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"You can eat as much as you want for only 50 yuan per person." This is the sign of a pickled fish chain store in Shenzhen's Raffles Plaza.

"In the past, our average customer spending was around 80-90 yuan, but now it's only 50-60 yuan," the store manager told the Prism author. "This is to cater to the general public, and we have to push prices back down."

In the past year, this chain restaurant has been the only one to offer price cuts. On July 23, the topic of "Tai Er Pickled Fish Price Per Customer Drops to Seven Years Ago" became a hot search topic.

According to the second quarter announcement released by Jiu Mao Jiu Group, to which Tai Er belongs, Tai Er's latest per capita consumption level is 69 yuan. This figure is not only the same as in 2017, but also the first time that the price has dropped to the 60 yuan range since the company went public in 2019. From 2019 to 2023, the average customer price of Tai Er's pickled fish has remained between 70 yuan and 80 yuan.

At the same time, Chen Ji Shun He and Baheli Beef Hot Pot also put out advertisements that the prices were back to ten years ago. The fast food chain Xiangcunji even announced that it was back to 2008, with the original price of 16 yuan for Kung Pao Chicken Rice now only 11.99 yuan.

As if catering brands are chasing trends, the average customer spending has entered a collective "retro" period.

Shuang Hotpot "admits defeat" and cuts prices

"Most customers choose the 98 yuan meal for two on the group buying platform." said the clerk at the above-mentioned sauerkraut fish restaurant.

Previously, the price of such a serving of pickled fish for two people was 128 yuan, but earlier this year, they reduced the price to 98 yuan per serving, which was the same price nine years ago, when the pickled fish chain was founded.

A pickled fish chain store in Raffles Square in Shenzhen put up a sign that the prices would go back to nine years ago. Photo by the author

The 98 yuan meal for two here includes a standard portion of pickled fish, a stir-fried vegetable dish, a cold appetizer and a drink, which will make two adult men feel full. However, according to the staff, the weight of the pickled fish in the set meal is 100 grams less than the original 128 yuan version. In addition, the group purchase package can only be used from Monday to Friday.

Despite its favorable prices, this store's business is still not the hottest in the district, even on weekdays.

At around 12:30 noon, which is the peak dining time, only half of the seats in the store were occupied. In contrast, other restaurants on the B1 floor of the mall, such as Yu Jian Xiaomian, Gu Tian Dao Xiang, and Fu Ke Mala Tang, where the average customer spending is concentrated between 20 and 30 yuan, were crowded.

Xiaofei (pseudonym), who works near Raffles Square, is a frequent visitor to the mall. She recalled that in 2023, a few months after the lockdown, the restaurants in the mall were very popular. "Even on weekdays, mid-range restaurants on the upper floors of the mall often need to queue up." But now, she has found that the flow of customers in the restaurants upstairs has decreased significantly.

"Since the second half of last year, some fences have appeared on the high floors where restaurants are concentrated, but no new stores have moved in," said Xiaofei.

Shuang Hotpot, also owned by the Jiu Mao Jiu Group, is still "strong" on the third floor of the mall. Xiaofei remembers that when Shuang Hotpot first opened in May last year, it was very popular, and many young friends around her loved to go there to check in and take photos.

"The taste is not much different from other hotpot restaurants. The main reason for going there to eat is to experience the atmosphere," said Xiaofei.

In order to attract young customers of Generation Z, Shuang Hotpot often launches activities such as "waiters play two-dimensional characters" and "hotpot restaurants transform into disco scenes". In the past, this marketing strategy that uses the "atmosphere" that young people like as a selling point has been effective.

According to the group's 2023 financial report, the share of Shuang Hotpot in the revenue of Jiu Mao Jiu Group increased from 6.5% to 13.5%, second only to Tai Er.

However, only half a year later, Shuang Hotpot was abandoned by some young people.

