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the year 2025 is of pivotal significance for nasa’s future planning and its blueprint for expanding human activities in low earth orbit. this is the first time in decades that nasa is facing the possibility that at least one astronaut will not be able to fly around the earth in the future.

in the coming months, nasa will finalize its strategy for operating in low earth orbit after 2030. then, by the end of next year, nasa will join hands with one or more private companies to sign a cooperation agreement and commit to the research and development of small space stations. by then, nasa and other space agencies will become customers of these space stations rather than operating entities.

however, these plans are shrouded in uncertainty. as nasa transitions from long-term operation of the international space station to a new field, many challenges will follow. the most critical of these is whether nasa really needs to continue to maintain a presence in low-earth orbit, especially as the agency has shifted its focus to the artemis program and is committed to lunar exploration.

rendering of the first axiom habitable module docked to the international space station

microgravity research remains vital

nasa deputy administrator pam melroy made it clear in an interview that the answer to the question of whether nasa needs to continue to exist in low-earth orbit is absolutely yes.

"we have a responsibility to tell our story as best we can because i think many people don't realize the close connection between low-earth orbit and the artemis program, the exploration of the moon and mars, and future human space exploration," she stressed. . i hope to help you gain a deeper understanding of why our efforts in this area are critical.”

in recent years, nasa has successfully supported four astronauts working on the space station at the same time, fully exploring the scientific potential of the orbiting laboratory. this not only promotes basic research in microgravity environments, but also provides in-depth exploration of the health effects of humans staying in space for long periods of time.

"our microgravity research is not done yet," melroy said. "while we have understood the risks of a one-year space mission, we must continue to work to find mitigations for a trip to mars that may last two or three years." measures and solutions are crucial.”

the same idea applies to the life support system, which nasa calls eclss. on the space station, nasa has pushed water circulation and other key technologies to achieve 95% or 97% efficiency. however, for long-term missions to mars and other distant locations, these technologies must achieve 100% or close to 100% efficiency.

in august this year, nasa released a draft of the microgravity strategy, which aims to formally establish research and technology development goals for low earth orbit in 2030 and beyond, and clarify the capabilities required to achieve these goals. melroy revealed that a final version of the document is expected to be completed by the end of this year after gathering feedback from the aerospace community.

nasa's needs in low earth orbit will set the stage for a critical second phase of the agency's commercial space station program.

will anyone really build a commercial space station?

three years ago, nasa awarded contracts worth between $125 million and $160 million to blue origin, nanolax, and northrop grumman, marking the official start of preliminary work on the commercial space station project. start up. in addition, axiom space also received $140 million in funding a year ago. however, these companies have encountered varying degrees of challenges when implementing nasa's "commercial leo destinations" (cld) program.

some bidders for the cld scheme are already facing difficulties. axiom space, for example, is in deep financial trouble and has repeatedly delayed the launch of its space station module. northrop grumman announced its withdrawal, citing its failure to achieve expected goals in its business plan. the company then joined a team led by voyager space that acquired nanolax.

the manner in which the “request for proposal” is issued for the second phase of the cld plan will have a significant impact on subsequent development. this phase of the plan is expected to be released next year. commercial companies have expressed concerns about the amount of funding available and the specific requirements of nasa. at the same time, new players such as vast space and spacex, as well as other potential suppliers, may also join the competition. nasa plans to award two contracts to promote competition, but that decision has not yet been finalized.

rendering of voyager space’s interstellar lab space station

a core problem facing nasa is that not all companies involved in the construction of commercial space stations are guaranteed to be profitable. although axiom once attracted much attention, its financing path was quite difficult. although axiom has reached the milestones stipulated in the contract, blue origin does not seem to be fully committed to the program, but has chosen to wait and see, waiting for clarity on the funding scale of the next phase of the cld program.

voyager space has gained some attention with its good international partnerships, but its strength in commercial space station construction has not yet been fully verified. vast space is also attracting attention, but it is unclear whether its space station design can meet nasa's specific requirements. as for spacex, which owns starship, it is even more difficult to predict. according to people familiar with the matter, the cld program is not a top priority for spacex because the company already has many matters to deal with on the starship project.

for nasa, deputy administrator melroy admitted that the agency is actively seeking assistance from many commercial suppliers. she said nasa may require basic operations in 2030 and then seek broader service support from private space stations.

melroy further pointed out: "we realize that it may take longer to get to the ultimate goal. perhaps by 2030, we will only get a minimum viable product, and all our needs or expectations may take longer it will only take time, so we can take a phased approach and move forward step by step.”

does nasa really care about commercial space stations?

by analyzing the white house's budget request for the cld program versus the actual funds allocated by congress, we can gain some assessment of nasa's prioritization of the program and the level of congressional support for the program. here’s a comparison of funding requested and received by the program since its inception in fiscal 2019, with data from the planetary society:

fiscal year 2019: nasa requested $150 million, but congress allocated only $40 million

fiscal year 2020: the request amount remains unchanged at $150 million, but the allocation is reduced to $15 million

fiscal year 2021: requests remain at $150 million, with allocations slightly increased to $18.1 million

fiscal year 2022: applications drop to $101 million, but allocations unexpectedly increase to $102.1 million

fiscal year 2023: the application amount increased significantly to us$224 million, and congress fully appropriated us$224.3 million, almost fully meeting nasa’s funding needs.

