2024-09-05
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
in the past few years, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a long-lasting decline, and the belief in "drinking and taking medicine" has fallen at the same time. both stock investors and fund investors have suffered heavy losses. the pharmaceutical theme etfs established at high levels have given birth to many "three-cent funds". the proportion of fund investment in the pharmaceutical sector has also continued to decline, but fund investors are far more interested in the pharmaceutical sector than fund managers who manage active equity products, which is reflected in etfs, that is, "the more it falls, the more you buy."
so which sub-sectors will be the first to break through? many public fund companies believe that in an interest rate cut environment, the cost of funds will be reduced, and investors are more inclined to invest funds in areas with growth potential. as an industry with long-term growth potential, the innovative drug sector will attract more capital inflows, which will provide more financial support for innovative pharmaceutical companies and promote the rapid development of enterprises.
as the sector continued to decline, funds gradually withdrew from the pharmaceutical sector. data shows that in the second quarter of 2024, all public funds' holdings in the pharmaceutical sector continued to decline. among the public funds' heavily held holdings, pharmaceutical stocks accounted for 9.88%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points from the previous month.second quarter of the yearthe highest position was 18.23%, but the position has been adjusted quarter by quarter since then. for example, at the end of 2020, when the stock price of pharmaceutical leader wuxi apptec hit a record high, the proportion of public funds holding shares was as high as 30%, but as of the end of june 2024, it was only 21.44%.
guo xiangbo, manager of tianhong pharmaceutical innovation fund, pointed out that since 2021, the pharmaceutical index has had negative returns for three consecutive years, and the pharmaceutical sector is experiencing the longest investment difficulty period in history. in the first half of 2024, the trend investment window of the pharmaceutical sector is very short. the first opportunity is the rebound of small and medium-sized market value stocks in the pharmaceutical sector after a sharp decline in february; the second opportunity is from the end of april to mid-may, when the pharmaceutical sector has a high-low cutting opportunity after the low institutional positions and the negative performance of the first quarter have been exhausted. after the rotation of sub-sectors, they have not gone out of the main line.
guo xiangbo believes that the investment difficulties of the pharmaceutical sector in the first half of 2024 actually reflect the two major problems that the industry has been facing since the pharmaceutical sector came down from its pedestal in june 2021, namely, the downward shift of the valuation center of sub-sectors and the lack of sustained mainline opportunities in the sector. the reason is that the domestic business of most manufacturing companies in the pharmaceutical sector is disturbed by policies such as centralized procurement, negotiation, price comparison, drg (disease diagnosis related groups), coupled with the epidemic prevention cycle and anti-corruption actions in the pharmaceutical industry. the domestic performance of many companies has shown huge cyclicality, volatility and unpredictability. the internationalization logic overseas has begun to reflect geopolitical risks more and more intensively in the past two years, from cxo to low-value consumables.
in terms of etfs, many products established at high prices have become "two-cent funds" or "three-cent funds". for example, the medical etf linked to the csi medical index and the medical innovation etf linked to the csi pharmaceutical and medical device innovation index have had a net value of less than 50 cents for a long time.
but it is worth mentioning that investors are far more interested in the pharmaceutical sector than fund managers who manage active equity products, which is reflected in etfs as "the more it falls, the more you buy". when the net value of many "sanmao funds" hits new lows, bargain hunting funds are still actively entering the market. among the 38 pharmaceutical etfs, 25 products have been net subscribed by funds this year, among which huabao csi medical etf has been net subscribed as high as 9.552 billion shares, ranking first among all products, e fund csi 300 medical and health etf has been net subscribed 3.188 billion shares, tianhong guozheng biological etf and bosera hang seng healthcare etf have increased their shares by more than 1 billion shares, and among pharmaceutical theme etfs, the total share increase has exceeded 18 billion shares this year.
so, among the many sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical sector, which ones will be the first to see the dawn of recovery?
franklin templeton investments believes that looking ahead to the second half of 2024, the pharmaceutical sector is expected to gradually resume growth, among which innovative drugs are a direction worthy of special attention. at present, the balance sheet of innovative drug companies is generally divided into 20:80. high-quality innovative drug targets should have the following characteristics: sufficient cash on hand, intensive catalysts, core logic entering the realization period, and returning to growth attributes. in the medium and long term, the growth of innovative drugs may continue to be higher than that of other pharmaceutical sub-sectors. overall, we are optimistic about the long-term investment returns brought by innovative drugs.
it is understood that the innovative drug industry has the characteristics of large r&d investment and long r&d cycle. if innovative pharmaceutical companies want to build their own core competitiveness and not be eliminated by the times, they need to continue to increase their investment in the research and development of new drugs and expand new pipelines, which requires a large amount of financing.
financing has interest costs. the higher the interest rate, the greater the cost for innovative pharmaceutical companies to borrow money for research and development; the lower the interest rate, the lower the cost for innovative pharmaceutical companies to borrow money for research and development.
yang ke from cinda australia and asia fund also said that in an environment of interest rate cuts, the cost of funds is reduced, and investors are more inclined to invest in areas with growth potential. as an industry with long-term growth potential, the innovative drug sector will attract more capital inflows, which will provide more financial support for innovative pharmaceutical companies and promote their rapid development.
"at the same time, from historical experience, the innovative drug sector usually performs well during the u.s. interest rate cutting cycle. for example, in each of the federal reserve's interest rate cutting cycles, research and development-intensive industries such as biomedical technology often benefit significantly. in addition, against the backdrop of an aging population in major economies around the world, people are paying more and more attention to health, and the market demand for innovative drugs continues to grow. this provides a broad space for development for the innovative drug sector, and the industry currently has long-term growth potential," said yang ke.
yang ke analyzed that many of my country's companies involved in innovative drugs are basically based on overseas business. the fundamentals of companies that are mainly based on overseas business are differentiated. some companies are affected by the end of overseas inventory reduction, and their fundamentals have stabilized and rebounded; some companies are affected by geopolitics and will face order transfers and relocation of production capacity, which will bring new challenges. due to the economic downturn, some countries and regions are more pursuing cost-effectiveness. chinese pharmaceutical companies with competitive advantages will seize the opportunity.
in addition to innovative drugs, chu kefan, fund manager of yongying medical device etf, believes that medical devices have strong investment value and are worthy of attention in the second half of the year:
1. equipment renewal releases demand. on july 25, the national development and reform commission and other departments issued a notice on "several measures to support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in", which comprehensively arranged about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in. medical equipment renewal projects will be implemented in the second half of the year. medical equipment trade-in is an integral part of the country's policy to promote equipment trade-in. as the projects are implemented in the second half of the year, it will bring substantial business growth to medical device companies.
2.innovation is moving towards high-end overseas. medical devices, as the largest overseas sector in the pharmaceutical industry, have become a model for my country's advanced manufacturing industry to go overseas. in recent years, with the improvement of the performance of domestic medical device products, the overseas categories have moved from low-end to high-end, and the overseas revenue and profit margin of related listed companies have grown rapidly.
3.medical anti-corruption is the root cause. since the end of july last year, a one-year concentrated anti-corruption campaign in the medical field has been launched, which has caused short-term disturbances in the procurement of medical equipment and the promotion of new products into hospitals. medical anti-corruption has purified the industry ecology, accelerated the elimination of non-compliant companies, increased the concentration of industry leaders, and improved the mid- and long-term competitive landscape.
editor: liu yiwen
proofreading: liu xingying
collect and organize the latest news information and make it available for free for everyone to read
