the policy exceeded expectations and the market was booming across the board. how much "long money" is coming?
2024-09-24
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on september 24, the financial regulatory authorities announced a series of important policies, and the three major a-share indexes all rose by more than 4%. among them, the shanghai composite index closed up 4.15%, the largest single-day increase since july 6, 2020. at the same time, the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets reached 974.4 billion yuan, a 4-month high.
"this press conference is full of sincerity and aims to promote a virtuous cycle of economic growth through the demand side." zhang yongzhi, deputy general manager of the fixed income department of huashang fund, told caixin that "maintaining the stability of my country's capital market and boosting investor confidence" are the core topics. the three departments are collectively working to support the capital market and injecting liquidity funds into the stock market through multiple channels. national investment institutions, fund companies and other market institutions and listed companies are expected to obtain sufficient liquidity support, which may provide better support for the stabilization and rise of the stock market.
in recent years, the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and the vigorous development of equity-based public funds have been mentioned by regulators many times, and the protective signal is clear. in the process of market adjustment, incremental funds from various institutions are also gradually entering the market. in the view of industry insiders, the meeting mentioned the creation of new policy tools to support the development of the stock market, sending a clear signal that the policy level supports the stock market, further enhancing the market's risk appetite, and a-shares are expected to usher in a new batch of incremental funds.
hu qicong, manager of hang seng qianhai equity fund, said that although in the short term, it still requires a package of policies such as fiscal policy and time to verify in order to reverse the market's pessimistic expectations and the downward trend of the economy, he believes that today's policy support is just the beginning. the market is already at a relatively low position, and it is recommended to give the market more confidence and patience.
market boost, big gains across the board
on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference on financial support for high-quality economic development. the main leaders of the people's bank of china, the financial regulatory bureau, and the china securities regulatory commission responded to many market concerns, such as the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, mergers and acquisitions, market value management, and huijin's increased holdings of etfs. stimulated by a number of major favorable policies, the a-share market has rebounded significantly.
data from the market showed that the three major indexes opened with a volatile rise, and the gains continued to expand in the afternoon. by the close, the three major indexes all rose by more than 4%, with the shanghai composite index, chinext index, and shenzhen component index rising by 4.15%, 5.54%, and 4.36%, respectively. at the same time, the turnover of a-shares increased significantly, reaching 974.4 billion yuan, a four-month high.
in terms of sectors, 31 shenwan first-level industries closed higher, with food and beverage and non-bank financial sectors leading the gains, up 6.73% and 6.05% respectively. in addition, the securities index also rose 5.86%, with all constituent stocks "in the green", and 34 securities stocks rose more than 5% in a single day. east fortune, pacific securities, capital securities, jinlong securities, and guohai securities all rose by 10% or more.
similar scenarios also occurred in brokerage-related theme etfs. according to statistics from china business network, there are 17 etf products with "securities" in the names of the tracking indexes, all of which rose on september 24, with an average increase of more than 6%. among them, dongcai csi securities company 30 etf had the highest increase of 7.27%, followed by yinhua csi all-share securities company etf, which rose 6.77% in a single day.
judging from the feedback from the market, the trading of brokerage-related theme etfs is very active. cathay csi all-share securities company etf ranked first with a turnover of 2.642 billion yuan, more than four times the previous day; the daily turnover of huabao csi all-share securities etf also increased from 192 million yuan to 1.317 billion yuan, a significant increase.
in addition, many broad-based etfs saw a significant increase in trading volume throughout the day, such as huatai-pinebridge csi 300 etf, which had a trading volume of 13.213 billion yuan on the day, nearly 3.5 times the 2.948 billion yuan the day before. in addition, the daily trading volume of products such as e fund chinext etf, huaxia sse 50 etf, and southern csi 500 etf were all over 4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5 to 4 times from the previous month.
"the capital market policy proposals exceeded expectations, and the policies are expected to be implemented soon. although the policy support at the funding level has limited improvement on the fundamentals, it will help ease the market's liquidity pressure and improve market risk appetite." hong zichao, a researcher at the equity research department of golden eagle fund, told caixin.
hong zichao believes that today's index has broken through the previous downward channel after a large increase in volume under the catalysis of policies, and a-shares have ushered in a good window for long positions. "although fundamental expectations still need to wait for fiscal policies to take effect, the improvement in risk appetite and the easing of liquidity pressure alone are enough to drive a round of oversold rebound."
vigorously develop equity funds
the reporter noticed that "vigorously developing equity-based public offering funds" was mentioned again by the regulator. the content pointed out that the focus is on urging fund companies to further correct their business philosophy, adhere to the investment return orientation, focus on improving investment research and service capabilities, and create more products that meet the needs of the people. further optimize the registration of equity fund products and vigorously promote the innovation of broad-based fund products.
in fact, vigorously developing equity funds has been regarded as one of the trends in the public offering industry. wind data shows that as of september 23, the number of equity funds, including stock funds and mixed funds, was 7,165 (only counting initial funds), with a total of more than 6.18 trillion fund shares, which has increased compared with the end of last year.
among them, with the dual support of policies and funds, the approval and issuance of new products in the etf track can be described as "speedy". taking the most popular a500etf as an example, on the evening of september 23, the first batch of 10 csi a500etf products have all completed fundraising, which will bring 20 billion incremental funds to a-shares.
as the first core broad-based index since the new "nine national policies", the csi a500 index has attracted great attention from various funds before it was launched. data shows that the first batch of products were reported on september 5, approved the next day, and collectively issued on the 10th of the same month. it has only been a short half month since the fundraising ended.
at the end of the final battle, the csi a500 index was officially released. in the view of industry insiders, the efficiency and strength of the recent fundraising and listing of index products also reflects the determination of the regulatory authorities to vigorously develop equity funds. "the regulatory authorities are making systematic arrangements to increase the introduction of medium- and long-term funds, and the market has actually shown some signs, which will also stimulate fund companies to accelerate product layout and operation promotion." said an insider of a fund company in south china.
as a result, 6 products ended fundraising ahead of schedule, with the fastest one, harvest csi a500 etf, reaching the fundraising limit in just 4 days. at present, the first batch of csi a500 etfs have all been oversubscribed to varying degrees and need to start proportional placement. according to statistics from china business news, 19 products with confirmed data have adopted the last day or full-process proportional confirmation, and the proportional results range from 49.45% to 97%.
