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on the morning of september 24, the state council information office held a press conference. pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, li yunze, director of the state financial supervision and administration bureau, and wu qing, chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, introduced the relevant situation of financial support for high-quality economic development and answered questions from reporters. a series of important policies related to the stock market and the property market were announced at the meeting.

overall, this policy involves a series of major positive factors, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, lowering the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, new monetary policy tools to support the capital market, and guiding the improvement of the quality of listed companies. boosted by major favorable policies, on september 24, a-shares and hong kong stocks saw a long-awaited large rebound.

how big is the impact of this release? what positive impact will it have on the capital market? which sectors are expected to benefit from it? china securities journal reporters interviewed more than a dozen public funds including bosera fund, great wall fund, huaan fund, huabao fund, great wall fund, essence fund, western fund, morgan asset management, cinda australia and asia fund, morgan stanley fund, hsbc jinxin fund, golden eagle fund, hang seng qianhai fund, bodao fund and yimi fund to interpret this.

the policy combination exceeded expectations

publicly offered funds generally believe that the package of policies released at this press conference will have far-reaching impact and exceed market expectations.

boshi fund's macro strategy department analyzed that the reduction of the statutory deposit reserve ratio, the market benchmark interest rate, the interest rate of existing housing loans, and the minimum down payment ratio for second homes are not only the continuation and strengthening of policy guidance, but also conducive to accelerating economic recovery. the supply and demand relationship of various industries has always been the focus of the stock market. the above policies are particularly conducive to improving the supply and demand situation of real estate and fixed asset investment-related industries, indirectly conducive to the supply and demand situation of some consumer goods, and ultimately conducive to promoting the reversal of the market's weakness.

great wall fund believes that the policy combination will help repair the market's risk appetite. with the clarification of policy signals, the market's risk appetite has been initially improved. by reducing the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate to release liquidity, it is expected that it may form a strong policy combination with future fiscal stimulus measures to support economic growth in the fourth quarter. the creation of new policy tools to support the development of the stock market has sent a clear signal to the market that the policy level supports the stock market, which is conducive to further improving the market's risk appetite. judging from the statement of the regulatory authorities this time, the market is expected to usher in incremental funds under the swap facility, funds under stock repurchase and re-loan, etc. although the specific implementation effect remains to be seen, it is already a major positive for the current a-share capital. in addition, the new policy is expected to boost residents' consumption and ease the pressure on the real estate chain. the money saved is expected to be converted into consumption power, injecting a shot in the arm for the recovery of social retail sales.

shen chao, macro strategy analyst at hsbc jinxin fund, analyzed that the implementation of the adjustment of existing mortgages will help reduce the pressure of housing loans on residents and promote the improvement of their consumption power; the further tightening of real estate policies will help the recovery of real estate demand; the announcement of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut policies will help reduce social financing costs; the creation of new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market will greatly enhance the ability of relevant institutions to obtain funds and increase stock holdings.

morgan asset management believes that the continuous introduction of financial policies reflects a positive response to the current economic situation. through measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, guiding interest rate cut expectations, reducing the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, and launching new monetary policy tools to support the capital market, it aims to reduce the financing costs of the real economy, strengthen financial support for the real economy, stabilize the capital market, and provide strong support for the high-quality development of the economy.

western profit fund believes that the reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate exceeded market expectations and was implemented in a timely manner. it is a strong response to short-term economic pressure and is expected to significantly boost market confidence. the further increase in financial support for real estate will help alleviate the core contradictions of the current short-term economy and help stabilize the fundamentals of real estate. the central bank has created special tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, reflecting the determination of the policy level to protect the capital market, which may be conducive to the recovery of the overall risk appetite of the market. in the future, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development, the ministry of finance, the national development and reform commission and other departments may have further policies to cooperate, and we can continue to pay attention to the rhythm and intensity of the implementation of subsequent policies.

"the joint release of the above policies fully demonstrates the leadership's care and attention to the market, which is of great significance to the market." hu qicong, manager of hang seng qianhai equity fund, believes that the three departments' introduction of support policies not only reduced the burden on the real economy, but also conveyed positive policy signals, from maintaining stability to fully supporting economic recovery. it also means that more policies may be introduced in the future to further stabilize market expectations and support the comprehensive recovery of the macro economy.

