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there is no way out! a large number of small counties are heading towards collapse

2024-09-29

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author|buyu

in our lifetime, we may witness the complete disappearance of a large number of small counties.

an obvious signal is thatmany provinces are accelerating the destruction of the "iron rice bowl" of small counties.for example, shanxi took the lead in launching institutional reform pilot projects in counties with small populations:

in loufan county, the number of public institutions decreased from more than 3,000 to 341, a reduction rate of 88.6%;

in hequ county, the number of public institutions decreased from 1,964 to 659, a reduction rate of 66.4%;

in fushan county, the number of public institutions decreased from 1,944 to 970, a reduction rate of 50.1%.

why downsize? many counties can no longer afford to support so many public officials. the superficial prosperity of the county is like a bubble that has been burst.

did you know?in the past ten years, more than 70% of counties in china have lost population.among them, the vast majority are small and medium-sized cities in the central and western regions.

population loss, fiscal collapse, housing prices plummeting, and public services suspended... the comfortable life of small counties living behind closed doors cannot last forever.

a large number of small counties are heading towards collapse.

mid- and long-term population migration data show thatthe decline of most counties in china has become inevitable.

zeping macroscopically compared the population migration data of 3,000 counties in china from 2010 to 2020, and the results are surprising:

there were 1,676 counties with population outflow, accounting for 77.9%.compared with the previous decade (2000 to 2010), it increased by 14%.

image source: zeping macro

from the perspective of city breakdown, there is no outflow of population in first- and second-tier cities, third-tier cities dropped from 18% to 15%, fourth-tier cities increased from 45% to 57%, fifth-tier cities increased from 71% to 83%, and sixth-tier cities increased from 71% to 83%. first-tier cities increased from 69% to 86%.

it is obvious that the population of small cities/counties is declining rapidly. this is an unstoppable force.

on the contrary, the population siphon effect in metropolitan areas is strengthening,the contribution rate of 24 metropolitan areas with more than 10 million people to the national population increase continues to exceed 80%.

taking guangdong province as an example, the permanent population growth from 2010 to 2020 was as high as 20.96 million. only guangzhou and shenzhen’s combined growth was as high as 13.18 million, contributing 62.9% to the province’s population growth.

in contrast, 80% of the population in underdeveloped areas in guangdong province is leaving the country. several major cities, such as guangzhou, shenzhen, foshan, and dongguan, have almost sucked out the population of surrounding counties.the flow of people is the flow of the economy.

although in the past two years, there have been many articles advocating the boom in consumption in the county:

all kinds of catering and retail are entering the sinking market, and even starbucks has opened in the county. on the internet, the generous and comfortable life of "county town brahmins" has put hundreds of millions of urban workers on guard.

however, it turns out thatthe economies of many county towns are only superficially prosperous and are as unsustainable as bubbles.

a shop in the county town that was once passed down for three generations is no longer available for rent. according to china economic weekly, at the beginning of 2024, the rental and sales markets in 100 counties across the country will not be optimistic. among them, nearly 20 cities including xuancheng, anhui, shaoyang, hunan, and tianshui, gansu, have shop vacancy rates exceeding 50%. that is to say, half of the shops in the county are in the "prosperous shop transfer".

civil servants in the county have also begun to be unable to pay wages. more and more civil servants are complaining about salary cuts: year-end bonuses are gone, subsidies are gone, and the monthly salary is only 3,000 yuan. in addition to the shanxi province mentioned earlier, qinghai, gansu, jiangxi, hunan and other provinces have also launched institutional reform pilots one after another, determined to smash the "iron rice bowl".

how come the dream of comfort in a small county town suddenly collapsed overnight? the direct reason is,the finances of many counties have already beenmake ends meet.

taking guizhou as an example, among the 88 districts and counties in the province in 2022,no district or county’s fiscal self-sufficiency rate exceeds 100%.renhuai city (located in maotai town), which has the highest self-sufficiency rate, is only 87.65%, while rongjiang county, which has the lowest self-sufficiency rate, is an astonishingly low 4.71%.

this means that all districts and counties in guizhou must rely on higher-level financial "blood transfusions"!

another representative case is foping county in hanzhong city, shaanxi province: this small county with a population of only 26,000 has an established financial support staff of close to 3,000 people when the urban population is only over 8,000. calculated, on average, 8 people need to support one staff member!

you know, foping county's general public budget revenue in 2022 is only 24.82 million yuan, while expenditures are as high as 1.055 billion yuan, of which 272 million yuan is salary alone. the entire county's fiscal revenue for one year is not enough to pay salaries to those within the system.

how to solve the huge financial gap? in addition to issuing bonds, it can only rely on transfer payments from superiors.

however, since the beginning of this year, the finances of both the central and local governments have been difficult. according to caixin statistics, among the 18 provinces that have announced their fiscal revenue and expenditures for the first eight months so far, most of them have experienced a year-on-year decline or slight increase in fiscal revenue. among them, the income of five provinces, jiangxi, guangxi, shaanxi, inner mongolia and shanxi, fell year-on-year, with shanxi experiencing the largest decline, reaching 7.9%.

in government documents at all levels, “living a tight life”"" and "selling the iron by smashing the pot" have become the norm. this pressure will inevitably be transmitted to small counties.

in fact, many counties and cities whose fiscal revenue cannot make ends meet have to support a large-scale fiscally supported population, which has formed a prominent contradiction.

