"throwing gravel under china's wheels won't stop them from turning" | reference exclusive
2024-09-25
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
reference news reported on september 25in 2016, donald trump campaigned for the us presidency on a promise to "defeat" china. after taking office, he introduced a series of tariffs and export controls. in the 2024 campaign, he embraced a strategy that would win votes, promising to go even further and impose a 60% tariff on all imports from china.
joe biden is by no means a "panda fan" either, as he has added new tariffs, primarily targeting chinese-made electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells, on top of the tariffs previously imposed by trump.
this will undoubtedly hurt china's economic development prospects.
but escalating the trade war would also be damaging for the united states. based on the tit-for-tat pattern that emerged during trump's first term, beijing can be expected to retaliate. if china imposes retaliatory tariffs on products from the united states, the united states could lose about $150 billion a year.
trump sees the tariffs as a tax on china. in fact, they are also a tax on american consumers, as prices for everything from toys to tablets will rise. that will hit u.s. economic growth and stoke inflation.
security hawks argue that it is worth paying a huge economic price to avoid the “threat” posed by china’s rise. here, too, the argument does not make sense. since mr. trump’s first term, the united states has imposed a series of tariffs and sanctions on china. they have likely slowed china’s advance toward what economists call the technological frontier, but they have not stopped it.
clearly, international obstacles have not stopped china from making great strides. in 2019, china surpassed the united states in international patent applications, and by 2023, china's patent applications were about 40% more than those of the united states.
trade data provide a sobering reality check and confirm that china’s progress is no mirage: china’s share of global electric vehicle exports, for example, has risen from low single digits in 2017 to nearly a quarter in 2023. german automakers are now students, not teachers, of their chinese competitors, said joseph wuttke, a partner at dentons global consulting and former president of the european union chamber of commerce in china.
the implications for the united states and the rest of the world are profound. large economies with extensive global connections and strong policymaking capabilities are not easily brought down, even by the world's most powerful countries. trump's threat to impose a 60% tariff is tantamount to throwing more gravel under china's wheels, but it will not stop them from turning.
whether trump or harris gets the job of us president, the next us president should spend more time and energy on accelerating the development of the united states rather than trying to slow down china's development.
this article was published on the bloomberg news website on september 17, with the original title "who loses in the endless trade war? not just china", and the author is tom orlick, chief economist of bloomberg economics. (compiled by liu xiaoyan)
