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「core tips」

the reason why everyone is scrambling to be a scalper is that the tri-fold mobile phone is very popular. the stagnant mobile phone market really needs such a "king bomb" to wake it up.

author | chen fashan

editor | liu yang

with a stock of 1 million units and nearly 5.7 million reservations within four days of its release, huawei's three-fold mate xt is destined to be the most difficult phone to grab this year.

you know, according to idc statistics, the total shipment of foldable screen mobile phones in china in 2023 is about 7.007 million units. in other words, huawei's single product is about to catch up with the total sales of the entire industry last year. combined with the price of 20,000 yuan, it can be foreseen thatamong these 5.7 million reservation holders, there are many scalpers who hope to make a profit by resale.

in the past, the new iphone has always been the target of scalpers, but now the situation has changed, and huawei's new mobile phones have become the "hard currency" in the market. on september 10, the day when huawei held a new product launch conference, the topic "apple store employees went to huawei store to watch the new product launch conference" became a hot search on weibo, with more than 99.82 million people watching.

the greater the demand, the crazier the scalpers are. in the past, "no money to buy huawei" (only people without money buy huawei), now it has become "no money to buy huawei" (no money can't afford huawei).

1. online sales are hot, but offline sales are “cold”

in recent days, huawei's tri-fold mobile phone has become the traffic code of social media.

although it has not been officially released yet, many big vs have already got the real machine in advance. from luxury bloggers, media people to well-known entrepreneurs, they couldn't help but record an unboxing video after receiving the goods.

founder of 360zhou hongyiafter getting the real phone, he exclaimed repeatedly: "this phone is outrageously thin, unreasonably thin, and unreasonably thin. in terms of hardware innovation, huawei's phone has surpassed apple. i don't plan to buy iphone 16." one day after the video was released, the number of likes was nearly 200,000, which is about 10 times the number of likes for zhou hongyi's daily videos.

the extremely high popularity of huawei's tri-fold phone mate xt directly drove a surge in pre-orders.as of september 13, data from huawei mall’s official website showed that nearly 5.7 million people had clicked to reserve this phone.

despite the booming online bookings, huawei's offline stores presented a different picture. on september 12, leopard change saw that there were not many customers coming to the stores to experience the phones in core business districts such as wutian old street, mixc, wuyue plaza, and impression city in wenzhou, zhejiang. in addition, only the huawei store in binjiang mixc displayed two tri-fold prototypes, while no prototypes were available in other stores.

"we are an experience store. if you don't get a sample phone, you have to go to a flagship store. there are more of them in big cities like beijing and shanghai," said a clerk at huawei's wutian old street store.

the prototype is protected by a glass cover

different from other models of mobile phones which can be experienced at will, the two display prototypes in binjiang mixc are placed in transparent glass covers. one red model is fully unfolded, and the other black model is half-folded. both are playing screen saver animations in a loop. users can only watch from a distance and cannot experience them.

"the phone has not yet been officially launched, and it should remain like this at least until september 20," said a store staff member.

from the videos shared by users in other cities on social media, it can be seen that many stores choose to maintain mystery in this way.some store clerks even wear black silk gloves from luxury stores when demonstrating prototypes to avoid leaving fingerprints on the screen, adding a full sense of ceremony.

in fact, huawei's sales channels are divided into two modes: online and offline. for the online part, taking huawei mall as an example, when the official release is on september 20, it is expected that 5.7 million pre-order users will rush to buy the limited stock online at the same time. who can grab it depends on luck, hand speed and network speed.

offline channels sell based on the store’s allocation quantity. no deposit is required during the booking process, and customers are usually notified to pick up the goods in the order of their reservations.generally speaking, the official flagship stores in core cities have more supplies.for example, when the mate 60 series was released in 2023, it was out of stock in many cities, causing many "pollen" to flock to the huawei flagship store in shenzhen to pick up the goods on site.

a huawei marketing staff member in a city in east china told leopard change that all huawei stores in the city are owned by dealers, and none of them were opened by huawei itself.if dealers want to stock up, they need to purchase goods from upstream channels based on their monthly store ratings, and have a certain amount of goods to be allocated.hot-selling products like the tri-fold product will most likely have matching requirements, and will be packaged with some products that don’t sell well, and not every dealer is eligible.

