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looking back over the past decade, the global new energy vehicle industry has undergone unprecedented major changes in terms of market structure, consumer preferences, technology routes, and supply chain systems. according to statistics, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles have grown rapidly at an average annual compound growth rate of over 60% in the past four years. in the first half of 2024, china's production and sales of new energy vehicles were 4.929 million and 4.944 million, respectively, up 30.1% and 32% year-on-year, respectively. in addition, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 35.2%, and the importance of new energy vehicles in the overall automobile market has become increasingly prominent.

new energy vehicles have become a trend of the times, which not only led to the rapid rise of new car-making forces, but also attracted more new supply chain players to join the game. among them, the automotive parts track, including automotive aluminum, solid-state batteries, and autonomous driving, has continued to improve. today, when accelerating the formation of new quality productivity has become the theme of the times, the downstream industry chain is writing a new chapter for the rapid development of new energy vehicles around the world.

the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is gradually increasing, and the leading car companies are gradually taking shape

the automotive industry is developing rapidly in the direction of electrification, intelligence and greening, which has become a global consensus on addressing climate change and promoting low-carbon economic growth. riding on the policy, the growth of new energy vehicles has become a general trend, and the transformation and upgrading of the industry has been fast-forwarded. my country's new energy vehicle market is even more soaring. according to data from the china association of automobile manufacturers, in the first half of april 2024, china's new energy vehicle retail penetration rate reached 50.39%, making it the market with a penetration rate of over 50% among all major automobile markets in the world. in comparison, in march 2024, the penetration rates of new energy vehicles in the united states and the european union were 9.3% and 20.1%, respectively.

the rapid expansion of the market has led to the rise of a number of new energy vehicle companies, and new energy vehicle companies from china are reshaping the global automotive industry. mckinsey research shows that as china's automotive industry matures, the elimination process in the auto market will also accelerate. china's auto market is expected to gradually concentrate on leading companies, just like the development trajectory of mature automotive industrial markets, and the market share of the top ten companies is expected to exceed 90%. this trend has also successfully led to fierce competition in the upstream supply chain, and obtaining orders from leading auto companies has become a common goal for auto parts suppliers.

the automotive parts industry has entered the fast lane, with technological innovation accelerating and quality improving

my country's auto parts industry has benefited from the establishment of factories by overseas auto brands and auto parts companies in china, which is the result of the country's "market for technology" policy. with the sharp increase in domestic sales of new energy vehicles, chinese auto parts companies have shifted from "cost advantage" to "research and development, integration, innovation" and other high-quality development paths, and gradually moved overseas. with the improvement of comprehensive competitiveness, the domestic parts supporting system has gradually been integrated with the world, and china's auto parts industry will continue to maintain a good development trend. in addition, logically speaking, 2023 is the destocking cycle of the inventory cycle, and the growth of parts shipments is weaker than the growth of downstream demand; in 2024, parts shipments should gradually be stronger than the growth of downstream demand, and as demand gradually recovers, the inventory center is expected to increase steadily. according to the forecast of the prospective research institute, the main business income of my country's auto parts industry will exceed 5.5 trillion yuan by 2026.

despite this, due to the short development time, the scale of my country's auto parts companies is generally small compared with the leading international auto parts companies. although the number of auto parts companies in the country is conservatively estimated to be more than 100,000, the overall market concentration is low, and there are only a handful of leading manufacturers. despite this, with years of industry precipitation and market tempering, china still has some excellent companies such as catl, shuanglin co., ltd., dolly technology, and suzhou lilai intelligent manufacturing. they are down-to-earth, focus on business logic and the comprehensive strength of the industrial chain, strive to catch up with the development of the industry, and add luster to new energy vehicles.

among them, catl, as the leader of the power battery industry, ranks first in both global and chinese market share, with obvious advantages. its bms (battery management system) + pack model layout has become the main business model of industry leaders. at present, the domestic bms market is relatively concentrated, with many third-party manufacturers, and vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers are accelerating their layout. catl is expected to stand out in the future industry competition with its first-mover advantage and occupy more market share.

in the field of automotive seat components, shuanglin co., ltd., as a long-established enterprise, has been developing its own horizontal seat actuator since 2000, and has achieved technological breakthroughs and achieved multiple indicators comparable to those of international manufacturers. its seat adjusters, horizontal slide rail motors, backrest angle adjustment motors and other products have received orders from relevant customers, and are expected to continue to release performance as the automotive industry expands.

as key components that are indispensable in vehicle manufacturing, automotive stamping parts and shearing parts have gradually stabilized their competition landscape after years of development. as one of many high-quality automotive stamping parts companies, dolly technology has strong mold design and development capabilities and automated production capabilities, and can meet the development requirements of vehicle manufacturers at different stages. in recent years, benefiting from the domestic and foreign vehicle model cycles, the automotive "stamping die + stamping parts" track has received extensive attention from the market.

in addition, suzhou lilai intelligent manufacturing, which has also attracted much attention, has been deeply involved in the industry for more than 20 years and has a mature business model. it is a leading company in the industry that has integrated processes such as material shearing, mold manufacturing, stamping, welding, assembly, and surface treatment. its upstream is the steel and aluminum industries, and its downstream is mainly automobile oems and their parts suppliers, which is highly consistent with the development trend of the automobile industry. benefiting from the productivity layout close to the oems and rich product quality service capabilities, the company has accumulated a large number of high-quality customer groups with stable cooperative relationships, including: nio, xiaopeng, ideal, byd, geely, xiaomi and other new energy vehicle head customers; magna, gestamp, adient, faurecia and other top 50 well-known parts manufacturers in the world; mercedes-benz, bmw, nissan, honda, saic gm, jaguar land rover and other old automobile companies. in recent years, the company's scale and efficiency have maintained a growth rate that matches the speed of industry development.

lightweight and new energy development drive the explosion of aluminum materials for co-driving vehicles

against the backdrop of the rapid evolution of core technologies in the automotive industry and the reshaping of the supply chain, intelligence and lightweighting have become the main development directions for new energy vehicles. among them, automotive aluminum alloys have become one of the most popular tracks for new energy vehicles due to their excellent lightweight structural performance and outstanding electrical and thermal conductivity. at the same time, this type of product has three barriers, namely cost, technology, and refined management. while it brings huge challenges to companies entering the market, it also brings solid and continuous profits to its industrial chain.

according to changjiang securities, based on lightweight and new energy dual drive, the use of aluminum alloy in new energy vehicles is 41.6% more than that in traditional fuel vehicles. the cagr of automotive aluminum demand is expected to reach 9% from 2021 to 2025, of which the cagr of aluminum used in fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will reach 4% and 40% respectively. in addition, the proportion of aluminum used in new energy vehicles has rapidly increased from 9% in 2021 to 26%.

it is worth noting that lilai intelligent manufacturing has core competitiveness in the field of automotive aluminum by virtue of its long-term deep cultivation of steel and aluminum shearing products. its steel and aluminum shearing products accounted for 85.67% of its main business in the first half of 2023, and its business growth potential is closely related to the development prospects of automotive aluminum. in 2022, the company purchased and sold about 50,000 tons of aluminum for car bodies, accounting for 15.20% of my country's automobile body aluminum shipments. the market share is expected to steadily increase with the mainstream development trends such as lightweighting and new energy.

overall, with the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market demand for related high-quality auto parts suppliers is expected to continue to expand. at the same time, as intelligence and lightweight become the mainstream development direction of auto companies, my country's auto parts companies are expected to help domestic new energy vehicles further increase their global market share by relying on cost, advanced manufacturing capabilities, rapid response and synchronous r&d capabilities.