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as we all know, in the 1920s, germany's extreme right, racism and nazi ideology originated in thuringia. history will not simply repeat itself, but a century later, the extreme right-wing party has once again become a "decisive" political force in eastern germany, which still allows the world to glimpse the long shadow of history.

the shock has brought about changes. on september 9, german interior and land minister feser ordered the resumption of passport checks at all german land borders to reduce the number of people entering germany without a visa.

history was rewritten in thuringia. the alternative for germany (afd) party ranked first in the parliamentary elections with 32.8% of the votes, the old party cdu (christian democratic union) ranked second with 23.6%, and the left-wing new party "wagenknecht alliance" ranked third with 15.8%.

in saxony, the cdu ranked first with 31.9% of the votes, the alternative for germany ranked second with 30.6%, and the wagenknecht alliance won 11.8% of the seats in its first election and successfully entered the state parliament.

the rapid advance of the afd was surprising, and the dismal performance of the three parties in the german ruling coalition was equally surprising. in thuringia, the social democratic party, to which german chancellor scholz belongs, barely retained its seat with 6.1% of the votes, while the green party and the fdp both failed to exceed the 5% vote threshold and lost their qualifications to enter parliament; in saxony, the social democratic party (7.3%) and the green party (5.1%) barely entered the state parliament, and the fdp lost again.

in a word, has the world changed? at least in eastern germany.

the biggest highlight of the elections in these two states was undoubtedly the rapid rise of the afd. as the afd received nearly one-third of the votes, it could constitute an "obstructive minority" in parliament according to relevant laws, which means that the afd has the ability to veto major issues such as amending laws in parliament. the afd also truly transformed itself through this election, from an opposition party to a party with real power. especially in thuringia, the state's afd leader bjorn houck called the result a "historic victory."

björn hoch has to be introduced here. as a veteran of the choice party, hoch has made many remarks on german history, immigration policy and nationalism since 2019, and has been described as a "fascist" by the meiningen administrative court in germany. from may to july this year, within just a few weeks, hoch was convicted twice by the halle regional court for using banned nazi slogans. the croatian media "morning news" even called hoch "the most dangerous man in europe."

this is not groundless worry. german historian jens-christian wagner said that although the current era is different from when the nazis came to power in 1933, there are still striking similarities in history. in 1929, also in the thuringia state election, the nazi party entered the state parliament for the first time, and only four years later, hitler was elected as the german chancellor. less than 80 years have passed since the history shrouded in the haze of fascism, and the heavy collective memory of the european people has been awakened again.

the neue zürcher zeitung commented that "the victory of the afd proves that many voters will not be moved by reports from domestic intelligence agencies, warnings from political opponents or editorials that are concerned about the country and the people. the afd has become a political force with decisive influence in eastern germany." public opinion analysis believes that the reason why the afd was able to go against the trend and gain a foothold despite being squeezed out by all mainstream political parties is due to a combination of reasons:

first, people are concerned about immigration policies and security issues. since the beginning of this year, knife attacks have occurred frequently in germany, which has become a "god assist" for the afd. in particular, the knife attack in solingen on august 23 killed three people and injured eight. the suspect was a 26-year-old syrian man who was suspected to be a member of the islamic state.

in saxony and thuringia, voters generally believe that traditional parties have failed to deal effectively with these issues, leading to more support for the afd's radical xenophobic stance. the afd seized on voters' concerns about increased immigration and related social issues, making these issues the core of its campaign and succeeding.

the second is economic uncertainty and voters' dissatisfaction with economic policies. eastern germany is a region that traditionally relies more on industry and agriculture, and its economic development level has long lagged behind that of the west. against the backdrop of the energy crisis and inflation, many voters in the eastern region have further intensified their concerns about the economic outlook. the economic policies promoted by the afd during the campaign, such as reducing the tax burden on small and medium-sized enterprises and ordinary wage earners, reducing germany's contribution to the eu budget and restoring more economic autonomy, opposing globalization and protecting domestic markets and industries, fully catered to the economic demands of voters in the eastern region and thus won voter support.

third, voters do not trust the federal government and political elites. voters in east germany have long distrusted the political elites in west germany. although reunification has lasted for more than 30 years, voters in the east still feel that their voices are not adequately valued at the federal level and are marginalized. many voters believe that this federal government is inefficient in implementing policies, especially in failing to deliver on its promises in dealing with immigration and economic issues, which has exacerbated the federal disappointment. the alternative for germany took full advantage of this and successfully attracted voters who were disappointed with the federal government and political elites by criticizing the existing political system.

