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The actual FSD test "almost caused a car crash", and this analyst was confused: What can Tesla show in October?

2024-07-30

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Tesla FSD has repeatedly encountered dangerous situations during actual road tests, causing analysts to worry about the safety of the system.

On the 30th, after test-driving the Tesla Model Y, Truist Securities analyst William Stein disclosed the serious safety risks of FSD in actual road tests.

In the report, Stan detailed the shortcomings of FSD in dealing with complex road conditions, identifying stationary obstacles, and handling emergencies. He pointed out that FSD requires too little driver intervention in some cases, and can continue to operate even when the driver is not paying attention to the road conditions at all, which undoubtedly increases the risk of accidents.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has always been confident about the future of FSD and has repeatedly promised that FSD will completely change the way people travel. He said on the 24th of this month that FSD will officially enter the Chinese market in version V12.5 or V12.6.

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Stan said that FSD's ability to handle complex road conditions was clearly insufficient. The vehicle almost hit a vehicle that had just completed a right turn, indicating that the system's ability to recognize stationary or slow-moving obstacles was flawed.

The Model Y accelerated through the intersection just as the car in front of us completed the right turn. My quick intervention was absolutely necessary, otherwise an accident would have definitely occurred.

During the test drive, the FSD system required less driver intervention and continued to operate even when the driver was not paying attention to the road conditions. Stan believes that this "overconfidence" actually increases the risk of accidents.

I took my head completely off the road and the system continued to run for 20-40 seconds before issuing a warning.

In addition, FSD changed lanes multiple times on roads where lane changes were prohibited, indicating that the system still had defects in its understanding and compliance with traffic rules.

This was Stan's second time trying FSD, and his reviews were mixed. In his first review, he wrote, "Very good, but didn't work today." In this test drive, he concluded, "No improvement, maybe even worse."

Stan, who did both of his drives in sunny, dry New York suburbs, said the FSD version he tested was "really good, but it's far from 'solving' the autonomous driving problem."

As electric vehicle sales slow, Musk has placed more emphasis on FSD and Tesla's broader AI efforts. Tesla's stock price has experienced a roller coaster ride, falling 40% from the beginning of the year to April, but rising against the trend in June. Tesla's current stock price is $232.


Tesla declined to comment on the report released by Stein. Musk said at X on Monday that Tesla is deploying an upgraded version of FSD, but "this does not mean that the company can achieve 'full' self-driving."

The October launch event will undoubtedly become a major focus for Tesla and the entire autonomous driving industry. Will Musk be able to launch a mature RoboTaxi prototype in just a few months? Let's wait and see.