key areas, and promote large-scale equipment renewal and replacement of old durable consumer goods with new ones. We must optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and ensure the bottom line of the 'three guarantees'." The meeting proposed: "We must improve and implement the local package debt reduction plan and create conditions to accelerate the resolution of debt risks of local financing platforms."

From the beginning of the year, this year's fiscal policy is relatively positive. Considering the deficit of 3.88 trillion, special bonds of 3.9 trillion, ultra-long-term special bonds of 1 trillion, and additional bonds of 1 trillion issued last year but mainly used this year, the total scale is as high as 9.78 trillion, close to 10 trillion. However, due to the fact that the real estate market is still in the adjustment and transformation period, the growth rates of general public budget and land transfer income in the first half of the year were -2.8% and -18.3% respectively; at the same time, due to the gradual reduction of high-quality special bond projects, the general public budget and government fund budget expenditures were lower than expected, and the sum of the two budget expenditures was -2.8% year-on-year, so it is indeed necessary to adopt a more active fiscal policy.

In the short term, we can reserve policies from three aspects:

First, we will study increasing the deficit and issuing more government bonds to make up for the slow spending caused by the decline in land transfer income and other factors, and increase countercyclical adjustments.The additional treasury bonds can be used for three purposes: 1) Re-lending to some local governments with greater pressure to alleviate liquidity risks and promote local governments to return to normal from emergency status. 2) Giving partial subsidies to unemployed and unemployed university graduates who have graduated in recent years and low-income urban and rural people to improve their risk resistance and consumption capacity and maintain social stability. There is no need to worry about the phenomenon of supporting lazy people, because this part of unemployed college students has a greater relationship with the impact of the epidemic in recent years, which is an objective rather than subjective reason. The issuance of subsidies is an emergency measure, not a normalized measure, and there is a withdrawal cycle, which is to win a more stable economic and social development environment for reform; the method can be in the form of a pilot. 3) Invest in major projects of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in advance, and give sufficient project reserve time to avoid the phenomenon of project packaging and low efficiency of fund use caused by temporary project search. The recent flood prevention situation is severe, and it is necessary to further strengthen water conservancy construction.

The second is to speed up the issuance of special bonds. On the one hand, relax the scope of use of special bonds, and on the other hand, consider adjusting part of the special bond quota to general bonds.In the future, the quota determination mechanism and allocation mechanism of special bonds should be adjusted. The quota determination adopts the method of "how much project reserves, how much special bonds are issued", and the allocation mechanism is tilted towards population inflow and industrial support areas. It is necessary to rationalize the use of funds corresponding to national bonds, special national bonds, local general bonds, and local special bonds, and realize "spending long money for long-term things and short money for short-term things; spending national bonds for national things and local bonds for local things; spending special bonds for profitable things and general bonds for non-profit things".

The third is to optimize the "debt reduction" policy, create conditions to resolve the debt risks of financing platforms, and promote local governments to return to normal from emergency status.The debt accumulation of financing platforms is a long-term result. The debt resolution and transformation cannot be achieved overnight. Certain prerequisites must be met. Otherwise, debt resolution will lead to downward economic pressure and liquidity risks caused by the break of the upstream and downstream debt chains. The Politburo meeting proposed to create conditions to accelerate the resolution, which is actually a manifestation of systematic thinking. Specifically,The resolution of financing platform debt risks must at least meet the following prerequisites:1）As some local governments are under great pressure to repay debts, they can consider adopting three methods: issuing national debts and lending them to local governments, policy financial institutions lending to local governments, and continuing to issue special refinancing bonds to ease local pressure, avoid liquidity risks, ensure the "three guarantees" expenditures, and trade time for space;2）Local governments should abandon excessive intervention in the original urban investment companies and let them return to their market-oriented status. In their relationship with urban investment companies, local governments should only have two identities: shareholders and providers of public order, that is, local governments participate in the corporate governance of urban investment companies as shareholders and provide public order for urban investment companies as market entities. Otherwise, after some urban investment companies are transformed, other urban investment companies will emerge, and the problem must be solved fundamentally.3）Transfer some high-quality assets to support the transformation of financing platforms. Local resource endowments can support the transformation of urban investment companies, such as local industries that can be invested in to form industrial investment companies, and local finances that can pay accounts payable to public utility entities to form comprehensive urban operation service providers.4）It will promote the reconstruction and effective operation of the original urban investment companies' own corporate governance, risk management, incentive mechanisms, etc., and effectively resolve the historical debt burden.

