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author: liu yuanju

financial columnist

researcher at several think tanks

it’s almost time for apple to hold its press conference, but an online rumor has caused confusion among many apple fans.there are rumors on the internet that wechat may not support iphone 16, and apple users will not be able to use wechat after upgrading.

tencent explicitly stated that this rumor was a lie. apple customer service was more ambiguous, saying, "wechat is an app that customers use very often, and the new iphone will not shut down and deprive customers of the app permissions that they normally use. we have not received any official notification that iphone 16 does not support wechat." the ambiguity of this reply is: if the user has never downloaded it, or is a new apple user, does that mean they cannot download it?

the "apple tax" is the highest in china, with a 30% tax regardless of profit or loss

behind this rumor is a commonplace issue: “apple tax”.

the so-called apple tax means that when apple users pay to download apps through the apple mobile app store or purchase digital goods/services within the app, they need to use apple's payment system. after apple takes a certain percentage of the commission, it will transfer the remaining money to the app developer.

simply put, apple believes that as long as the transaction occurs on its own mobile phone, it should extract a certain percentage of the profits. however, some applications such as wechat mini programs and bytedance apps have bypassed apple's rule. the huge number of users means that there are huge interests involved, so apple put pressure on tencent and bytedance, requiring the two companies to cooperate in plugging payment loopholes, and stated that if the ability of developers and users to bypass the apple ecosystem is not eliminated, it will refuse to provide wechat updates in the future. so, there was the previous rumor,

wechat has clearly rejected apple's request, and this attitude is not difficult to understand.

the cost of the apple tax will eventually be passed on to consumers. if you receive a 10 yuan tip from a customer in your live broadcast room, apple will take 3 yuan.in order to make up for the loss, many services on apple will increase their prices, some directly by 30%, leaving consumers to bear all the costs. this results in the cost of using app for iphone users being much higher than that for android users.

but at the same time, mini programs are an application ecosystem with a very low threshold. i myself once made a mini program for converting long texts to images, which cost only a few thousand yuan to develop. as you can imagine, there are many low-frequency and diversified small applications, and behind them are some small and medium-sized enterprises, and many individuals like me. therefore, if apple wants to take 30%, although it is the developer's money, it will also harm the ecosystem of wechat mini programs.

moreover, the apple tax in the chinese market is the highest in the world, reaching 30%. apple's commission rate in the united states is 27%, in south korea it is 26%, and in the european union it is as low as 17%, and supports third-party payment.regardless of whether the company makes a profit or a loss, a 30% tax is imposed, which is a very high tax rate. the us federal corporate income tax is only 21%.

of course, wechat was able to refuse because it spans multiple fields such as instant messaging, social media, payment, and video, and is a national-level application with extremely high stickiness in china. this is also based on the confidence of the technology model.

apple's business model is coming to an end

in recent years, protests against apple's tax have emerged in many parts of the world. for example, tesla ceo musk once criticized apple three times a day on twitter, saying that the "apple tax" was unreasonable. platforms such as spotify and epic games have also had disputes with apple. regulatory agencies in the european union, the netherlands, and south korea have also punished apple.

apple tax has always existed, so why did the controversy only erupt in the past two years? in my opinion, this is not because consumers, businesses, and regulators have awakened and realized this problem, but because of deeper reasons:the time has come - apple’s mobile phone business model has reached its historical node.

a new business model or new ecosystem formed by a new technology will initially experience an explosive development period. during this stage, it will expand rapidly and enter all aspects of society's economy, production, and life.

it has technological dividends, few competitors, and rapid growth. various secondary innovations will be derived around it, and huge business opportunities will be discovered. therefore, this new technology and new model will have super negotiation power and super control power in the face of various new market opportunities, market connections, and market cooperation generated by it, and thus have super profit-making capabilities.

as time goes by, technology matures, spreads, and becomes popular. the benefits of technology are exhausted. all the places that should be expanded have been expanded, all the opportunities that should be explored have been explored, and competitors have filled the market. then, this new technology and new model have become old technology and old model, and the bargaining power and control power have declined, and the profit is naturally reduced.

looking back at human history, it is not difficult to find that this process has occurred in different technological stages of mankind.

on august 27, 1859, the world's oil industry was born beside oil creek in titusville, pennsylvania, usa. just over 20 years later, in the 1880s, the american standard oil trust headed by rockefeller rose. this was the first generation of oil giants, and played a vital role in the economic life of the time. rockefeller had his own oil fields, refineries, gas stations, oil depots, as well as his own railways, pipelines, and even a company that made oil barrels. he was an independent oil kingdom, a "super trust." in order to make the railway company comply, rockefeller closed the refinery, leaving the railway company with no goods to transport, and finally had to compromise.

