an article to understand the fiscal data for the first eight months: the decline in revenue has slightly widened, and expenditures are yet to be strengthened
2024-09-21
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national fiscal revenue remains sluggish.
according to the ministry of finance, the national general public budget revenue in august this year was about 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, a slightly larger decline than before. the national government fund revenue in august this year was 352.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%, also a larger decline than before.
since the monthly data changes relatively greatly, the cumulative data can provide a more comprehensive view of the fiscal revenue situation since the beginning of this year.
data from the ministry of finance shows that from january to august, the national general public budget revenue was about 14.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. why has this fiscal revenue declined this year?
the first reason is related to special factors. in order to ease the financial pressure on enterprises, china implemented a tax deferral policy for small and medium-sized enterprises in the manufacturing industry as early as 2022. the tax deferral income was delayed until 2023, raising the base last year. in addition, new tax reduction and fee reduction policies such as individual income tax reduction were introduced in the second half of 2023. the tail-end reduction factor of this new policy also affected some of this year's income.
data from the ministry of finance shows that after deducting the impact of the above special factors, the national general public budget revenue grew by about 1% in comparable terms in the first eight months of this year.
this comparable growth rate is also lower than the economic growth rate. this is because fiscal revenue is calculated at current prices, while economic growth is calculated at constant prices. since the beginning of this year, prices have been low, causing the industrial producer price index (ppi) to continue to grow negatively, which has led to the growth rate of tax revenue calculated at current prices being lower than the economic growth rate. the economic growth rate has slowed down since the beginning of this year, which has also constrained the growth of income tax.
data from the ministry of finance showed that in the first eight months of this year, tax revenue in the national general public budget was about 12.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%.
in terms of major taxes, in the first eight months of this year, the largest tax category, domestic value-added tax, fell by 4.9% year-on-year, mainly due to factors such as a high base in the same period last year and a reduction in revenue due to policies. the second largest tax category, corporate income tax, fell by 5% year-on-year, which was related to the increase in the amount of tax exemptions and reductions enjoyed by companies under tax and fee preferential policies and the substantial increase in the amount of losses made up by companies during the covid-19 pandemic, as well as the reduction in profits of some companies due to operating difficulties.
the third largest tax category, domestic consumption tax, increased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first eight months, mainly driven by the growth of production and sales of refined oil, cigarettes, alcohol, etc. the fourth largest tax category, personal income tax, decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, which was affected by the policy of increasing the standard of special additional deductions for personal income tax issued in the middle of last year, and was also related to the sharp decline in income from property transfers such as houses.
the real estate market continued to be sluggish. among the land and real estate-related taxes in the first eight months, the deed tax and land value-added tax revenues continued to decline, and the decline slightly widened. affected by the tail effect of last year's policy of halving the securities transaction stamp tax, the securities transaction stamp tax in the first eight months fell by 55.5% year-on-year.
in order to make up for the decrease in tax revenue, local governments have stepped up efforts to mobilize existing assets and resources, which has led to rapid growth in non-tax revenue.
data from the ministry of finance showed that in the first eight months of this year, non-tax revenue in the national general public budget was approximately 2.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year.
compared with the slight decline in general public budget revenue, due to the continued downturn in the real estate market, local land sales revenue continued to decline sharply, which led to a sharp decline in government fund revenue, which mainly relies on land sales revenue, and the decline continued to expand.
data from the ministry of finance showed that in the first eight months of this year, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights in the local government fund budget was about 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%. in july and august, the revenue fell by more than 40%.
compared with the budget at the beginning of the year, both the national general public budget revenue and government fund revenue were lower than expected at the beginning of the year.
relevant officials from the ministry of finance judged that in the next few months, as macroeconomic policies take effect, the economic recovery will continue to consolidate, and the impact of special factors will gradually subside, which will support the growth of fiscal revenue (i.e. the national general public budget revenue).
however, many experts told caixin that since the downward trend in land transfer revenue is difficult to change in the short term, government fund revenue is expected to still show a significant decline throughout the year.
under the principle of "expenditure based on revenue", fiscal revenue has weakened, resulting in overall fiscal expenditure being restricted.
according to the ministry of finance, in the first eight months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure was about 17.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. this growth rate has declined compared with the previous seven months, with the expenditure in august falling by 6.7% year-on-year.
judging from the main expenditure items of the national general public budget, people's livelihood expenditures are still guaranteed, such as social security and employment expenditures increased by 3.3% year-on-year. infrastructure expenditures generally maintained a certain level of strength, such as urban and rural community expenditures increased by 6.5% year-on-year. however, the growth rate of people's livelihood and infrastructure expenditures has slowed down compared with the previous period.
due to the decline in land transfer income, government fund expenditure has dropped sharply this year. however, the decline in expenditure has narrowed slightly due to the gradual acceleration of the issuance of local government special bonds.
data from the ministry of finance showed that from january to august, the national government fund budget expenditure was 481.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. this decline was narrower than the previous seven months (-18.5%).
as downward pressure on the economy has increased and broad fiscal spending has declined, many experts have recently called for greater intensity of proactive fiscal policies.
xiong yuan, chief economist of guosheng securities, believes that the current economic downward pressure is not small, and it is more difficult to maintain the annual 5% growth rate. incremental policies are expected to be introduced in the near future, especially the central government's leverage increase. specifically, on the fiscal side, according to estimates, the fiscal revenue gap this year may exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating that the possibility of increasing the budget and expanding the deficit this year has greatly increased.
luo zhiheng, chief economist of guangdong securities, told caixin that it is possible to consider adding to the budget deficit at present, and at the same time, the growth rate of expenditure can be boosted by implementing the established fiscal policies as soon as possible. for example, accelerating the issuance and use of ultra-long-term treasury bonds and special bonds is also an important manifestation of proactive fiscal policy.
jin xiandong, director of the policy research office of the national development and reform commission, said at a press conference of the national development and reform commission recently that it is necessary to increase macro-control efforts, strengthen policy pre-research and reserves, and introduce a number of incremental policy measures in a timely manner that are highly operational, effective, and accessible to the people and enterprises.
wu qiying, a senior macro analyst at gf securities, said that looking forward to the subsequent fiscal policy space, existing fiscal resources can continue to be used, such as the 800 billion yuan of ordinary treasury bonds. the scope of use of new special bonds can also be expanded, such as the acquisition of idle land and storage of existing housing, which can solve the current problem of insufficient resources for storage and destocking. in addition, it is also possible to consider further adjusting and expanding the scope of use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which can be used in areas that have a faster pull on the current economy and a greater impact on micro-expectations, such as equipment upgrades, technological innovation investment, major project infrastructure, and more flexible consumption and service industries.
(this article comes from china business network)
