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text: ren zeping team

introduction

we are at a critical period of the population cycle. the aging population and the declining birthrate are accelerating, and have become one of the biggest "gray rhinos". aging is the result of a shift in the way people reproduce under economic and social progress. it is a global phenomenon caused by the combined effects of low fertility rates and longer life expectancy. china cannot avoid it. however, what major changes will the speed and scale of china's aging population bring? how to deal with it?

core viewpoint

china has entered a period of "deep aging", and its aging level is at an upper-middle level globally. the trend of low birth rate and longevity has led to a continuous deepening of aging. china's population aging presents five trend characteristics:1）large scale, one in every four elderly people in the world is chinese. 2)fast, and the next 30 years will be a period of rapid aging. 3) the aging trend is obvious, and it is expected that the proportion of elderly people will exceed 10% around 2050. 4)getting old before getting rich5) urban and rural areas are inverted, with the east higher and the west lower.

the aging caused by longevity is not terrible, as it reflects the progress of society and the improvement of medical standards. however, the problem of the obvious acceleration of aging caused by the worsening of the low birth rate cannot be underestimated.from an economic perspective, this is the disappearance of the demographic dividend, and what follows is,the social dependency ratio has increased, and the burden of elderly care has increased., social security pressure increased, government debt increased, and the vitality of social innovation and entrepreneurship declined.

international perspective: how to deal with population aging? oecd countries entered the aging stage relatively early. the introduction of immigrants brought young labor, but attention should be paid to the integration of immigrants. boosting fertility mainly depends on the strength of fertility support, improving the multi-pillar pension system, delaying retirement, and reducing the intergenerational burden of pension payments.the united states is the largest immigration country. a large number of immigrants support the continued positive population growth and the stable proportion of the labor force, but the problem of immigrant integration still exists. on the one hand, germany has improved its fertility subsidy policy and promoted the work-family balance of women raising children, which has boosted the fertility rate. on the other hand, it has explored a shared pension mechanism to reduce the intergenerational burden. japan's aging is characterized by "late start, fast speed, and deep degree". because the reform of the fertility policy and the pension system missed the time window, the population structure has not improved and the social pension burden is heavy.

revelation: 1) it is a general trend to fully liberalize and encourage childbirth.first, fully liberalize childbirth. second, vigorously issue childbirth subsidies, and implement differentiated personal tax deductions and housing purchase subsidies. third, increase the supply of childcare services and provide subsidies for grandparents. fourth, improve the protection of women's employment rights and interests, and accelerate the establishment of a reasonable and effective mechanism for sharing childbirth costs between the state, enterprises, and families. fifth, establish a social support system for gender equality, such as equal maternity leave for men and women. sixth, strengthen the protection of equal rights for non-marital births. seventh, support assisted reproduction and issue assisted reproduction subsidies.2) actively respond to population aging and build an age-friendly society.first, we will accelerate the promotion of national social security coordination and give full play to the important role of the second and third pillars of the pension security system. second, we will build a lifelong learning system for the elderly, promote the policy of gradually delaying retirement, and encourage enterprises to retain and employ older workers. third, we will encourage relatives and friends to take care of and provide subsidies, and accelerate the training of professional talents in the pension industry. fourth, we will increase investment in education, improve the quality of the labor force, and shift from the demographic dividend to the human capital dividend. fifth, we will vigorously develop the "internet + pension" smart pension service system and promote aging-friendly transformation.

i believe that through a series of measures combining long-term and short-term measures, china's population structure will gradually improve, thus achieving long-term, healthy and balanced population development.

table of contents

1 current situation: china has entered a period of “deep aging”, and the declining birthrate is an “accelerator” of aging

2 characteristics: large scale, fast speed, aging population, getting old before getting rich, inverted urban and rural areas

3 impact: the demographic dividend disappears, social burden increases, and innovation vitality declines

4.1 the united states: a large immigration country + improving the quality of the labor force + improving the elderly care system

4.2 germany: enhanced immigrant talent dividend + fertility support + shared pension mechanism + delayed retirement

4.3 japan: enhancing talent dividend + delaying retirement + improving social security system + encouraging childbirth

5 revelation

text

1 current situation: china has entered a period of “deep aging”, and the declining birthrate is an “accelerator” of aging

china's current aging level is at an upper-middle level globally, and the trend of declining birthrates and longer life expectancy has led to a continued deepening of the aging population.in terms of the degree of aging, in 2000, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in china exceeded 7%, and china began to enter an aging society. in 2021, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above exceeded 14%, and china began to enter a deeply aging society. in 2022 and 2023, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above was 14.9% and 15.4% respectively. in international comparison, the global aging level was about 9.8% in 2022, of which high-income and upper-middle-income economies were 19.2% and 12.2% respectively. china's aging level exceeded that of upper-middle-income economies and closely followed high-income economies. according to the "medium plan" of the "china population forecast report 2023" by yuwa population, china is expected to enter a super-aging society with a proportion of more than 20% around 2030, and then continue to rise rapidly to about 37.4% in 2060. after stabilizing for a period of time, it will rise again to about 46% in 2080 and later. by then, nearly half of china's 800 million total population will be elderly.

without considering immigration, the main factors affecting aging are the declining birthrate and the trend of longevity:

1) the declining birthrate is an accelerator of aging. as the second and third baby boomers gradually age, coupled with the continued impact of the declining birthrate trend, the pace of aging will accelerate.after 1949, china experienced three rounds of baby booms, namely 1950-1958, 1962-1975, and 1981-1991. the first batch of baby boomers turned 65 in 2015. the second and third rounds of baby boomers will turn 65 in 2027 and 2046, respectively. the number of elderly people will rise in a step-by-step manner, and since the fourth round of baby boomers has not appeared, the low birth rate will accelerate the aging trend. it is expected that china will enter a super-aged society with a proportion of more than 20% around 2030, and then continue to rise rapidly to about 37.4% in 2060.

