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Cailianshe News, July 22 (Reporter Yan Jun)Before the opening of the market on July 22, the central bank launched a big move, and the OMO (open market reverse repurchase operation rate) and LPR (loan market benchmark rate) interest rates were lowered in a linked manner. The interest rate cut came earlier than market expectations, and the subsequent opening of A-shares became a highlight.

The market opened in the morning, and the structural market was obvious.DividendsFor investors with strategy, CNOOC, China Yangtze Power and bank stocks all fell, and some investors joked that "how can the interest rate cut have the effect of raising interest rates on dividends"; however, for growth stocks such as information and chips, it can be said that it was a long-awaited rain, and investors finally waited for "high cutting low".

The grand narrative about the logic of rising dividends and high dividends is still ringing in our ears, but the pullback has already taken place?

In fact, dividends have entered a volatile phase since April. The dividend index reached its highest point of the year on April 22 this year. As of July 22, the range fell by 9.95%.

Looking at the Dividend Low Volatility Index, the downward range is more than a month later than the Dividend Index. From May 29 to July 22, the decline was also 9.2%.

Are dividends and high dividends overvalued? Investors are arguing again

As a sector with a good profit effect this year, dividend funds have achieved remarkable results in terms of scale and profitability in the second quarter. According to data disclosed in the second quarter report, the total scale of dividend strategy funds is close to 170 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% from the beginning of the year; in terms of performance, as of July 19, 60% of the dividend-themed funds in the market have achieved positive returns this year.

However, the YYDS (banks, operators, power, oil and coal) market has been differentiated. The coal sector adjusted first, banks have collectively set new highs recently, and power is also relatively strong. However, after the opening of the morning, Yangtze Power once fell nearly 3%, and the market debate on dividends and high dividends followed.

Some investors believe that the risk of dividends comes from the risk of watching the market every day. Taking CNOOC as an example, capital expenditure is low, and profits are released after depreciation, so dividend growth is certain. To buy dividends, one must have a long-term perspective and look not at the funds traded on the exchange, but at the off-exchange low-risk preference funds.

Some investors also said that buying dividends and high dividends for risk aversion was a result of public opinion fermented by the grand narrative of "Japan's lost thirty years." From the perspective of short-term trading, dividends and high dividends are already at high levels. As important conferences release the importance of the technology industry, short-term funds need to deploy technology on dips, that is, buy high and cut low.

Some investors also said that the sector's correction of nearly 10% meant that the funds that had been grouped together had left, and it would be difficult to see recovery in the short term.

Why did dividend and high-dividend assets fall? Market analysts said there may be two reasons:

First, the recent sluggish market turnover will inevitably compress the space for the "technology + high dividend" dumbbell strategy, and high dividend assets are mostly large-cap stocks, and the current funding situation is insufficient to support their continued upward movement.

The second is to reflect the trading structure of U.S. stocks. Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased recently. The "Seven Sisters" of technology stocks that were previously grouped together in the market have continued to adjust recently, while the Russell 2000 index representing small and medium-sized stocks has once soared.

Raised fundsAre you flocking to dividends and high dividend stocks?

Recently, the focus of public offerings on dividends and high dividends has been debated. Another interesting view is that there are already dividend-themed funds that are suspected of being "liquidated", which proves that the dividend track is crowded. Recently, GF CSI Dividend 100 ETF disclosed an announcement that the fund's net asset value was less than 50 million yuan for 40 consecutive working days, triggering the termination of the "Fund Contract". However, this liquidation speculation has been reversed.

On July 22, GF Fund announced that it would hold a general meeting of holders to review and amend the termination clause of the fund contract. An industry insider said that the company is still optimistic about the long-term development space of related products, but in the short term, due to market adjustments, the small scale of products faces survival difficulties. At the same time, in order to avoid liquidation at a low market level affecting the interests of holders, the company decided to hold a general meeting of holders to cancel the automatic liquidation clause.

What are the holdings of public funds in dividend assets? The just released second quarter report provides the answer.

