on september 9, the national bureau of statistics released inflation data: affected by the rising prices of vegetables and pork, the cpi in august rose by 0.6% year-on-year; affected by factors such as insufficient market demand and the downward trend in prices of some international bulk commodities, the ppi price index fell by 1.8% year-on-year.

previously, central bank officials said: monetary policy has been implemented at the forefront this year and has guided banks to lower deposit interest rates. currently, the average statutory reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7%, and there is still room for lowering the reserve ratio.

how should we manage our finances in a society with low interest rates? this is the answer that this article attempts to explore, and it is also a major issue that concerns every chinese family.

"taking advantage of the local financial market and seeking to maximize returns on the basis of value preservation is the investment philosophy of mrs. watanabe."

text/ ba jiuling (

"the price of vegetables has been rising recently. if it keeps rising, even cabbage won't be affordable."

"mr. li, the butcher, said pork prices have also increased a lot, but beef is still relatively cheap."

"two restaurants just closed down today in front of the community, but they were on sale last month and i just topped up some money."

"in recent years, the interest rates of bank financial products have dropped a lot."

aunt li, who is in charge of the family finances, was playing mahjong while chatting with her younger sisters. they complained about the rising vegetable prices and the expensive pork, but in the end they returned to a commonplace topic: making money.

aunt li has always been conservative in financial management. she had been doing long-term and short-term deposits in large banks. but when she wanted to invest in a five-year deposit, she found that the interest rate was more than half of that five years ago. she turned on her phone and heard many videos saying that the deposit interest rate would be lower and lower in the future.

how to manage the family's wealth? how to get more money? aunt li was worried.

fortunately, she has a sister who is well-informed. when playing mahjong, the sister told her that our neighboring country japan has long faced such problems, and if you want to make money in special times, you really need to learn from japan.

moreover, there is a group of housewives in japan who are very good at making money and are well-known all over the world. the americans even gave them a name, calling them "mrs. watanabe". let aunt li study this carefully.

so, what "secrets" of financial management can japan's mrs. watanabe teach aunt li?

carry trade, the financial management secret of mrs. watanabe

mrs. watanabe's rise began with a rare financial disaster.

in 1989, japan's real estate and stock markets reached their peak. as the real economy could not support the price of assets, the bubble of the japanese economy burst after expansion, the domestic stock market never recovered, real estate prices plummeted, enterprises lost vitality, social innovation capabilities weakened, and the unemployment rate remained high.

the bursting of the economic bubble has plunged japan into a long period of deflation. japan's wages and prices have been "frozen" for a long time. in 1991, the average annual salary in japan was 37,800 us dollars, but 30 years later in 2021, its annual salary was only 39,700 us dollars, with almost no growth.

this is japan’s famous social phenomenon: the “lost thirty years”.

japanese housewives, who are used to a good life, are unwilling to allow themselves to fall into a lower social class. whether it is flower arrangement classes or tea art classes, as long as they have free time, they get together to find ways to "make money".

as highly educated women in the late showa era, they noticed that the japanese government continued to introduce economic stimulus policies, which led to a continuous decline in interest rates in japan, even making it a "low-interest country." even so, japan's economy still did not improve.

on the other hand, deposit interest rates in other countries were very high, and different currencies had a certain "interest rate gap", so the watanabe ladies discussed an idea while drinking afternoon tea, which was later called the "carry trade".

mrs. watanabe and her colleagues thought that since the interest rate of the bank of japan was so low, they might as well borrow yen from japanese banks and then convert the yen into high-interest currencies such as the us dollar and australian dollar through the foreign exchange market.

as long as the calculation is done properly, the income from the us dollar can not only cover the borrowing cost of the japanese yen, but also earn an interest rate difference. in this way, the income is much higher than simply depositing money in the bank.

the afternoon tea of ​​mrs. watanabe opened the door to carry trade, which then spread to all parts of the world. as they expected, japan's monetary policy was long-term loose in the following decades, and there were not many currencies in the world with lower interest rates than the yen.

mrs. watanabe's carry trade can be said to be invincible. although she experienced the russian debt crisis in 1998 and the global subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, which caused mrs. watanabe and her family to suffer heavy losses at one point, they explored a safer "day trading" model when they met for coffee.

as mrs. watanabe and others continued to learn, their investment targets expanded from the simple foreign exchange field to many other fields such as gold, commodities, real estate, and emerging markets.

why do many japanese families have more wealth overseas than at home?in the era of deflation, mrs. watanabe's investment philosophy and vision are the real reasons behind it.

an alternative way to deposit us dollars

after learning about mrs. watanabe's story of being a big shot in the financial market, aunt li was eager to try. she and her sisters went to the bank and wanted to conduct a "carry trade", but they were told by the bank's manager chen that the so-called "carry trade" would not work at all.

in china, although individuals can legally hold foreign currency deposits, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, the country has implemented foreign exchange controls, and the amount of foreign currency that each person can freely convert each year is only us$50,000.

the bank of japan places more emphasis on the benefits and convenience of the free flow of money and has established the tokyo foreign exchange market so that mrs. watanabe and others can easily engage in carry transactions, but this does not work in our country.

so, is there another way to allow aunt li to enjoy the high interest rates of foreign currencies in china? in fact, there is a way, that is, us dollar deposits.

manager chen whispered to aunt li, "aunt, if you want to get the high interest rate of the us dollar, you can only convert the rmb into a us dollar deposit product. the interest rate is very high. the interest rate of the us dollar deposit business i did a few months ago was as high as 5.5%."

