news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

author | yang zhichao

editor | wilderness

“this year’s goal is to reach 10 million followers.”

when zhou hongyi set this goal in april this year, he had already become the most popular internet celebrity among entrepreneurs, second only to lei jun. through popular events such as the maybach auction, shaking hands with ma huateng, and the beijing auto show, his douyin fans increased from 2.98 million at the beginning of the year to 6 million at the end of april (data source: chan mama, the same below), and only one-third of 2024 had passed.

it seems that the goal of 10 million is within reach.

unfortunately, as of september 15, his fans have not reached 7 million. on april 28, when zhou hongyi auctioned the maybach, his douyin fans increased by 240,000, but in the second half of the year, his fans only increased by 300,000. meanwhile, lei jun's fans are still growing steadily at a rate of several million per month, and are now close to breaking through 30 million.

it seems that zhou hongyi's road to becoming an internet celebrity has reached a bottleneck. "lueda cankao" believes that zhou hongyi, as an internet celebrity, currently has two main problems:

1. as an internet celebrity, zhou hongyi is too dependent on external hot spots, and the market lacks events like the beijing auto show and the internet conference in the second half of the year. after the phenomenal auction of maybach, zhou hongyi did not create a similar "new life".

2. zhou hongyi's attitude in the video is too casual, and the video's appearance has caused widespread criticism on douyin and bilibili.

of course, zhou hongyi is an entrepreneur and does not rely on the number of fans to make a living. for him, the most important result is not how many fans he has gained, but what the internet celebrity effect has brought to his company. however, from the current data, unlike lei jun's personal ip, which has a strong impact on the company, zhou hongyi's popularity seems to be independent of his identity as an entrepreneur.

01 zhou hongyi has no maybach for auction

on september 13, zhou hongyi's douyin account only gained 24 followers.

zhou hongyi is very hardworking. in the past 30 days, he has released more than 80 short videos, and the cumulative number of videos on douyin has exceeded 1,500. but even on september 12, when he released five videos in a row, zhou hongyi only gained 6,200 followers. on the other hand, lei jun gained 60,000 followers in just two days, on the 12th and 13th. lei jun's fans almost always increase by more than 10,000 on any day he releases a video.

from july to now, zhou hongyi's douyin fans have increased by about 300,000, while during the same period, lei jun's fans have increased by about 4 million.

obviously, the two big internet celebrities who once went hand in hand at the beijing auto show have now gradually widened the gap.

by observing zhou hongyi's fan growth curve, we can clearly see that he had two big peaks at the beginning of the year and in april, and a small peak in march, but starting from may, his fan growth has gradually weakened.

figure: zhou hongyi’s fan trends

let’s first look at what each peak in the curve corresponds to.

the first peak marked the beginning of zhou hongyi’s journey to becoming an internet celebrity.at the beginning of this year, zhou hongyi appeared in the live broadcast room of oriental selection. this did not seem to be a sudden decision, because zhou hongyi later said that he had taken yu minhong as his teacher and would diligently post short videos every day. since then, zhou hongyi has basically maintained a daily update rhythm, even more than 2 times a day. he has also changed his previous image of a "red cannon" and has become more tolerant and gentle to both netizens and industry peers.

times make heroes. in march, xiaomi motors began to enter the pre-listing stage, and lei jun brought about the trend of "entrepreneurs becoming internet celebrities". it was also from march that zhou hongyi's content gradually expanded from pure ai to automotive content. he would review ideal mega downstairs in the company, and would also "angrily" criticize the nezha motors he invested in for only making products but not marketing, and asked ceo zhang yong to learn more from lei jun - it can be seen that zhou hongyi's road to internet celebrity started with a very close relationship with lei jun.

the second peak of the fan growth curve was in april, which was also the moment when zhou hongyi’s journey as an internet celebrity truly reached its peak.there were three major events during this period: the maybach auction, shaking hands with ma huateng at the 30th anniversary conference of the internet, and the beijing auto show. the combined effect of these three major events has brought zhou hongyi's road to becoming an internet celebrity into a period of explosive growth.

let's look at maybach first. from the perspective of traffic efficiency, the maybach auction was an extremely successful operation. because after the maybach auction, it will be replaced by a domestic new force, lao zhou, who is responsible for traffic, directly ushered in the competition for sales by car companies, and finally evolved into the "798 auto show" downstairs of 360 company. after that, there was a dinner party where mr. zhou said that he couldn't drink alcohol after taking cefuroxime, and the second-hand car dealer questioned whether it was "real or fake" and "world famous paintings".

compared to "hosting a car show", attending the 30th anniversary conference of the internet is more like zhou hongyi doing his old job. the biggest move zhou hongyi made at this conference was to shake hands with ma huateng. this 11-second short video circulated ma huateng's classic saying: you are the most popular among internet celebrities, right? this video has been played more than 2 million times on bilibili.

