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"a daily fixed-income financial product with a risk level of r1 has been losing money in the past few days." a shanghai investor told china business news that such fixed-income financial products that have been held in the past have rarely experienced losses. income.

another bond fund investor told reporters that the bond funds on hand have made a sharp correction in recent days. on thursday (september 26) and friday (september 27), they lost several thousand yuan in two days, and there were single orders during the year. the largest daily decline.

after the recent implementation of a series of policy packages aimed at boosting the economy, the bond market has undergone major adjustments, with yields rising rapidly. this caused fluctuations in the yields of financial products, and many investors found that the fixed-income financial products they held began to lose money. according to wind data, a total of 741 fixed-income financial management products have experienced net value retracement in the past week, with 25 having a retracement rate exceeding 1%, and nearly 30% having a retracement rate exceeding 0.01%, involving cmb financial management, industrial bank financial management, china post financial management, etc. a number of leading financial management subsidiaries.

this week, under the influence of the "9·24" policy package,the 30-year treasury bond yield rose by about 17 bp (basis points), breaking through the 2.3% mark; treasury bond futures fell across the board, with the main 30-year contract falling by 3.74% on a weekly basis, and once fell by more than 3% on the 27th, setting a record high. the main 10-year contract fell 1.22% on the week, and once fell 0.96% on the 27th, the largest drop since early july 2020.

industry analysts believe that the weakening of the bond market is mainly affected by the recent policy signals for stabilizing growth that exceed expectations, which has boosted market risk appetite and caused funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. in addition, the central bank's monetary policy adjustments, including lowering the deposit reserve ratio and reverse repurchase operation interest rates, have also had an impact on the bond market. the fall in the bond market has had a negative impact on the financial management market, and we need to be alert to the risk of a wave of financial management redemptions.

bond market correction, financial management income fluctuates

the central bank announced on september 27 that it would lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points starting from that day. the interest rate for 7-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market was adjusted from the previous 1.70% to 1.50%.

pressure on bond markets intensified after the central bank's "rare" double cut. on that day, the 30-year government bond yield rose 8.75 bp to 2.3225%, the 10-year government bond yield rose 7.75 bp to 2.1725%, the 7-year government bond yield rose 10.75 bp to 2.0675%, and the 5-year government bond and 3-year government bond yields increased by 10.75 bp to 2.0675%. upward 9bp and 10bp respectively.

the treasury futures market also experienced significant declines. the main contract of 30-year treasury futures fell by 3.24% during the session, the largest drop in history. as of the close of the day, it fell by 2.56%. the main 10-year contract fell 0.96%, the main 5-year contract fell 0.50%, and the main 2-year contract fell 0.11%.

affected by the adjustment in the bond market, bond funds also suffered losses. wind data shows that the medium- and long-term pure bond fund index fell by 0.22% this week. it all fell on september 24, 26, and 27, with the largest single-day decline of 0.24% on september 27. a bond fund source told reporters that institutional investors have recently redeemed their bond funds, mainly banks, financial management and other institutions, and some trusts and futures have also participated in the application.

"it cannot be ruled out that institutions took advantage of the adjustment in the bond market to limit profits, mainly for risk prevention and reserve liquidity considerations." the aforementioned person explained.

the sharp fall in bond yields has dragged down the substantial increase in the allocation of bond fund financial products this year. according to data previously disclosed by kaiyuan securities, as of the end of the second quarter, bank financial management held a total ofpublic funds1.1 trillion yuan, of which 864.6 billion yuan was allocated to bond funds, accounting for 78.6%, making it the largest category of assets.

industry analysts pointed out that the central bank's "double cuts" have further put pressure on the bond market. the rrr cuts have released a large amount of liquidity and increased the supply of funds in the market. at the same time, the "seesaw" effect in the stock and bond markets has caused funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. . "recently, the stock market has been booming rapidly, and many redemption funds for short-end products such as commodity funds and debt funds have flowed into the stock market, putting further pressure on the bond market." a market source told reporters.

let’s take a closer look at the main players who increased their positions in public funds during the year. they are mainly top financial managers. according to kaiyuan securities, they include cmb financial management, xingyin financial management, qingyin financial management, cncbi financial management, minsheng financial management, cncbi financial management, etc.

the products of the above-mentioned financial management companies have been greatly affected by this round of bond market adjustment. wind data shows that as of september 27, a total of 741 fixed-income financial management products have experienced a net value retracement in the past week, 25 of which have a retracement of more than 1%, and nearly 30% of which have a retracement of more than 0.1%. among them, the one with the largest retracement is "cmb wealth management zhaoruitian tianjin stable no. 6 ws", with a retracement of 85.85%, and the latest unit net value is 0.1429.“industrial bankthe latest net unit value of "tiantian wanlibao wenli no. 6 l section c" is 1, and the retracement range is 1.76%.