"as far as i know, the central bank released data a few days ago saying that as of the end of july, the balance of foreign currency deposits in china was 834.7 billion us dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. many people have already bought us dollar deposits. how about you buy some today?"

at this time, the little sister who accompanied me interrupted and said, "i want to buy some today. what is the interest rate you can give me?"

manager chen secretly wiped his sweat. as the federal reserve determined the time for the interest rate cut, the interest rate for buying us dollar deposits has now fallen to 4.6%, which is less than the 5.5% a few months ago. in addition, the rmb exchange rate has also appreciated from a high of 7.35 to 7.10, which will bring about exchange losses, not to mention the trend of depreciation of the us dollar during the interest rate cut cycle.

when manager chen mentioned the 4.6% rate of return, aunt li and her sisters were surprised. following manager chen's explanation, they realized that it was not suitable to continue investing in us dollar deposits now. if the federal reserve continued to cut interest rates, their principal would be at risk of depreciation.

thinking of the possible exchange losses in the future, aunt li and her sisters gave up the idea of ​​buying us dollar deposits.

manager zhou, a securities manager who was stationed at the bank, heard aunt li discussing financial management and discovered a "potential customer". he came over and gave aunt li some advice. he said there was something called qdii fund that could invest in "foreign stocks" and make money quickly.

to invest legally around the world, you still need to be a qdii

manager zhou said that in recent years, foreign stock markets have been much better than domestic ones, so theoretically, investing in european and american stock markets will yield much higher returns. the only legal way for domestic investors to invest in foreign stock markets is through qdii funds.

aunt li’s younger sister is impatient. she asked, “does this fund really make money?”

manager zhou was clearly confident. he said that judging from the first half of this year alone, the median yield of qdii stock funds was as high as 11.27%. all of his clients who bought qdii funds made money, while those who bought stocks lost money.

he also said that as long as you open a securities account, you can use your mobile phone to purchase qdii funds, which is very convenient. even if you want to buy us nasdaq, german frankfurt, and us dollar bond funds, it is also very convenient.

manager zhou also said that an investment tycoon bought a large number ofnasdaq 100 etf, it is said that he earned 99% in 4 years.

manager zhou's words made aunt li and her little sister very excited, but is qdii fund really suitable for aunt li who wants a stable investment? not necessarily.

compared with mrs. watanabe's carry trade, the essence of qdii funds is a high-return, high-risk stock fund.according to aunt li’s usual conservative style, she was afraid that the investment risk assessment would not pass when opening an account.

it’s just that the market has been good in the past year, and the risks have been masked by the stock market’s gains, so if aunt li really wants to learn from mrs. watanabe, she has to adopt a more stable investment strategy.

which investment strategies are more suitable for aunt li?

the glory days of aunt li

as expected, aunt li tried to open an account, but the risk assessment showed a low-risk c1. in other words, aunt li was turned away and manager zhou suffered a setback.

seeing that aunt li was so conservative, bank manager chen took the opportunity to promote his bank's "investment bars".

manager chen said that buying investment gold bars is simply buying gold. japanese mrs. watanabe also likes to buy gold while doing carry trade. aunt li remained silent, but she remembered her "glorious record" more than 10 years ago.

in april 2013, the international gold price plummeted. many chinese middle-aged women felt that gold had fallen to a very low price, so they went to gold shops to "go shopping" and snapped up a lot of gold bars and gold jewelry.

due to the strong purchasing power of the aunties, the international gold price at that time directly caused the largest intraday increase of the year. no matter how much gold was sold by wall street, it was all swept away by the chinese aunties.

the stimulated wall street elites created the english word "dama" and included it in the dictionary to describe their crazy purchasing power, just like they invented "mrs. watanabe".

aunt li was ignorant at the time and followed the trend to buy a lot of gold bars. the gold price was less than 300 yuan per gram. i heard that the current gold price has risen to more than 700 yuan, which has doubled. aunt li, who had tasted the sweetness, was also moved by manager chen's suggestion.

manager chen continued to say that gold is completely different from stocks. it is a natural currency, and the annual mining volume is fixed. when the federal reserve encounters a crisis, it can easily print trillions of dollars, and the us dollar will become waste paper. however, if you want to increase the mining volume of gold, that is really harder than climbing to the sky.

the supply of gold is stable, and the demand is also stable. there will be a situation where no one wants it, because in addition to its rarity, easy cutting, and stable production, there is another very important reason, that is, it is "beautiful".