on april 25, the beijing auto show opened. this auto show, which was held amid the wave of internet celebrity ips of entrepreneurs, was destined to become a stage for "stars". zhou hongyi and lei jun became the targets of media pursuit. zhou hongyi climbed onto the roof of dongfeng mengshi 917 on the first day of the auto show, which also marked that this old entrepreneur reached another peak in his life.

a review of zhou hongyi's peak reveals a problem: his popularity was related to lei jun, ma huateng, auto shows, and maybach, but had little to do with 360.

figure: lei jun's fan trend on douyin

generally speaking, entrepreneurs and internet celebrities are entrepreneurs first and internet celebrities second. because the popularity brought by products and enterprises is truly lasting. in the heyday of meizu mobile phones, even if he was hiding behind the scenes, huang zhang's every move attracted the attention of the outside world, but now, his name has not appeared in the hot search for a long time. back to zhou hongyi, the popularity that 360 can bring at present may not be as good as that of nezha auto.

because of this, zhou hongyi's popularity is inseparable from external hot spots. in the second half of the year, zhou hongyi's videos with good playback volume are almost all related to external hot spots: such as the turnip run incident, the release of the enjoy s9, the burial of a software tycoon at the bottom of the sea, his visit to jd.com, and his dialogue with zhang xuefeng. however, videos about his own business generally have lower playback volume than the above hot spots.

to put it bluntly,zhou hongyi’s traffic is heavily dependent on “riding on the popularity”.

so does zhou hongyi have the ability to bring his own traffic? this is another question: putting aside the hot topics, is zhou hongyi himself an excellent internet celebrity?

02 the unkempt man in red

zhou hongyi is more than just an internet celebrity who is riding on the popularity of others; he is a true technology expert.

especially in the field of ai. earlier this year, zhou hongyi made 16 predictions about big models, including that open source big models are the future, small models will become mainstream, and autonomous driving will usher in revolutionary changes due to big models. at least so far, his predictions have been extremely accurate.

image source: zhou hongyi's video

zhou hongyi's most important prediction about the big model is that he believes that the open source model will gradually become the mainstream. as an early internet practitioner, zhou hongyi is a great advocate of the open source spirit. he believes that without open source, there would be no internet. this is a "concentrated effort to accomplish great things" under the market economy, and also a kind of universal "scientific and technological equality."

when zhou hongyi made his prediction, the market was caught up in the debate between open source and closed source, and li yanhong said that open source big models have no business model. but now, google and facebook overseas, alibaba and baichuan in china have all embraced open source big models. in august this year, meta released the 400 billion parameter version of llama 3.1, which reached or even exceeded the level of gpt-4o in many fields.

zhou hongyi also predicted that small models would be the mainstream. as a result, in 2024, manufacturers have been promoting the miniaturization of models. for example, open ai launched gpt 4o mini, and baidu also released three lightweight models. these small models greatly reduce the cost of use. although their capabilities are limited in general scenarios, they can be fine-tuned to achieve higher efficiency in specific scenarios.

for example, zhou hongyi predicted that the improvement of big models will bring revolutionary changes to autonomous driving. this is indeed the case. end-to-end autonomous driving represented by fsd v12 is strongly empowered by the development of big models, and autonomous driving has ushered in revolutionary development in 2024.

these predictions are not exclusive to zhou hongyi, nor are they necessarily his first. however, his reasons for expressing them are sufficient and his logic is rigorous, making him look more like an "insider" with real judgment. moreover, due to his relatively neutral stance, he can often give objective and sharp comments on technology. even in the automotive field, which he is relatively unfamiliar with, he can always give wonderful opinions from the user's perspective.

but people’s requirements for influencers are completely different from those for experts. as an influencer, zhou hongyi’s video style has many points that have been clearly criticized by the audience.

a brief introduction: unlike most entrepreneurs, zhou hongyi's video style is extremely relaxed and completely lifelike. you can take a look at the comments from viewers at station b:

despite his unkempt appearance, zhou hongyi prefers to take direct shots with his mobile phone to show all the details to the audience.

picture: zhou hongyi really likes “straight shots of the face”

due to his busy work and travel schedule, zhou hongyi shoots many of his videos in airport rest areas, back seats of cars, and hotel washrooms.

picture: hotels, cars, and airports are the places where mr. zhou usually shoots videos.

in terms of content expression, zhou hongyi's videos are full of a lot of editing, with a steady tone but lacking emotion. therefore, people often suspect that zhou hongyi is reading a script, and some douyin viewers seem to have found evidence of him reading a script.

image: the screenshot shows that there seems to be a screen in front of zhou hongyi

lei jun, who is often compared with zhou hongyi by the audience, has a video style that is more like an artist under professional packaging (lei jun has clearly stated that he is not an artist).

lei jun always has a neat hairstyle when he appears on camera. he usually has a friendly expression, a smile on his face, and is very friendly. he stands straight, as if he is attending a formal interview. the music and photography surrounding the video are also obviously carefully polished. in one sentence: lei jun looks more serious when it comes to self-media.

