zhang guohua | give full play to the "first carriage" role of consumption in economic modernization
2024-10-02
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visual china
the "decision of the central committee of the communist party of china on further comprehensively deepening reform and promoting chinese-style modernization" passed by the third plenary session of the 20th central committee of the communist party of china clearly stated the requirement of "improving the long-term mechanism for expanding consumption" and effectively expanding domestic demand with a focus on boosting consumption.
improving the long-term mechanism for expanding consumption is the need to realize the modernization of the national economy. analyzing the three major demands, the economic growth of all countries around the world is driven by the "troika" of consumption, investment, and net exports, and the "number one carriage" driving national economic modernization is undoubtedly consumer demand. according to world bank statistics, from 1970 to 2023, among the three major needs of major developed modern countries such as the united states, japan, and the united kingdom, final consumer spending accounted for more than 70% of the gross domestic product (gdp) (consumption rate), and the united states and the united kingdom it is more than 80%. since the reform and opening up, especially from 2011 to 2023, consumption has played an increasingly crucial role in driving china's economic growth. my country's consumption rate averages more than 53%, and consumption has become the ballast for stable economic operation. however, my country's consumption rate is more than 10 or even 20 percentage points behind that of modern developed countries. the growth of my country's consumer demand is not strong enough. the consumption potential, vitality and power have not been fully stimulated and exerted. there is still considerable potential for consumer demand to drive china's economic modernization. space.
further expanding consumption is even more urgent and necessary in response to the current situation of major changes unseen in a century. in the face of signs of a resurgence of economic globalization in a certain period of time, in the face of the strengthening regionalization of supply chains, and in the face of uncertain factors such as rising trade protectionism in a few developed countries, we must give full play to the impact of the domestic cycle on the current and future period. the key decisive role in stabilizing growth is to "accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system", improve the long-term mechanism to enhance the "first carriage" of consumption, and form a two-wheel drive of supply and demand, policies and activities to promote consumption development. pattern.
solve the "worries" of residents' consumption
first, "reasonably increase public consumption", vigorously improve the long-term mechanism for improving social security residents' consumption ability, effectively solve the "worry" problem of residents' consumption, and enhance residents' consumption confidence. for a period of time, the average consumption propensity of chinese residents has continued to decline. in some regions and industries, the population's consumption confidence is insufficient. residents' willingness to save has increased, but their fear of consumption has increased. part of the reason is that with the acceleration of my country's aging and low birthrate, consumers' worries have increased, and people's tendency to save for retirement has strengthened. in 2023, china's population over 65 years old will be 217 million, accounting for 15.4%, and it has entered a deeply aging society; 9.02 million people were born that year, and the total population decreased by 2.08 million from the end of the previous year. residents' tendency to save has increased significantly. in the first half of 2024, my country's total rmb deposits increased by another 11.46 trillion yuan, of which household deposits increased by 9.27 trillion yuan. as of the end of june, the balance of household deposits was 147.15 trillion yuan. in the first half of the year, per capita deposits were approximately 104,400 yuan. issues such as medical insurance and social security faced by unemployed young people in urban and rural areas, as well as social security issues such as medical care and pension for rural residents, also deserve attention.
to this end, we can learn from the successful experience of some modern countries, appropriately increase government investment in public services, and follow the "reasonable increase in public consumption", "perfect social security system" and "enhance the balance and accessibility of basic public services" proposed in the "decision". efforts will be made to resolve the outstanding supply and demand problems in education, medical care, elderly care, child care, housing and other fields, strengthen and expand the supply of inclusive non-basic public services, and promote individual residents to "dare to consume". the proportion of government consumption expenditure in gdp in developed countries such as germany, the united kingdom, and sweden has reached about 20%, while in my country it accounts for about 15%, and there is still much room for improvement. we must vigorously deepen reforms in the fields of education, medical care, and social security, strengthen the supporting role of social security, and "strengthen universal, basic, and basic livelihood construction." it is necessary to vigorously increase the level of investment in social insurance, housing security, and compulsory education for migrant children, effectively improve social security and medical insurance systems for flexible employment personnel, migrant workers, people with new employment forms, and unemployed young people, and comprehensively expand social security insurance coverage and improving the level of social security, especially improving the level of critical illness insurance and medical assistance for various groups of people. in response to the problem of low birthrate, we must vigorously increase investment in public services such as basic childbearing, children's medical care, and children's education, and effectively reduce the burden of family childcare and education. in response to the arrival of an aging society, it is necessary to increase government investment in public assistance and elderly care, increase the aging-friendly renovation of residences and buildings, and encourage the development of social assistance and elderly care. the implementation of these tasks and measures will effectively promote urban and rural residents to increase their consumption tendencies. for example, providing peace of mind for elderly care may encourage people to consume with confidence and boldly.
optimize supply to meet residents’ consumption needs
second, optimize and enrich consumer supply, improve the long-term mechanism that leads to the creation of new consumption needs through strong new supply activation, and effectively increase residents' willingness to consume. general secretary xi jinping pointed out as early as 2016, "facts have proved that our country does not have insufficient demand or no demand, but that the demand has changed, but the products supplied have not changed, and the quality and services cannot keep up. insufficient effective supply capacity has caused a large number of 'demand spillover', serious outflow of consumption power."
first, to enhance abundant supply capabilities, we must deepen reforms, "reduce restrictive measures," and strengthen and optimize the supply of new products, new business formats, and new service regulatory systems. for example, for some new products, new business formats, new services, etc., there are still some filing and approval procedures that are not in line with international high-standard rules. some time and system costs are relatively high, which increases the instability of supply innovation expectations. . the development of night economy, terrace economy, etc. must improve the level of refined management and service guarantee. there are also some restrictive policies for consumption such as housing and cars in some cities. in particular, inconvenient and unscientific regulations on driving on roads and choosing parking locations are common in big cities.