according to statistics, 45% of the world's gold is used to make jewelry every year. china and india are the two countries that buy the most gold jewelry. aunt li saw from a short video that when a wealthy indian family married off their daughter, her whole body was covered with gold jewelry.

even when aunt li herself attended weddings, she saw many rich brides wearing gold and silver, with more than a dozen gold bracelets on one hand and dozens of gold bracelets around their necks, and the brides were so tired that they were gasping for breath. in addition to cash, the dowry was gold bars, gold bracelets, and gold chains. the bride said that this was the hard currency that china had kept at the bottom of its chest since ancient times.

thinking of this, aunt li decided to buy some gold, but she had to go home and discuss with her husband to decide how much to buy.

bonds or high dividends, which one should you choose?

when her husband came home from get off work, aunt li expressed her desire to buy gold. her husband was quite supportive, but he said that the price of gold was too high now, and even the central bank thought it was too expensive. she suggested that she should wait before buying, and aunt li had no objection.

he also said that a-share bank stocks have risen well in recent times, and the market value of the four major banks has exceeded that of the chinext. his colleague lao wang used to buy bank stocks for dividends and has made a lot of money recently. he has shouted several times that he will treat him to a meal at the end of the month. he couldn't stand his boastful look.

the older colleague, lao zhang, prefers to buy bonds, saying that they are more stable than lao wang's, and asks aunt li to find out more before making a move.

aunt li also took her husband's words to heart. she went to the bank and the brokerage firm the next morning. in the afternoon, she made an appointment with her sisters for afternoon tea and finally figured out the matter.

lao zhang is right. bonds are actually the most stable of all investment products, especially the interest rate of treasury bonds, which is generally regarded as a "risk-free" interest rate. in fact, many financial products are equipped with treasury bonds. if you want to pursue a higher interest rate and have some knowledge of bonds, you can also learn about local government bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, etc.

it is now very convenient to buy bonds. starting from may 1, individuals can purchase most bonds, including government bonds, at bank counters. the returns are stable and the security is high. if you are in urgent need of money, you can also go to the counter to sell them during trading hours. the liquidity is much better than the previous redemption upon maturity.

if you want to be lazy, you can also open an account at a securities company and use the app to place an order to buy government bonds. if you really want to be lazy and make money, you can also choose to buy a series of bond funds.

the returns of the bank stocks that lao wang boasted about are indeed very attractive.

the a-share banking sector fell 1.22% last year and rose 13% this year. if you buy the "world's largest bank",icbc, the stock price has risen 28% this year, lao wang really wasn’t bragging.

let’s look at the dividend yield. according to the results announced in the first half of the year, the four state-owned banks andpostal savings bankboth have announced interim dividends. if the final dividend is included, the full-year dividend yield will definitely exceed 6%. this yield is indeed much better than putting it in the bank.

after much calculation, aunt li decided that buying bank stocks and collecting dividends would be the most worry-free option as it would allow for appreciation in value while also allowing her to earn dividends.

however, the younger sister still reminded her that it is indeed good to earn dividends from bank stocks, but banks have risen sharply this year, will they definitely rise next year? who can guarantee this?

moreover, the news said that banks are now cutting interest rates, and the interest rate spread is shrinking. icbc's interest rate spread has fallen to 1.43%. how long can the good days of banks last? these are all issues that need to be considered.

aunt li, who was worried, went home and told her husband about these things. at her husband's suggestion, aunt li decided to open an account at a securities company and spend 30% of the money to buy bank stocks for dividends, and then go to the bank to buy 40% of gold and government bonds, and not touch the us dollar deposits.

of the remaining 30% of deposits, 10% is kept as cash reserve and 20% is used to buy insurance, so that one's investment proportion is in line with the so-called "standard & poor's household assets" quadrant chart mentioned by insiders.

crossing the river by feeling mrs. watanabe

the reality of long-term deflation in japan has allowed mrs. watanabe and others to learn an investment system to combat deflation.

they are keen on cross-currency arbitrage and are good at exchanging low-interest japanese yen for other high-interest currencies, making huge fortunes from currencies of different countries. this is the practical application of arbitrage trading and a manifestation of information asymmetry.

they also invest in the domestic stock market, especially preferring the five major trading companies with high dividend rates and competitive companies such as toyota and honda. the investment philosophy of joining forces with the strong has given mrs. watanabe a stronger risk tolerance.

taking advantage of the local financial market and seeking to maximize returns while maintaining value is the investment philosophy of mrs. watanabe and others.

in contrast, the aunt lis in china have just started to get involved in investment. although they are cautious, their investment philosophy is more hearsay and they follow the trend. compared with mrs. watanabe, they seem much more blind.

historically, we have followed japan's lead in terms of industrial expansion overseas and trade frictions.

as the interest rate channel continues to decline, some successful financial management cases in japan have become our best reference samples. therefore, referring to mrs. watanabe's financial management ideas, finding suitable domestic investment products to achieve the preservation and appreciation of family assets is the most suitable financial management "secret" for aunt li.

author of this article | wang zhenchao | responsibilityeditor | xu tao

editor-in-chief | he mengfei | image source |VCG