recently, in a development statistical bulletin from chengwu county, shandong province, the pension structure shocked countless netizens. in 2023, this county:

retirees from government agencies and institutions8778 people, issue pension benefits785 millionyuan;

there are 13,220 retired personnel in enterprises and units, with pension benefits of 369 million yuan;

persons receiving pension insurance benefits for urban and rural residents11.940,000 people, issue pension benefits251 millionyuan;

……

the entire chengwu county,the pension for the 8,800 people in the system is nearly rmb 800 million, while the pension for the 120,000 residents is only rmb 250 million!the huge gap in retirement benefits within and outside the county system is not only a social problem, but also reflects the huge financial pressure behind it.

li changping, an expert on rural areas and farmers, called in an article:we must be wary of the county economy shrinking to the point where only the “public servant economy” remains.

after traveling to counties across the country, he discovered:"the industrial park is deserted, the real estate is deserted, only eating and drinking are still lively, because there are still a large number of civil servantsas support. "

can you lie down for a long time just by eating and drinking? it's obviously impossible.

heilongjiang hegang city is a typical sample. a few years ago, hegang became popular on the internet because of its ultra-low housing prices, which cost "tens of thousands of yuan per unit." it attracted many young people who were tired of the involution of big cities. it was considered a "sacred place to live in peace".

however, the reality of hegang is far from utopian romance. the city's history of decline bears the blood and tears of many northeastern old industrial bases. as one of the four largest coal mines in the country, with resource depletion, hegang was identified as one of the third batch of resource-exhausted cities in the country in 2011.

xinling coal mine in hegang national mine park (photo source: the paper)

the property is empty and people have fled. at the end of 2022, the total registered population in hegang city was 946,000, a decrease of 139,000 from 1.085 million in 2012.

resource depletion, population outflow, urban aging, and housing prices have dropped to the price of cabbage. a large number of small and medium-sized cities are facing a similar fate to hegang, such as fuxin in liaoning, shuangyashan in heilongjiang, yumen in gansu, and so on. most of these cities are resource-based or traditional industrial cities.

so many people call this type of city:"hegangization".

the root of the problem of "hegang people" is not the outflow of the population, but the hollowing out of industry.due to the lack of pillar industries, many counties cannot provide sufficient employment support for the local population.

with no pillar industries, no regulated enterprises, and no population, where does the county’s fiscal revenue come from?

as the county's finances further collapse, people living in the county may face challengesthe level of public services has declined or even been suspended.

because there are no subsidies, many county buses have been suspended since last year. nowadays in the county, it is difficult to travel far without a private car.

as china as a whole moves from the era of large-scale infrastructure construction to the era of large-scale maintenance, small counties that lack financial resources will be even more impacted. our neighbor japan has already provided a precedent for this:

yubari city in hokkaido was the first city in japan to declare bankruptcy. unable to afford the high debt left over from the bubble economy era, the city government shut down most of its public facilities.schools, hospitals, and even public toilets are closed.residents' incomes have plummeted, while water bills and other living costs are higher than in tokyo. the population that once peaked at 116,000 now has less than 7,000 people left.

yubari city today is full of dilapidated buildings

how can you live in peace and quiet for a long time without working hard?people who want to settle down in a small county should be prepared for a long-term decline in their quality of life.

judging from the cases in developed countries, the decline of many small cities is also a general trend.

in japan, tokyo carries 10% of japan's population and 19.5% of its gdp with 0.6% of its land. the entire tokyo metropolitan area has a population of 37.28 million, accounting for 35.11% of the country's total.

in the united states, the three metropolitan areas of los angeles, new york, and the great lakes also create more than 60% of the country's gdp.

china's urbanization has also entered a new stage, and the reshuffle between cities will also accelerate. in the "opinions on promoting urbanization construction with county towns as an important carrier" issued in 2022, it is mentioned:

"organically guide the transfer of population to adjacent areas with advantages for economic development."

this means,if your hometown is not included in a certain metropolitan area, there is a high probability that it will gradually shrink or even disappear in the future.

of course, china still has a rural population of 600 million, and counties still carry out the function of radiating public services to surrounding rural areas.

in revitalizing the county economy, there are two completely opposite tendencies that deserve vigilance. one is to do nothing and completely lie down; the other is to ignore the actual local situation, borrow money like crazy, and go ahead recklessly, leaving behind a number of unfinished projects and superficial projects.

dushan county in guizhou, which has built a bunch of "wonders" and owes 40 billion in debt, has learned a painful lesson.

the world's best water division building in dushan county

now even if we can no longer borrow money, the business environment in many counties is still very worrying. it's 2024, and many counties are still relying on corporate fines to pay civil servants.

in some places, "generating revenue from fines" is written all over their faces.as mentioned earlier, chengwu county, which has distributed rmb 800 million in pensions to the system, recently had a piece of news that went viral: a law enforcement officer from the local municipal supervision bureau once said publicly, “it is too easy to bring down a company. "

after hearing this, which company would dare to invest? the county's self-rescue still requires strong measures to improve the business environment.

in the past thirty years, china has developed too fast. many of today’s “new shanghainese” and “new beijingers” come from small counties. the county seat is the starting point of many people’s memories and the destination of their spirits.

the rapid migration of the population has created a generation of spiritual dilemmas. "small counties that cannot be returned to" have resonated with many people who have left their hometowns. there are also many migrant workers who regard small counties as their escape route in life.

protect the "roots" of hundreds of millions of chinese people so that homesickness will not have nowhere to rest.

perhaps the collapse and disappearance of countless small counties is an inevitable trend, but for people who were born and raised here, protecting and developing their hometown is also the value of life.

the taste of sweetness and bitterness can only be known by oneself.