99According to the latest financial report of , in the second quarter of this year, the turnover rate of Shuang Hotpot was 2.8 times per day. Last year, the turnover rate of Shuang Hotpot was 3.8 times per day. In this regard, Jiu Mao Jiu Group said that consumer habits have changed due to changes in the external environment, and the per capita consumption and turnover rate of restaurants have fallen, resulting in a decline in the revenue of single restaurants.

Faced with the situation where fewer and fewer people are willing to pay 100 yuan per capita for the atmosphere, Shuang Hotpot began to "admit defeat" and cut prices. From 2022 to 2023, its per capita consumption level dropped from 128 yuan to 113 yuan, and in the second quarter of this year, this figure further dropped to 104 yuan.

Xiaofei discovered that the slogan at the entrance of the old hotpot was "Not Michelin, not on the must-eat list, service is not good".HaidilaoGood. Eat hotpot, as long as you are happy". But now, the "admit defeat" announcement has been changed to "Soup base starts from 8 yuan, meat dishes start from 9.9 yuan, vegetarian dishes start from 6.6 yuan, and stewed rice is 6 yuan for all you can eat..."

Even so, Xiaofei still has no strong desire to dine in. In her opinion, such a price reduction announcement is more of a marketing strategy. In fact, on the group buying platform, the only group buying package for 2 people at Shuang Hotpot is still priced at 246 yuan.

"There is no value for money, and even if the atmosphere is lively, it lacks sincerity," she said.

There are more than a thousand fewer restaurants in Shanghai that cost 500 yuan per person

In addition to these brand chain restaurants that continue to cut prices to survive, some high-end restaurants are also not having an easy time.

In the past, Japanese omakase, which cost thousands of yuan per person, was an important choice for middle-class diners to show their status and taste. However, Xiaoxuan, a Japanese food lover, found that in Shenzhen, more and more high-end Japanese food restaurants have launched affordable omakase sets, such as the "single sea urchin hot dog omakase" for 298 yuan and the "eight pieces of sushi for 362 yuan".

Fan Chen, a food columnist with ten years of experience in visiting Michelin restaurants, is very familiar with the high-end catering industry. In his opinion, high-end restaurants often used Japanese ingredients in the past to maintain their high-end reputation.

However, since Japan started discharging contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea, the General Administration of Customs of China has announced a complete suspension of imports of Japanese aquatic products. Influenced by this policy, high-end Japanese restaurants have also begun to follow suit and promote the localization of ingredients, which has reduced the cost of ingredients and lowered prices to attract a wider customer base.

In fact, the high-end catering industry has been facing operating pressure. Fan Chen said: "Although the average customer spending of high-end restaurants is higher, it is difficult to increase the turnover rate, and the preparation of dishes requires complex processes, so the labor costs of chefs and employees are relatively high."

In addition, such restaurants have high requirements for decoration and location, and the cost is always high. However, more and more middle-class people are no longer willing to pay for the "luxury experience" carefully created by high-end restaurants.

On social media, many young people have also begun sharing strategies for buying “poor guy’s packages” from major brands, encouraging everyone to get the bargains together.

Some high-end restaurants that once entered the market in a high-profile manner are also declining under the attention of the entire industry. In 2022, Mingluchuan, a Michelin-rated Sichuan restaurant with an average per capita consumption of 2,300 yuan, opened on the Bund in Shanghai. This restaurant, which specializes in 24 types of Sichuan cuisine, announced its closure less than a year after opening.

"After the epidemic is over, the middle class with financial means can go abroad directly to taste local food, and domestic restaurants have also experienced a round of survival of the fittest," said Fan Chen.

In addition, chain restaurants usually have large-scale supply chains and purchasing capabilities, which enables them to obtain ingredients and other materials at a lower cost, thus lowering prices. In Fan Chen's view, it is difficult for high-end restaurants without mature supply chains to do this.

According to Hongcan Big Data, Shanghai, which ranks first in the country in terms of the total number of operating catering stores, has seen the proportion of restaurants with an average customer spending of more than 500 yuan drop from 1.35% to 0.76% as of July 30 this year, compared with early May last year, and the total number of stores has decreased by more than 1,000.

