golden week observation｜the spillover effect of the stock market has begun to show, and timely policies have boosted consumption during the golden week
2024-10-03
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two days before the national day holiday, the weather was sunny and the smiles were blooming.
in the scenic spots, tourists smiled, and the number of ticket bookings in guangzhou's major scenic spots increased significantly; in shopping malls, customers smiled, and the awesome "trade-in" discounts made mobile phones and other 3c digital products particularly popular; in restaurants, relatives and friends laughed, and many hotels continued to the waiting area was full of people; the merchants also laughed, the volume and price of various products increased, and the popularity and wealth were steadily rising; the investors also laughed, and some even said that "for the first time, i feel that the holiday is too long." .
“the stock market has soared, stocks have returned their capital, and all the computers they bought have been upgraded.” mr. wu’s family replaced an old computer with the latest one at zhengjia plaza. “with government and business subsidies, it is almost equivalent to a 20% discount, which is very good. a good deal!" mr. wu and his family were very excited.
the market is picking up, expectations are rising, and confidence is restored—everything is what the golden week holiday should be. the recent series of "red envelopes" of economic stimulus policies have ushered in a timely rain during the "golden window period" of the national day holiday. in particular, the stock market "rose" across the board before the holiday, adding fuel to the recovery of people's consumer confidence. a reporter from guangzhou daily visited many places and found that consumption in guangzhou's tourism, catering, beverages, department stores and other sectors is booming, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the economy continues to rebound and improve.
consumer demand "opens"——
on-site: the spillover effect of the stock market is beginning to show, and consumption data is "red"
the stock market has rebounded, and the positive spillover effect on consumer confidence has initially appeared.
"the stocks i bought have gone up, and of course i am in a good mood. today, an old friend came to guangzhou. i invited him to have a meal and have a few drinks. we like the sauce-flavored type, and we will drink this for lunch." mr. chen, a consumer, said in "1919 liquor i bought a bottle of qinghua lang at the tianhe store of "direct supply", and the unit price was 999 yuan.
"originally i didn't plan to go out for fun during the holiday. before the holiday, my family's stocks had almost returned to their original value. we were in a good mood and thought we would just travel and relax." ms. liu from foshan booked an accommodation package in guangzhou chimelong the day before the holiday. 2 days and 1 night includes tickets for 2 adults to enjoy 4 parks and one night's accommodation. children under 3 years old can also enter the park for free. it cost more than 2,500 yuan: "it feels quite worth it!" from the first holiday since the beginning of the day, ticket bookings for major scenic spots in guangzhou have increased significantly. ctrip data shows that on october 1, ticket orders in guangzhou increased by 29% year-on-year. canton tower, chimelong wildlife world, guangzhou chimelong international circus, pearl river night tour, etc. are popular local scenic spots.
guangzhou aquarium
on october 2, the reporter saw at guangzhou jingdong mall in haizhu district that floors with 3c mobile phones, air conditioners, and sweeping machines were busy with people, and many payment windows had long queues. the mall even set up a special "trade-in" payment area. in the 3c digital area, the counters of apple, huawei, oppo, honor, xiaomi and others are quite busy. on the eve of the national day holiday, guangzhou’s 3c product “trade-in” subsidy activity was launched. among them, mobile phones are subsidized by 10% according to the sales price, with a maximum subsidy of 1,000 yuan. this has attracted many guangzhou consumers to “upgrade”. “a mobile phone worth more than 10,000 yuan, it's 1,000 yuan cheaper, and it's really delicious," said mr. li, a consumer. the 3c digital stores in other major business districts in guangzhou, such as tianhuan plaza and zhengjia plaza, were crowded with customers.
the person in charge of guangzhou jingdong mall told reporters that since the launch of "national supplements" in guangzhou on september 3, in-store customer flow has increased by 10% during the week and 20% on weekends, and the overall sales of participating national supplements have increased by more than 60%. especially on september 28, guangzhou launched special subsidies for mobile phones/tablets/smart wearable devices. the overall passenger flow increased by more than 50%, and the stimulation of category sales can be said to be "exponential growth."
business district’s popularity and wealth rise
alcohol sales are a reliable "observation sample" of the recovery of the consumer market. on october 2, a reporter visited and found that during the national day holiday, the price of liquor among guangzhou consumers rose slightly, and citizens’ enthusiasm for buying liquor increased significantly.