4. Financial policy: Improving the inherent stability of the capital market, lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates are still options for monetary policy

The meeting specifically proposed to "enhance the inherent stability of the capital market."At the 430 Political Bureau meeting, the risk prevention proposal was "to continue to promote the reform and risk reduction of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and take multiple measures to promote the healthy development of the capital market". In comparison, this meeting did not talk about the financial risks of small and medium-sized institutions, but specifically detailed the requirements of the capital market. On the one hand, the risk mitigation work of small and medium-sized financial institutions is progressing steadily and has made certain progress. Small and medium-sized banks have achieved "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality" through mergers and reorganizations such as mergers and acquisitions by sponsoring banks and acquisitions and mergers by other banks, and their risk resistance has gradually improved. On the other hand, since the second half of 2023, the stock market has experienced large fluctuations, exposing problems in the long-short yield swap (DMA) business and the securities lending business.In the current situation of insufficient confidence among micro-entities, the sluggish performance of the stock market and the declining trading enthusiasm may lead to the spread of pessimistic expectations to the real economy. Therefore, improving the inherent stability of the capital market has become the key to blocking the resonance of pessimism in the financial market and the real economy.

Improving the inherent stability of the capital market was proposed in the government work report at this year's Two Sessions, and was also mentioned in the subsequent new "Nine National Policies" and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. Specific policy measures are mainly concentrated at the transaction supervision level.The new "Nine National Policies" clearly state: "Strengthen transaction supervision and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market."

First, we will improve transaction supervision standards and strictly punish illegal and irregular behaviors such as market manipulation and insider trading.September 2023,Jindi SharesOn the first day of listing, the actual controller and senior management team of the company "lent" the restricted shares they held to China Securities Finance Corporation, which then resold them to 13 securities companies and 124 investors. The behavior of using restricted shares as the target of securities lending and bypassing "reducing holdings" has greatly shaken the confidence of investors, especially when there is information asymmetry or market sentiment fluctuates greatly, which may aggravate the decline in stock prices and is not conducive to the inherent stability of the market. In view of this, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has suspended the scale of securities lending by new securities companies since the beginning of this year. In addition, the quantitative trading reporting system has also been implemented for quantitative trading. The adjustment of relevant rules and optimization of mechanisms are aimed at better monitoring "abnormal transactions" and strengthening the comprehensive assessment of stock market risks. It is expected that in the future, the intensity of penetrating supervision will be further increased, and the supervision of securities lending and quantitative will be strengthened. The behavior of "reducing holdings by bypassing" securities lending will be strictly cracked down. The fees related to the frequency of transactions may face continuous adjustments. While ensuring the stable operation of the market, the ecology of quantitative institutions will also face a major change.

The second is to strengthen the construction of strategic force reserves and stability mechanisms.This may be related to the stabilization fund, and the entry conditions and exit mechanism of the stabilization fund may be further clarified.

The third is to improve the expectation management mechanism and incorporate the assessment of the impact of major economic or non-economic policies on the capital market into the macro-policy orientation consistency assessment framework.Currently, the National Development and Reform Commission conducts a consistency assessment before the introduction of debt policies. The "Fair Competition Review Regulations" issued this year also require that all policies that may intervene in the economy require market supervision and management departments to conduct a fair review and assessment before they are introduced. In the future, the policy coordination of the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments will be further improved to avoid the adverse impact of synthetic fallacies on the market.

In terms of monetary policy, the meeting proposed: "We should use a variety of monetary policy tools in a comprehensive manner, increase financial support for the real economy, and promote a steady decline in the overall financing costs of society."Although constrained by the narrowing of internal and external interest rate spreads and exchange rates, lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates are still policy options. First, by curbing banks' illegal high-interest deposit collection, supporting small and medium-sized banks to supplement capital, and appropriately increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate to curb carry transactions, we can reduce the external constraints of monetary policy and expand policy space. Second, we should lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates when necessary to boost consumer spending and corporate investment demand, such as further reducing the interest rates of existing mortgage loans or allowing existing mortgage loans to be "converted into mortgages." Third, we should actively use structural monetary policy tools to promote the implementation of newly established tools such as re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and re-loans for affordable housing, and increase financial support for large-scale equipment renewal and old-for-new consumer goods, and local governments' acquisition of existing commercial housing.