2) judging from the longevity trend, china’s average life expectancy is about 78 years old, and there is still room for improvement in the future.from 1950 to 2022, china's average life expectancy has increased from about 44 years to about 78.3 years, with an average increase of 2-3 years every decade in the past 20 years. at present, china's average life expectancy is significantly higher than the global average of 72.8 years and the 75.9 years of middle- and high-income economies, but lower than the 80.9 years of high-income economies. with the gradual improvement of the health system, there is still room for improvement in the future.

2 characteristics: large scale, fast speed, aging population, getting old before getting rich, inverted urban and rural areas

china's population aging presents five trend characteristics: large scale, rapid speed, aging, getting old before getting rich, inverted urban and rural areas, and higher in the east and lower in the west.

1) the scale is large: one in every four elderly people in the world is chinese.in 2023, the population aged 65 and above will be about 220 million, accounting for about a quarter of the world's elderly population, which means that one in every four elderly people in the world is chinese. according to the "medium plan" of the "china population forecast report 2023" by yuwa population, by 2030 and 2040, the number of elderly people aged 65 and above in china will reach 260 million and 350 million respectively, accounting for about 25.6% and 26.5% of the global elderly population respectively.

2) the speed is fast, and the aging population will rapidly deepen in the next 30 years.the aging of the population in my country is accelerating. from 2001 to 2010, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in china increased by 0.2 percentage points per year, and from 2011 to 2023, it increased by 0.5 percentage points per year. the aging of the population is accelerating significantly. as the second wave of baby boomers born between 1962 and 1975 gradually age and reach the end of their lives, the aging of the population in china will deepen rapidly in the next 30 years. in international comparison, it took france 126 years, britain 46 years, germany 40 years, japan 24 years, and china only 21 years to go from 7% aging to 14% deep aging; from 7% deep aging to 20% super aging, it took france 28 years, germany 36 years, and japan 11 years, and it is estimated that china will only need about 10 years.

3) the aging trend is obvious, and it is estimated that the proportion of elderly people will exceed 10% around 2050.the elderly population is divided into younger people under 80 years old and older people over 80 years old. the former have a higher level of health and most of them can take care of themselves, while the latter have a lower level of health and need more care. in 2023, there will be nearly 40 million elderly people aged 80 and above in china, accounting for about 2.8% of the total population. according to the "medium plan" of the "china population forecast report" by yuwa population, it is estimated that the proportion of the population aged 80 and above will be 3.7%, 11.0%, 18.6% and 30.4% in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 respectively.

4) the problem of aging before getting rich is prominent.in 2000, the proportion of chinese people aged 65 and above exceeded 7%, and the per capita gdp was about us$959. when the aging level of japan and south korea reached 7%, the per capita gdp was us$1,685 and us$12,257 respectively. in 2021, the proportion of chinese people aged 65 and above exceeded 14%, and the per capita gdp was about us$12,618. when the united states, japan, and south korea entered a deep aging period, the per capita gdp was us$55,000, us$40,000, and us$33,000 respectively. in 2023, china's per capita gdp will be about us$13,000, close to the lower limit of high-income countries, but china's population aged 65 and above will account for 15.4%, higher than the 12.2% level of middle- and high-income economies.

5) urban and rural areas are inverted, with the east higher and the west lower.in terms of urban and rural areas, the degree of population aging in rural areas of my country is higher than that in urban areas, and the gap is widening, with an obvious "urban-rural inversion" of aging. from 2010 to 2022, the proportion of elderly people in cities, towns and villages increased from 7.7%, 8.9% and 10.1% to 12.0%, 13.3% and 19.3% respectively. in terms of provinces, in 2022, 20 of my country's 31 provincial and above administrative units (excluding hong kong, macao and taiwan) will enter a deep aging stage, with liaoning, shanghai and chongqing having the highest degree of aging, with the proportion of elderly people accounting for 20%, 18.7% and 18.3% respectively. tibet, xinjiang and guangdong are the "youngest" provincial and above units, with the proportion of elderly people accounting for 5.9%, 8.4% and 9.6% respectively.

3 impact: the demographic dividend disappears, social burden increases, and innovation vitality declines

aging due to longevity is not terrible, as it reflects social progress and the improvement of medical standards. however, the problem of accelerated aging due to the aggravation of the low birth rate should not be underestimated. from an economic perspective, this is the disappearance of the demographic dividend, which will lead to an increase in the social dependency ratio, an increase in the burden of elderly care, an increase in social security pressure, an increase in government debt, and a decline in the vitality of social innovation and entrepreneurship...

1) as the baby boom population gradually ages and exits the labor market, the demographic dividend is shrinking rapidly, constraining potential economic growth.

in the past, my country relied on a large and young population dividend and high capital investment brought about by a high savings and investment rate to support the rapid economic growth after reform and opening up, and quickly grew into the world's second largest economy. data shows that the growth rate of china's working-age population aged 15-64 is almost synchronized with the growth rate of gdp. from 1991 to 2013, the number of china's working-age population increased from 770 million to 1.01 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%. during the same period, gdp grew by an average annual rate of 15.8%, which is in a period of rapid growth.

with the lewis turning point appearing around 2013, china's economy is facing a shift in growth rate. in 2004, china experienced its first "labor shortage", and the wages of migrant workers began to grow rapidly. in 2013, the working-age population peaked, marking the lewis turning point. the unlimited supply of labor ended, the marginal return of capital decreased, the expected return decreased, and the capital inflow slowed down, flowing to countries with a younger population age structure. data shows that the number of china's working-age population will drop from 1.01 billion to 960 million from 2013 to 2023, with an average annual gdp growth rate of 8.5% during this period.

