the shanghai composite index returns to 3,000 points! ten fund interpretations: high-quality companies may show sustainable upward space
2024-09-26
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a-shares continued their surge, with the shanghai composite index crossing the 3,000-point mark.
on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next economic work. the meeting emphasized that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market, and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, and financial management funds to enter the market. it is necessary to support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily advance the reform of public offering funds, and study and introduce policy measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.
boosted by the news, the stock index returned to a surge in the afternoon, and the shanghai composite index even regained the 3,000-point mark. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 3.61% to 3,000.95 points; the science and technology innovation 50 index rose 3.87%, the shenzhen component index rose 4.44%, and the chinext index rose 4.42%.
with multiple favorable policies resonating, has the stock market opened up room for continued upward movement? the paper (www.thepaper.cn) interviewed 10 public funds as soon as possible.
overall, public funds unanimously believe that the policy signals released by the politburo meeting of the cpc central committee are very clear, and the policy strength is far beyond market expectations. boosted by a series of favorable policies, market confidence and risk appetite have rebounded significantly in recent days, and trading volume has increased. with the continuous increase of positive factors, the rebound of a-shares may continue, and the recovery of industry sectors benefiting from policy support may be more obvious.
at the same time, public funds also pointed out that if the equity market in the medium term is to achieve a fundamental reversal, it still needs to see more forceful practical policies and a real recovery in economic fundamentals. therefore, they will continue to pay attention to the specific ways in which policies are implemented and the specific circumstances of the implementation of policy effects in the future.
du meng, deputy general manager and investment director of morgan asset management china, said that the recent market rise reflects that investors are gradually turning optimistic. since june, the pressure on macroeconomic growth has increased and investor sentiment has been relatively low. a series of recent meetings reflect the government's emphasis on the economy and capital markets. investors are also beginning to look forward to more targeted and effective policies being implemented, and investment sentiment is gradually warming up. in the early stage, it often shows the characteristics of a highly elastic oversold rebound. in the long run, high-quality companies may show sustainable upward space.
"we believe that the change in sentiment may push the market to gradually return from previous excessive pessimism to a relatively rational pricing framework. and excellent companies whose valuations were already at a relatively bottom area in the previous period may gradually see their value restored," said du meng.
looking ahead to the future, jin zicai, deputy general manager and equity investment director of caitong fund, believes that as decision-makers actively respond to concerns and consolidate confidence, the market is expected to open up further. in the next step, we will focus on the recovery of market confidence and the impact on the industry during the detailed implementation of policies, actively seize the window of recovery of market confidence and marginal changes in economic fundamentals in the future, and arrange related investment opportunities around the industry cycle.
morgan stanley fund: the a-share market's phased bottoming out may have ended
the policy signals released by the meeting of the political bureau of the cpc central committee are very obvious, and the policy strength is far beyond market expectations. first of all, in terms of release time, economic work is generally not the main topic of the political bureau meeting in september. this meeting focused on the current economic situation, which fully reflects the determination to stabilize growth. secondly, there have been substantial changes in the policy statements in some areas, which have put forward higher requirements for the stabilization of the property market and attached great importance to the people-friendly policies. in terms of fiscal and monetary policies, there is still room for monetary policy, and fiscal policies are expected to be increased. in addition, the statement of "striving to boost the capital market" is also more proactive, showing the care for the capital market, which is also one of the main reasons for the large-scale rise in the market today.
based on the introduction of this round of unexpected policies, market confidence is expected to be greatly boosted, and the a-share market may have ended its periodic bottoming out, and is expected to usher in a new round of recovery. we are optimistic about the overall trend of china's core assets, and areas that have been suppressed by pessimistic expectations are also expected to usher in valuation repairs. the focus will be on the implementation of fiscal policies in the future.
robeco fund: after breaking through a certain point, the further rise of the stock market still requires the implementation of subsequent policies
the timing and wording of the meeting of the political bureau of the cpc central committee today exceeded expectations, emphasizing "stepping up efforts to introduce incremental policies, increasing fiscal and monetary countercyclical adjustments, promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and working hard to boost the capital market." the "strategic determination" of the political bureau meeting in july was not mentioned again. this also shows that the policy signals released this time have become significantly more positive, and facing difficulties head-on, paying attention to housing prices and capital markets, including employment and consumption, are all correct ways of thinking to solve problems, showing that the urgency of the policy level to stabilize economic growth is significantly increasing, and expectations for steady growth policies within the year are expected to continue to rise.
after the monetary easing was first implemented, fiscal and real estate policies may also be implemented in the near future, and the market risk appetite has obviously increased. correspondingly, the stock index rebounded more actively.
it should be noted that for economic fundamentals, deflationary pressure requires greater efforts to resolve, and it is still very difficult to stabilize housing prices and even increase residents' leverage, and it is impossible to see immediate results. therefore, the current stock market is still dominated by valuation repair. after breaking through a certain point, the further rise of the stock market still requires the implementation of subsequent policies.
