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shendu丨a-share turnover exceeded 7 trillion in five days. what are institutions buying?

2024-10-03

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stimulated by a series of favorable policies, a-shares have recently experienced a strong rebound. the market started on september 24, 2024, and continued until the trading day before national day on september 30. wind data shows that during this period, the shanghai composite index rose by a cumulative 21.37%, and the total a-share transaction volume was approximately 7.4 trillion yuan. the non-bank financial industry represented by the securities industry has become an institutional fund (according to wind standards: individual a transaction with a transaction volume of more than 1 million yuan is the key buying object of institutional funds, the same below).
especially on september 30, a-share trading volume reached 2.59 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record. on that day, in the ranking of institutional fund purchases, non-bank finance ranked first among all industries with 55.9 billion yuan.
wind data shows that within the five trading days from september 24th to 30th, in the ranking of a-share and hong kong stock institutional fund purchases, the non-bank financial industry ranked first.
during this period, in the a-share market, the non-bank financial industry increased by 34%, ranking fifth in the industry after the media, beauty care, food and beverage, and computer industries. during the same period, in the hong kong stock market, non-bank financial services increased by 33%, ranking fourth in the industry growth list.
behind the large-scale entry of institutional funds, in addition to the expectations for better performance brought about by the rebound in the market, there are also policies such as high-level guidance to vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and to open up the market congestion points such as social security funds, which has opened up the industry's business space. in addition, the potential wave of mergers and acquisitions by securities firms also gives investors room for imagination.
from the perspective of individual stock capital flows, in this round of rebound, in addition to securities companies, liquor and real estate are also sought after by institutional funds.
from september 24th to 30th, among the top ten companies bought by a-share institutional funds, three liquor companies, led by kweichow moutai (600519.sh), were on the list.
why do institutions buy liquor companies? "on the one hand, the liquor sector experienced a sharp correction in the early stage due to weakening financial attributes and weak consumer demand. the traditional liquor consumption peak is approaching the golden week holiday, which has received obvious support under the stimulation of financial policies." director of chanson capital shen meng told caijing, "on the other hand, liquor stocks, especially the top stocks, are index constituents. when policies promote the rise of the capital market, they are a necessary starting point, so they also receive key allocations of institutional funds."
in addition, the real estate industry in the a-share market has increased by 32%, stimulated by a series of favorable policies, and has also received buying from institutional funds.
securities stocks favored by institutions
in this round of stock market rebound that started on september 24, institutional funds took the lead in deploying the securities industry.
wind data shows that on september 30, in shenwan’s secondary industry classification, the top three industries with institutional buying volume were non-bank finance, electronics, and computer industries, all exceeding 30 billion yuan. among them, the non-bank financial industry ranked first with a purchase volume of 55.9 billion yuan.
looking at the extended cycle, from september 24th to 30th, the top three industries with institutional buying volume were non-bank finance, computers, and electronics industries, with buying volumes exceeding 70 billion yuan each. among them, non-bank finance topped the list with institutional buying volume of 134.1 billion yuan, which was about 52.4 billion yuan higher than the second-ranked computer industry.
in terms of hong kong stocks, non-bank financial services also ranked first among various industries in terms of institutional buying volume. wind data shows that from september 24 to 30, among the institutional purchases of hong kong stocks, the purchases of institutions in the non-bank financial, banking, and media industries were 12.9 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan, and 9.3 billion yuan respectively, ranking first. top three.
during the same period, among the a-share non-bank financial industries, the securities industry ranked first with institutional purchases of 102.5 billion yuan, which was approximately 5.34 times that of the insurance industry.
during this period, the a-share securities industry rose by 39%, and the share price of oriental fortune (300059.sz), the leading riser, rose by 89%; the hong kong stock securities industry rose by 53%.
in this round of a-share rebound, the brokerage sector has been favored by funds. in addition to the positive performance expectations brought about by the rebound, it is also inseparable from the recent introduction of high-level policies.
on september 26, the political bureau meeting of the cpc central committee pointed out that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the congestion points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market.
on the same day, the central financial office and the china securities regulatory commission jointly issued the "guiding opinions on promoting medium- and long-term capital entry into the market" (hereinafter referred to as the "guiding opinions"). the main content includes three major measures: building and cultivating a capital market ecosystem that encourages long-term investment; vigorously developing equity public funds support the steady development of private securities investment funds; efforts are made to improve supporting policies and systems for the entry of various medium and long-term funds into the market.
the main goal of the "guiding opinions" is to promote a significant increase in the scale and proportion of medium- and long-term capital investment after a period of hard work, so that medium- and long-term capital can better play a leading role, the development of both investment and financing ends is more balanced, and the functions of the capital market can be better exerted. new situation.