2) the growth rate of consumption has declined and the consumption structure has become "aging".according to the life cycle consumption theory, middle-aged people have high income and expenditure levels and low average consumption propensity, while the elderly have low income and expenditure levels and high average consumption propensity. aging leads to an increase in the proportion of consumption in the economy, but due to the decline in overall social consumption vitality, the growth rate of consumption will tend to decline. according to data from the national bureau of statistics, china's final consumption expenditure accounted for 49.3% of gdp from 2010 to 2023, and the growth rate of final consumption expenditure dropped from 15.5% to 6.1% (average growth rate from 2019 to 2023).

from a structural perspective, people of different age groups have different consumption preferences. young people prefer durable goods such as cars, middle-aged people prefer their children's education, and the elderly have a strong demand for medical care.with the aging of the population, the household expenditure on tobacco and alcohol consumption has decreased, while the expenditure on medical insurance has increased; at the same time, the demand for related traditional industries such as the real estate industry chain has shown a downward trend. according to the data from the national bureau of statistics, from 2013 to 2023, the proportion of household expenditure on food, tobacco, alcohol, and clothing consumption in my country will decrease by 1.4 and 2.2 percentage points respectively, while the expenditure on transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, and medical care will increase by 1.3, 0.3, and 2.3 percentage points respectively, with the proportion of medical care expenditure increasing the most.

3) the appetite for investment risk has declined, asset allocation has tended to preserve principal and profits, and investment vitality has declined.as the population ages, the demand for risky assets by individuals increases first and then decreases. the life cycle hypothesis holds that savings increase first and then decrease in a person's lifetime. as the aging population deepens, the total social savings rate will also show a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. during the savings accumulation period, the demand for risky assets increases; entering the savings consumption period, overall investment will tend to be conservative, and the demand for risky assets will gradually decrease. according to the "china household finance survey" (chifs) of the household finance survey and research center of southwestern university of finance and economics in 2019, the proportion of people under 40 years old, 40 to 60 years old, and over 60 years old who prefer high-risk assets is 18%, 6%, and 4%, respectively. as age increases, the preference for high-risk assets gradually decreases. as the aging population deepens, the overall risk investment preference of society will also decline. from 2011 to 2019, the preference for high-risk investment has dropped from 6% to 3%.

4) the elderly support ratio is rising, the aging index is exacerbated, and the burden of elderly care is increasing.the aging index, or the ratio of the old to the young, refers to the ratio of the number of people aged 65 and above to the number of people aged 0-14 in the population, which can reflect the degree of population aging. in 2023, my country's population aging index was 94%. according to the "medium plan" of the "china population forecast report 2023" by yuwa population, the aging index will be 153% and 314.8% in 2030 and 2050 respectively. the support ratio for the elderly, or the elderly dependency ratio, refers to the ratio of the number of people aged 65 and above to the number of people of working age. since 1982, my country's support ratio for the elderly has gradually increased. by 2023, my country's support ratio for the elderly has climbed to 22.5%, which means that currently on average, 5 young people have to support 1 elderly person. according to the "medium plan" of the "china population forecast report 2023" by yuwa population, china's support ratio for the elderly will be 27.3% by 2030 and 52.4% by 2050. by then, on average, every 2 young people will have to support 1 elderly person, and the burden of elderly care will be significantly increased. in addition to the heavy burden of elderly care, the cost of giving birth, raising and educating newborns is also a major burden for young people. "with elderly people above and young people below, young people are under pressure from both ends." this is also one of the reasons that hinder young people from having children. the lower desire to have children will in turn affect the size of the labor force, thereby increasing the social pension burden.

5) the intergenerational pressure on the pension pillar is relatively high, and the accumulated balance may be exhausted.as the main force of my country's second baby boom enters the retirement stage, the pension support ratio will face a downward trend. from 2010 to 2022, the number of retired people covered by the basic pension insurance for urban employees increased from 63 million to 136 million, and the support ratio of insured employees and retirees dropped from 3.2 to 2.7, that is, on average, two employees support one retiree. the expansion of the retired population has increased the pressure on pension payments. in the past, when the age structure of the population was balanced, the pension revenue and expenditure system was able to play a good role in pension security. however, with the acceleration of aging, the scale of the labor force as a source of pension funds continues to shrink, while the scale of the elderly population with withdrawal needs is rapidly expanding. the pension will inevitably have a revenue and expenditure gap, threatening the sustainability of the public pension system. the "china pension actuarial report 2019-2050" of the chinese academy of social sciences predicts that pension revenue will not cover expenditures until 2028, and the accumulated balance will be exhausted by 2035.