working in kunming, yunnansecond-hand mobile phonestan tian, ​​who is in charge of the sales of the company, also joined the marketing feast. he said that the premium of mate 60 was as high as 30,000 yuan in the first seven days of its launch in 2023, and it is expected that the premium this year will not be lower than this level. in addition, the supply on the market is scarce, and general specialty stores have been losing money for so long, so they must be given priority to make money first.

butfaced with the turbulent market, the staff of many stores seem to lack confidence in the stocking volume.they said that although reservations can be made, it is not certain when the goods will arrive and it will definitely take a long time to wait. they suggested that customers can wait for a while if they are not in a hurry.

the main reason is the production capacity. huawei plans to stock about 1 million units, but a huawei employee told leopard change that the production capacity occupied by a tri-fold phone is equivalent to six ordinary phones, so the store's stock is also limited.

2. everyone wants to be a scalper

regarding the popularity of huawei's tri-fold phone, the second-hand trading platform gave a more vivid answer: everyone is vying to be a scalper.

when huawei opened pre-orders for the tri-fold smartphone on september 7, many sellers on xianyu posted messages offering to resell the smartphone at prices ranging from 40,000 to 80,000 yuan. in some wechat groups, there were even advertisements from scalpers, claiming that someone had already pre-ordered the huawei tri-fold smartphone from them for 380,000 yuan or even 650,000 yuan, and reminding others to hurry up if they wanted to buy it.

as the official selling price of huawei's tri-fold mobile phone has been settled, the price on xianyu has gradually "returned to normal."on september 13, most sellers marked the price close to the official price, and some were even 2,000 yuan cheaper. however, these posts selling at the original price are mostly used to attract traffic. if users want to buy, they will be informed by the seller that the final price will depend on the market price on september 20, and the excess will be refunded and the shortage will be supplemented.

"the starting price is at least 50,000 or 60,000 yuan. it is impossible for us to sell it to you at the original price on the official website. that would be like giving away money." said tan tian.

some sellers are quite aggressive and require buyers to accept a premium and pay a deposit of 10,000 yuan before making an appointment. if the buyer regrets the decision after locking the order, the deposit will not be refunded., and said "we are sure that the goods are available, but don't rush, you may need to wait for a while." on the other hand, some sellers who guaranteed that they would have spot goods on september 20th gave a fixed price of 118,800 yuan, and said: "if the market price is higher by then, we will not make up for it. at this price, the price of the first batch is likely to exceed this price."

judging from these so-called "scalper" sellers, in addition to those who originally worked in the mobile phone industry, there are also some people who previously worked in shoe sales, car tires, internet coupons, waste home appliance recycling, and even airplane model sales. after adding a seller's wechat through page information, "leopard change" found that his main business is selling shoes. there is no information about huawei's tri-fold mobile phone in his circle of friends, and he does not respond to inquiries about the phone. it is suspected that he is diverting traffic to sell shoes.

scalpers selling mobile phones on xianyu

according to several "scalpers", their sources of goods mainly come from two channels:one is to place an order directly on the huawei mall using the "yougou code"; the other is to obtain goods from dealers through personal relationships.

on the xianyu platform, the price of a preferential purchase code is about 30,000 yuan. after the official release on september 20, buyers can use this code to place an order directly on the huawei mall. together with the price of the phone itself, which is about 20,000 yuan, it is equivalent to buying a huawei tri-fold phone for about 50,000 yuan.

a scalper displays a discount code

two huawei employees in shenzhen and zhejiang confirmed to leopard change that if you have a preferential purchase code, it is equivalent to a separate purchase quota, and you can directly place an order to buy the tri-fold mobile phone.the preferential purchase code is generally allocated by huawei to senior "huawei pollen". it has to go through several approvals and is very scarce.

if you get the goods from dealers through personal relationships, the supply is mainly concentrated in first-tier cities, and the price fluctuates more. on the morning of september 13, a nanjing dealer said that the transaction price the day before was around 200,000 yuan, which was lower than the initial price, which was as high as more than 300,000 yuan. he suggested waiting for the batch of goods on september 20, when the price of different configurations will fluctuate between 60,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan. "there is a lot of stock on the 20th," the dealer said.

a huawei marketing employee in zhejiang said,at present, some dealers have received the goods. huawei has very strict management of dealers' stores and does not allow public price increases. therefore, scalpers have become middlemen for their private transactions.several scalpers also confirmed this to leopard change, saying that their supply came from dealer "friends." "i only make a small amount of money, while my friends at specialty stores make more," said one scalper.