"lowering interest rates and reserve requirements will release a large amount of long-term low-cost funds and effectively reduce the average cost of funds in the market." bodao fund believes that stock repurchase refinancing + swap facilities will increase the source of long-term funds in the capital market and provide liquidity support to the market, which will play a significant role in activating the capital market and boosting market risk appetite. overall, this "combination punch" means that the macro policy will further increase its support for the economy and the market. with the implementation of positive policies and the emergence of subsequent effects, it will greatly boost market confidence and build a good foundation for economic stabilization and capital market improvement.

invesco great wall fund analyzed that monetary policy has taken the lead in increasing its efforts to provide more supportive monetary and financial conditions for "striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals." there is also a high probability that subsequent fiscal policies will be further strengthened to form a synergy with monetary policy and provide more support for the stabilization and recovery of the economy.

yimi fund stated that a number of major policies have actively responded to market concerns, the policy intensity has exceeded market expectations, boosted market confidence, and are an important factor supporting the market's surge.

affecting the allocation of major asset classes, a-shares may usher in a better window for long positions

publicly offered funds generally believe that the current monetary policy's support for liquidity exceeds expectations, and will have a significant impact on the price trends of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commerce, and will have a far-reaching impact on the capital market.

"it is expected to support the capital market from both fundamentals and liquidity." huaan fund index and quantitative investment department pointed out that loose monetary policy has a positive impact on stocks, bonds and commodities. from the fundamental dimension, the optimization of real estate policies directly reduces residents' loan pressure and boosts the recovery of real estate demand. from the perspective of wealth effect, after expectations improve, residents are expected to release consumption power. from the liquidity dimension, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts release incremental funds to the financial market. at the same time, for the stock market, the policy also introduced asset pledges, special re-loans and other funds, which are specifically used for repurchasing and increasing stock holdings.

looking ahead to the future market, great wall fund believes that the market has generally been cautious about future economic fundamentals and policy expectations. therefore, unexpected improvements in economic indicators and policies may trigger market increases. after the policy package is released, investors can actively look for opportunities to layout at the bottom of the market in order to seize the opportunities brought by market recovery.

shen chao analyzed that a series of policies are conducive to reducing residents' debt costs, improving residents' consumption willingness, and boosting the macro economy; at the market level, they are conducive to improving the long-term shareholder returns of listed companies and boosting market risk appetite.

"high-quality equity assets are at a historically low valuation, monetary policy remains relatively loose, and the economy is gradually stabilizing." zhang ming, deputy general manager of essence fund's value investment department, believes that the previous lack of confidence in the equity market has also been greatly boosted by multiple positive stimuli in recent times. from a medium- to long-term perspective, there are many excellent companies with reasonable valuations in the a-share and hong kong stock markets, and their long-term investment value is significant.

"the current overall valuation level of a-shares is at a relatively low level in the past decade. against the backdrop of continued recovery of the domestic economy, the federal reserve's interest rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy. combined with the fiscal policy, which may be strengthened in the second half of the year, 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds have been issued and two new policies have been fully launched. the market is expected to stabilize and rebound." morgan asset management believes that these policies will achieve their expected goals under the dual impetus of economic transformation and policy support.

morgan stanley fund said that after the market surged, it is expected that the a-share market will end its second bottoming out, and the future profit effect is expected to increase significantly. this policy combination affects both the economic fundamentals and the stock market. for the stock market, it helps to repair overly pessimistic expectations and restore market valuations to a relatively normal level. the rmb exchange rate has continued to appreciate recently, and it is expected that northbound funds may begin to flow back, and the a-share capital situation is expected to improve.

golden eagle fund pointed out that the index has broken through the previous downward channel after a sharp rise in volume under policy catalysis, and a-shares have ushered in a good long window - although fundamental expectations still need to wait for fiscal policy to take effect, the improvement in risk appetite and the easing of liquidity pressure alone are enough to drive a round of oversold rebound.

yimi fund believes that as the united states enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the easing of overseas liquidity has opened up space for domestic monetary and fiscal policies, and my country has sufficient policy tools. at the same time, after sufficient adjustments in the early stage, the valuations of a large number of high-quality targets are at the historical bottom, and it is expected that valuations will be repaired with the improvement of confidence. we are optimistic about the sustainability of this round of market rebound.

cinda australia and asia fund believes that the heavy policy combination of the central bank this time means that the domestic monetary policy space has been opened up, confirming the domestic market's expectations for interest rate adjustments, and bringing substantial benefits to both the stock market and the bond market. for the stock market, on the one hand, the liquidity released by the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate is expected to form incremental funds, providing support for the implementation of subsequent fiscal policies; on the other hand, the central bank has also specially created new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market. in addition, as the interest rate of existing mortgage loans decreases, domestic demand is expected to pick up marginally, thereby supporting the improvement of corporate profit fundamentals. for the bond market, with the confirmation of the start of the us interest rate cut cycle, against the background of a significant narrowing of the expected interest rate gap between china and the united states, the 20bp interest rate cut by the central bank this time may not be the end point. it is expected that the market interest rate center will move downward as a whole, and the downward space for bond market interest rates is still optimistic.