6) social vitality is insufficient and innovation is weakened.on the one hand, as people age, their knowledge and experience gradually accumulate, and their innovation foundation and ability will become stronger; on the other hand, as they age, their cognitive ability may decline and their physical functions may age, which is not conducive to carrying out innovative activities. therefore, the relationship between age and innovation is not linear, but an inverted "u" shape. as people age, their innovation vitality increases first and then decreases. in addition, since people of different ages occupy different amounts of public resources, if there are too many elderly people in society, more public resource support will be needed, which will squeeze some of the public funds used for scientific research and innovation, weakening the overall innovation capacity of society.

population aging is one of the most significant "gray rhinos" of the 21st century. from a global perspective, aging is inevitable and will continue to deepen. it is estimated that the proportion of people aged 65 and above in the world will exceed 14% in 2038 and exceed 20% in 2070.according to un data, the global population has entered an aging stage since 2005, with 7% of the population aging. after 2015, the aging process of the world population accelerated, with the growth rate of the proportion of the elderly population increasing from less than 0.1 percentage point per year to 0.2 percentage point. in 2022, the global population aged 65 and above will reach 780 million, accounting for about 9.8%, of which the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income regions is 19.2%, 11.6%, 8.1%, and 3.2%, respectively. according to the "medium plan" of the world population prospects 2022, it is expected that by 2038, the proportion of the global elderly population will exceed 14%, entering a deep aging stage, and by 2070, the proportion of the global elderly population will exceed 20%, entering a super aging stage.

looking at specific countries, the degree and speed of aging vary from place to place, and the declining birth rate will accelerate the aging process.in terms of the degree of aging, monaco, japan and italy are the top three high-income economies in terms of aging. in 2022, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above will be 35.9%, 29.9% and 24.1% respectively, and they have all entered the super-aging stage. in terms of the speed of aging, the aging speed of china, japan and south korea is faster than that of western developed countries. from 7% to 14%, china, japan and south korea took about 21, 24 and 18 years respectively, while western high-income countries took more than 40 years; from 14% to 20%, china, japan and south korea took 11, 11 and 7 years respectively, while western high-income countries took more than 20 years. the main reason is that china implemented a strict family planning policy in the past, and japan and south korea also implemented a population control policy in the past. the resulting sharp decline in fertility has accelerated the transformation of the population structure and accelerated the aging process.

oecd countries entered the aging stage earlier, and the introduction of immigrants brought in young labor force, but there are problems with immigrant integration. boosting fertility mainly depends on the strength of fertility support, improving the multi-pillar pension system, delaying retirement, and other measures to reduce the intergenerational burden of pension payments.in terms of supplementing the labor force, we will mainly supplement the existing and future labor force by introducing immigrants and building a fertility support system to boost the fertility level. in terms of the pension system, we will improve the multi-pillar pension system, establish a mechanism to link pensions with aging, and reduce the intergenerational burden of pension payments.

first, introduce immigrants and young labor force, but the issue of immigrant integration still needs attention.according to oecd data, the number of new permanent immigrants in oecd countries in 2022 reached 6.1 million, a record high. among them, the permanent immigrant populations of the united states, germany, the united kingdom, and spain ranked the top four, at 1.048 million, 641,000, 521,000, and 472,000, respectively. slovakia and latvia have the fewest permanent immigrants, less than 10,000. according to the "international migration outlook 2023" released by the oecd, many countries have alleviated labor shortages by increasing quotas for immigrant workers. for example, canada has increased immigration targets in its latest immigration plan, italy and norway have increased quotas for foreign workers, the number of h-2b programs (non-agricultural temporary work visas) in the united states has reached a new high, and slovakia has simplified labor immigration procedures. some countries have also increased the threshold for low-skilled immigration, such as sweden and australia have raised minimum wage requirements.

for the host country, immigrants can provide a supply of young labor, and high-skilled immigrants can improve innovation capabilities, which is an important supplement to the labor force. however, if the income generated by a single immigrant is difficult to cover the public expenditure spent, it will increase the fiscal burden. in addition, a large number of immigrants will also bring about conflicts in cultural integration and become a social governance issue, so it is also important to promote immigrant integration. language and vocational training can be used to help immigrants better understand local culture and work habits; by simplifying the immigration certification system and increasing the proportion of digitalization and onlineization, the administrative burden related to immigration can be reduced.

second, build a fertility support system. on the one hand, it reduces the cost of childbirth and raising children through subsidies in real money, and on the other hand, it boosts the desire to have children by promoting family-work balance.the policy system of encouraging childbirth in oecd countries is often based on the establishment of specialized institutions. the policies mainly include providing equal maternity leave for men and women, increasing economic subsidies (cash, tax breaks), providing childcare services, and promoting gender equality in employment. on the one hand, fertility subsidies in the form of real money are effective in boosting fertility rates. data show that in 2019, the proportion of family welfare expenditures to gdp in oecd countries was about 2.29%, of which france's family cash welfare expenditures accounted for 3.44% in 2019, and the total fertility rate was 1.83; while south korea's family welfare expenditures accounted for 1.56%, and its total fertility rate was at the bottom. on the other hand, by improving gender equality and maternity leave, building universal childcare institutions, and promoting employment equality, it is possible to promote women's family-work balance and boost their willingness to have children and their fertility levels. (for details, see zepin macroeconomics.china fertility report 2024）

third, establish a multi-pillar pension system, link public pension spending to the level of aging, reduce the intergenerational burden, and give full play to the role of the second and third pillars.the oecd divides the pension system into three tiers: the first tier is mandatory, non-income-related pension plans, all of which are public pensions; the second tier is mandatory, income-linked pension plans, including public and private pensions; the third tier is voluntary, income-linked pension plans, all of which are private pensions.

faced with the challenge of aging, countries have taken actions to improve the sustainability of pension funds, including:

1) promote the transformation of db plans (defined benefits) to dc plans (defined contributions). chile replaced the public pay-as-you-go db plan with a private funded mandatory dc plan in 1981. the united states supports more dc plans, and the share of db plans in occupational pensions has gradually declined. the netherlands began requiring pension funds to transition from db to dc in july 2023.