"although we sell all kinds of wine in our stores, the most popular one is liquor. last year during the national day holiday, liquor consumption was mainly in the 300-400 yuan price range. this year, during the national day holiday, the price in this range increased slightly, focusing on 500-800 yuan. time." ms. chen, the store manager of the 1919 liquor direct supply tianhe store revealed. the reporter visited liquor stores and supermarkets in the city and found that relatively many consumers went to the stores to buy drinks before meals. "there are many dinner parties during the national day holiday, and the overall consumption of alcohol has increased slightly. it is obvious that consumers are more enthusiastic about buying alcohol."
ms. chen, the store manager of "1919 liquor direct supply" tianhe store, said: "offline consumers generally choose to buy wine before meals, and more before dinner." before he finished speaking, an online order was received in the backend. "there are a lot more home delivery orders during the holidays. there were 30 orders yesterday, 10% more than last year's national day. some customers buy a box." ms. chen told reporters that the sales on the first day of the national day holiday it increased by 10% to 14% year-on-year, and store traffic increased by 10% year-on-year.
the reporter found that some merchants took advantage of the good market to slightly increase the price of popular liquor. a clerk at another liquor chain store in tianhe told reporters that the store's 1,988-yuan wine originally sold for 490 yuan per bottle. it started to rise slightly yesterday and is currently selling for 520 yuan per bottle, an increase of 30 yuan per bottle. “the number of drinks consumed at national day dinner parties has increased, and purchasing power has increased. stores will adjust the prices of hot-selling items.”
e-commerce: “just-in-time consumption” has increased
autumn has begun to appear, and the corresponding "timely consumption" has increased. "early in the morning, i received a courier call saying that the long-sleeved jacket i bought on the platform has arrived." ms. chen, a post-85s white-collar worker, said, "the e-commerce platform continued to deliver goods during the national day holiday. the order i placed on september 30 , i received the goods on the morning of the 1st.”
the growth in online consumption from the first day of the golden week holiday is gratifying. vipshop's sales of children's trousers increased by more than 50% year-on-year, sales of women's jackets increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and sales of children's jackets increased by 81% year-on-year. sales of women's down jackets increased by nearly 80% year-on-year; sales of light sports down jackets increased by more than 75% year-on-year. sales of women's cashmere sweaters increased by more than 35% year-on-year; sales of women's cotton-padded clothes increased by 35% year-on-year.
many consumers "stock up" on e-commerce platforms before traveling during the golden week holiday. vipshop data shows that since late september, sales of disposable travel supplies have increased by 27% year-on-year. in addition, sales of travel-related disposable underwear, disposable shoe covers, etc. have increased by more than 30% year-on-year. sales volume of tourist maps increased by 22% year-on-year. travel clothing is also a focus of consumers' attention. since late september, vipshop's sales of jackets have increased by 29% year-on-year, sales of sun protection clothing have increased by 84% year-on-year, sales of sports polo shirts have doubled year-on-year, and sales of children's sports shoes have increased by more than 34% year-on-year.
supply-side innovative consumption experience upgrade——
"as soon as many of our stores in the city open in the morning, many out-of-town diners come and line up in front of the door. the company has specially added a large number of manpower to provide services." taotaoju brand manager wang lei told reporters. during this year's national day holiday, many catering stores have resorted to "smart tricks": giving away haircuts with meals, and giving away national day-limited creative snacks to the first 10 people who dine every day...
the national day holiday coincides with the trial opening of taotaoju chen's ancestral hall store. the first batch of tea customers were already full when it opened at 8 a.m., and more than 100 waiting tables were quickly dispatched. the old store on taotaoju shifu road is equally lively. yesterday, the reporter arrived at the store at 13:00. the waiting area in the lobby of the store was crowded, and the waiting area was already full of people. there are both local neighbors and out-of-town diners with suitcases in tow, making it very lively. “when we came to guangzhou this time, we chose to stay in a b&b in liwan because we wanted to fully experience the local culture and customs. we went to shamian and yongqingfang, and taotaoju was also a must-have for us during this trip. we have already heard that it is a century-old brand. it has been renovated and renovated before. i have been looking forward to it for a long time." lin xue, a post-95s generation from chenzhou, hunan, was waiting for a seat with her friends.
some restaurants in guangzhou were packed with guests
at the guangzhou restaurant on longjin west road, the reporter saw even diners with suitcases coming to the store to eat. "because i had to change hotels, i simply brought my luggage to eat. we booked the 'elephant flamingo' and saw on little red book that guangzhou is currently having a 'snack season' and there are limited snacks for the national day, so we made a special trip to try it. , i didn’t have enough time to check out the 11 items, so i picked the one i was most interested in to try,” ms. xie, a tourist from shantou, told reporters. on the large led screen in the restaurant, promotions related to the "dim sum season" are being played. many diners stopped to watch. according to guangzhou restaurant, the store's revenue on the first day of golden week increased by more than 10% month-on-month, and customer traffic increased by more than 15% month-on-month. the first "young city dim sum season" has brought significant results.
"wow, what a surprise!" elina lescuka, an international student from latvia, exclaimed when she saw the "elephant flamingo" in guangzhou restaurant. this was the first time she had seen elephant desserts.
after learning about the "young city dim sum season", she and her classmate carolina maria baake from the netherlands made a special trip to the guangzhou restaurant on longjin west road to "check in." "the skin is crispy and very delicious." after taking the picture, carolina couldn't wait to try it. "elephant flamingo" is the most majestic work among the 11 national day creative snacks. the elegant "flamingos" stand on the lake, just like the important economic and cultural buildings in tianhe district, scattered among them. the prosperous land means "a hundred birds paying homage to the phoenix, and a hundred blessings reaching perfection". the inspiration for this product comes from tianhe. this pastry is not only lifelike in shape, but also quite advanced in craftsmanship. it combines traditional fillings with innovative dough shaping techniques, making it both beautiful and delicious.
