news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

China Fund News reporter Wu Jun

Recently, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, a well-known joint venture financial management company, held a mid-year investment outlook meeting to look forward to the capital market, investment opportunities and asset allocation in the second half of the year. In the view of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, the current valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is cheap, and we should patiently wait for positive signals; we are optimistic about the bond market in the medium and long term, but we should pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term; and pay attention to the allocation value of assets such as gold and US bonds.

It is understood that the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau has recently approved the increase of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management's registered capital from 1 billion yuan to 1.4 billion yuan, making it the first joint venture wealth management company in China to be approved to complete the capital increase. As of the end of June this year, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management's management scale was about 12.3 billion yuan.

Exports are a bright spot for China's economy this year

Policies focus on long-term economic development

Regarding the domestic macro environment, Song Yu, BlackRock's chief China economist, said that growth slowed down in the second quarter after a good start at the beginning of the year, and it is necessary to increase policy support to maintain economic stability. The government is expected to start adjusting policies in the third quarter. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee mainly discussed some long-term and structural policies to draw a blueprint for the high-quality development of China's economy in the future. Although the decisions of the meeting are more focused on long-term development, many policies can benefit both the long-term and short-term economy and markets. The conference sent a clear positive signal, and the core now is to implement it as soon as possible.

Song Yu also mentioned that China's economic exports are still a bright spot. Foreign demand has grown strongly in recent months, and the international competitiveness of Chinese products has been improved to a certain extent. The development of new products and new markets has provided additional impetus. Now "South-South" economic and trade cooperation is increasing significantly, and the number of Middle Eastern customers investing in China has increased significantly in the past two years. They have sufficient funds and are optimistic about investment opportunities in the Chinese market.

"Overall, the Chinese economy still has many bright spots. However, both consumption and investment require stable expectations to continue to improve. For investors, there are different investments to be made in different market economic environments," said Song Yu.

Zhang Pengjun, general manager of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, talked about the current development of the company.

He revealed that as of the end of June this year, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management had a total of 110 public fund wealth management products and 1 private fund wealth management product (surviving), with a management scale of approximately RMB 12.3 billion, serving approximately 70,000 investors. In addition, the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau recently approved the increase of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management's registered capital from RMB 1 billion to RMB 1.4 billion, making it the first joint venture wealth management company in China to complete the capital increase.

According to Zhang Pengjun, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management's products are divided into eight series, covering low, medium and high risk levels, including fixed income, equity, hybrid and other types of products, providing diversified investment solutions and services for different customer groups. As of July 5, among the closed-end fixed-income products that matured this year, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management's product compliance rate reached 98%. Since the company was founded, the compliance rate of all matured closed-end fixed-income products of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management has been 96%.

A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are cheaply valued, wait patiently for positive signals

Optimistic about gold, US bonds and other asset classes

Liu Rui, deputy general manager and chief multi-asset investment officer of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, talked about overseas markets. He said that the decline in overall inflation in the United States this year was lower than market expectations, but the downward trend in inflation in the past one or two months exceeded expectations; at the same time, the hot job market is slowly cooling down, so the US economy is getting closer to a soft landing, and there are more objective figures to support the current interest rate cut. "We judge that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates once or twice this year, thus starting a cycle of interest rate cuts. After that, there will be many chain reactions in the global capital market, and a series of adjustments will be made to the monetary policies of major countries."

He is optimistic about US bonds because they have a high cost-effectiveness, especially the short end is now at an inverted level, with a two-year yield of 4.6% and 4.7%, and the absolute yield is quite attractive. However, US stocks are now overvalued, and technology stocks have become the most "crowded" area, but in the long run, he is still optimistic about the AI ​​theme.

At the same time, Liu Rui is also optimistic about gold. There are three factors behind this: First, the possibility of the US real interest rate going down is much higher than the possibility of going up. In the long run, gold and the US real interest rate are negatively correlated, and the downward trend of interest rates supports the gold price; second, the central bank purchases gold. Although the People's Bank of China has basically stopped purchasing gold in the past two months, from the logic of long-term global diversified allocation, there are more US dollar assets now. Due to concerns about the credit of the US dollar, the demand for gold will increase, thereby supporting the gold price; third, the potential risks of anti-globalization and geopolitical and geopolitical conflicts exist for a long time, which will also support the performance of gold. "If there is an interest rate cut in the third quarter, it is very likely to be the driving force and catalyst for the next wave of gold price increases."