As the underlying asset of the new era, high dividends are still in the process of continuous allocation. According to the research data of the Xingzheng Strategy Team, in the second quarter of this year, the allocation ratio of active equity funds in the utilities, banks and coal sectors increased by 0.61%, 0.31% and 0.17% respectively.

Eight of the top ten industries with the highest dividend yields were overweighted, reflecting the increasing importance of dividend yields to public funds. Although holdings have increased slightly, the overweight ratio is still low.From the perspective of over-allocation ratio, the over-allocation ratio of the Dividend Low Volatility Index and the CSI Dividend Index constituent stocks held by equity funds fell by 0.63% and 0.91% to -3.72% and -4.84%, respectively, which were at the percentile levels of 20.5% and 25.6% in the past decade.

Active equity funds' dividendsAdding to your positionThe proportion does not seem to be enthusiastic. Taking public utilities as an example, public funds increased their allocation to electricity by 0.55% in the second quarter, but active adjustments by funds only contributed 0.06%.

In addition, Huatai Strategy Research believes that public funds have made significant progress in dividends in the second quarter of this year.PositionFurther improvement, mainly increased holdings of utilities and banks.Lighten upDividends can be observed from two directions. Mainly, the funds that increase their holdings of dividends may mainly come from the internal switching positions of value-oriented funds. Publicly offered funds reduced their holdings of food and beverages and pharmaceuticals and biology in the second quarter of this year, while funds that marginally reduced their holdings of dividends increased their holdings of growth sectors such as communications, and the fund style has drifted.

In fact, public funds all chose to increase their holdings of high-growth technology stocks in the second quarter. The strategy teams of many brokerage firms pointed out that the positions of main board technology stocks increased, while the positions of mass entrepreneurship and innovation decreased. The core of the increase in positions is performance, that is, institutions pay more attention to certainty.

Are funds “cutting high and low”?

The fund’s second quarter quarterly report has just been released. What do fund managers think about dividends?

Zhuang Tengfei, manager of Manulife Market Value Preferred Hybrid Fund, said that long-term stable dividend assets still have long-term revaluation space. Within the dividend, different types of assets are also differentiated. The dominance of the dividend style in the past two years mainly relies on utilities and energy assets, which belong to stable dividend style assets. However, the excess returns of cyclical dividend assets in the financial and cyclical fields in the past two years are not obvious, and they have not overdrawn the power of valuation revaluation. There is still a large revaluation space for long-term stable cyclical dividend assets in the financial cycle field.

The current global investment market is volatile, and dividend assets are no exception. Zhuang Tengfei suggested that investors should focus on two key points: first, focus on global pricing assets; second, attach great importance to physical assets, especially those with high-quality long-term cash flow assets, and cyclical dividend style assets just meet these two requirements. Therefore, investors need to have greater patience and share long-term benefits through a long-term fixed investment model.

Some fund managers also reduced their holdings of dividend assets in the second quarter. Tan Li, fund manager of Harvest Fund, said that they moderately reduced their holdings of some dividend assets, mainly upstream resource assets. The reason is that after several years of continuous growth, the valuation of such assets has become reasonable. To continue to rise, it requires a strong assumption about commodity prices. From the perspective of investment cost-effectiveness, the attractiveness has declined.

Securities analysts do not deny the short-term "high cutting low", but high-dividend assets are still resilient. After the adjustment, it is another time to layout.

A chief strategist of a brokerage firm said that structurally, the current market transactions are still biased towards gaming, and the continuous "high-low cutting" has become the most important trading feature. First, the overseas market pricing has swung back after the expectation of a preemptive interest rate cut, which is reflected in the fluctuations of the large-cap technology and gold; second, the high dividend stocks represented by the CSI Dividend Total Income, which are at a high level in the domestic market, have also fluctuated (the core varieties of high dividend stocks are still bubbling upward).

"If the essence of the trend is to hold together, then the essence of high-low cutting is to rush ahead." The chief strategist pointed out,It should be noted that the front-running is based on expectations rather than reality, and a "pricing swing after a front-running transaction" may occur at any time, which means the possibility of switching again after cutting high and low.