the second is to vigorously encourage and protect innovation and "actively promote the launch economy." improve the consistency between our country's standards and international standards, encourage entrepreneurs to open various first stores, debut, debut, and launch various new products, new services, new business formats, and new models to lead the trend of fashion consumption.
the third is to "improve the mechanism for accelerating the diversified development of the daily service industry" and vigorously promote the improvement and expansion of service consumption. in the past ten years, my country's residents' service consumption has grown significantly faster than the average growth rate of consumption during the same period. the growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure has grown at a rate of more than 10% in most years. this year, it is difficult to get tickets for concerts, exhibitions, etc. in some cities. it is necessary to vigorously expand consumption scenarios for the integrated development of business, tourism, cultural and sports exhibitions, and hold festivals where multiple service formats empower each other.
increase residents’ consumption power by increasing income
third, optimize the income distribution pattern and improve the long-term mechanism to improve residents’ consumption power. one of the most important factors affecting spending power is undoubtedly income. first, it is necessary to "increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution", "improve the income distribution and employment system", "increase personal income tax deductions", promote and encourage the expansion of employment for urban and rural residents, and steadily encourage the rural population to transfer employment to cities.
the second is to strive to increase the income of rural residents. looking at urban and rural areas, in 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents will increase by 6.1%, and the average consumption propensity of urban residents will be 60.88%; the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents will increase by 7.6%, and the average consumption propensity will be 81.59%. the growth rate and average consumption propensity of rural residents' consumption expenditure are significantly higher than that of urban residents. promoting increased income of rural residents can better promote consumption. it is necessary to "improve the normalized mechanism to prevent the rural population from returning to poverty and establish a hierarchical and classified assistance system for rural low-income populations and underdeveloped areas." increase the property income of rural residents through multiple channels, and encourage the leasing and stock ownership of properties such as houses and rural land use rights in an orderly manner.
the third is to strengthen the supervision of capital markets, platform economies, etc., and promote the steady growth of residents' related investments, employment and income. for example, we will promote listed companies in the capital market to distribute dividends based on shareholders' equity, strengthen the regulation and guidance of platform-related rates, and ensure reasonable growth in the income of couriers and small, medium and micro business owners.
optimize the consumption environment and enhance residents’ sense of gain
fourth, "improve the comprehensive market supervision capabilities and levels" and improve the long-term mechanism for optimizing and purifying the consumption environment. first, it is necessary to innovate the institutional supply of the consumer market, support the development of new business formats and new models, and adopt an open, inclusive and prudent supervision model. it is necessary to promote reform through opening up, resolutely improve market supervision standards, align with international high-standard economic and trade rules, promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade, improve the quality standard system of goods and commercial services, support the formulation of goods and service standards that are in line with international practice and reflect the highest level, and promote effective the conditions should be as consistent as possible with the high international standards. it is necessary to seamlessly connect domestic market standards with the highest international standards and best levels, which will truly help our country's goods and services improve their international competitiveness in global competition.
the second is to "improve the social credit system and supervision system." mobilize local governments to increase investment in the construction of consumer markets, promote credit consumption, and create a consumer market that brings joy from both near and far. "promote consumption tax collection to be moved back and steadily decentralized to local areas." the consumption tax collection link is likely to change from collection at the place of production to collection at the place of consumption, which will help promote localities to pay more attention to creating a good consumption environment. the consumer market in some places is a mixed bag, and the lack of credit not only infringes on consumers' rights, but also reduces consumers' trust in my country's consumer market and damages the country's international image. we must make great efforts to improve and optimize the market credit environment, explore a modern circulation governance model with business credit as the core, and make integrity the pass for success and breach of trust the epitaph for losers. we must make great efforts to improve the consumer rights protection mechanism, strengthen judicial protection of consumer rights and interests, and implement the main responsibilities of enterprises.
the third is to "improve the convenient system for overseas personnel's entry, residence, medical treatment, payment and other living conveniences." improve the long-term mechanism to attract overseas people to consume in china. for example, we can learn from the experience of consumer centers in some countries such as london, tokyo, new york, paris and other cities. these cities regard attracting chinese consumers as one of the important driving forces for urban prosperity. in some well-known cities such as paris, tokyo, london and new york, it has become standard for brand stores and some shopping malls to be equipped with chinese shopping guides. some stores in frankfurt, tokyo, seoul and other places have chinese logos underneath the products. many shopping malls and specialty stores in europe have installed unionpay card payment swiping systems, tax refunds, etc. there are also people in charge who understand chinese. shanghai and other major cities should further expand the deployment of foreign card payment swipe systems to improve the convenience of using foreign cards. we should actively provide channels for overseas people to seek medical treatment and live in china, connect with overseas insurance institutions or participate in domestic insurance, encourage domestic hospitals to provide appropriate conveniences for overseas people to seek medical treatment, and strive to provide international access for overseas people to travel domestically, participate in exhibitions, performances, etc. management practices.
to implement the spirit of the third plenary session of the 20th central committee of the communist party of china, we must follow general secretary xi jinping’s proposition of “establishing and improving a long-term mechanism to expand residents’ consumption, so that residents can consume with stable income, dare to consume without worries, and have a good consumption environment with a strong sense of gain.” the requirement of "willingness to consume" promotes consumption with confidence, peace of mind, and comfort, and promotes sustained economic prosperity and development.
(the author is a first-level inspector of shanghai municipal commerce commission)
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text: zhang guohua pictures: visual china editor: chen yu editor: yang yiqi
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