2) extend the reference payment period for pension calculation. most oecd countries consider the wages of the entire career when calculating pensions, with only colombia, costa rica, france, portugal, slovenia, spain and the united states referring to only part of the career income.

3) moderately reduce the pension replacement rate. according to oecd data, the replacement rate of the population born in 1996 is 5.8 percentage points lower than that of the population born in 1940. specifically, in 60% of member countries, the replacement rate of the population born in 1996 is lower than that in 1940.

fourth, implement a policy of gradually delaying retirement, link the retirement age to life expectancy, and support employment for the elderly.since the 1970s, in order to cope with the rising pension expenditure, oecd countries have increased the payment period of pension insurance and raised the pension collection age by delaying retirement. according to the "2023 pension overview" released by the oecd, the normal retirement age in oecd countries ranges from 62 to 67 years old (except turkey), with a retirement age of 64.4 for men and 63.6 for women. as life expectancy increases, the retirement age is also increasing. more than 50% of oecd countries have raised their retirement age, from 67 to 74 in denmark, from 64.3 to 71 in estonia, and from 64 to 71 in italy.

4.1 the united states: a large immigration country + improving the quality of the labor force + improving the elderly care system

the united states entered an aging society in the 1950s, and the aging process accelerated after 2000, mainly due to the decline in the birth rate.from 1941 to 2000, the u.s. population aged 65 and over increased from 9.288 million to 35.074 million, and the proportion increased from 7% to 12.4%, with an average annual increase of 0.1 percentage point. the increase in the proportion of the elderly population during this period was mainly due to the extension of life expectancy, during which the life expectancy of the newborn population increased from 68.1 years to 76.8 years. after 2000, the aging of the u.s. accelerated significantly. from 2000 to 2022, the population aged 65 and over increased from 35.074 million to 57.795 million, and the proportion increased rapidly from 12.4% to 17.3%, with an average annual increase of 0.2 percentage point. during this period, the life expectancy of the u.s. population did not change much. the main reasons for aging were the decline in birth rate and the slowdown in the increase of the population in the lower age group. the total fertility rate fell below the replacement level of 2.1 since 2009.

the united states copes with aging in the following ways: first, it absorbs additional labor through a relaxed immigration policy, but there are problems with immigrant integration; second, it enhances the quality of the workforce by expanding the coverage of higher education, improving the quality of higher education, and enhancing the quality of the workforce. in 2020, the u.s. human capital index was 0.7, ranking among the top in the world; third, after entering an aging society, the u.s. government has reduced the social pension burden by encouraging employment for the elderly and improving the three-pillar pension system, and has created an elderly-friendly society by improving the social service supply system.

1) the united states has a relaxed immigration policy, which has attracted a large number of young and middle-aged immigrants to supplement the labor force.in 1953, the united states passed the refugee relief act, which relaxed the immigration threshold for political exiles; in 1965, the immigration and naturalization act was enacted, treating immigrants from around the world with a more equal attitude; the immigration act of 1990 was promulgated, expanding the total number of legal immigrants from 270,000 to 700,000 per year, and creating an investment immigration category; in 2003, the eb-5 investment immigration regulations were further relaxed, and investment immigration quickly heated up. with biden taking office in 2021, the united states began to vigorously promote an immigration policy with distinct liberal characteristics.

the united states has the largest influx of immigrants in the world. the large stock of immigrants supports the continued positive growth of the u.s. population and the stability of the proportion of the working-age population, but the problem of immigrant integration still exists.according to oecd data, from 2012 to 2022, the number of immigrants in the united states increased from 40.738 million to 47.331 million, and the proportion of the total population increased from 13.1% to 14.3%. during the same period, the total population of the united states continued to maintain positive growth. if the stock of foreign population is excluded, the total population of the united states will begin to decline in 2021. from the labor force data, from 2000 to 2022, the number of people aged 14-64 in the united states increased from 190 million to 220 million, and the proportion has remained above 66%. due to the relaxed immigration policy and its high fertility rate, the number of ethnic minorities in the united states continues to grow, but differences in political status, education, employment, etc. have exacerbated social divisions.

2) by expanding the coverage of higher education and improving the quality of higher education, the united states has continuously enhanced the quality of its workforce. in 2020, the u.s. human capital index was 0.7, ranking among the top in the world.as the baby boomers reached school age, the higher education act was amended twice in 1972 and 1976, respectively, to include private schools and students without high school diplomas in the scope of federal funding; in the 1970s, community colleges began to lower admission requirements and the scale of higher education expanded. since the 1980s, the focus of higher education in the united states has shifted to improving the quality of education. the united states already has nearly 70 professional evaluation agencies such as the accreditation council for collegiate schools of business (acbsp) and six regional accreditation agencies such as the higher education commission (hlc), forming a multi-level education quality assurance system. in 2022, the u.s. human capital index was 0.93, which is at the forefront of the world, similar to the united kingdom and germany, and significantly higher than developing countries such as brazil and vietnam.