fiscal year 2024: the amount requested continues to grow, reaching $228.4 million, and congress also fully appropriates $228.4 million

fiscal year 2025: application amount is $169.6 million,

fiscal year 2026: applications increase significantly to $403.4 million, the highest level since the program began

for the first three years of its existence, the project received virtually no funding. "at first, congress almost treated the project as a joke," noted casey dreier, director of space policy at the planetary society. however, in recent years, as people have gradually realized that the international space station is likely to be completed by 2030, with the end of service, congress became more positive about funding the program.

but dreyer said it remains to be seen whether nasa is truly committed to this. although nasa has repeatedly reiterated its desire to maintain a presence in low-earth orbit, it has not yet fully elaborated on the necessity of doing so. geopolitical factors undoubtedly play an important role. if the united states retires the international space station in 2030 and china continues to operate a massive orbiting space station, nasa officials will obviously be sensitive to being seen as lagging behind china.

still, dreher said nasa seems to view the cld project more as an experiment rather than a full commitment to the strategy. a commercial space station would likely require billions of dollars in funding and the commitment of nasa as a long-term customer. however, so far, nasa has not reflected such determination in its budget request.

he said: "it's an experiment worth trying. we have only invested $650 million in the past five years, which is just one year's budget overrun on some projects. so it is interesting to try. but maintaining low earth orbit is existence truly a national priority? because if it were, we wouldn’t treat it so lightly.”

iss’s annual operating expenses are us$3 billion?

when communicating with veterans in nasa and the commercial aerospace field, a common view is that by the end of 2030, when spacex’s unmanned dragon spacecraft leads the international space station into the pacific ocean, the united states may only have one commercial space station as an alternative.

some people have proposed that nasa extend the operation time of the international space station, but this plan faces multiple challenges. the cooperative relationship between the united states and russia has become increasingly tense due to the continuing conflict in ukraine and is difficult to maintain. in addition, some components of the space station will have a service life of more than 30 years, and problems such as cracks may become more serious. at the same time, budget issues cannot be ignored. the annual flight, operation and maintenance costs of the international space station are approximately us$3 billion. if it is borne by private space stations, this cost may be reduced by two-thirds.

crucially, however, delaying the iss's retirement could further undermine the commercial prospects of private space station operators. for companies such as axiom and voyager, uncertainty about the timing of the space station's retirement makes financing more difficult. investors are skeptical about whether nasa really needs these private space stations.

for the above reasons, nasa may terminate the operation of the international space station after six years. so, will nasa be in trouble if it doesn't have a low-earth orbit space station available in the coming months or even years? phil mcalister, nasa's chief official for commercial space affairs, said this may not lead to catastrophic consequences.

“that would be bad, and i don’t want a gap like that,” mcallister said in november 2023, “but if the cld project isn’t ready, that’s what we might be facing. personally, i don't think it's going to be the end of the world. it's not irreversible, especially if it's relatively short-lived. it might have an impact on some research projects, but we can do that with crew dragon and boeing. starliner and other means to mitigate this impact.”

it is worth noting that although mcallister once led the cld project and moved to a senior advisory position at nasa last summer, nasa's official position does not accept such a gap.

can commercial space stations attract more customers?

the cld project and its long-term viability do face many uncertainties. one of the core questions is, is there really a market need for this beyond official astronauts? an influential 2017 report suggested that the answer to this question may be "maybe not." the problem then was similar to today, namely the lack of a “killer app” that would make it profitable for humans to live and work in space.

the report highlights that venture capitalists are extremely uncertain about revenue and cost projections, so they are reluctant to fund the space station until the projected revenues from these space activities show signs of being meaningful. this highlights the market's concerns about the feasibility of cld projects.

nasa hopes to move from an anchor customer to one of many, but the identities and needs of other potential customers are full of uncertainty. while some governments may want to send individuals to these space stations for prestige reasons, and there may be a small group of space tourists interested, the overall demand, its sources, and how much people are willing to pay are not yet clear.

in addition, automated manufacturing in low-earth orbit may also pose a threat to certain potential human activities in space. for example, companies such as varda have demonstrated the ability to conduct drug research in orbit and are working on developing automated spacecraft that can perform manufacturing and research work in microgravity at a cost far lower than crewing aboard a private space station.

at the same time, spacex’s starship is also a factor that cannot be ignored. while the company may not be ready to bid on nasa's formal cld program, the potential to provide short-duration orbital flights to dozens of customers by 2030 is huge if starship begins flying regularly. this could weaken interest in private space stations by providing space tourists with a more attractive, lower-cost option.

so if nasa decides it needs a private space station to succeed, it must commit to supporting private companies. the construction of a space station is a huge, difficult and expensive problem. while nasa isn't seeking another iss-like behemoth, a safe and functional habitat is essential. it's not cheap, and time is of the essence. nasa needs to weigh various factors to ensure the long-term viability of the cld project. (tencent technology specially compiled by jinlu)