boshi fund: the recovery of industry sectors benefiting from policy support may be more obvious
today's political bureau meeting continued to release positive signals, exceeding market expectations, focusing on the real estate industry and capital markets, effectively boosting market confidence. today, the three major a-share indexes rose by more than 3%, market turnover continued to exceed one trillion, and more than 5,000 stocks rose. the swedish central bank announced a rate cut for the third time this year, and the european central bank also cut interest rates for the third time this year. the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in september, which was more than expected. the general trend of overseas liquidity gradually easing remains unchanged.
with the domestic economy recovering moderately, the policy side continues to maintain the tone of steady growth. this week, the central bank released a combination of policies, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio, interest rates, existing mortgage rates, and mlf rates, in order to increase the liquidity of the banking system and reduce the financing costs of the real economy, which is conducive to the restoration of consumption and investment willingness and helps the economy continue to develop in a positive direction. boosted by a series of favorable policies, market confidence and risk appetite have rebounded significantly in recent days, and trading volume has increased. with the continuous increase of positive factors, the rebound of a-shares may continue, and the recovery of industry sectors that benefit from policy support may be more obvious.
china europe fund: high roe companies and industries with room for roe improvement are expected to receive further attention from the market
the agenda of this political bureau meeting was beyond general expectations, emphasizing policy implementation and addressing issues head-on. as macroeconomic policies continue to increase in intensity and high-quality development policies are implemented at an accelerated pace, the macroeconomic situation is expected to continue to improve throughout the year.
for the domestic capital market, the market has seen a long-awaited continuous surge, as the previous monetary policy support and the reduction in the interest rate of existing mortgage loans exceeded expectations. however, if the fundamentals are to be stabilized and improved, the central government still needs to increase the intensity of stimulus policies. therefore, the tone set by this meeting will help ease the pressure on a-shares. in the future, more departments will release signals of relief and stimulus for the economy, driving the market to repair its expectations for fundamentals and improve the pressure on the capital side.
the market is expected to trade in a new direction in the near future. the directions worthy of attention may be in some real estate and general consumer industries, especially those whose current dynamic valuations deviate greatly from the valuation centers corresponding to the dynamic performance centers, which have a high safety margin brought by oversold and low valuations; and the pan-dividend concepts such as coal, oil and gas, transportation and utilities that attracted much attention in the first half of the year have regained their attractiveness after a substantial adjustment in stock prices; finally, growth stocks such as technological self-reliance, among which there are bottom-up opportunities for high-quality companies whose performance guidance for the second half of this year and next year will not decline on a month-on-month basis.
in the medium and long term, with the gradual disclosure of financial reports, companies that meet the requirements of high roe (return on equity) and industries with room for improvement in roe (return on equity) are expected to receive further attention from the market.
icbc credit suisse fund: capital market support tools are expected to improve micro liquidity
following the state council information office's press conference on a series of monetary policy combinations, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, today's politburo meeting continued to boost investment sentiment. a-shares saw a general rise again, with the shanghai composite index rising by more than 3% to above 3,000 points, and trading volume exceeding one trillion yuan for two consecutive days.
in the short term, multiple policies are favorable, especially capital market support tools are expected to improve micro liquidity, and the market may usher in a rebound opportunity. structurally, we can focus on the domestic demand sector with greater marginal policy improvements.
xingyin fund: the vitality of the capital market is expected to be further stimulated
since may, the a-share market has experienced a period of continuous adjustment. many equity assets are also very attractive according to the deep value standard. the entire market has reached a critical point. in this market context, the intensive policies issued by the state council information office and the political bureau meeting have become a catalyst and landmark event for market changes.
first, at the macro-policy level, the government has proposed the policy of "strengthening the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies", which shows the government's firm commitment to market stability. in particular, for the fiscal easing policy that the market pays close attention to, the government has made clear the requirement of "ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures", which provides solid support for the market. in the real estate sector, the government has introduced innovative policy measures aimed at "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", emphasizing the new concept of strictly controlling the increment, optimizing the stock, and improving the quality of commercial housing construction. these measures indicate that the healthy development of the real estate market will be strongly supported by policies. in addition, the government also emphasized "making efforts to boost the capital market and vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market", and is committed to breaking through the barriers to the entry of social security, insurance, and wealth management funds into the market. this echoes the goal of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence" put forward by the political bureau meeting in august 2023, but the policy statement this time is more detailed and the direction is clearer, indicating that future actions will be more decisive and effective.
taking into account the recent policy orientation and current asset prices, the vitality of the capital market is expected to be further stimulated. under the promotion of fiscal policy and the careful care of policies, the performance of the capital market is expected to be stronger, which will form a virtuous interaction with funds and drive the market into a continuous positive cycle.