in addition, the retracement rate of "qingyin financial management's bright life achievements open" exceeded 1%, and "china post financial management hongye yuantu 2024 issue 67 (institution exclusive)" and "xingyin financial management ruili xinghe fengrui no. 4" enhanced "type" and other retracements are close to 1%, and the latest net value of units is below 1.

as financial management income fluctuates significantly, many investors have found losses on the products at hand. after the bond market adjustment in august triggered concerns about financial management yields in the industry, some investors considered whether to redeem financial products and invest funds in markets with higher returns. some institutional investors told reporters that the stock market and commodity market have been rising very well recently, but the financial products on hand have not produced good returns. if the bond market continues to fall, they will consider redeeming the financial products and investing the funds in the stock market.

be wary of potential financial ruin risks

the rapid adjustment of the bond market has triggered a decline in the yields of financial products. how long will the adjustment last in the future?

many people in the industry believe that the recent batch of economic policies that are good for the market have been implemented one after another, and the stock market continues to rise unabated, which means that the pressure on the bond market is still there and the downward trend will not change in the short term.

feng lin, director of the research and development department of oriental jincheng, said that considering that a number of incremental policies such as fiscal policy will be introduced one after another, as well as the potential upward momentum of the stock market with policy support, the bond market may face some unfavorable factors in the short term. , manifested by intensified market volatility and soft overall trends.

"in the medium and long term, the trend still needs to observe the effect of the policy. before the effect of the policy appears and leads to a reversal of fundamental expectations, the bond market trend will be difficult to fundamentally reverse, which will also limit the short-term market decline space." feng lin believes.

this also means that the yield rate of the financial management market, which is dominated by fixed-income products, will continue to be under pressure in the short term. according to the "china banking industry financial management market semi-annual report (2024 first)", as of the end of june this year, the existing scale of fixed-income products in the financial management market was 27.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 96.88% of the existing scale of all financial products, an increase from the beginning of the year 0.54 percentage points, an increase of 1.73 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

among them, according to wind data,three wealth management subsidiaries have allocated fixed-income assets exceeding one trillion yuan, namely cmb wealth management, china everbright wealth management and bank of communications wealth management. in addition, 26 wealth management subsidiaries have allocated more than 50% of fixed-income assets, including hengfeng wealth management and nanyin wealth management. , suyin financial management, everbright financial management, huihua financial management, and bank of communications financial management all accounted for more than 90% of the allocation.

one personfinancial managersources told reporters that the short-term bond market is undergoing an adjustment, which will cause certain disturbances to the net value performance of financial management products, and will have a greater impact on financial management companies that allocate a higher proportion of fixed-income financial management. "in particular, some products that achieve high returns through leverage are more sensitive to changes in interest rates, and you should be wary of potential net loss risks.。”

the reporter noticed that the number of net sales of financial products has been on the rise in august.guosen securitiesstatistics show that as of the end of august 2024, a total of 2,782 financial products had a net net value per unit, with a net net value break rate of 4.49%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points month-on-month. at the same time, the average performance comparison benchmark of financial products across the market continued to decline, falling to 2.82% by the end of august.

the performance substandard rate of financial products during the year also continued to rise. according towest china securitiesstatistics show that in august, the performance substandard rate of financial products in the market was 17.9%. as of september 20, the substandard performance rate was still at 17%. "it is estimated that after the bond market reversal at the end of the month, the substandard performance rate of financial products may increase." the aforementioned person told reporters.

the net value of some products has fluctuated recently. according to the semi-annual report of everbright wealth management's "sunshine bilehu no. 54", all 8.1 billion yuan of the product's assets were invested in fixed-income assets. wind data shows that since its establishment on june 12, the net value performance of this product has been relatively volatile. it once reached a net value level of 3.8700 at the end of june, then declined all the way in july, and experienced fluctuations again in september. as of the close of september 27, the latest net value report 1.8785.

however, some institutions believe that the profit-taking trend in the bond market is unsustainable and that the room for rising long-term interest rates is relatively limited.zheshang securitiesqin han, chief analyst of fixed income, said that after eliminating the risks that may exist in the treasury bond transactions of some small and medium-sized financial institutions, the treasury bond yields should be determined by the market.there are still rrr cuts and interest rate cuts worth looking forward to in the fourth quarter. the probability of the 10-year government bond yield effectively breaking through 2.0% continues to increase. the low of the 10-year government bond yield during the year may be close to 1.8%.