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the national association of colleges and employers (nace) releases average starting salaries and job market estimates for recent undergraduate graduates every year, and this year is no exception. according to the nace forecast, there is good news and bad news this year.

while college remains one of the best ways to get a high-paying job, considering expensive tuition and uncertain future earnings prospects, major choice becomes more important.

nace clearly stated thatmajor is a key factor in determining career income.generally,the more technical the major, the higher the earning potential in the job market.this is why students majoring in stem (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) are often more likely to earn higher salaries than students majoring in the humanities and arts.

image source: pexels

in march this year, the american educational research journal published a paper. 3 scholars from new york university and rutgers university,a cost-benefit analysis of returns to college and 10 majors by digging into income data for nearly 6 million americans, the results found that for three major majors, the return on education did not increase with time, and even showed a downward trend.

as for majors that were originally considered to have high returns, competition for jobs has become increasingly fierce amid the rapid changes in the labor market.

study finds 'investment' in universities

higher return than investing in stock market

u.s. undergraduate enrollment has been declining in recent years, from 24.8 million in 2011 to 21.8 million in 2019 to 20.3 million in 2022.

image source: statista

the downward trend in college enrollment, while exacerbated by the covid-19 pandemic, also reflects the tendency of more young people to enter the workforce directly after high school, with uncertainty about the economic value of a college degree likely to be a major driver.

in 2023, a wall street journal norc poll showed that56% of americans believe a four-year college degree is not worth the cost. respondents aged 18 to 34 (the most likely to go to college) are the most skeptical of its value, with 61% having a negative view.

one obvious reason is that college is too expensive.

over the past decade, american universities have become more and more expensive.average tuition fees at private not-for-profit universities rose from $40,955 in the 2013/14 academic year to $56,190 in the 2023/24 academic year, an increase of approximately37%。and the tuition fees of well-known private universities are far more than that.

image source: statista

according to cnn,starting this fall, undergraduate tuition and fees at some new england universities will exceed the $90,000 mark.

in addition to private universities, public universities are also facing the problem of rising tuition fees.out-of-state tuition to attend public 4-year colleges increases from 2011/12 to 2023/2432%, in-state tuition increases31%。

families that cannot afford the tuition fees can only let their children settle down and study in community colleges with low tuition fees. after waiting for two years of study, graduates can choose to graduate directly to make a living, or they can save the country and transfer to a four-year university to continue their studies. juniors and seniors.

however, even so, there are still some students who have to give up midway due to family financial difficulties.

not to mention the increase in expenses, workplace income is still decreasing.

according to cnbc statistics, the average annual salary of graduates of 2023 is lower than that of graduates of 2010nearly $9,000. although the national association of colleges and employers (nace) predicts that the salary of graduates of 2024 will increase,however, compared with last year, the job market open to fresh undergraduates will shrink by 5.8%.

image source: cnbc

in fact, a 2023 survey found that more than half of americans believe that college now feels more like a gamble that may not pay off.

so, is it a good deal to go to work directly without going to college?

in order to answer this question, three scholars from new york university and rutgers university school of education collected community survey data from the u.s. census bureau from 2009 to 2021.5.8 million americans (2.9 million with a bachelor’s degree, 2.9 million with a high school diploma)conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the financial situation.

they not only considered income but also weighed the costs associated with earning a degree, including tuition, potential lost income by not entering the workforce earlier, and financial aid that might offset some of the costs.

the result is obvious,despite rising tuition, college graduates have significant earning advantage。

by comparison, the average stock market return for the s&p 500 over the past 50 years has been7.58%。“on average, a college degree has higher returns than the stock market."the study co-author,new york universityprofessor zhang liang of higher education said.

several researchers also pointed out thatbecause the cost of college education is rising faster than the income of graduates, it is true that the overall return on college education has declined slightly (-0.5%).

however, choosing a major seems to be a more attractive issue than whether to go to college.

the gap in return rates among different majors will continue to widen

return rates for popular majors remain strong

after in-depth analysis of the income gap between college graduates and high school graduates in the same percentage position in 10 different majors, researchers found a different picture.

there is no suspense that several popular majors still rank at the top of the list of return rates.

interestingly, though, for most majors, returns increase as the earnings distribution for men and women moves upward. however, three majors are at odds with this trend:education, engineering and health.

this means,graduates of education, engineering, and health majors can earn more stable incomes than other majors, but it is difficult to reach the top of the income distribution over time.

in other words, as returns decline, top earners in these majors don't see their incomes grow as fast as those of their high school equivalents.

in contrast,, students who specialize in math, computer science, and business fields and acquire scarce skills earn more over time after graduation.moreover, such high-paying majors tend to show greater resilience during economic recessions, which will further exacerbate the income gap between different majors.

from this point of view, the saying "if you learn mathematics, physics and chemistry well, you will have no fear of traveling around the world", it is true.

the researchers pointed out thatas technology advances and skill requirements shape, today's young people may find themselves in a very different labor market in the coming years.powerful artificial intelligence tools, such as chatgpt and other large language models, will accelerate the replacement of routine and repetitive jobs, and some college graduates may face the dilemma of finding a job.

from the perspective of supply and demand, the expansion of computer science majors in many universities and the decline in enrollment rates of humanities and social science majors in recent years are all in order to adapt to changes in labor demand in different occupations. although it is difficult to accurately predict the evolution of the future labor market, the popularity of artificial intelligence technology will greatly increase the demand for quantitative abilities and advanced technologies, thus continuing to exacerbate the income gap between different majors.

however, this does not mean that the humanities are about to usher in the “end”.in fact, more and more positions are incorporating ai skills, and combined with cross-professional capabilities, the empowering effect is emerging.