some securities firms pointed out that the "guiding opinions" are the latest component of the "1+n" policy system of the new "nine national articles". its core logic and content are consistent with article 7 of the new "nine national articles" which "vigorously promotes the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and continues to grow." long-term investment power" corresponds to. "in the future, we are optimistic about the growth potential brought by the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market for securities companies' asset management, brokerage business, and institutional business, and the vigorous development of equity public funds will open up business space for the wealth management business of securities companies."
previously, on september 24, pan gongsheng, governor of the central bank, stated at a press conference of the state council information office that for the first time, the central bank has created structural monetary policy tools to support the capital market. one of them is the swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, which supports eligible securities, funds, and insurance companies to use their own bonds, stock etfs, and csi 300 constituents as collateral to exchange for treasury bonds and central bank bills from the central bank. for highly liquid assets, this policy will significantly increase relevant institutions’ access to funds and stock holdings. the funds obtained by institutions through this tool can only be used to invest in the stock market.
pan gongsheng revealed that the scale of the first phase of swap convenience operations is 500 billion yuan, and the scale will be expanded in the future depending on the situation.
hou dawei, an investment banker, told caijing that the central bank's 500 billion yuan swap plan is good for big finance and most obviously for the securities industry. this is also one of the main factors for the securities industry to attract market funds recently.
different from the a-share market, among the purchases of non-bank financial institutions in hong kong stocks, the insurance, diversified finance, and securities industries ranked top three, with purchase amounts of 7.5 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively.
real estate and liquor are also considered
in this round of a-share rebound, in addition to securities, real estate and liquor companies have also become the main targets of institutional pursuit.
from the perspective of individual stock capital flows, from september 24th to 30th, among the top ten companies in the a-share institutional buying amount, a total of three companies in the liquor industry were on the list, ranking first in each industry. among them, kweichow moutai, wuliangye (000858.sz), and luzhou laojiao (000568.sz) ranked second, sixth, and tenth respectively. in the securities industry, orient fortune and citic securities (600030.sh) ranked first and fourth respectively.
among them, the liquor industry ranked first among all food and beverage subsectors with a 40% increase. luzhou laojiao ranked first in the liquor industry with a 46% increase, while wuliangye and kweichow moutai both increased by more than 38%.
on september 30, among the top ten companies with a-share institutional purchases, there were three securities companies and two liquor companies. among them, oriental fortune, kweichow moutai, and citic securities ranked the top three with institutional buying amounts of 11.7 billion yuan, 8.9 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan respectively. wuliangye and huatai securities (601688.sh) ranked sixth and eighth respectively.
from the perspective of tianfeng securities, in terms of the structure of this round of rebound, the securities firms, real estate, liquor and other sectors with the largest gains are all sectors closely related to the daily lives of the people, and residents have relatively little awareness of such sectors. high, which causes the market trends generated by such sectors to easily resonate with residents' funds, thus accelerating the formation of unanimous optimistic expectations.
"with the continuous release of social consumption policy dividends and the implementation of policies to expand domestic demand, the market prospects of liquor as a consumer product for people's livelihood have expanded, thus driving the value return of the liquor sector." cai xuefei, general manager of zhiqu consulting and alcohol analyst
he told caijing that the national day holiday is about to enter, and the banquet and gift market has amplified the demand for holiday alcohol consumption, further stimulating the rise in stock prices.
kweichow moutai, the most expensive a-share stock, recently launched a buyback policy for the first time in 23 years since its listing.
on the evening of september 20, kweichow moutai announced that it planned to use its own funds of 3 billion to 6 billion yuan to repurchase the company's shares through centralized bidding transactions. the company's repurchase price limit is 1,795.78 yuan/share (inclusive), and the repurchased shares will be used to cancel and reduce the company's registered capital.
regarding the purpose of repurchasing shares, kweichow moutai stated that it is to safeguard the interests of the company and investors and enhance investment confidence.
driven by the buyback policy and the rebound of a-shares, the closing price of kweichow moutai rose from 1,261.54 yuan/share on september 23 to 1,748 yuan/share on september 30, an increase of nearly 40%, and the market value returned to 20,000 yuan. billion, the company's latest closing price is only 47.78 yuan/share away from the above-mentioned repurchase price limit.
it is worth noting that vanke a (000002.sz), the leader in the real estate industry, also ranked eighth in the list of institutional purchases from september 24 to 30 with an institutional purchase amount of 7.3 billion yuan. during this period, the company's stock price hit the daily limit three times in a row from september 26th to 30th.
recently, favorable policies for real estate have been introduced intensively. on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee clearly proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market. on the evening of september 29, the central bank announced a reduction in existing mortgage interest rates. that night, shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen announced the relaxation of purchase restriction policies. . a series of policies enabled the real estate sector to rise by 32% in this round of rebound, ranking sixth in the industry.
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