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securities times reporter yu shipeng

around the mid-autumn festival this year, liquor prices and stock prices were sluggish, and the market's investment expectations for holiday consumption and travel were somewhat relaxed. but in fact, liquor is only a small part of consumption, and it is not comprehensive to speculate on the mood of holiday consumption.

judging from the data of railways, aviation, hotels, etc., this year's mid-autumn festival holiday consumption is still hot. domestic hotel, car rental, ticket and other bookings have achieved double-digit growth compared with the same period in 2019, among which domestic hotel bookings have increased by 50%. in addition, due to the high base number and the fact that outbound travel has suppressed the price of domestic travel, consumption during the mid-autumn festival and even the national day holiday may show a phenomenon of "increase in volume and decrease in price". public funds believe that the pulsed sales growth before and after the holiday can still bring unexpected market investment opportunities.

mid-autumn festival travel

the trend of "volume increase" is obvious

when observing the holiday consumption economy, the first thing to look at is travel data. according to the china national railway group, during the five-day mid-autumn festival (september 14-18), the national railway is expected to carry 74 million passengers, with an average of 14.8 million passengers per day. september 15 is the peak day for passenger flow, with an estimated 16.8 million passengers.

in terms of air travel, data from air travel shows that as of september 11, the number of domestic air ticket bookings for the mid-autumn festival holiday has exceeded 2.8 million, an increase of about 50% from a week ago; in terms of international travel, the number of air ticket bookings for inbound and outbound routes during the mid-autumn festival holiday has exceeded 570,000, an increase of about 15% from a week ago. taking guangzhou baiyun airport as an example, according to the baiyun entry-exit border inspection station, the average daily passenger flow at guangzhou baiyun airport is expected to reach 42,000 from september 15 to 17, with an average daily inbound and outbound passenger flow increasing by about 1% year-on-year, and the peak may reach 44,000, which will be a 5-year high.

the second is food, accommodation and travel. this year's mid-autumn festival and even the national day holiday that followed, the "volume increase" trend is more obvious. according to the data compiled by reporters from multiple travel platforms, as of now, the number of domestic hotel, domestic car rental, domestic ticket and other bookings during the mid-autumn festival has increased by more than double digits compared with the same period in 2019. among them, fliggy data shows that the current domestic hotel bookings during the mid-autumn festival have increased by about 50% compared with the same period in 2019. from the price dimension, the mid-autumn festival in 2024 is right in the middle of the summer vacation and the national day. the prices of air tickets and hotels are comparable to the off-season, and the travel cost-effectiveness of the mid-autumn festival is higher. the "2024 national day tourism forecast report" released by ctrip shows that due to the high base number and the fact that outbound travel has suppressed the prices of domestic travel, judging from the current booking situation, the "eleventh" tourism may show a trend of "volume increase and price drop", and air tickets (tax included) and hotel prices will both drop.

a person from a public consumer investment research company in beijing analyzed to the securities times reporter that before the mid-autumn festival, both the "volume increase" and "price drop" phenomena had already appeared. "volume increase" is the main feature of peak consumption during holidays, but this year's mid-autumn festival is not on the weekend, and many people may have a vacation of 4 or even 5 days, making the "volume increase" effect more prominent. the "price drop" phenomenon is more obvious in the recent stock prices of consumer companies and the prices of alcohol and mooncakes. taking mooncakes as an example, fuguo fund quoted the "2024 china mooncake industry market trends" data from the china baking food and sugar products industry association. the mainstream mooncake price range in 2023 is 80 yuan to 280 yuan, and this year the concentrated price range is 70 yuan to 220 yuan.

trade-in policy

the effect is gradually showing

in fact, investment funds have already reflected the above situation. as of september 14, the performance of consumer liquor stocks on the a-share market was sluggish, while the performance of travel-related stocks was remarkable. china travel service united has increased by more than 15% since late august, and shanghai film has increased by more than 12% since the end of august.

yu huan, fund manager of great wall fund, told the securities times reporter that the mid-autumn festival and national day are approaching, and the peak season for consumer goods sales is coming. the market currently has low expectations for domestic consumption, and will pay close attention to the sales of related consumer goods, which will directly affect the future trend of the large consumer sector. yu huan also mentioned that since august, various regions have issued implementation plans for the old-for-new policy, covering the fields of automobiles, home appliances, and consumer electronics.

according to the analysis of jiang luyan, a researcher at nord fund, from the perspective of total volume, the amount of subsidies for the home appliance industry is expected to be between 10 billion and 30 billion yuan. based on the central subsidy of 20 billion yuan and the two subsidy standards of 15% and 20%, it is expected to boost the terminal sales scale by about 100 billion to 130 billion yuan. in 2023, the retail scale of home appliances involving subsidies in the social retail caliber is about 520 billion to 600 billion yuan. it is estimated that the proportion of terminal retail scale driven by subsidies accounts for about 20% of the annual sales scale. the variable may mainly lie in how much consumption behavior of consumers who originally had no plans to update this year is boosted.

"from our recent surveys in some regions, driven by policies, sales of related categories have indeed increased significantly, and the policy effects are gradually emerging," said yu huan. according to data released by the national bureau of statistics on september 14, the total retail sales of consumer goods in august was 3.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. from january to august this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 31.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 28.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. by consumption type, the retail sales of goods in august was 3.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; catering revenue was 435.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. from january to august, the retail sales of goods was 27.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; catering revenue was 3.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.

terminal consumption is expected to emerge from the downturn

based on the above situation, the aforementioned beijing public fund consumer investment research personnel said that the investment market brought by this year's mid-autumn festival is still worth looking forward to, but this is more structural and phased. although the current performance of sectors such as liquor is not good, consumption is a very large field. the pulsed sales growth before and after the holidays can still bring unexpected market opportunities, which is similar to the financial report market of listed companies.

"the consumer sector has been adjusting since it peaked in the first quarter of 2021. from a static valuation perspective, it is currently at a historically low percentile level." chen jianjun, fund manager of csop consumer theme fund, said that the current weakness of the consumer sector is not due to overvaluation. when the domestic macro economy bottoms out and gradually recovers, terminal consumption will also emerge from the downturn.

huaxia fund said that after the semi-annual report was released, september was a rare performance window period, and the negative pressure of fundamentals was temporarily lifted. at the same time, apple, huawei, hisilicon and other major companies held press conferences intensively, which may form positive expectations for industries including semiconductors and consumer electronics. in addition, dividend and value-oriented defensive companies have achieved significant excess returns this year. from the perspective of corporate operations, incremental capital preferences, and stock price performance, they have an absolute advantage. at present, there is still a gap between policy implementation and economic improvement, and winning rate assets should not be abandoned too early.

in terms of specific tracks, jiang luyan said that in the era of consumption upgrade, some categories that are ignored by investors, such as instant noodles, traditional tea drinks, and domestic toothpaste, with weak growth potential but rigid demand and low pricing, are prone to price increases against the trend. at present, the categories where the consumption atmosphere in the food and beverage industry continues to spread are mainly functional drinks and sugar-free tea drinks. based on the experience of countries such as japan, there is a lot of room for improvement in the long-term penetration rate of these categories.