3) the united states supplements the social labor force by promoting employment for the elderly, alleviates the intergenerational pension problem by improving the three-pillar pension system, and builds an elderly-friendly society by improving medical, housing and other services for the elderly.(for details, please see zeping macroeconomicsu.s. population reports）

first, the government has continuously promoted elderly education, formulated relevant laws such as the elderly law, encouraged colleges and universities to accept elderly students, provided employment training opportunities for low-income elderly people, and introduced the affordable care act to ease the medical pressure of self-employed or flexible-employed elderly people. according to data from the u.s. department of labor, the proportion of workers aged 65 and above in the united states increased from 2.9% to 6.6% from 1999 to 2022, and is expected to reach 8.5% in 2032.

the second is to establish a relatively complete three-pillar pension system of "government + employer + individual", in which the first pillar is hosted by the government and covers most people, and the second and third pillars belong to the category of private pensions. according to oecd data, the total assets of private pensions in the united states in 2022 were approximately us$23.3 trillion, accounting for more than 60% of the total pension reserves, occupying a dominant position.

third, the united states has incorporated medical care insurance into the social security system, which can cover most outpatient and inpatient expenses for people over 65 years old. it has also promoted the construction of smart elderly care facilities, established a fleet of medical vehicles for the elderly, and launched medical remote monitoring equipment to build an elderly-friendly society.

4.2 germany: enhanced immigrant talent dividend + fertility support + shared pension mechanism + delayed retirement

germany's aging process is more typical, with the characteristics of "early entry, slow speed and deep degree".in terms of the degree of aging, germany entered an aging society in the 1930s, with the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above accounting for 7%. in 1971, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above exceeded 14%, entering a deeply aging society; in 2007, the proportion exceeded 20%, entering a super-aging society. in 2023, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in germany was 22.1%, making it a country with a relatively high degree of aging among eu countries. in terms of the speed of aging, it took germany about 41 years to transition from aging to deeply aging, and 36 years from deeply aging to super-aging.

germany's aging population is deepening as the post-war baby boomers enter retirement, a lack of successors from the younger population and longer life expectancy increase.the shape of germany's population pyramid will change from an expansionary type to a static type between 1950 and 2022, and will turn into a contraction type in the 2060s.

first, after world war ii, germany experienced a post-war baby boom. the number of births from 1959 to 1968 was higher than 1.2 million each year, reaching a peak of 1.357 million. these people born during the baby boom will enter the 65-year-old aging stage after 2024.

second, although germany's declining birthrate has been brought under control, the overall fertility rate is still low, restricting the growth of the birth population. from 2010 to 2021, germany's total fertility rate increased from 1.39 to 1.58, which is the same as that of oecd countries, but still below the replacement level.

third, life expectancy in germany continues to increase. from 1990 to 2021, life expectancy at birth in germany increased from 75.4 years to 80.6 years.

the impact of germany's aging population is that the intergenerational burden of pensions has increased, the fiscal burden has increased, and the insufficient labor supply has constrained the potential economic growth rate.

first, the pay-as-you-go pension system is difficult to sustain. according to data from the german pension insurance association, germany's pension insurance plan expenditures in 2022 are about 350 billion euros, and it is expected that germany's pension expenditures will increase to more than 400 billion euros by 2026, and the pension fund will obviously be in deficit. according to the analysis of the advisory committee of the german federal ministry of economics and energy, it is expected that the ratio of working population to retired population in germany will increase to 3:2 in 2060, and the intergenerational burden of pensions will continue to increase.

second, the fiscal burden brought by high welfare spending has increased significantly. according to oecd data, germany's public social spending as a percentage of gdp increased from 22% to 30.5% between 1980 and 2022. fiscal revenue has decreased due to a decrease in the labor force. according to the federal statistical office, the total amount of tax collection on personal income such as wages in germany has been on the rise, but the average annual increase in personal income tax has dropped from 25% in 1992 to 4.6% in 2022.

third, germany's insufficient labor supply has obviously constrained its economic growth rate. from 1990 to 2022, the proportion of germany's working-age population has dropped from 68.9% to 63.8% in 2022, and the actual gdp growth rate has fluctuated from 5.6% to 1.8%.

in order to cope with an aging population, the german government has taken a series of measures, including enhancing the talent dividend of foreign immigrants, improving social security and family welfare spending, and exploring a mechanism for sharing pensions.

1) relaxing immigration policies and giving full play to immigration dividends are important means for germany to supplement its labor force.before 2000, germany was an atypical immigration country. the main channels for immigration to germany were war refugees and foreign workers. the source countries of immigrants were relatively single, and there were no clear regulations on the identity of immigrants. after 2000, the german government successively promulgated the nationality law and the residence law, which regulated the requirements for immigrants to stay in germany for a long time. since then, the threshold for foreign immigrants to enter germany has been gradually lowered. the "technical immigration law" promulgated in 2019 has greatly lowered the threshold for technical immigration, provided an equal employment environment, and opened the door to new immigrants. according to un data, germany has become the second largest immigration destination after the united states with nearly 16 million international immigrants.

2) boost fertility levels and improve population structure through child-friendly family policies.in terms of maternity benefits, women can obtain maternity benefits from health insurance or federal social security. in terms of parental benefits, parents who work part-time after the birth of their children can receive 65% of their net income before the birth of their children as subsidies for up to 14 months. if the couple takes care of the child together, they can receive 2-4 more months. in terms of child benefits, the standard subsidy is 250 euros/month/child, and the payment period is when the child is 0-18 years old. germany reduces the burden of childbirth and childcare by issuing birth and childcare subsidies, and introduces a childcare subsidy model shared by couples to promote the work-family balance of women's childcare, and the effect is obvious. from 2006 to 2016, germany's total fertility rate increased from 1.3 to 1.6, and has since remained above 1.5. (for details, see zepin macroeconomicsonly real money fertility subsidies can increase fertility rates: international experience）

3) explore a pension sharing mechanism to form a 60:40 ratio between contributors and retirees to share the pension adjustment costs, so as to alleviate the intergenerational burden brought about by aging.the german pension system consists of a "three-tier model" consisting of basic pensions, guarantees combined with the capital market, and other supplementary pension guarantees, covering more than 89% of employees. faced with the pension pressure brought about by a low birth rate and an aging population, the german government shares the costs through contributors and retirees. in order to maintain intergenerational balance, the gap between revenue and expenditure is shared between retirees and contributors. for every 1% increase in the german pension burden, about 60% is shared by increasing the contribution rate of workers, and about 40% is resolved by reducing the pension replacement rate of retirees. from 1960 to 2022, the pension contribution rate increased from 11% to 18.6%, and the pension replacement rate of retirees decreased from 53% to 43.9%.