yongying fund: trading opportunities will increase significantly
looking back, the policy shift is expected to support the a-share market to rebound amid volatility, and trading opportunities will increase significantly. in the medium term, whether the fiscal side will make efforts and the actual effect of credit expansion are the core factors that determine the medium-term market of a-shares.
internal economic policy shift signals and capital market support policies, coupled with expectations of marginal easing of external global liquidity, may support the continued corrective rebound of a-shares.
internally, on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference, and policies such as a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 20bp cut in the reverse repurchase rate, and a 50bp cut in existing mortgage loans were implemented, boosting residents' willingness to consume while easing pressure on the real estate chain, supporting the continued recovery of economic fundamentals, and improving the market's previous pessimistic expectations. at the same time, new policy tools (500 billion and 300 billion) were created to support the capital market, bringing potential long-term incremental funds to a-shares and boosting investor confidence. on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting. the timing and content of the meeting exceeded expectations. the importance of the economy was significantly increased, and the signal of policy shift was clear, indicating that more policies are expected to be implemented in the future.
externally, global monetary tightening ended with the start of the us interest rate cut cycle in september, and global assets, especially risky assets at low levels, have the momentum to rebound. for a-shares, after the recent adjustment of heavyweight stocks, the phenomenon of market structural distortion has been alleviated to a great extent, and the structural clearing of chips has also provided a good foundation for the market's continued rebound after bottoming out.
shangyin fund: the actual effect verification period is still a sweet period for long equity assets
looking ahead to the future market, three major policy lines need to be emphasized: first, in terms of enterprises and people's livelihood, we call for helping private enterprises, improving the business environment, promoting income growth for middle- and low-income groups, and protecting the bottom line of people's livelihood.
throughout 2024, insufficient internal effective demand has continued to plague china's economy. the growth rates of retail sales and cpi remain moderate, and there is a large room for potential consumption growth. at the same time, there is a risk of recession in the overseas economy. this policy combination has a high degree of consistency and optimizes the structure of residents' balance sheets from multiple dimensions, effectively strengthening the expectations of enterprises and ordinary residents for future prospects.
second, in terms of the capital market, efforts should be made to boost the capital market and support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies. both quantity and quality should be promoted to promote high-quality development of the capital market. while encouraging long-term funds to enter the stock market, listed companies should also be encouraged to actively use market value management tools such as mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, and major shareholders' shareholding increases. this ensures the long-term confidence of investors in the market and promotes the internal structural optimization and market efficiency improvement of listed companies.
third, in terms of economic policy, the emphasis was placed on increasing the intensity of countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. the meeting clearly proposed supporting the real estate industry, and the continued decline in domestic housing prices is expected to turn around, thereby boosting related companies in the industrial chain and macroeconomic expectations.
combined with the above three policy lines, the current overall market valuation is still at a relatively low level. despite the continuous rise for several days, the current price-to-book ratio of the a-share market is only 1.41, which is only the historical percentile of 3.41% in the past ten years. however, the specific short-term policies have not yet been implemented, and the actual effect verification period is still a sweet period for long equity assets, especially the pro-cyclical sectors that are expected to reverse. if the equity market in the medium term is to achieve a fundamental reversal, it still needs to see more powerful actual policies and a real recovery in economic fundamentals. therefore, we will continue to pay attention to the specific ways in which policies are implemented and the specific situation of the implementation of policy effects in the future.
industrial fund: a-share earnings fundamentals are expected to bottom out and rebound faster
the convening of the political bureau of the cpc central committee meeting far exceeded market expectations and released positive signals. its impact on the capital market is as follows: first, it will significantly improve investors' expectations for the macro economy and increase risk appetite for funds; second, it is expected to accelerate the bottoming out and recovery of a-share earnings fundamentals.
among them, the investment opportunities worthy of attention include: economically related procyclical assets: including domestic demand directions that have been oversold before, such as real estate chain and consumption; assets with greater elasticity related to the chinese economy, and hong kong stocks that benefit from the appreciation of the rmb, such as hong kong stocks of the internet.
abc-huili fund management: large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks in the future
this politburo meeting has played a very positive role in improving the overall risk appetite of the market and boosting economic and consumer expectations. holding a politburo meeting at a critical juncture in the current economic recovery and development fully demonstrates the country's determination to support economic development and boost market confidence.
looking ahead, abc-huarong fund management believes that this policy package exceeds market expectations, and large-cap stocks are expected to perform better than small-cap stocks in the future. on the one hand, the dividend fundamentals are still there, and you can focus on industries with stable cash flow, such as petrochemicals, home appliances, education and publishing, ports, and banks; on the other hand, the implementation of policies is expected to continue to improve market risk appetite, and growth industries with low valuations, strong performance stability, and still high growth rates in the future are expected to usher in valuation repairs, mainly concentrated in electronics, communications, power equipment, pharmaceuticals and biology, and basic chemicals.
the paper reporter ding xinqing
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