V. Prevent and resolve real estate and local debt risks, accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model, and enhance local fiscal sustainability

The continued sluggish real estate market and tight balance of local finances are important drags on the current economic recovery. Real estate and local debt risks are also the two major "gray rhinos" facing the domestic economy.The meeting emphasized: "We must implement the new policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, adhere to the combination of digesting existing stocks and optimizing new stocks, actively support the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, further do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing, and accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development." "We must improve and implement local debt-repayment plans and create conditions to accelerate the resolution of debt risks of local financing platforms."

The real estate sector needs to accomplish three major tasks: first, ensuring the delivery of housing;It is necessary to meet the reasonable demand for real estate financing, provide appropriate assistance and support to real estate companies' cash flow problems caused by industry problems, and prevent systemic risks; problems caused by non-compliance and reckless operations should be handled in accordance with market-oriented and rule-of-law principles, and the impact of real estate companies' risks on demand should be minimized; and the assessment indicators for financial institutions should be appropriately adjusted to avoid a hard landing of real estate companies' bankruptcies.The second is to digest the existing real estate.In terms of purchase restrictions, it is necessary for first-tier cities to further relax them, such as lifting restrictions in suburban areas and increasing housing purchase quotas across the city; in terms of mortgage loans, local governments should reasonably adjust down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates on the basis of "differentiated policies for different cities" to lower the threshold and cost for residents to buy houses; in terms of government purchase and storage, the central government should increase its support for local governments, ease local fiscal pressure, and promote the smooth progress of purchase and storage work.The third is to optimize incremental housing.We must adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model; accelerate the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing construction, "normal and emergency dual-use" public infrastructure construction, and urban village renovation, improve the basic systems related to commercial housing, and better meet residents' rigid housing needs and diversified improved housing needs.

At present, local debt has achieved good results overall, but we still need to pay attention to and solve the possible "contraction effect":First, some provinces are under increasing pressure to pay interest, and borrowing to repay interest raises the risk of new hidden debt, leading to "interest into principal"; second, key debt repayment areas are delineated on a provincial basis, resulting in restrictions on investment and financing in cities and counties with lower debt risk levels in the region; third, investment in some key debt repayment provinces is restricted, resulting in a decline in investment efficiency, affecting local economic development and employment; fourth, the main urban investment companies with hidden debts are facing multiple pressures, and the transformation of urban investment companies is difficult.

We must persist in reducing debts during development. Reducing debts is not the goal, but reducing risks is the fundamental goal: First,As some local governments are currently under great pressure to repay their debts, we can consider taking three approaches: issuing treasury bonds by the central government and lending them to local governments, having policy financial institutions lend to local governments, and continuing to issue special refinancing bonds to ease local pressure, avoid liquidity risks, ensure the "three guarantees" expenditures, and exchange time for space.Second,Debt reduction policies will be formulated and implemented on a district and county basis, with greater emphasis on refined management and differentiated measures. The regional scope of new government investment projects will be strictly controlled from provinces to cities and counties to avoid inadvertently damaging the investment of some municipal (county) governments.Third,Strengthen coordination and cooperation among policies, especially strengthen cooperation with environmental protection, planning, auditing and other departments, to avoid the situation where there are resource assets but they are restricted by other systems, making it difficult to activate the resource assets.Fourth,Adhere to debt reduction in development, study the extension of the time for clearing hidden debts, and avoid the rigid debt reduction of local governments that will lead to economic contraction due to the zeroing out of debts in 2028. Fifth, further strengthen the responsibility of local governments, actively mobilize resources, strengthen resource coordination capabilities, improve expenditure efficiency, establish an incentive and constraint system for debt reduction, commend good local practices and innovative cases and provide political promotion incentives, and mobilize the creativity of all parties in debt reduction.

6. Cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and support the development of gazelle and unicorn enterprises

The meeting continued the concept of "developing new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions", emphasizing the need to "cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries", and particularly pointed out that "we must strongly and effectively support the development of gazelle companies and unicorn companies."

