news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

china fund news reporter fang li and cao wenjing

under the frequent blows of "policy warm winds", a-shares have experienced a huge rebound!

data shows that after regaining the 3,000-point mark, the shanghai stock exchange index continued to counterattack. on september 30, it even reached 3,300 points, setting a new high in a year. sectors such as computers, power equipment, food and beverages, and non-bank finance have become the vanguard of the rebound.

when the market is strong and counterattacking, how to allocate large categories of assets? which type of assets is more cost-effective? how to judge the overall macroeconomic situation in the fourth quarter? in this regard, a reporter from china fund news interviewed:

gao ying, director of fof investment center of ping an fund

china merchants and hui pension target date 2045 five-year holding period fof fund manager yang yu

dai hongkun, fof fund manager of china minsheng bank

chuangjin hexin ninghe balanced pension target three-year holding period fof fund manager yan biao

these fund managers said that driven by strong policies, the macro economy is expected to improve significantly in the fourth quarter. in terms of asset allocation in major categories, in terms of equity, the price-performance ratio of domestic assets is better than that of overseas markets. with favorable policies, equity assets may recover in valuation due to a reversal in market participants' risk appetite. the short-term bond market may undergo adjustments, but the mid- to long-term winning rate is still high. in addition, strategically focus on the allocation value of gold. pay attention to overseas elections, federal reserve interest rate meetings, exchange rate fluctuations and other uncertain factors.

the macro economy is expected to improve significantly in the fourth quarter

china fund news: recently, a series of favorable policies have been introduced at major meetings, and the major a-share indexes have surged in volume. at this point in time, can you talk about your analysis and judgment of the overall macroeconomic situation in the fourth quarter, and your overall analysis and judgment of the subsequent domestic stock market, bond market, commodities, overseas markets and other major asset allocation markets?

yan biao:looking forward to the fourth quarter, our macroeconomic outlook is positive: on the one hand, against the background of successive reductions in benchmark interest rates and existing mortgage interest rates, domestic real interest rates will decline significantly, financial conditions will significantly improve, and subsequent corporate investment and household consumption will recover; on the other hand, incremental fiscal funds in the fourth quarter are also expected to be implemented and form a physical workload. the shift in monetary policy and the expectation of fiscal policy will make it possible for domestic fundamentals to recover beyond expectations in the fourth quarter.

in terms of allocation of major categories of assets, rmb-denominated equity asset allocation has higher value. from the perspective of pricing factors, on the denominator side, the federal reserve has entered an interest rate cut cycle and domestic loose monetary policies have been implemented one after another; on the numerator side, the u.s. economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, coupled with domestic fiscal efforts, the resonance of the denominator and numerator will form an upward trend for equity assets favorable conditions.

in terms of bond assets, overall, the asset shortage and the downward shift of the mid- and long-term interest rate center will provide the bond market with a winning rate. however, due to short-term trading factors, the space for capital gains in the bond market has narrowed, and the overall odds are not high.

in overseas markets, volatility may increase. in terms of u.s. stocks, higher valuations, uncertainty about the election, and repeated economic data will pose constraints; in terms of u.s. bonds, the market has fully priced in interest rate cut expectations, and a sharp decline in policy interest rates will require an unexpected deterioration in the job market. .

in terms of commodities, we are more optimistic about the allocation value of copper and gold. after sino-u.s. accumulation and u.s. recession pricing, china’s fundamentals are expected to improve significantly in the fourth quarter. we believe that copper’s odds will increase significantly in the fourth quarter; although in the short term, the uncertainty of the path of this round of interest rate cuts is high, the price of gold there may be recurrences around $2,700, but in the long term, gold will benefit from its monetary attributes as the global geopolitical conflict pattern continues and the general trend of de-dollarization occurs.

gao ying:looking forward to the fourth quarter of 2024, my country's economy is expected to show a certain optimism, with gdp growth likely to reach about 5%, mainly due to policy support and investment recovery. although exports are under pressure, domestic demand is expected to be strengthened through the synergy of proactive fiscal and monetary policies.

from an asset pricing perspective, the valuations of major a-share broad-based indexes have mostly fallen to near historical bottoms, and the cost-effectiveness of equity assets continues to be highlighted. at present, fundamental expectations are still the core constraint for the market's stabilization and upward movement. with the implementation of the federal reserve's turn, domestic policy space has further opened up. the key to reversing expectations is still expected to lie in the intensity and direction of domestic policies. at the structural level, taking into account domestic policy orientation and external interest rate cut transactions, it is recommended that priority be given to mapping new productivity and improved external demand.

