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looking back at the growth trajectory of the past three years, the competition for the no. 1 industrial city has quietly entered the "4 trillion" stage.

in 2021, shenzhen and suzhou's total industrial output value above the designated size were the first to cross the 4 trillion yuan threshold. in 2022, shanghai also joined the "4 trillion" club. in 2023, the "performance" of shenzhen, suzhou and shanghai was fixed at 4.85 trillion yuan, 4.43 trillion yuan and 3.94 trillion yuan respectively.

top cities need top industries to support them. now, the three cities are facing a "critical match point" -

recently, suzhou held a city-wide conference on the high-quality development of the new energy industry and released the "suzhou new energy industry high-quality development three-year action plan (2024-2026)", striving to exceed 1 trillion yuan in output value in the new energy industry by 2026, becoming suzhou's fourth trillion-yuan industrial cluster after electronic information, high-end equipment, and advanced materials.

coincidentally, shenzhen has previously proposed to build four trillion-level, four 500 billion-level, and a number of 100 billion-level industrial clusters by 2025; shanghai's goal is to build four trillion-level industrial clusters in electronic information, life sciences, automobiles, and high-end equipment by 2027.

it is foreseeable that in the next two to three years, the three cities will start a new round of competition in cultivating trillion-dollar industries, which will to some extent affect the competitive landscape of the first industrial city. from the current perspective, what does a trillion-dollar industry mean? how will suzhou break through in the fierce competition?

trillion-dollar industry

"an industrial cluster with a scale of tens of billions and an industrial cluster with a scale of trillions have very different appeals to scientific and technological innovation, talent aggregation, and the local layout of related service industries." zhang kai, associate researcher at the institute of industrial economics of the china academy of information and communications technology, analyzed to chengshu that the scale effect brought about by a trillion-dollar industry is very considerable.

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in his opinion, where there are trillion-level industrial clusters, the economic activity and development of other industries will be better, especially in the fields of automobiles, electronics, mechanical equipment, biomedicine, etc., which are not only labor-intensive, capital-intensive or resource-dependent, but also require a large number of high-quality talents, innovation, finance, logistics and related production service industry support.

industry is an important engine of national economic growth, and the trillion-dollar cluster is the "artery" of the industrial economy.

according to the analysis of the china academy of information and communications technology, from 2012 to 2022, the number of regional trillion-level industrial clusters increased from 13 to 19. in addition to guangdong (4), jiangsu (4), zhejiang (3), shandong (2), and hebei (1), five new provinces were added, namely fujian (1), shanxi (1), inner mongolia (1), shaanxi (1), and liaoning (1).

the main business income of these trillion-level industrial clusters in the region accounts for more than 30% of the province (region), and has become an important pillar of the regional industrial economy. the main business income of trillion-level industrial clusters in guangdong, jiangsu, shanxi and other provinces once accounted for nearly 60% of their respective provinces, which shows their support.

the same is true for trillion-dollar cities. it is in guangdong and jiangsu, where the most trillion-dollar industrial clusters are concentrated, that shenzhen and suzhou, two top industrial powerhouses, emerged, forming a "three kingdoms" battle for china's top industrial cities with shanghai.

entering 2024, the "fight" between shenzhen, suzhou and shanghai is particularly fierce. in the first seven months of this year, the total industrial output value of suzhou and shanghai was 2.60 trillion yuan and 2.17 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.60% and -1.10% respectively. shenzhen has not yet released specific data, but judging from the growth rate of "11.50%", it still maintains a large advantage.

not long ago, at the suzhou new energy industry high-quality development conference, the "suzhou new energy industry high-quality development three-year action plan (2024-2026)" (hereinafter referred to as the "new energy plan") was officially released, striving to exceed 1 trillion yuan in output value of the city's new energy industry by 2026, becoming suzhou's fourth trillion-yuan industrial cluster after electronics, high-end equipment, and advanced materials.

the official inclusion of the trillion-yuan target in the special action plan shows suzhou's ambition and courage. prior to this, shenzhen and shanghai had already taken the lead.

in march this year, shenzhen's "implementation plan on accelerating the development of new productive forces and further promoting the high-quality development of strategic emerging industry clusters and future industries" proposed that by 2025, four trillion-level, four 500 billion-level, and a number of 100 billion-level industrial clusters will be created.

in june, the "shanghai implementation plan for accelerating new industrialization" also made it clear that by 2027, four trillion-level industrial clusters in electronic information, life sciences and health, automobiles, and high-end equipment and two 500 billion-level industrial clusters in advanced materials and fashion consumer goods will be built, and the total industrial output value will reach a new level of 5 trillion yuan.

this also means that the competition among shenzhen, shanghai and suzhou will become more intense.

suzhou path

it is worth noting that while releasing the "new energy plan", suzhou also released two special industry plans, the "suzhou photovoltaic industry high-quality development plan (2024-2030)" and the "suzhou new energy storage industry high-quality development plan (2024-2030)", and the path to cultivating the fourth trillion-dollar industry has gradually become clear.

it is mentioned that by 2026, the output value of suzhou's photovoltaic-related industries will strive to reach 180 billion yuan, with about 5 companies with an output value of over 10 billion yuan and more than 20 national-level specialized "little giant" companies; the revenue scale of new energy storage-related industries will strive to exceed 120 billion yuan, and 10 new energy storage companies with an output value of more than 4 billion yuan will be cultivated or introduced...

it is necessary to point out that the statistical scope of trillion-level industrial clusters in various places is different and is not consistent with the industrial scope of the statistical yearbook. however, to a certain extent, suzhou's "grouping" of the three hot industries of photovoltaics, energy storage and new energy vehicles to impact the "fourth trillion-level industry" undoubtedly shows suzhou's urgency.