picture: lei jun's hair is obviously well groomed

of course, zhou hongyi also has times when he shaves his beard and shoots a video before accepting an interview with cctv in june this year.

when responding to questions about the 360 ​​watch, zhou hongyi had a serious expression and sat in a dignified posture.

picture: zhou hongyi's apology video for 360 watches, very entrepreneurial

however, it is not easy to see such a serious mr. zhou in his douyin. most of the time, he still appears in a relaxed and casual manner.

lei jun and zhou hongyi represent two styles of entrepreneurs making short videos. lei jun focuses on the image of a sunny and people-friendly entrepreneur, and his video shooting, music, and packaging all appear more professional. zhou hongyi, on the other hand, is more like the "uncle next door", and many of his videos are hardly packaged. there is no difference between the two styles, not to mention that in the era of self-media, being unkempt is often a plus. but all styles are ultimately determined by results. judging from the current fan growth data of the two, which has widened the gap, the audience obviously prefers lei jun's style.

03 the ultimate question: what has traffic brought to zhou hongyi’s company?

before embarking on the road to becoming an internet celebrity, zhou hongyi said that he was very envious of lei jun and musk, who were able to save companies billions in marketing costs through their influence.

although he has not yet reached the goal of 10 million fans, there is no doubt that zhou hongyi's journey to becoming an internet celebrity is a success. so did zhou hongyi save any advertising fees?

let’s first look at nezha auto, which was invested by zhou hongyi.

on april 22 this year, when zhou hongyi's traffic was initially reaching its peak, nezha held a 2024 spring press conference and released its blockbuster product nezha l. as a major shareholder, zhou hongyi personally attended the press conference, attracting a lot of attention to nezha, which was relatively less popular. in the end, the car exceeded 30,000 orders within 35 days of its launch.

not only that,zhou hongyi's attitude, which seemed to be abusive but was actually flattering, also brought a lot of popularity to nezha's leader zhang yong.in zhou hongyi's words, zhang yong is a technical straight man with very poor marketing ability, and nezha auto can only do things but not brag. of course, his implicit meaning is: nezha's products are very good, and zhang yong is very good at making cars.

figure: zhang yong’s fan trends

under zhou hongyi's "criticism", zhang yong's number of douyin fans also grew rapidly, from zero to 426,000 in just a few months. it can be seen that the peak of zhang yong's fan growth is very close to the peak of zhou hongyi's popularity.

however, it is too early to say that zhou hongyi's popularity has changed the fate of nezha auto. in the past six months, nezha auto's monthly sales have been hovering around 10,000 units, while at the same time, nezha auto's old rival leapmotor's monthly sales in august exceeded 30,000 units.

in fact, it is not difficult to conclude from the sales volume, average customer price and prospectus that nezha auto is the most dangerous mainstream new power brand at present. in short, even with zhou hongyi's traffic blessing, this car company is still in a very difficult time.

but for zhou hongyi’s “old business” 360, it is even more difficult to get traffic from the boss.

on the one hand, zhou hongyi's traffic mainly comes from the automotive industry, which is far from the main business of 360 network security. on the other hand, although 360 is oriented to the c-end, the individual end users of both 360 security guard and 360 browser are basically fixed.

as for b-side business, zhou hongyi will also call for the importance of network security in the era of ai and smart cars in douyin videos, and promote his own security solutions, security cloud and other services. but for corporate users, they consider more factors - consumers may buy an eyebrow pencil because of the promotion of an internet celebrity, but large companies will not choose an expensive digital service just because of live streaming.

360 also has some c-end products, such as 360 children's watches. so did this product benefit from zhou hongyi's traffic dividend? at least judging from the changes in the douyin fans of the 360 ​​official flagship store that sells children's watches, it did not benefit too much. data shows that the trend of douyin fans of the 360 ​​official flagship store does not overlap with that of zhou hongyi himself - after all, the correlation between the auction of maybach and children's watches is a bit weak.

figure: the peak of 360 official flagship store’s followers was in the second half of the year.

missed the peak of zhou hongyi

on a higher level: 360's stock price trend is basically unrelated to zhou hongyi's internet celebrity trend. since the beginning of the year, 360's stock price has fallen by about 22%. in the first half of the year, 360's revenue was 3.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18%, and its non-net loss was 516 million yuan, compared with 255 million yuan in the same period last year.

of course, it is too demanding to ask a listed company's stock price and performance to rise just because its boss is more popular on douyin. even steve jobs may not be able to do it. but at least, there is no obvious overlap between zhou hongyi's traffic effect and 360, like lei jun's for xiaomi and musk's for tesla. the former's popularity is almost exactly the same as the timeline of xiaomi su7's popularity, and the latter's influence is recognized as the biggest confidence of tesla's lack of marketing.compared with lei jun, zhou hongyi's internet celebrity effect may be closer to zhang chaoyang: he has popularity and reputation, but how much help it can bring to his own business remains to be tested over time.