"it is expected that the bond market will have certain fluctuations in the short term, but the bond market is likely to still be an adjustment and buying opportunity." hang seng qianhai bond fund manager li weikan analyzed that in addition to monetary policy support, economic recovery still requires more forceful fiscal policies and industrial policies that can produce substantial changes to the real estate industry.

"it is expected that the yield curve of the bond market will show a steepening trend in the fourth quarter, and the main influencing factor is the supply of interest-bearing bonds." zhang rui, general manager of the fixed income department of essence fund, analyzed that the reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate has increased the certainty of short-term bond returns, and under the background of loose funds, the probability of rising interest rates of short-term products is low. if there is no significant increase in the supply of interest-bearing bonds, long-term bonds may still show a volatile downward trend.

which sectors are expected to benefit?

boosted by major favorable policies, a-shares and hong kong stocks experienced a long-awaited large rebound on september 24. a-share market stocks rose by 5,165, the shanghai composite index rose by 4.15%, the chinext index rose by 5.54%, and the food and beverage, non-bank and steel sectors rose the most. looking ahead to the market, which sectors will continue to benefit?

"the market is welcoming a rebound opportunity." huabao fund pointed out that the resonance of monetary, real estate and capital market policies on september 24 will help boost market risk appetite and bring a rare rebound opportunity. in particular, the creation of monetary policy support tools will help ease the short-term funding pressure in the capital market, while other real estate easing policies, deepening mergers and acquisitions, and market value management guidelines are also expected to bring more structural highlights to the market.

the allocation may be in a period of time, and we should actively look for structural opportunities. huabao fund recommends focusing on three main lines: first, the improvement of macro and micro liquidity and the continuous catalysis of themes have made the growth sector the most elastic, which is expected to become the direction with the greatest elasticity and the most active in the future. second, the previous adjustment is sufficient and the economic recovery or policy support brings rebound opportunities. third, the cyclical products are still the direction with high medium-term certainty, and the previous substantial adjustment also provides a good opportunity for layout.

in huaan fund's view, the value of equity market allocation is evident, and investment opportunities such as technological innovation, dividends, domestic consumption, and overseas expansion can be sought. overall, measures to support the economy and stabilize the capital market will help boost investor confidence. the current equity market implies more pessimistic expectations, and the risk premium level is one standard deviation higher than the historical mean, so the equity market allocation has a high cost-effectiveness.

specifically, huaan fund believes that there are still investment opportunities in technological innovation, dividends, and going overseas. in the hong kong market, internet platform companies with domestic demand competitiveness, as well as the automobile, home appliance, and service-oriented consumer industries that benefit from domestic demand policies in the a-share market, are worthy of attention. the wave of intelligence is accelerating the upgrading and going overseas of china's automobile, machinery and other manufacturing industries.

in terms of industries, great wall fund recommends paying attention to the following areas: first, financial institutions that benefit from the central bank's capital market support policies; second, industries such as real estate chain, steel, coal, etc. that are affected by interest rate cuts and real estate support policies and have suffered large declines in the previous period; third, consumer-related industries that benefit from the reduction in existing mortgage interest rates and support for old-for-new programs, such as home appliances, automobiles, and social services; fourth, industries such as light industry, building materials, food, and beauty that have fallen sharply since late may and are expected to benefit from the increase in market risk appetite.

"dividend assets are expected to benefit from the downward trend in market risk-free interest rates and the improvement in the quality of listed companies." shen chao pointed out that at the industry level, cyclical and consumer industries related to domestic demand will benefit from the implementation of interest rate cuts, while the large financial industry will benefit from capital market support policies.

morgan asset management believes that the a-share market, especially the strategic emerging industries that represent new quality productivity, is standing at a new starting point for growth. with the stable development of the capital market and the gradual improvement of investor confidence, it is expected to become an important force in promoting sustained economic growth.

zhang ming pointed out that in both a-shares and hong kong stocks, there are excellent companies in many industries whose competitive advantages are still significant, and their market share will have the opportunity to continue to increase in the future, but the current valuations of these companies have generally fallen to the bottom 20% of history. in the future, as earnings and valuations recover, the investment value of these companies is worth paying attention to. from the industry level, zhang ming is mainly optimistic about the opportunities for bottom-up stock selection in industries such as banking, textiles and clothing, gold and jewelry, building materials, coal, home appliances, and transportation.