"After ten years of operation, the restaurant has entered its most difficult time." At the end of last year, the owner of a high-end restaurant complained to Fan Chen.

Tianyancha data shows that as of June 30, 2024, the number of newly registered domestic catering-related companies reached 1.346 million, but the number of cancellations and revocations also reached 1.056 million.

"Consumption downgrade has become a trend," said Xiaoxuan (pseudonym). Having worked in the Internet industry in Shenzhen for five years, she found that more and more young colleagues no longer choose niche high-end restaurants in the building when entertaining guests, but turn to affordable and good restaurants downstairs in the company.

"The wave of layoffs in the industry has made everyone more concerned about consumption." Xiaoxuan said that many of her colleagues of the same age are burdened with mortgage pressure. In the past, everyone was confident about future income and dared to spend money. However, now, saving money has become a tacit understanding among colleagues.

According to Xiaoxuan's observation, almost every colleague had a cup ofStarbucks, nowadays, they are gradually decreasing on the office desks of companies, replaced by the famous Kudi andLuckin Coffee。

The phenomenon of the middle class gradually abandoning Starbucks is also reflected in the company's performance.

According to the 2023 full-year financial report released by Luckin Coffee, Luckin Coffee's total net revenue in 2023 reached 24.903 billion yuan (about 3.45 billion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 87.3%. This is the first time that Luckin Coffee has surpassed Starbucks China (3.16 billion U.S. dollars) in annual sales, becoming the largest coffee chain brand in the Chinese market.

"Consumer mentality has also changed." Xiaoxuan said that in the past, when people bought Starbucks at work, they preferred to take a photo of it next to their computer and post it on social media, as if this symbolized the beginning of white-collar life. But now, coffee has become more of a "life-saving drink" for young people at work.

"It's all caffeine and syrup anyway, so what's wrong with choosing a cheaper one?" said a highly-rated comment online.

In addition to coffee, some group-buying platforms have recently launched a "Puhao Fan" activity on takeaway platforms, which is also popular among migrant workers. A plate of signature pork trotter rice costs only 6.9 yuan, and the prices of products in many well-known milk tea shops have also dropped to the 10 yuan range.

Xiaoxuan said: "If they are all pre-prepared dishes, why spend 30 yuan to order them? Brand or not is no longer important, the key is cost-effectiveness."

The 2024 China Catering Industry Ecology White Paper released by the Red Catering Research Institute shows that accepting substitutes and no longer simply pursuing high-end brands has become the consumption characteristic of the younger generation.

Saizeriya, an Italian restaurant that specializes in low prices, is a beneficiary of "consumption downgrade", and its performance has also grown against the trend. Looking through the menu, the noble ingredients in your impression have all become "Shaxian prices": 16 yuan for garlic snails, 18 yuan for tomato seafood risotto, 20 yuan for pizza...

Its menu shows that Saizeriya has 100 dishes, 72 of which are priced below 20 yuan.

This low-price strategy has brought a large number of customers to the restaurant. According to the consolidated financial report released by Saizeriya from September 2023 to May 2024, the net profit in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2024 reached 5.1 billion yen (about 230 million yuan), which is twice that of the same period last year. Its operating profit reached 10 billion yen (about 450 million yuan), which is three times that of the same period last year.

Investors have also keenly captured this change in consumer psychology. Recently, Zhu Xiaohu, managing partner of Jinshajiang Venture Capital, said in a media interview that he met an entrepreneur who sells sake. He started selling sake in January this year and now sells 10,000 bottles a day on Douyin. This made him feel that there are still many opportunities in the affordable consumer sector.

"If we are going to fight today, we should fight for affordable consumption. 1.4 billion people still need to consume every day. No one is willing to pay the IQ tax for the price today." Zhu Xiaohu believes that as long as good products and good prices can be provided, there will still be huge market opportunities.