in order to increase their credibility, reduce transaction links, and quickly recover funds, scalpers will also "thoughtfully" suggest that buyers go to the official flagship store to exchange money and goods.

in contrast,ordinary netizens who want to become scalpers can only rely on luck.since no deposit is required to place an order or reservation on the huawei mall, some people also join in the fun and "place an order" with one click. even if they fail to purchase the product in the end, they will not suffer any loss.

in addition, there are many chaos in the scalper market of huawei's tri-fold. for example, after some people successfully made an appointment at the store (a successful appointment does not mean that the product is in stock, and the arrival time is uncertain), they marked the price online at 20,000 yuan with just a screenshot of a successful appointment text message, trying to get something for nothing.

some apple dealers also posted on xianyu that they were selling huawei's tri-fold phones for 10 million yuan, sparking controversy over whether they were deliberately discrediting huawei. in the end, the seller had to clarify that he "did not intend to sell it."

3. who needs a foldable screen?

in the past few years, domestic mobile phones have been striving to move towards high-end products, but in the years when huawei was sanctioned, the biggest beneficiary is apple. most of the high-end market given up by huawei has been taken over by apple.

huawei's three-folding phone is expected to reshape the high-end market. yu ming, former president of changba, said that domestic mobile phones that cost several thousand yuan are not selling well, but folding screens that cost 20,000 yuan are selling like hot cakes. in the eyes of the boss, spending 10,000 or 20,000 yuan is no different from ordinary people spending 1,000 or 2,000 yuan.folding screens can demonstrate value and have strong social value, making the boss feel very face-saving.

yu ming described a scene: at a gathering of bosses, the boss who uses a tri-fold phone can be versailles, "i couldn't find anyone from huawei, so i paid an extra 20,000 yuan to buy it. the main thing is that this thing works pretty well."

judging from market feedback, the largest audience for foldable screens is generally recognized to be entrepreneurs, executives, and other groups. the large screen can meet the needs of such users for approval and reviewing documents when out and about, which is much more convenient than carrying an extra computer or using a candy-bar phone to enlarge the document.

however,for middle-level corporate managers or ordinary consumers, do they have the same strong demand for foldable screen mobile phones?

lin ming is a middle manager of a large state-owned bank in a second-tier city. he loves to try new digital products. in his opinion, work should be done through the intranet and computers, and mobile phones are rarely used for work. the key is that foldable screen phones cannot withstand drops, and it is too expensive to replace the screen, so they dare not "run naked".

"i bought a foldable screen phone before, but i sold it after playing with it for a month. i don't open it very often. i drop my phone easily and can't afford to damage it," said lin ming.

xu ran, a post-90s who works at a leading internet company, holds a similar view. in her opinion, the essence of playing with a mobile phone is to play it while lying down. if it is too big, it will hurt if it falls down. if you use it while sitting, you would rather choose a tablet, after all, there is no crease, and it is more comfortable to look at.

xu ran has worked in several well-known internet companies and used office software such as dingtalk and feishu. these applications have been optimized for candy-bar phones. whether browsing online documents or handling oa processes, a 6-inch screen is enough. when going out, there is less demand for a large screen, and it is nothing more than phone calls and wechat.

andperhaps the one who most hopes to see the success of the triple-fold device is huawei itself.

in august 2023, huawei released the mate60 series through the "pioneer plan", successfully established a foothold in the high-end market, and unexpectedly led to the hot sales of products such as the m7. although folding screens are still a niche product in the overall mobile phone market, with a market share of only about 1.5% of the entire industry in 2023, the tri-fold mobile phone is more like a high-end product for huawei to demonstrate its technological strength, aiming to enhance its brand image and attract traffic for other products.

at the press conference on september 10, after releasing the three-fold mobile phone, yu chengdong took the opportunity to introduce the qiwenjie m9 and zhijia ads3.0, which seemed to hint at the subtext behind the press conference. in fact, some stores have already done so.a user left a message on xiaohongshu saying that he went into a store to buy a tri-fold mobile phone, but the clerk started selling it in bundles. if he wanted to pick up the product earlier, he needed to place an order for an m9.

the scalper feast opened by the triple-fold phone has not yet ended. with the subsequent release of the mate 70 series, the mystery of the pure-blooded hongmeng and kirin chips will also be revealed. perhaps by then, the scene of "everyone scrambling to be a scalper" will appear again.

(at the request of the interviewees, tan tian, ​​lin ming, and xu ran are pseudonyms)