4) implement a gradual policy of delaying retirement, extending it to 67 years old by 2031, to supplement the social labor force. from 2000 to 2019, the employment participation rate of the elderly population aged 60-65 increased by 41.8 percentage points.in 2007, the german federal assembly passed a bill stipulating that the statutory retirement age will be gradually raised starting in 2012, with monthly increments, including one month per year from 2012 to 2023 and two months per year from 2024 to 2029, which means that the retirement age will be extended to 66 in 2023 and to 67 in 2031. in order to meet the retirement needs of some special groups, the policy supplements that people who have paid pension insurance for 45 years can receive a full pension at the age of 63, and people with disabilities and special occupations can apply for early retirement. according to data from the german statistical office, the employment participation rates of the population aged 15-60, 60-65, and 65 and above in germany increased by 7.6, 41.8, and 5.2 percentage points respectively from 2000 to 2019, and the employment participation rate of the elderly population increased significantly.

4.3 japan: enhancing talent dividend + delaying retirement + improving social security system + encouraging childbirth

japan started aging late, but the speed of aging is relatively fast. it is one of the countries with the highest level of aging. in 2023, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will be nearly 30%, which is only slightly lower than monaco on a global scale.

in terms of the degree of aging, japan's aging is deepening. in 1970, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in japan was 7.1%, and japan entered an aging society; in 1994, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above exceeded 14%, and japan entered a deeply aging society; in 2005, the proportion exceeded 20%, and japan entered a super-aging society. it is one of the major economies in the world that entered a super-aging society earlier. in 2023, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in japan will be 29.1%, ranking second in the world, only lower than monaco.

in terms of the speed of aging, japan is aging faster. it took france 126 years, britain 46 years, germany 40 years to transition from aging to deep aging, but japan only took 24 years; it took france 28 years, germany 36 years, and japan only 11 years to transition from deep aging to super aging.

the main reasons for the accelerated aging process in japan are the declining birthrate and the trend towards longer life expectancy.on the one hand, japanese women's refusal to marry and have children late weakens the fertility foundation, coupled with low fertility intention, the number of births continues to decline. in 2023, japan's total fertility rate is only 1.2, ranking last among major countries in the world. in 2023, the number of births in japan was 759,000, a decline for eight consecutive years, continuing to hit a new low since data was available. on the other hand, the life expectancy of japanese people is among the highest in the world. according to the united nations "world population prospects 2022", the life expectancy of japanese people at birth in 2021 is 84.8 years, the second highest in the world, only lower than monaco (85.9 years), and the life expectancy of female people at birth is 87.7 years, the highest in the world.

japan's aging population has brought about a significant decline in social vitality, with the burden of social pension increasing, significant aging in the workplace, and squeezing of innovation resources. low vitality, low desire, and lying low have gradually become synonymous with society.

first, the elderly population has become the main support object of society, and the social pension burden is heavy. in 2022, japan's population dependency ratio was 68.4%, the highest among developed countries, of which the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio were 19.5% and 48.8% respectively, and the social pension burden was heavy.

second, the aging population has brought about an aging workplace. the systems of lifetime employment and seniority-based promotion have been implemented for a long time. corporate organizations are too redundant, making it difficult to eliminate low-quality labor. high-quality labor has its work enthusiasm dampened due to slow promotions and low salaries.

third, japan’s aging population occupies innovation resources, and its innovation capacity is frustrated. as the aging process progresses, both the government and enterprises will increase their spending on aging, which will squeeze scientific research investment to a certain extent and is not conducive to innovation.

fourth, factors such as insufficient labor supply and slowing labor productivity growth have led to a decline in the potential economic growth rate. from 1989 to 2022, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity have dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.5% to -0.4% and 0.7% respectively, and the actual gdp growth rate has dropped from 5.4% to 1.5%.

in order to cope with the problems caused by the aging population, japan has stimulated the release of the "talent dividend" by improving the education level of the labor force, encouraging childbirth, supplementing the future labor force, improving the three-pillar pension system, delaying retirement, and reducing intergenerational burdens. however, due to the missed time window for fertility support and pension system reform, japan's population structure has not improved and the social pension burden is still large.

1) japan has carried out three educational reforms to improve the educational level of the working population and realize the transformation from demographic dividend to talent dividend.in 1960, the economic council of japan published the "long-term outlook for the japanese economy", which clearly called for the creation of an education dividend during the first demographic dividend boom. in the 1970s, japan began to implement the second education reform, promoting quasi-compulsory high school education and correspondence education. since then, japan has continuously expanded the scale of higher education and gradually realized the popularization of higher education. through the formulation of the "lifelong learning promotion law", the establishment of the "science and technology nation" strategy, and the implementation of the third education reform, we have continuously improved and strengthened talent training and improved the quality of talents. according to oecd data, the proportion of japanese people aged 25-34 who completed higher education increased from 45.7% to 61.5% from 1997 to 2019, ranking fourth among oecd countries.