"the csi a500 index is demonstrating obvious mid- to long-term allocation value and is expected to become another important target for domestic and foreign funds to allocate core a-share assets." liu jiayin, fund manager of the harvest csi a500 etf, told caixin that after the previous adjustments in a-shares, the valuations of leading companies in various industries have been at a historically low level. combined with the possible improvement in profitability of listed companies and the interest rate cut cycle in the future, more funds are expected to flow into the market through broad-based etfs in the future.
"index investment connects mass investors and social funds on one end and the real economy on the other end. it shoulders the multiple missions of guiding resource allocation, supporting industrial development, and serving residents' wealth management needs." liu jiayin believes that the new "nine national policies" clearly propose to vigorously promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and continuously strengthen long-term investment forces. promoting the development of index investment is an important means to build a "long-term money and long-term investment" policy system.
incremental funds are on the way
in this meeting, the incremental policies related to the capital market mainly came from two aspects. one is the creation of securities, funds and insurance swap facilities and special re-loans to support repurchase and increase holdings; the other is to further support the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, such as vigorously developing equity public funds, improving the institutional environment of "long-term money and long-term investment", further supporting the central huijin investment company to increase its holdings and expand its investment scope, and continuously improve the capital market ecology.
many industry insiders interviewed said that a-shares are expected to usher in a new batch of incremental funds. zhang yongzhi said that while stimulating demand is the core of the current policy, the 500 billion yuan securities, fund and insurance company swap facility and 300 billion yuan stock repurchase special re-loan created by the central bank will help promote the overall liquidity supply of market institutions such as national investment institutions, fund companies and listed companies, and provide financial support for the stock market, which may reach trillions of yuan, and better support the stable development of the stock market.
in recent years, policy signals guiding medium- and long-term funds to enter the market have been released intensively, and various incremental funds have entered the market one after another. on the one hand, hundreds of billions of funds have entered the market with the help of etfs. wind data shows that as of september 23, the net inflow of stock etf products in the entire market since the beginning of the year was 755.757 billion yuan.
among them, broad-based etfs with market influence and representativeness are naturally more favored, and these products have attracted more than 10 billion yuan in funds. according to statistics from china business news, etf products tracking the seven broad-based tracks have received a total of 772.836 billion yuan in funds this year. for example, the csi 300 etf has attracted 535.084 billion yuan, and the etf products tracking the csi 1000 and csi 500 have a net inflow of more than 60 billion yuan.
the massive increase in funds has also pushed the scale of etf products to new highs. on september 23, the scale of e fund csi 300 etf exceeded 200 billion yuan (200.554 billion yuan), the scale of huatai-pinebridge csi 300 etf approached 300 billion yuan (291.356 billion yuan), and the scale of china asset management csi 300 etf, china asset management sse 50 etf and harvest csi 300 etf all exceeded 120 billion yuan.
the large amount of "bullets" obtained by stock etfs is undoubtedly due to the efforts of "national team players". take central huijin investment co., ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "huijin investment") as an example. as of the end of the second quarter, huijin investment held a total of 223.206 billion fund shares, an increase of 183 billion shares from the end of last year; the average holding ratio increased from 34.6% to 47.48%.
according to statistics from china business news, in the first half of the year, huijin investment mainly increased its holdings by 48.589 billion shares of e fund csi 300 etf and 29.407 billion shares of huatai-pinebridge csi 300 etf. in addition, products such as hua xia csi 300 etf, harvest csi 300 etf, and hua xia sse 50 etf also received increases ranging from 16 billion to 18.1 billion shares.
judging from the information disclosed in the interim report, the leading role of the "national team" is obvious, and other institutional investors are also quietly increasing their holdings. taking the e fund csi 300 etf as an example, among the top ten holders, in addition to central huijin, there are also china life, dajia life, aia life and other institutions. for example, china life's holdings in the first half of the year increased from 471 million shares to 3.619 billion shares, an increase of 3.148 billion shares.
on the other hand, insurance funds, as representatives of medium- and long-term funds and patient capital, have significantly increased their holdings this year. so far, insurance companies have held stakes in more than ten listed companies this year, a record high in nearly four years. wind data shows that as of the second quarter report, insurance companies appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of 967 a-share companies, an increase of 90 from the previous period; the total market value of their holdings was 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.581 billion yuan from the previous period.
according to wu qing, chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, as of the end of august this year, professional institutional investors such as equity public funds, insurance funds, and various pension funds held a total of nearly 15 trillion yuan in a-share market value, more than doubling from the beginning of 2019, and the proportion of a-share market value increased from 17% to 22.2%.
hu qicong, manager of hang seng qianhai equity fund, said that the support policies introduced by the three departments at this time not only reduced the burden on the real economy, but also conveyed a positive policy signal, from maintaining stability to fully supporting economic recovery. it also means that more policies may be introduced in the future to further stabilize market expectations and support the overall recovery of the macro economy. he suggested giving the market more confidence and patience.
(this article comes from china business network)