in 1911, the standard oil empire disintegrated and evolved into exxon, chevron, and mobil. today, oil is still the foundation of modern life, and many oil giants are still the core of the world's oil industry, but the influence and control of the giants on the economy have long been a thing of the past.

in the 1990s, when the internet was just emerging, browsers were the gateway to the internet. in 1994, netscape launched the browser netscape, which was an "apple moment". within four months of its release, it occupied three-quarters of the browser market share. at that time, microsoft's windows operating system was in its heyday, and with its super control, it immediately fought back. in mid-1995, microsoft released ie1.0, and three months later released 2.0. not only was it free, but the ie browser was also pre-installed in the operating system in an attempt to suppress netscape. this also triggered an antitrust lawsuit.

at an antitrust hearing, a microsoft executive famously said, "a browser is like a car's headlight. it's reasonable to give it away with the car." microsoft also bundled players, msn, and other products into its operating system. in the days that followed, microsoft encountered antitrust lawsuits many times, but in the end, it was the technological development itself that really had an impact.

today, the market share of microsoft's operating system is being eroded by android and ios. on the other hand, even though windows still occupies a large share of it productivity, its influence on the economy and its control over the global information industry have greatly declined. even if microsoft bundles anything else into its operating system, it is no longer important.

the world has suffered from the "apple tax" for a long time. daring to resist means apple's dominance will decline

as the pioneer of smartphones, apple also has this super-strong control power. one of the specific manifestations is the "apple tax."according to sensor tower statistics, the "apple tax" generated approximately us$22.34 billion in global revenue in 2013, equivalent to rmb 160.8 billion.on a larger scale, apple will have $166 billion in cash in april 2023. ultimately, this is because apple is a pioneer of a new model and has super control.

however, although apple’s business model itself is closed, the entire mobile phone technology and mobile phone revenue model are open and constantly spreading.it has been 16 years since the release of iphone 4 in 2004 and iphone 16 today. in the it era, technological innovation, popularization and maturity are much faster.

apple still has many advantages, but it is no longer the leader it once was. in some areas, it has even become a follower. for example, in terms of foldable screens, full screens, wireless charging power, and cameras, the android camp is generally ahead. many consumers have also given up buying apple because of the lack of major improvements in hardware and performance.

therefore, many times, challenges arise and criticism of prices is only a superficial reason. in the final analysis, it is the market conditions behind that have changed. it is not because people find the prices high, but because, as the control power decreases, more people in the market "dare" to speak out.

for example, if a startup company made an app and launched it on the apple store in 2008, the opportunities and wealth would be completely different from those launched on the apple store now. now the overall potential opportunities are smaller, but there are more choices. therefore, no one would argue with apple about the apple tax back then, but now there are many voices.

this does not necessarily mean that apple no longer has overall advantages, but the control of the apple model is obviously no longer as strong as it used to be.

in fact, the market share also confirms this. in the first quarter of 2024, china's smartphone shipments were 63.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%.in the ranking of top manufacturers, apple is no longer among the top five.data shows that during the statistical period, the market share of the four major chinese manufacturers was comparable: oppo/oneplus won the championship with a share of 17.1%. honor followed closely with a share of 16.7%. huawei's shipments increased significantly by 118.8% year-on-year, accounting for 16.6% of the market. vivo and xiaomi ranked fourth and fifth with market shares of 16.1% and 15.0% respectively. apple's market share accounted for only 13.7%, falling out of the top five.

everything has its own cycle of birth, existence, decay and death (the four kalpas in buddhism), and business models are no exception. so, to some extent, the controversy between apple and wechat that we are seeing now is a process in which apple's technology model develops on its own technology model timeline.

in the future, apple's control will further decline, and there will be more disputes. this is a process of constantly finding a balance point and maintaining a dynamic balance among various business models, business connections, and business cooperation in the market on the timeline of technology and business development.

of course, even if the it industry develops rapidly, it will still be a long process, so there will not be such a decisive thing as "apple phones cannot use wechat".as two such large international companies, they have a lot of overlap in business and are also cautious about their social image. they will not and dare not ignore the interests of consumers for their own temporary interests. therefore, consumers do not need to worry and can buy any mobile phone they want with confidence.

this article is an original article specially commissioned by the phoenix news commentary department and only represents the author's views.

editor: liu jun