2) japan has implemented a gradual strategy of delaying retirement, gradually extending the retirement age from 50 or 55 to 65, and will begin to push for an extension to 70 in 2021.japan entered an aging society in 1970 and began to explore strategies for developing the elderly workforce. in 1971, japan implemented the elderly employment promotion law and clearly proposed a retirement target of 60 at the cabinet meeting in 1973. the 1986 elderly employment stability law stipulates that "when companies set retirement ages, they cannot be lower than 60 years old." in 1997, 90% of companies had adopted a 60-year-old retirement system. in 2005, japan entered a super-aging society. in 2006, it continued to increase the retirement age in stages, and in 2013 it began to extend it to 65 years old. in 2021, the stability law began to push for the retirement age to be raised to 70 years old.

in order to cooperate with the implementation of the delayed retirement policy, japan has simultaneously reformed the pension collection rules and postponed the pension payment time. the pension age for men will be raised to 65 by 2025, and the implementation for women will be postponed for 5 years. in order to reduce the burden on companies to employ the elderly, the japanese government provides subsidies to companies that employ the elderly. for each elderly person employed by large companies, the state will provide subsidies of 500,000 yen or more, and for small companies, subsidies of 900,000 yen or more. according to data from the japanese statistics bureau, the proportion of employed people aged 65 and above in japan increased from 4.2% to 13.3% from 1970 to 2023.

3) japan’s pension system is dominated by public pensions, and the reform has been delayed and missed the time window, resulting in great pressure on social security payments.japan's pension system is a three-pillar pension system dominated by public pensions, of which the first pillar is mandatory government participation, and the second and third pillars are voluntary individual participation. japan's public pension covers about 50% of the total population, and the coverage ratio of the second and third pillars is about 13%. since the 1990s, the rapid aging of the population and economic recession have gradually worsened the revenue and expenditure of japan's public pensions, but it was not until after 2000 that major reforms were made to the pension system. in 2001, an individual dc plan was established, and in 2014, an individual savings account plan was established, but the time window was missed. according to data from the ministry of health, labor and welfare, the proportion of japan's total social security payments to gdp increased from about 5% to 25.2% from 1970 to 2021, and the pressure on social security payments has increased significantly. (for details, see zeping macroeconomics.the serious consequences of japan's aging population）

4) japan has adopted a series of policies to encourage childbirth, but because it missed the window for changing its fertility policy and provided insufficient support, the effect of encouraging childbirth has been poor and the fertility rate has continued to be low.

first, japan missed the best time to adjust its fertility policy. its total fertility rate fell below the replacement level in 1974, but it did not start to encourage fertility until after 1990. france's total fertility rate fell below the replacement level in 1975, but it started to encourage fertility as early as 1939.

second, although japan has gradually increased its fertility subsidies, its support is still lower than the oecd average. according to oecd data, japan's household welfare expenditure accounted for 1.95% of gdp in 2019, lower than the oecd average of 2.29%.

third, japan's family model is still dominated by "men working outside and women working inside", and gender discrimination in the workplace still exists. according to oecd data, the gender wage gap in japan was 22.1% in 2021, 10.1 percentage points higher than the oecd average.

5 revelation

my country's aging population and declining birthrate are imminent during the 14th five-year plan period, which will affect the long-term economic and social development of china.aging is inevitable, but the accelerated impact of aging caused by the low birth rate is far-reaching and cannot be underestimated. on the one hand, we must realize that the low birth rate is the key to the population problem and actively adjust and improve the birth policy. on the other hand, we must also actively respond to the challenges brought by population aging and build an elderly-friendly society.

the adjustment of the fertility policy is the most fundamental and important supply-side structural reform, and it is a general trend to fully liberalize and encourage fertility.1) fully liberalize childbirth. fully liberalizing childbirth means returning the right to childbirth from national planning to family autonomy, returning the right to choose the number of children to the family, and fully respecting everyone's willingness to have children. 2) accelerate the construction of a childbirth support system. first, vigorously issue childbirth subsidies to effectively reduce the burden of raising children for families. it is recommended that the national level introduce a childbirth subsidy policy, which will be issued by 1,000-6,000 yuan per month according to the number of children. second, implement a differentiated personal tax deduction policy, covering from pregnancy health care to 18 years old or the end of academic education. second, increase the supply of universal childcare services, increase the enrollment rate of 0-3 years old from the current 4% to 40%, and issue intergenerational care subsidies. third, further improve the protection of women's employment rights and interests, implement tax incentives for enterprises, and accelerate the construction of a reasonable and effective sharing mechanism for childbirth costs between the state, enterprises, and families. fourth, increase investment in education and medical care, provide housing subsidies to families with children, and reduce direct costs of raising children. fifth, establish a social system of gender equality, such as equal maternity leave for men and women. sixth, strengthen the protection of equal rights for non-marital births. seventh, improve the top-level design of assisted reproduction and issue assisted reproduction subsidy coupons to families in need.

actively respond to population aging, create high-quality products and services for the elderly, and build an elderly-friendly society.first, we will accelerate the promotion of national social security coordination and give full play to the important role of the second and third pillars of the pension security system. second, we will build a lifelong learning system for the elderly, promote the policy of gradually delaying retirement, and encourage enterprises to retain and employ older workers. third, we will encourage relatives and friends to take care of and provide subsidies, and accelerate the training of professional talents in the pension industry. fourth, we will increase investment in education, improve the quality of the labor force, and shift from the demographic dividend to the human capital dividend. fifth, we will vigorously develop the "internet + pension" smart pension service system and promote aging-friendly transformation.

i believe that through a series of measures combining long-term and short-term measures, china's population structure will gradually improve, thus achieving long-term, healthy and balanced population development.