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securities times reporter wu jiaming

"several waves of clients i've come into contact with recently all looked at properties three or four times before finally deciding to buy one. these days happen to be the mid-autumn festival holiday, but they looked more than they bought." manager li, who has been engaged in new home sales in the buji area of ​​longgang, shenzhen for many years, said, "nowadays, the transaction cycle of new homes has lengthened, and buyers still have many concerns. the market still needs more policies to support the 'golden september'."

the mid-autumn festival holiday that just passed can be said to be the first important node to test the "golden september" of the real estate market. taking the shenzhen market as an example, when the reporter visited many districts in shenzhen, he found that the enthusiasm of real estate developers to launch projects seemed to be less than expected, and some projects did not even launch corresponding marketing activities for the mid-autumn festival holiday. "the current preferential measures are the same as those when the project was launched before, and there is no further promotion plan, and there is no specific time for the next batch of houses to enter the market." a new house marketing manager in the henggang area of ​​longgang told reporters.

li yujia, a researcher at the guangdong housing policy research center, said that during the "golden september" period, developers were not very enthusiastic about launching new projects. the main reason behind this is that developers have a large number of houses for sale. in addition, the overall sales rate of developers' new projects is relatively low, and the sales cycle is relatively long. if developers continue to launch new projects, poor sales will only lead to worse market expectations and prolong the period for developers to collect funds.

in the second-hand housing market, data released by shenzhen centaline research center showed that during this year's mid-autumn festival holiday (september 15 to 17), the average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses in shenzhen centaline dropped 57% from the previous weekend, while the transaction volume of new houses remained basically the same. as of september 17, the average daily volume of second-hand houses in shenzhen in september dropped 20% from the whole month of august. in addition, the average daily transaction volume and viewing volume of shenzhen leyoujia stores during the holiday were basically the same as those in previous weekends from august to september, and there was no significant increase.

from the perspective of the national market, data released by china index academy showed that during this year's mid-autumn festival holiday, the average daily sales area of ​​new homes in 25 representative cities fell by about 29% compared with the holiday in 2023. in the second-hand housing market, cities such as beijing, hangzhou, and foshan are still active in the context of "trading price for volume".

the reporter randomly interviewed several young homebuyers and found that they are now looking at houses while waiting for "policy" and will carefully "compare prices" between new and second-hand houses. after seeing the low discount prices of new houses in the same area, they will have the mentality of "not daring to buy after watching". it is still a rule that is difficult to break away from. if the price cannot stop falling, homebuyers will always expect lower prices. in addition, they are most concerned about the adjustment of mortgage interest rates, purchase restrictions and further adjustments to transaction taxes and fees.

the reporter found that in order to boost confidence in the real estate market, many places have recently introduced policies to support housing purchases, involving housing purchase subsidies, provident fund support and other aspects. for example, zhanjiang issued the "notice on several measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market" on the 15th, which included increasing the housing provident fund loan amount from 500,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan for a single person and from 800,000 yuan to 900,000 yuan for a couple. in addition, the difference between the first and second housing provident fund loan amounts was cancelled. the second housing provident fund loan amount was increased from 400,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan for a single person and from 700,000 yuan to 900,000 yuan for a couple. nanjing issued the "notice on issuing limited-time housing purchase subsidies for the 2024 golden autumn housing exhibition". the notice clearly stated that from september 20 to 22, 2024, buyers who purchased newly built commercial housing at the nanjing golden autumn housing exhibition and completed online signing and filing before december 31, 2024 will receive an additional subsidy of 1% of the purchase contract amount on the basis of the current housing purchase subsidy policies in each district.

in the view of many industry insiders, the current time is an important window for the introduction of real estate market regulation policies. xu yuejin, deputy director of research at china index academy, predicts that the end of september each year is a period of intensive introduction of real estate market policies. it is expected that relaxing restrictive policies in core cities will still be an important direction for optimizing the demand side. there is still room for further adjustment in reducing mortgage interest rates and transaction taxes in various places. at the same time, the intensity of housing purchase subsidies in various places is expected to be further increased. "at present, the traditional peak season of 'golden september' has started sluggishly, and long-term factors such as residents' income expectations have not improved significantly, and wait-and-see sentiment is still heavy. from the trend point of view, the real estate market policy is expected to be optimized at the end of september. with policy support, market transactions in the fourth quarter are expected to pick up."