"three flavors of shrimp, fish and crab, original price 188 yuan/person, special discount price 88 yuan/person" "diandude members can enjoy 12.2% off furuixiang raw jade radish at designated stores in guangzhou"... this national day holiday, it's just right as guangzhou opens its first dim sum season, the reporter visited and found that the restaurants linked to this newspaper have launched national day creative dim sum discounts to attract diners to taste them. panxi restaurant, a well-established garden restaurant, even provides “early samples” of the national day creative snack cigu cake to the top ten diners who come to the restaurant every day.
according to haidilao guangzhou jiahe jinbo tiandi plaza store manager fan huaye, on the first day of the golden week holiday, the store's order volume exceeded 100 tables. in order to attract diners to shop during the national day holiday, various catering brands frequently come up with strange strategies. haidilao hengfu international store in foshan, guangdong even provides a "haircut service." one citizen laughed and said, "you spend one price and get two services. you can eat and have your hair washed and haircut at the same time. this experience is perfect."
interpretation and expectations——
interpretation: this golden week is full of gold content
regarding the "gold content" of this national day golden week, ou jiangbo, director of the institute of economics of the guangzhou academy of social sciences, described it as "unprecedented policy intensity, enhanced confidence, and predictable market improvement." the most intuitive feeling is that the popularity of some real estate properties is increasing. " there are also many friends who have taken the initiative to call to discuss the situation of the property market, and have even talked about the choice of specific real estate projects, which shows that more people have clear goals and intentions for buying a house.”
ou jiangbo believes that the recent continuous policy intensification is a comprehensive policy optimization focusing on monetary policy, which is truly changing people's expectations for the economic situation. taking the real estate market as an example, "the real estate market is transitioning from a 'down market' to a 'bottom' stage. this is a sign of a turning point," ou jiangbo said. "the trend of the real estate market will not be a simple 'v' shape. 'reversal,' but first 'bottoming' and then entering the 'rising' stage. "since the real estate industry plays an important role in our country's economy, when the property market gradually recovers with the relaxation of monetary policy, it will increase the demand for real estate, in conjunction with the replacement of old items with new ones. the economic promotion effect of other consumption stimulus policies, financial and real estate policies will be transmitted to the demand side, significantly promoting consumption growth.
multiple properties with many visitors
lin yue, chief analyst of lingyan consulting, said that the country's series of financial measures are timely and powerful. the national day holiday is not only a golden week when people focus on consumption, but also a golden window period when all businesses compete for every inch of land. the stock market and property market are the key to boosting people's confidence. people have seen the dawn of recovery and their desire to consume will inevitably increase. the most direct manifestation is retail and catering, which are closely related to life.
expectation: the economy is expected to have a "long tail" throughout the year
the heating up of china's asset markets, represented by the stock and property markets, is pushing the overall economy and consumption into a positive cycle. the optimistic attitude of many foreign-funded institutions towards the chinese market illustrates this point.
blackrock, the world's largest asset management company, raised its tactical asset allocation to china from "neutral" to "moderately overweight" on september 30. blackrock research reported that the policy signals released by the latest high-level meeting indicate that large-scale fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced. given that chinese stocks trade at deep discounts to developed market equities, this could be a catalyst for investors to reenter the market. morgan stanley said that china's stock market may usher in a more "sustained rebound" in the next stage, driven by a series of stimulus measures and signals announced last week, and not just limited to the recent sharp rise. analysts predict that chinese stocks will rise by at least 10% in the short term, and more in the future. the head of asia cross-asset strategy at barclays bank recently reiterated his bullish view on china's capital market, saying that this round of macroeconomic policy controls will substantially boost china's economic growth in the next two years.
wei jianguo, vice chairman and executive deputy director of the china center for international economic exchanges and former vice minister of commerce, said in an interview with a reporter from guangzhou daily that a series of financial "combination punches" played a role in "coming out of a long drought" to the chinese economy. . "many people have asked me recently, what do i think of china's economic situation this year? i said that this year is china's year of the dragon. i mentioned it at the beginning of the year that china's economy has been a 'dragon raising its head' since the beginning, and now we are "the dragon's tail is rising," and it's not a "little tail," but a "big tail," and our country's annual economic development goals will definitely be achieved," wei jianguo said.
text/guangzhou daily new flower city reporter: chen weiwei, zeng fanying, wen jing, xu xiaofang, zhong dawenphoto/guangzhou daily new flower city reporters: zhuang xiaolong, zeng fanying, wen jing, liu liqinguangzhou daily new flower city editor: mai xiaoying