"these trends are likely to continue and prospective students should carefully consider their choice of majors.find a balance between personal interests and financial pragmatism.”professor zhang addeddao, “choosing a major with a high return on investment is a wise financial decision, but at the same time, if a student decides to pursue a major with a lower return on return,additional training or further education may be considered to improve their prospects in the labor market.”

top universities still have market appeal

but it may not be the employer’s first choice

although for the sake of "money future", it is a safe decision to choose majors with high returns, but this does not mean that graduates of these majors can find high-paying jobs.

in fact, today's graduates of computer science majors, which have been highly popular in the past decade, are beginning to feel the coldness of the market, and many are finding that finding a job is much more difficult than they imagined.

on the one hand, due to the rapid development of the technology industry, many universities in the united states have expanded their enrollment of computer science students in recent years.according to the u.s. department of education, the number of computer and information science students has increased by 40% in 5 years, reaching more than 600,000 by 2023.

image source: forbes

pierce avner, a junior majoring in computer science at the university of colorado, revealed that he applied for hundreds of internships online last year, but most received no response. for those who responded, many received rejection letters within 15 seconds to 1 minute.

this year, he submitted more than 20 internship applications again, but still no news. in the end, he found an internship with an aerospace company only through his fraternity alumni association.

on the other hand, tech giants that were aggressively expanding just a few years ago have less need for entry-level employees.

tim herbert, chief research officer at trade group comptia, said that although big tech companies still need computer science graduates, their current needs are moving closer to artificial intelligence.fresh undergraduate graduates often do not have the experience required for many of these positions.

“new graduates may need to adjust their expectations, including where they would like to work, the salary, benefits or signing bonus they would accept, and the type of company they would like to work for.”

alex giang, a computer science student at cornell university who just completed his junior year, is currently doing a software engineering internship at a digital advertising company. previously, he had submitted internship applications to well-known technology companies such as uber, airbnb, tesla, meta, apple and amazon, but all ended in failure.

jarin rahman, a classmate of alex’s major, is currently interning at a real estate investment management company. she revealed that many seniors who interned at big technology companies last year did not receive return offers.

in a job market with oversupply, employers’ preferences have also changed subtly.

in april this year, forbes conducted a survey and found that among corporate recruitment leaders:

a school's reputation remains important, but it is not set in stone.matt sigelman, president of the burning glass institute, a think tank in philadelphia, said: "when hiring managers see elite colleges, they will think that the academic standards, selection standards, etc. of the college are high, even though they know these are not good measures of a person's job performance. indicators, but without much other information, hiring managers can only screen candidates based on school.”

the rise of online interviews during the epidemic has changed this pattern.

in the past, many companies carried out offline recruitment, and the scope was limited to their own surroundings. but online interviews have expanded their recruitment scope as never before, and everyone has begun to recruit graduates from universities that they had never cared about before.

as matt sigelman said, harvard has a limited number of graduates and all graduates are considered academically gifted, whereas at large state universities only the best students in the class are considered equally academically gifted. but now everyone is starting to really change this view.

the founder of a company in california said that he is reluctant to hire graduates with little work experience, even if they have ivy league diplomas.on the contrary, graduates from universities that offer many career experience-related programs will be more attractive.

some companies said,outstanding employees tend to change their perceptions of lesser-known schools, prefer to recruit graduates from the same school as employees. new alumni networks are quietly being established.

and big companies like pricewaterhousecoopersthere is also a need for a diverse workforce, which also objectively promotes their diverse sources of employees.

and visionary graduates have also expanded their sights beyond technology company giants like meta or google.

“i see more and more students focusing on companies that focus on technology as a service rather than a product,” said stephanie johnson, director of career development for the computer science major at the university of north carolina.if you look away from technology companies, there are still many choices.”

the university of virginia holds a grand technology industry campus job fair every year, attracting many well-known technology companies to select talents. this year, the school has broadened the coverage of this event, not only in the technology field, but also covering companies in the medical, energy, financial services and other industries, because companies in these fields are also recruiting for technical positions.

according to estimates from the national association of colleges and employers (nace),compensation for computer science graduates this year is about $75,000, the highest among all industries but the smallest increase (+2.7%).

image source: nace

wang hequn, a ph.d. in educational testing from michigan state university, also worked in ""the article put forward several suggestions for chinese students, but they are always inseparable from one central idea:cost-effectiveness does not depend on the ratio between graduation salary and study abroad fees, but on students' plans and arrangements for the future.

in particular, industries with strong technical and high return rates often require advanced studies to the master's and doctoral level, and abundant scientific research and high-tech industry resources will reveal obvious advantages.

in the context of the current industry recruitment market gradually shrinking, even for those majors with high returns, the future development trend seems to point to the path of further education.

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