in addition, the federal reserve has begun an interest rate cut cycle, which has opened up space for domestic monetary policy. at the same time, against the background of high economic uncertainty, the medium- and long-term bond market is still bullish.

commodity prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter, energy prices will be supported by improved supply and demand relations, such as crude oil, natural gas, etc., and industrial metal prices are expected to benefit from the global economic recovery, such as copper, aluminum, etc.

in overseas markets, the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in september. the u.s. economy is expected to continue to remain resilient, although the growth rate may gradually slow down. the gdp growth rate is expected to remain higher than the potential level on a month-on-month basis. the eurozone economy is expected to gradually pick up after experiencing a downturn. emerging markets such as southeast asia and india are also expected to achieve steady growth and attract more international capital inflows. at the same time, the superimposed geopolitical uncertainty and the turmoil of the us dollar credit system will continue to push up the gold price center.

yang yu:since the second quarter, the macroeconomy has shown a weak trend, with exports providing support. however, the overall growth rate of investment and consumption in the direction of domestic demand has slowed down, effective demand is obviously insufficient, and fundamentals are still under pressure. however, the overall policy is currently in a phase of positive and warm policies. at the same time, the focus is gradually focusing on expanding total demand, which is relatively more in line with current macro expectations. in addition, we have observed that the issuance of special bonds has accelerated significantly since the third quarter, and we judge that the reserve for incremental policies may be further improved.

regarding the future trend of major assets: in terms of equity, the price/performance ratio of domestic assets is better than that of overseas markets. the domestic market has experienced continuous adjustments. the valuations of both a-shares and hong kong stocks are at the lowest level in history, while the overseas us stock market valuation is at 80 the valuation range is above the 10th percentile, and at the same time, in the future, it will face the pressure of corporate profit adjustment caused by the fiscal ebb and the gradual emergence of economic weakness.

in terms of the bond market, domestic bonds have performed well overall under the combined influence of factors such as high allocation demand, loose liquidity, and pressure on fundamentals. however, low interest rates also mean that the return on investment is declining, and the asymmetry in returns and volatility has increased significantly. , configuration and price-performance ratio are average. in overseas markets, with the start of the fed's interest rate cut cycle, u.s. debt has mid- to long-term allocation value.

in terms of commodities, taking into account the gradual clarity of the federal reserve's interest rate cut path, increasing global geopolitical risks, and the positioning of supranational sovereign credit values ​​in the context of anti-globalization, we strategically focus on the allocation value of gold.

dai hongkun:driven by strong policies, the macro economy is expected to improve significantly in the fourth quarter, gradually transforming from an early structural recovery to an overall recovery. real estate problems will be further resolved, consumer confidence will increase, and the momentum of the new economy in the transition period will be enhanced. regulators have recently launched the most aggressive financial policies of the year. these policy combinations demonstrate china's determination to realize economic transformation and realize its growth potential, and are expected to support stable economic growth and improve market expectations.

the performance of the stock market in the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to. the recent strong rebound of the market has set a good tone for the fourth quarter. market transactions are active and risk appetite has improved. based on a solid policy foundation, this rebound is expected to continue.

the bond market may show a volatile and slowly upward trend. the market expects that after this rrr cut and interest rate cut, the central bank will further cut rrr and interest rates in the fourth quarter. the loose monetary policy is expected to provide support to the bond market. however, funds may be diverted after the stock market rises, creating certain restrictions.

in addition, u.s. stocks are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the fourth quarter, and commodities will continue to fluctuate.

in the fourth quarter, more attention was paid to the allocation value of equity assets.

china fund news: stimulated by a series of favorable policies, the a-share market is in a state of excitement, and the "debt bull" has put on a sudden brake. how to allocate major categories of assets in the fourth quarter? how are stocks and bonds matched? which type of assets is more cost-effective?

yan biao:in terms of major asset allocations, we judge that equity assets will recover in valuation due to the reversal of market participants' risk preferences; under expectations of improved fundamentals, bond assets will experience significantly greater pressure due to disturbances on the liability side, but china the long-term winning rate is still high; in the fourth quarter, we tend to overweight equity assets and standardize bond assets, and are cautious about the long term.

gao ying:with the impact of multiple factors such as overseas interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, the u.s. election, and domestic policy games, it is necessary to increase global asset allocation from the perspective of major asset allocation, and increase the portfolio by investing in different countries and different types of assets. diversity of revenue sources.