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of course, suzhou has the confidence to create the fourth trillion-dollar industrial cluster.

according to statistics, as of the end of last year, the output value of suzhou's new energy and new energy vehicle industries exceeded 750 billion yuan. driven by the strong growth of photovoltaics, energy storage and other industries, it has the strength to become a trillion-yuan industry within two years.

from electronic information, high-end equipment, advanced materials to new energy, suzhou's plan to build a trillion-level industrial cluster is becoming increasingly clear.

"clusters need to have close upstream and downstream supporting relationships." zhang kai believes that both jiangsu and suzhou actually benefit from having a number of leading enterprises in the region. these enterprises rely on themselves to drive the development of upstream and downstream supporting facilities, and at the same time spawn many enterprises. this is their outstanding feature.

specifically in the field of new energy, the new photovoltaic materials and perovskite materials industry chain led by gcl is gaining more and more attention, and new green energy application demonstration scenarios such as direct supply of photovoltaic storage, power transmission through walls, and local consumption have been realized one by one in suzhou industrial park. the integration and innovation of new energy industries and application scenarios are driving suzhou towards new goals.

in zhang kai's view, suzhou has made many important arrangements in the new energy industry in recent years, but overall, the concentration and competitiveness of sub-industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles need to be further improved.

for example, suzhou has strong companies in new energy vehicle parts and automotive electronics, but from a cluster perspective, complete vehicles are still a shortcoming, the energy storage scale is not large, and the photovoltaic industry is not concentrated enough.

how to make up for the shortcomings in the integration and innovation of the industrial chain has also become an important test for suzhou to build a new trillion-level industry.

three cities race

in the past few years, guangdong and jiangsu have been almost neck and neck in regional trillion-level industrial clusters, with shenzhen and suzhou being the key supports.

data shows that jiangsu has four trillion-level industries, namely energy and chemical, mechanical equipment, steel, and electronic information, while guangdong has four trillion-level industries, namely energy and chemical, mechanical equipment, electronic information, and automobiles. both their traditional and emerging industries are highly competitive.

in the greater bay area and the yangtze river delta region, the two manufacturing powerhouses of shenzhen and suzhou are the starting and connection points for many industrial cycles.

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"from the perspective of a city, suzhou's location and industrial advantages play an important role in the cultivation of jiangsu's industrial clusters. it is close to shanghai and can have supporting relationships with shanghai in many industries, and also enjoys shanghai's innovation and talent spillover effects." zhang kai said that if a large number of resource elements were not gathered in these regions, its manufacturing development might find it difficult to produce this kind of "chemical reaction."

this "chemical reaction" has also made suzhou one of the cities with the largest industrial power, the most complete supporting facilities, and the strongest vertical integration capabilities in china. in 2021, suzhou's total industrial output value exceeded 4 trillion yuan for the first time. the outside world's call for suzhou to become the "first industrial city" has gradually grown, but in the end it lost to shenzhen with a slight advantage of more than 3 billion yuan.

in that year, shenzhen (4134.132 billion yuan), suzhou (4130.81 billion yuan), and shanghai (3949.854 billion yuan) ranked in the top three in terms of total industrial output value. however, since then, shanghai's total industrial output value has fluctuated, and the gap between suzhou and shenzhen has also tended to widen.

however, various signs show that suzhou is making a strong comeback. in the first half of this year, suzhou's gdp reached 1,205.94 billion yuan, a growth rate of 6.2%, leading the nine trillion-yuan cities in the yangtze river delta.

among them, the output value of electronic information and automobile manufacturing increased by 11.8% and 10.5% respectively, contributing 73.0% to the growth of total industrial output value above designated size. among the major industrial products, automobile output doubled year-on-year, and the output of high-tech products such as sensors, medical instruments and equipment, optoelectronic devices and integrated circuits achieved double-digit growth, which also conveyed the strong momentum of industrial transformation and upgrading behind it.

suzhou's goal has become increasingly clear, which is to form four trillion-level leading industries of electronic information, high-end equipment, advanced materials, and new energy in about three years, with a total industrial output value of 5 trillion yuan and gdp reaching 3 trillion yuan.

this goal has been emphasized on many important occasions, and with the release of the "new energy plan", suzhou's fourth trillion-level industry has entered the sprint period. for suzhou, this is not only the necessary support for gdp to exceed 3 trillion yuan, but also the key to holding the ticket to the competition for the "first industrial city" and competing with shenzhen and shanghai.

and this is bound to be a dual contest of speed and quality.