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in the morning trading today, the september lpr quotation was released, and the 1-year and 5-year varieties remained unchanged at 3.35% and 3.85% respectively. at the same time, the central bank conducted 571.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with an operating interest rate of 1.70%, the same as last time. today, 236.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired.

so why didn’t the interest rate adjust this time? on september 5, zou lan, director of the monetary policy department of the people’s bank of china, said that due to factors such as the speed of bank deposits diversion to asset management products and the extent of the narrowing of bank net interest margins, there are still certain constraints on the further downward trend of deposit and loan interest rates.

after the above news was released, the a50 futures index plummeted, while the rmb surged again. some analysts said that under this background, the market still expects that the start of the global interest rate cut will further expand the autonomy of my country's monetary policy. entering the fourth quarter, the central bank may still introduce incremental policies.

new lpr quotation released

on september 20, the people's bank of china authorized the national interbank funding center to announce the september loan market benchmark rate (lpr) quotes. the one-year lpr was 3.35%, the same as last month; the lpr for more than five years was 3.85%, the same as last month.

in fact, relevant officials of the central bank have previously conducted expectation management on monetary policy. on september 5, zou lan, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, said that the policy effect of the reserve requirement ratio cut at the beginning of the year is still continuing to show. at present, the average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7%, and there is still room for improvement. in terms of interest rates, the central bank continues to promote a steady decline in the overall social financing cost. since the beginning of this year, the market quotation rates for loans with a term of one year and more than five years have fallen by 0.1 and 0.35 percentage points respectively, driving the average loan interest rate to continue to decline. at the same time, affected by factors such as the speed of bank deposits diversion to asset management products and the extent of the narrowing of bank net interest margins, there are still certain constraints on the further decline of deposit and loan interest rates. the central bank will closely observe the policy effects and reasonably grasp the intensity and rhythm of monetary policy regulation based on the economic recovery, the achievement of goals and the specific problems facing the operation of the macro economy.

another analysis believes that the reason why the lpr remained unchanged in september is that since 2024, the 5-year lpr has been lowered in february and july, and the 1-year lpr has been lowered in july, and the time rhythm is not fast. if it is lowered again in september, the time is too tight. in addition, the current conditions of bank net interest margin are not very good, and the expectation of a supplementary interest rate cut for existing mortgage loans is added. the central bank may avoid "adding insult to injury" for banks.

subsequent expectations

however, the market still has certain expectations for monetary policy, and many industry insiders still expect there will be policy space in the fourth quarter.

on september 19, the national development and reform commission stated that the current economic operation is generally stable, and high-quality development is being steadily promoted. at the same time, the adverse effects of changes in the external environment have increased, the conversion of new and old growth drivers has been painful, and the economic operation still faces many difficulties and challenges. however, the positive factors and favorable conditions in economic operation are also accumulating, and we have the conditions, capabilities and confidence to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.

the national development and reform commission will work with all departments and localities to implement the employment priority policy in depth, increase residents' income through multiple channels, and continuously improve residents' consumption capacity; make good use of ultra-long-term special government bond funds, increase support for the trade-in of old consumer goods, further promote the quality and expansion of service consumption such as culture, tourism, education, medical care, elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, actively create new consumption scenarios, and cultivate new growth points for consumption.

in addition, judging from the financial data in august, the necessity is indeed increasing. in august, new credit was 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 460 billion yuan, and also lower than the historical average of 1.26 trillion yuan in the same period, of which bills are still the main support item. in mid-to-late august, the direct discount rate of 6m state-owned banks once broke down by 1%, which may also reflect the banks' willingness to use bills to offset loans. in august, the total amount of undiscounted bills and bill financing in social financing increased by 150.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and the overall billing scale expanded again. the total amount of credit is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the main support lies in bills.

at the same time, medium- and long-term loans to residents and enterprises continued to be weak. in august, medium- and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.4 billion yuan. since august, local debt issuance has been mainly based on the so-called "special new special bonds", and the corresponding medium- and long-term supporting financing support for enterprises is still weak, and the efficiency of debt in driving investment is low. in august, short-term loans to residents increased by 160.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and consumer demand remained weak; in august, medium- and long-term loans to residents increased by 120 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2 billion yuan.

judging from the trends of m1 and m2, m1 continued to decline in august, while non-bank deposits supported m2 to remain unchanged from the previous year. in august, the unit demand deposits increased by 467.4 billion yuan year-on-year, dragging m1 further down to -7.3%; residents and corporate deposits continued to increase less year-on-year, but non-bank deposits increased by 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting m2 to remain unchanged from the previous year. fiscal deposits increased by 567.5 billion yuan year-on-year, which may indicate that the issuance of government bonds in august accelerated significantly while the progress of fiscal expenditure was relatively misaligned.

china post securities believes that the agreed growth rate red line is still focused on 8%. roughly assuming that the credit growth rate may fall back to 8.0% at the end of the year, the credit scale in the fourth quarter will be about 4.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 700 billion yuan. in terms of social financing, it is expected that government bonds will still provide some support for the growth rate of social financing in september, but as the issuance peak gradually passes, the growth rate of social financing in the fourth quarter is expected to fluctuate downward, and social financing will fall below 8% at the end of the year, or around 7.7%. in the future, more attention will be paid to the policy attitude when the financing growth rate falls close to 8%. the central bank pointed out in its interpretation of the data that "monetary policy will be more flexible, moderate, precise and effective, and increase the intensity of regulation", and also emphasized "starting to launch some incremental policy measures" and "further reducing corporate financing and resident credit costs". the statement of cost reduction is clearer, and it is expected that the probability of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates will increase, and monetary policy may be strengthened.