at present, as the fed's interest rate hike cycle ends and turns to interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of u.s. bonds is gradually increasing. historical data shows that after the end of the interest rate hike cycle, especially in the early stages of interest rate cuts, u.s. bond yields will usually experience a decline and u.s. bond prices will rise. the domestic bond market is greatly affected by policies, but in the context of the global interest rate cut cycle, downside space is also opening up.

yang yu:from the perspective of major asset allocation, in the fourth quarter we paid more attention to the allocation value of equity assets. taking the csi 300 as an example, the absolute valuation and risk premium were below the 20th percentile and above the 90th percentile respectively in the past ten years, while the dividend rate exceeded 3%, the overall configuration is cost-effective. at the same time, in terms of liquidity, after the new "national nine regulations", the scale of capital market repurchases and dividends has continued to increase. since this year, the amount of a-share repurchases has exceeded 138.6 billion yuan, which is at a historical high for the same period and has become a new incremental fund. coupled with the recent financial new policies and the creation of structural monetary policy tools for the first time to support the development of the capital market, it is judged that the risk preference of the equity market will gradually recover, and the allocation of bonds will be more cost-effective.

dai hongkun:in the fourth quarter, the allocation was mainly domestic stocks and bonds, with a small allocation of overseas assets. from the perspective of future growth space, domestic stocks may be more cost-effective. after recent continuous rises, the overall valuation is still low.

market uptrend

the rotation of industry sector styles is expected to remain rapid

china fund news: recently, the market has shown a general rise pattern with multiple blooms. active equity funds that have suffered deep declines in the past few years have made a "big recovery". in the fourth quarter, how do you plan and screen active equity funds? which type is preferred?

gao ying:at present, we have not yet seen a clear turning point for the switch from value style to growth style. from a policy perspective, the recent combination of punches has promoted a sharp rebound in the equity market. in the short term, the direction of deeper decline in the early stage has the potential to benefit, which is more beneficial to the growth style. however, in the medium and long term, under the background of many adjustments to the value style in the early stage, the dividend yield advantage gradually emerged, and the bond market yield dropped significantly, and the cost performance of dividend assets further improved. the value sector is still more favored by funds. from the market perspective, , the performance of the value sector is still outstanding, and it has not been drained by the growth sector.

the style rotation of industry sectors is expected to still be rapid. therefore, in terms of style, it is recommended to have a balanced allocation of growth value. in terms of market value, leading core assets are preferred. in terms of industry sectors, it is recommended to be generally balanced, with a slight overweight of color, electronics, home appliances, banks, for automobiles, as well as hong kong stock dividends and hang seng technology, the industry deviation should not be too high.

yan biao:in the fourth quarter, monetary policy and fiscal policy will be significantly stronger, the determination of domestic economic transformation is relatively certain, and the short-term asset shortage continues. we prefer the value style in the industry selection of equity assets. this type of assets will obviously benefit from expectations of improved earnings and the decline in real interest rates.

in terms of strategy, we are optimistic about high-dividend assets and core assets; in terms of industry, we focus on industries with scarcity characteristics, including upstream resources (crude oil, copper, coal), transportation (roads, ports, shipping), public utilities (electricity, gas, water).

yang yu:whether it is a value style or a growth style, it is difficult to judge the turning point. we tend to believe that the equity market opportunities will be more extensive after continuous adjustments. at the same time, in terms of policy, the overseas federal reserve has started an interest rate cut cycle, and domestic policies have successively introduced a number of policies to support high-quality economic development. the overall situation is conducive to risk appetite fix.

at the same time, we have observed in the survey that some high-quality growth directions have indeed shown high attractiveness, and the price/performance ratio relative to dividend assets is improving. however, at the same time, we believe that when the risk-free rate of return continues to decline and regulations encourage medium and long-term funds to enter the market and against the background of requiring listed companies to improve quality and efficiency, value stocks with stable profitability and dividend capabilities still have high allocation value in the medium to long term.

in terms of the layout of equity funds, in the first half of the year we focused more on value styles, including stable dividends, upstream resources, and overseas expansion. however, at the current stage, the allocation will be appropriately balanced and select some companies with bottom-up stock selection advantages and focus on portfolio management and allocation of funds take into account domestic demand and new productivity.

dai hongkun:from a long-term perspective, during the market downturn in the past three years, the value style performed better than the growth style, and the market is expected to end the downturn and move towards an upward stage. during the market upward stage, the growth style has a higher probability of winning over the value style.

from the perspective of the quarterly short cycle, the value style won out in the first and second quarters of this year; at the end of the third quarter, the growth style reversed, and the fourth quarter may perform better. although they are more optimistic about the growth style, the portfolio allocation will still be relatively balanced, slightly biased towards growth, and select active equity funds with strong risk control capabilities, significant and relatively stable excess returns, and clear styles.

