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goldman sachs, the "flag bearer of commodities", had been bullish on commodities several times earlier this year, but the bank has frequently changed its tune in recent times.the "5d bull market for commodities" discussed at the end of may this year is no longer there, and now the only thing goldman sachs is bullish on is gold.

recently, goldman sachs reiterated in a research report that it is still bullish on gold.maintain the target of gold prices rising to $2,700 per ounce by 2025.

as for other commodities, goldman sachs said that due to the weakening of cyclical support, its attitude towards the commodity market has recently turned more cautious, and it has taken a cautious and conservative stance on crude oil, copper and other industrial metals.

copper, aluminum and oil are "abandoned"

goldman sachs pointed out in a research report that considering the current high idle production capacity, potential trade tensions and the possibility that opec supply may exceed expectations next year, it recently lowered its brent crude oil price forecast range by us$5 per barrel to us$70-85.

at the same time,goldman sachs abandons copper bullish betand postponed the time when copper prices hit $12,000 per ton from the end of 2024 to after 2025. goldman sachs believes that copper inventories are still increasing, while demand is relatively weak, and inventory consumption and the resulting price increase will be much later than previously expected.

according to media reports, the bank's analysts samantha dart and daan struyven said in an email this week that they expect copper prices to average $10,100 per ton next year. although this expectation is still higher than the current price of about $9,200 on the london metal exchange, it is lower than the bank's previous target of $15,000 per ton.

in addition, goldman sachs also lowered its 2025 aluminum price forecast from $2,850 per ton to $2,540. the bank maintained its bearish views on iron ore and nickel, and said gold was its top choice for hedging geopolitical and financial risks in the near term.

goldman sachs remains confident in gold

"gold is the commodity we are most confident will rise in the short term." goldman sachs has frequently mentioned similar words recently.

currently, goldman sachs maintains its target price of $2,700 per ounce at the beginning of 2025, believing that as the federal reserve prepares to cut interest rates, inflows from western asset management institutions will drive precious metals up, and continued strong demand from central banks will continue to provide support. the bank wrote in the report:

we recently recommended a long trade strategy for gold based on increased central bank demand for the metal, expectations for upcoming fed rate cuts, and gold’s significant advantages as a geopolitical hedge.

the current spot gold price is currently reported at $2,497 per ounce. based on this calculation, goldman sachs believes thatby the beginning of next year, gold prices still have more than 8% room to rise.

goldman sachs' "5d commodity bull market" is a thing of the past, and the commodity bear market cycle has arrived

on may 29 this year, goldman sachs pointed out in a report that it is still selectively bullish on commodities and expects the total return rate to rise from 13% to 18% in 2024.

goldman sachs also mentioned the so-called "5d bull market trends": disinvestment, decarbonization, de-risking, datacenters & ai, and defense spending. these trends will bring structural opportunities for commodities.

disinvestment: investment levels in commodity production capacity have been low since the mid-2010s, with capital expenditure shifting from long-cycle projects to short-cycle projects. this trend has led to structural tensions in certain areas, such as the mining of green base metals such as copper and aluminum, the refining of petroleum products, and tanker projects.

decarbonization & climate change: achieving carbon neutrality requires an annual investment of 2% of global gdp in green infrastructure. the rise of electric vehicles illustrates the net bullish effect of decarbonization on investment and commodity demand. climate change also affects the supply of agricultural commodities. for example, due to bad weather, cocoa and coffee prices rose by 100% and 15% respectively in 2024. climate change also increases freight rates. for example, low water levels in the panama canal have prompted cargo ships to turn to longer routes.

de-risking: geopolitical risk trends are favorable for gold and key commodities. for example, emerging market central banks buy gold to hedge against geopolitical and financial shocks, and new geopolitical shocks may push up gold prices. in addition, the increase in strategic reserves of key commodities including crude oil, distillate products, key minerals (such as copper, palladium, cobalt) and soybeans/corn also supports the demand for commodities.

datacenters & ai: the widespread use of artificial intelligence could push up commodity prices by increasing demand for electricity, natural gas, and key metals. first, the rapid growth of data centers that support cloud computing and artificial intelligence algorithms has supported demand for electricity, which in turn can boost demand for natural gas and key metals such as copper and uranium.

defense spending: global military spending increased by 7% in real terms last year to $2.4 trillion, accounting for 2.3% of global gdp. increased global military spending has boosted demand for metals and fuels, as well as strategic minerals such as copper, aluminum, steel, silver, and uranium.

goldman sachs predicted at the time that gold and copper would continue to rise, oil prices would fluctuate, and natural gas would have limited gains: copper prices may rise 15% to $12,000 per ton by the end of the year; gold prices are expected to reach a target price of $2,700 per ounce by the end of the year; brent crude oil prices will fluctuate in the range of $75-90; and natural gas prices will have limited room for increases this summer.

however, global commodities have now entered a bear market cycle.

hsbc said in a research note this week thatthe commodity market entered a bear market cycle in mid-july, which usually lasts for three months.global commodities continued to fall in august, with oil, iron ore and copper falling the most. of the 42 commodities tracked by hsbc, 27 saw price declines in august.