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on september 10, the 11th session of the standing committee of the 14th national people's congress reviewed the proposal of the state council to submit for deliberation the draft decision on the implementation of a gradual delay in the statutory retirement age, which attracted attention from all parties.

experts said that one of the main reasons for delaying the statutory retirement age is to adapt to the current population development situation and effectively respond to the challenges of aging. how to understand the relationship between changes in population structure and the adjustment of retirement age? xinhua viewpoint reporters interviewed relevant experts.

trend 1: life expectancy is rising. my country’s average life expectancy has reached 78.6 years

my country has entered an era of longevity, with people spending longer in old age. the latest data shows that my country's average life expectancy has reached 78.6 years.

he dan, director of the china population and development research center, said that according to predictions, it is highly likely that my country's average life expectancy will exceed 80 years by 2030.

"the rapid increase in longevity and the substantial extension of average life expectancy mean that the remaining life expectancy at retirement age has increased significantly and will continue to increase in the future. correspondingly, the current statutory retirement age of 60 for male employees and 55 or 50 for female employees in my country has not been adjusted accordingly for more than 70 years," said yuan xin, vice president of the china population association and professor at the school of economics of nankai university.

"the current statutory retirement age was set in the 1950s, when the average life expectancy was less than 50 years old," yuan xin said. "delaying retirement is a comprehensive social reform that meets the needs of economic and social development. adapting to the increase in life expectancy is one of the important considerations."

trend 2: quality improvement, with the average years of education for new labor force exceeding 14 years

as my country has built the world's largest education system, the quality of the population has improved significantly. the average years of education for the working-age population has continued to increase, from just over 8 years in 1982 to 11.05 years in 2023. in particular, the average years of education for new labor force members has exceeded 14 years.

"now the gross enrollment rate of higher education exceeds 60%, the number of college students has increased significantly, and the population receiving higher education has exceeded 250 million. compared with joining the workforce at around 20 years old in the past, young people now graduate with a master's degree at around 25 years old and graduate with a doctorate at nearly 30 years old." zheng bingwen, director of the world social security research center of the chinese academy of social sciences, cited a set of data to point out that the time for workers to enter the labor market has been delayed, while the retirement age remains unchanged, which is not conducive to the full utilization of human resources.

"if the retirement age is appropriately delayed on a voluntary and flexible basis, and at the same time a sound employment promotion mechanism is established to focus on resolving structural employment contradictions, so that a higher level of human resources can be effectively allocated and play a greater role, it will be conducive to the release of new talent dividends, and willing workers will also be able to increase their income," said zheng bingwen.

"the opportunity for future development is to exchange quality for scale and quality for structure." yuan xin said that my country is currently in a critical stage of transforming from a populous country to a country with strong human resources. it is necessary to further deepen reforms and adopt comprehensive measures to tap the potential and advantages of human resources.

trend 3: the aging population will increase, and the proportion of the elderly population will exceed 30%

population aging is a major issue that must be faced in promoting china's modernization.

data from the ministry of civil affairs shows that as of the end of 2023, my country's population aged 60 and above will reach 297 million, accounting for 21.1%; the population aged 65 and above will reach 217 million, accounting for 15.4%. china has entered a moderately aging society.

according to forecasts, by around 2035, the number of people aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30% of the total population, entering a severe aging stage. by the middle of this century, the size and proportion of my country's elderly population will reach a peak.

"with the continued aging of the population, the contradiction between supply and demand of elderly care services has become more prominent." zhao zhong, dean of the school of labor and human resources at renmin university of china, said that aging is a challenge currently faced by all countries in the world. although delaying the retirement age cannot completely solve the aging problem, it can increase the labor participation rate and allow older people who are willing, capable and qualified to choose to continue to work.

"those born in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, who are about to grow old, are the direct beneficiaries of the resumption of the college entrance examination. the later they are, the higher their education level will be. in the future, there will be more older workers and their quality will be better. with the improvement of policies such as stable employment and labor security, they can also play a greater role in economic and social development." yuan xin said.

trend 4: the total labor force is decreasing, and the working-age population is about 860 million

in population economics, the population aged 16 to 59 is defined as the working-age population, and they are the main force of social production.

according to the national bureau of statistics, by the end of 2023, my country's working-age population will be about 860 million, accounting for 61.3% of the total population. in terms of total volume, the total size of the working-age population is still large, and the demographic dividend still exists, providing important support for economic and social development.

"the labor factor is the key factor that determines the long-term trend of the economy." zheng bingwen said that my country's human resources are still abundant, but focusing on potential and stamina, it is necessary to make better use of human resource advantages through certain policy adjustments.

data show that the number of working-age population has been decreasing year by year since 2012. "from a structural perspective, the proportion of young people and older people in the working-age population has been decreasing, while the proportion of older people has been increasing. this means that in the labor market, the population with the strongest ability to match jobs is decreasing relatively," zhao zhong said.

in his view, with the trend of population aging, the reduction of the working-age population is an objective law of development. gradually delaying retirement can promote willing older workers to become an important force in enriching the future labor force and smooth the curve of the decline of the working-age population.