The characteristic of new productivity is innovation, and the main body of innovation is the thousands of small and medium-sized scientific and technological enterprises, among which unicorn enterprises and gazelle enterprises are the backbone. Take unicorn enterprises as an example. They have been established for no more than 10 years and have a total valuation of more than 1 billion US dollars. The high valuation is the market's recognition of the growth potential of enterprises.In recent years, the number of unicorn companies in my country has declined significantly.According to the "2023 Global Unicorn List" released by Hurun, China ranked second in the world with 316 unicorns in 2023, but there were only 15 new ones, while the United States had 179 new ones.

The reasons are as follows: First, foreign venture capital funds continue to flow out amid the Sino-US game.In February 2024, a special committee of the U.S. House of Representatives publicly called for restrictions on U.S. venture capital and venture capital companies' investments in Chinese companies in fields such as semiconductors and quantum computing. The international game indirectly confirms the importance of venture capital funds to technological innovation. Blocking venture capital funds has even become one of the means to curb industrial development.Second, the country is still in the process of cultivating “patient capital”, and there are still bottlenecks in the institutional environment, lacking sufficient financial support for unicorn and gazelle companies.For example, the docking mechanism between venture capital and innovation and entrepreneurship projects is not smooth, the performance evaluation of government-guided funds tends to be short-term, and the private equity exit mechanism in the capital market is not sound.Third, the downward pressure on the economy is relatively large, and some inconsistent policies in the early stage have reduced the confidence of private entrepreneurs in development. Fourth, structural overcapacity and "involutionary" vicious competition have reduced the profit space of enterprises.

In the next step, from the perspective of industrial planning, we will further smooth the channels for the exit of inefficient production capacity, prevent vicious competition in emerging industries, focus on the forward-looking deployment and tiered cultivation of future industries, and strive to create iconic products.First, for some structurally oversupplied industries, support industry mergers and acquisitions and smooth the market exit mechanism. Adhere to the market-oriented and government-guided approach, support leading enterprises in mergers and acquisitions of problem enterprises, increase industry concentration, promote large-scale and intensive operations, improve supply and demand relations, and prevent involutionary competition. Second, focus on promoting future manufacturing (intelligent manufacturing, biomanufacturing, nanomanufacturing, etc.), future information (satellite Internet, quantum information, etc.), future materials (advanced semiconductors, superconducting materials, etc.), future energy (nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, biomass energy, etc.), future space (aerospace, deep sea, deep earth, etc.) and future health (synthetic biology,Gene TechnologyIn the process of strengthening the industry and enriching the application scenarios, the key is to create iconic products. For example, breakthroughs in high-level intelligent connected cars, metaverse portals and other super terminals with explosive potential, or breakthroughs in humanoid robotsrobot, quantum computers, ultra-high-speed trains and other high-end equipment products.

From the perspective of mechanism guarantee, we must focus on policies, systems, rule of law and other aspects to create a good environment for the development of the private economy.First, before the introduction of policies involving directional adjustments, fully listen to the opinions of entrepreneurs, set a timetable and roadmap to avoid excessive policy swings, and at the same time introduce positive and negative cases of government-business relations to clear up chaos and set up examples. Second, formulate a negative list to allow entrepreneurs and investors to put down their psychological burdens and invest. Third, improve institutional construction, especially systematically sort out laws and regulations such as the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Anti-Monopoly Law to avoid replacing systems with policies. Fourth, implement the rule of law and put the spirit of the central government into practice, regulate the behavior of both market entities and administrative law enforcement agencies, and ultimately form stable expectations.

risk warning:External shocks exceeded expectations, and policies to stabilize growth exceeded expectations

Analyst: Luo Zhiheng, Practice Number: S0300520110001

Analyst: Ma Jiajin, Practice Number: S0300522110002

Analyst: Yuan Ye, Practice Number: S0300523070001

A series of research reports on learning from important conference spirits:

6、《”, July 24, 2024

5、《”, July 18, 2024

4、《Eight major signals released by the 430 Politburo meeting”, April 30, 2024

3、《”, March 5, 2024

2、《”, December 12, 2023

news

Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Guangdong Securities: New proposals and new signals from the 730 Politburo meeting

Introduction

my contact information