short-term bond market may undergo correction

china fund news: after the recent implementation of a series of policy combinations, the bond market has experienced major adjustments. looking ahead to the market outlook, how do you view the investment value of bond funds? which species deserves more attention?

yan biao:in view of the current changes in the bond market, we believe that there is a risk of increased volatility in the short-term bond market. looking forward to the market outlook, in terms of interest rate bonds, considering that the domestic policy shift has been relatively certain and the possibility of a steepening curve has further increased, we will take into account both variety selection and duration considerations when allocating, and remain cautious in duration management, with a one-year interbank deposit certificates and short-duration interest rate bonds are the main investment directions; in terms of credit bonds, the space for subsequent capital gains is limited, and the proportion of coupon strategies will be increased when allocating, focusing on defense of short- and medium-duration varieties, and paying attention to liquidity.

gao ying:the bond market adjusted in august after interest rates hit a periodic low. in terms of interest rates, it is still affected by the attitude of the central bank; in terms of credit, credit spreads have been extremely compressed in the early stage, and accumulated adjustments need to be released intensively. however, since the duration of credit bond allocation of pure debt funds is generally not high, the overall fluctuations are controllable.

this larger-than-expected interest rate cut has increased the gaming space for interest rate bonds to a certain extent; at the same time, market credit spreads have returned to the levels in early april after a round of adjustments, with a certain margin of safety.

in general, among current pure debt funds, both interest rate debt bases and credit debt bases have certain investment value. of course, considering the possible risks from fiscal policy exceeding expectations, the uncertainty of long-term varieties may increase, so you can pay due attention when selecting interest rate debt bases.

yang yu:looking forward to the market outlook, the space for monetary policy will open up, the stability of low interest rates may be maintained, the risk-free interest rate curve will move downward as a whole, and there is the possibility of repair of credit bonds that were adjusted more significantly due to funding interest rate restrictions and redemptions in august. in addition, although the dominant fundamental factors of long-term interest rate bonds have not yet been reversed, policy disturbances have increased. at the same time, the restoration of risk appetite will also have an impact on sentiment, and the volatility of long-term assets will increase. overall, allocating credit bond funds with high credit spreads and medium duration is a relatively more rational choice.

dai hongkun:bond funds have long-term investment value, but the income expectations for bond funds in the fourth quarter will be lower. on the one hand, expectations of loose monetary policy and uncertainty about economic recovery still provide fundamental support to the bond market; on the other hand, with strong policy support, the probability of economic recovery in the fourth quarter is high, and a good stock market will also divert some funds. against the background that the stock market is expected to continue to improve, bond fund types containing equity, such as secondary debt bases, fixed income + and other products deserve attention.

pay attention to overseas elections, federal reserve interest rate meetings, exchange rate fluctuations and other uncertain factors

china fund news: amidst the frequent policy changes, risk appetite in the equity market has also improved significantly. what uncertainties may arise in the fourth quarter? how will risk prevention be done in the portfolio?

yan biao:in the fourth quarter, we paid more attention to the implementation of policies. first, the effect of the transmission from monetary easing to credit expansion remains to be seen; second, there is also a lag in the transmission from credit expansion to demand.

gao ying:at present, the biggest uncertainty in the fourth quarter comes from the geopolitical risks brought about by the us election. we need to focus on the strength of domestic policy hedging. we will control the overall exposure in the corresponding direction in the portfolio and closely track the valuation and sentiment level of its pricing. secondly, the domestic uncertainty lies in whether the price level can stop falling and stabilize, thereby driving nominal growth to stabilize. residential consumption expectations, corporate profits, local finance, etc. are all related to nominal growth. in the past two years, they have been dragged down by price factors and have been overall weak. currently, a series of macro stimulus policies are being introduced one after another, and we will pay attention to their impact on price levels, which will be one of the main clues for domestic asset pricing in the fourth quarter.

yang yu:the fourth quarter may be affected by many uncertainties at home and abroad, including overseas elections, the federal reserve’s interest rate meeting, rmb exchange rate fluctuations, domestic real estate, and policy changes. specifically in terms of portfolio response, from the perspective of winning rate and odds, we still focus on winning rate, focus on selecting assets with high certainty, reasonable valuation, and good liquidity for layout, and reduce exposure to macro risks. after the risk factors are gradually clear, make further adjustments.

dai hongkun:for investment, strengthen the diversification of the portfolio in terms of assets and styles, avoid extreme allocations, and choose high-quality investment targets to reduce the impact of uncertain factors on the portfolio.