fourth, the afd’s strategy has won the support of young people. in thuringia, 35% of voters under the age of 30 voted for the afd, 10% higher than in the 2019 election, far ahead of all political parties. the afd has performed particularly well on platforms such as tiktok. not only does it have dedicated personnel responsible for social media operations, it also focuses on creating an approachable image, billing itself as a "party that can solve problems," and declaring to young people "i will take care of you, and everything will be fine," which greatly responds to the insecurity of young people in germany today, an advantage that other traditional political parties do not have.

the result of the election is "painful". german chancellor scholz said: "the afd is damaging germany, it is weakening the economy, dividing society and damaging the reputation of our country." scholz also called on the two states to form a "stable government without right-wing extremists."

the elections in saxony and thuringia have caused german politicians and media to worry about the rise of right-wing forces and the future political situation. the business community is worried that investors will abandon their investments due to the unfriendly environment that may emerge after the election. monika schnitzer, chairwoman of the german economic expert committee, said that state agencies and educational institutions are already facing a shortage of staff, especially considering the afd's opposition to skilled immigration. this situation may worsen, putting companies in thuringia and saxony at a disadvantage in the global competition for qualified skilled workers.

marcel fratzscher, director of the german institute for economic research, expressed the same concern, believing that the afd's policies of advocating trade protectionism, reducing immigration, and reducing openness and diversity may lead to the outflow of companies and skilled workers, and more companies may go bankrupt and relocate as a result.

at the industry level, the anxiety caused by the afd victory is also growing. ralf wintergest, chairman of the german association for information technology, telecommunications and new media, said that germany must continue to be an "open and innovative country" and that the afd does not represent these values. "without foreign talent, the planned semiconductor factory in saxony will not be able to operate."

however, in these two elections, scholz and the ruling coalition faced greater challenges. the social democratic party led by scholz performed poorly in the elections, and the other two parties in the ruling coalition (the green party and the free democratic party) performed even worse. the election results intensified public doubts about scholz's leadership ability.

one of the most direct results is the intensification of internal strife within the ruling coalition. on the one hand, the three parties blamed each other on issues with large differences, such as pension reform; on the other hand, some people within the fdp, which suffered a disastrous defeat in the election, even called for withdrawal from the ruling coalition, or its leader lindner should step down. some analysts pointed out that although the current situation is still unclear, if the failure of these two elections leads to the dissolution of the german ruling coalition, germany will have to hold a general election in advance.

german tv two commented that "(the ruling coalition) must prove that they can solve problems and have the ability to take action. if they cannot do this, they should step down, even early."

this is just the beginning of a difficult journey for both the winning alternative for germany and germany's mainstream parties.

although the afd won the election in thuringia and became the largest party in parliament, it did not receive more than half of the votes. according to the law, it cannot govern alone and must form a governing coalition with other parties. as all major german parties have clearly stated that they refuse to form a government with it, the subsequent coalition negotiations will face huge challenges, and whether it can successfully govern is still unknown.

if the afd fails to form a government, theoretically the state's second largest party, the cdu, could form a three-party coalition government with the wagenknecht alliance and the spd, or with the wagenknecht alliance and the left party. by then, the afd would win the election but still be unable to govern, and would face a situation of "drawing water with a bamboo basket", which is another story.

the results of these two elections will also have an impact on the upcoming brandenburg state parliamentary election at the end of september and the german general election in september next year. according to the current brandenburg state parliamentary election poll results, the afd ranks first with 24%, while the spd, cdu and the wagenknecht alliance are all around 20%. located in eastern germany, brandenburg has similar economic and social problems as saxony and thuringia. the strong performance of the afd may have a "free-rider" effect on the brandenburg state election, helping it to continue to achieve similar success.

if the afd wins in brandenburg, it will inspire right-wing populist forces in other regions, and even see similar trends in the western region. dissatisfaction with the current government and demand for conservative policies may push the afd to expand its influence nationwide and lay the foundation for its preparations for the 2025 federal election.

on the other hand, the afd continues to impact traditional mainstream parties such as the cdu and spd, forcing them to take a tougher stance on issues such as immigration, energy policy, the ukrainian crisis and eu affairs, and to propose more conservative policies to prevent voter loss. by then, the political division in germany will be further exacerbated, and it will become very difficult to form a government after the federal election. the possibility of a more serious political crisis cannot be ruled out.