Regarding the A-share market, Liu Rui believes that the overall valuation of A-shares is relatively cheap, and the current situation is limited in terms of downside space, and the upside is waiting to improve. At present, real estate has a relatively large impact on the economy, but China's exports and manufacturing are relatively strong. At the same time, China's stock market is ushering in a round of reforms. The new "Nine National Policies" advocate turning the equity market into an "investment market" rather than a "financing market." These are relatively long-term and subtle changes. "Once there are more favorable signals in policy or economy, we will think it is a good opportunity, so A-shares must wait patiently for positive signals at present."

Regarding Hong Kong stocks, Liu Rui said that high-dividend stocks are a type of asset that deserves attention. Compared with A-shares, they are cheaper and have a relatively higher dividend rate. At the same time, the profits of Hong Kong technology stocks are better than expected, and the valuation is relatively cheap. However, it is undeniable that the volatility of Hong Kong stocks is much greater than that of A-shares, and they are more affected by overseas funds.

The medium- and long-term fundamentals of the bond market are improving

But in the short term, we should pay attention to the risk of callback

Wang Dengfeng, deputy general manager and chief fixed income investment officer of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, believes that the current bond market valuation is at a historical high, credit spreads have been squeezed to the limit, short-term and long-term yields continue to decline, and the central bank has repeatedly reminded of the long-term yield risk recently. In addition, the market is trading downward expectations, and if the trading is overcrowded, it will cause a high degree of bubble. Once there is any disturbance in the market, it will lead to systemic risks.

Wang Dengfeng said that the current market valuation is relatively expensive, and everyone is very worried about the market. Any action may cause the long-term bond market to fluctuate by 3 to 5 basis points a day. Therefore, the short-term bond market is under great pressure to adjust. If short-term funds are invested in long-term assets, the risks are cumulative, because short-term fluctuations are large and may cause large drawdowns. "It is not recommended to use short-term funds in long-term asset allocation, but long-term, stable funds can still hold long bonds."

However, Wang Dengfeng also believes that the fundamentals of the bond market are good in the long run. At present, both fiscal and monetary policies have adopted certain support strategies, especially the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds this year, which has exerted significant efforts to support the steady growth of China's economy. Recently, the central bank has paid attention to the problem of large-scale risk mismatch of non-bank entities, and has intervened in some open market government bonds, as well as repurchase and reverse repurchase. These actions all show the care for the bond market and hope that the entire bond market will develop steadily, rather than in a leapfrog and volatile manner.

Wang Dengfeng said that the long bull trend of the bond market will not change, but we must pay attention to the risk of short-term correction: first, pay attention to the exchange rate and the central bank's guidance to institutions, as well as the guidance at the macro-operation level; second, pay attention to some fundamental data, and the impact on the market when there is a rebound at the micro level; third, pay attention to fiscal strength, whether local government bonds will be issued at an accelerated pace in the third quarter, thereby affecting the supply and demand relationship.

Pension financial products are worth holding for a long time

Talking about retirement financial management, Tu Jiayi, investment manager of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, said that if investors are to hold retirement financial products for a long time, two things need to be done: first, adapt to the client's risk preferences; second, strive to help clients obtain returns that exceed inflation.

In terms of investment strategy, Tu Jiayi said that they found that some popular strategies overseas, such as target date products and the asset allocation model "60/40" (investing 60% of funds in stocks and 40% in bonds), may not be suitable for local customer needs at this stage, and pension financial products need to be localized. "If you want financial management customers to hold pension financial products for a long time, the risk level must be lower. Therefore, the risk level we set corresponds to a maximum drawdown of about 2%."

Specifically, Tu Jiayi introduced that BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management mainly starts from four levels: first, adopt a risk parity strategy suitable for domestic assets, and try to distribute risks evenly to bonds and stocks; second, low volatility and high dividends are both long-term effective factor strategies; third, qualitative and quantitative tactical asset allocation, top-down analysis of policies and the current market's driving force on prices, find out where the market has misjudged, and explore investment opportunities; fourth, a mature target risk management system.

Li Jiachun, investment manager of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, talked about the application of "systematic active investment" in financial products. The logic of systematic investment in stock research is very similar to that of fundamental investment. Most of the investment signals of the strategy are centered around the company's fundamentals and valuation, two driving factors of stock prices.

Li Jiachun said that this strategy focuses on three issues when designing investment signals: first, whether the company has strong fundamentals; second, which companies are supported by positive market sentiment; and third, which companies are in line with current macroeconomic policies. For example, after the release of the new "Nine National Policies" this year, investment opportunities such as high-quality development that are in line with macroeconomic policies have received attention.

Editor: Captain

Review: Chen Mo

Copyright Notice

"China Fund News" enjoys the copyright to the original content published on this platform. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited, otherwise legal liability will be pursued.

Contact person for authorized reprint cooperation: Mr. Yu (Tel: 0755-82468670)