news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

【Text/Observer Network columnist Chen Xiangmiao】

At 14:12 on August 25, the Philippine ship No. 3002 illegally intruded into the waters near the Xianbin Reef of China's Nansha Islands and deliberately rammed the Chinese Coast Guard Boat No. 21551 that was carrying out normal law enforcement, resulting in a collision.

This is the second collision involving a Philippine Coast Guard ship near the Xianbin Reef, following the deliberate collision on August 19 between the Philippine ship No. 4410 and the Chinese boat No. 21551, which was carrying out normal law enforcement operations.

From the analysis of existing public historical materials, the Philippines was the first country to illegally occupy China's South China Sea islands and reefs. To date, the Philippines has not stopped its territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Unlike the naked strategy of expanding territory by force in the 20th century, after entering the 21st century, with the changes in the regional and international situation, the Philippines has gradually adopted a strategy of "soft occupation". The Philippines' recent presence in Xianbin Reef for the purpose of actual occupation has once again revealed the ambition of this new strategy.

The Philippines’ territorial expansion in the South China Sea

Since the 1970s, driven by its ambitions for territorial expansion and the need for national security, the Philippines has pursued an expansionist policy, using a combination of force and soft occupation in multiple stages to advance its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.

The first stage was from the 1970s to the 1980s. On August 23, 1970, the Philippines occupied Mahuan Island in the Nansha Islands by force, thus starting the process of the Philippines' territorial expansion in the South China Sea. In April 1971, the Philippines repeated its old tricks and illegally occupied Nanyao Island and Zhongye Island in the Nansha Islands. In the 1970s, the Philippines also occupied eight islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands, including Feixin Island, Xiyue Island, Beizi Island, Lingling Reef and Shuanghuang Sandbank, by force.

The second stage was from the late 1990s to 2016. The islands and reefs occupied by the Philippines in the first stage were all marine features that emerged from the water at high tide, such as Zhongye Island, which is the second largest marine feature in terms of natural land area in the Nansha Islands. After the late 1990s, the Philippines began to covet some marine features with relatively backward natural conditions in the Nansha Islands and Zhongsha Islands, and began the second round of territorial expansion through warships "beaching" and sea area patrols.

In May 1999, the Philippines grounded a tank landing ship provided by the United States on Ren'ai Reef in the Nansha Islands on the pretext of technical failure, thus starting a new wave of control over uninhabited islands and reefs in the South China Sea. In November of the same year, the Philippines attempted to stage the "Ren'ai Reef Model" on Huangyan Island. Although it failed, the Philippine Coast Guard and Navy exercised control over Huangyan Island through patrols. Later, the Philippines also revealed its ambition to occupy Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands.

The third stage was after the ruling of the "South China Sea Arbitration Case" was issued in 2016, when the Philippines began to take actual control measures over all other seas in the "Kalayaan Islands" it claimed.

The so-called "Kalayaan Islands" is the name given by the Philippines to the islands and reefs of the Nansha Islands it claims, all of which are located within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Ships of the Philippine Coast Guard and Navy have begun to drive away and take other disruptive measures against fishing boats and coast guard ships from other coastal countries, including China, on islands and reefs such as Half Moon Shoal, Xianbin Reef, Cow Horn Reef, and Horseshoe Reef. Most of these islands and reefs have relatively poor natural geographical conditions, and it is difficult to illegally occupy them by force without land reclamation. Therefore, the Philippines adopts a "soft occupation" strategy, that is, maintaining actual control through regular patrols and institutionalized rotation of garrisons.

The Philippines' "step-by-step" approach to Xianbin Reef

Xianbin Reef is located about 77 nautical miles west of Palawan Province in the Philippines, about 77 nautical miles away from Mahuan Island and Feixin Island, and less than 167 nautical miles from Zhongye Island. According to public information, from the original sporadic patrols and interference to regularized control and attempted forced occupation, the Philippines can be said to be "step by step" in Xianbin Reef.

As early as 2011, the Philippines tried to control the Xianbin Reef by patrolling with naval warships and controlling the sea area. In January 2012, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs cited a report from the Philippine Department of Defense that two Chinese ships and a Chinese naval warship were active in the waters of Xianbin Reef in December of the previous year and lodged a protest. According to public reports, the Philippines often controls the Xianbin Reef by patrolling and interfering with other countries' maritime activities.

With the release of the ruling of the "South China Sea Arbitration Case" on July 12, 2016, Philippine forces represented by the Coast Guard began to frequently hype and drive away the activities of Chinese fishing boats in the waters of Xianbin Reef.

For example, on April 27, 2021, the Philippine Coast Guard and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources discovered seven Chinese "militia ships" operating at Xianbin Reef and drove them away. The so-called "militia ships" of the Philippines are actually fishermen (boats) from coastal areas of Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong and other places in China, which have traditionally used the South China Sea as their fishing grounds. Chinese fishermen have been fishing and taking shelter at Xianbin Reef and its surrounding waters for a long time. Before the 1930s, through long-term production practice and observation, they figuratively called Xianbin Reef "fish scales". This conclusion drawn by naked eye observation is completely consistent with the natural geographical shape of Xianbin Reef at low tide and high tide as photographed by modern satellites.

Since February 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard has proposed the so-called "exposure strategy" (later known as the "transparency plan") and has begun to hype and interfere with the activities of Chinese fishing boats in Xianbin Reef more frequently. In February 2023, the Philippines claimed to have discovered 26 Chinese fishing boats operating around Xianbin Reef and in the lagoon, and frankly admitted that China has gained the upper hand. In July of the same year, the Philippine Navy claimed to have discovered three Chinese Coast Guard ships and two Chinese Navy ships "wandering" around Xianbin Reef.

After entering 2024, in addition to continuing to hype and interfere with the activities of Chinese fishing boats on the Xianbin Reef, the Philippines began to dispatch Coast Guard, Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Navy ships and fishing boats to organize activities on the Xianbin Reef with the purpose of actual occupation.

On June 4, the Philippine Coast Guard flagship ship "Theresa Magbanuya" held a command handover (personnel rotation) ceremony in the Xianbin Reef Lagoon. At the same time, the Philippine Coast Guard patrol boat "Cabra" carrying so-called "marine scientists" and a group of media reporters illegally landed on Xianbin Reef and carried out diving activities. On June 12, the Philippine Coast Guard chose the country's 126th Independence Day, the special time, to hold the first flag-raising ceremony at Xianbin Reef. Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Armando Balilo said that the patrol ship "Theresa Magbanuya" has been stationed at Xianbin Reef for a long time.

Since July 2024, the Palawan Provincial Coast Guard District of the Philippine Coast Guard has begun to organize supply ships, Coast Guard patrol ships, naval warships and fishing boats to gather at Xianbin Reef, and began to use Xianbin Reef as a hub for the Philippines to transport supply to the illegally occupied islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands.

On July 1, the Philippines sent three coast guard ships to transfer personnel and supplies to the Coast Guard Ship 9701 stranded at Xianbin Reef. Since August 3, patrol boats and several fishing boats of the Philippine authorities have gathered in the waters near Xianbin Reef. In the early morning of August 19, the Philippine Coast Guard patrol ships 4410 and 4411 broke into the waters near Xianbin Reef under the cover of darkness and rammed the Chinese Coast Guard law enforcement boat, causing the two sides' ships to collide.

Considerations for the Philippine Xianbin Reef Adventure

From Ren'ai Shoal, Huangyan Island to Tiexian Reef and Xianbin Reef, the Marcos government completely changed the original track of Philippine foreign policy and defined the South China Sea issue as a priority for domestic and foreign affairs. Similar to the actions in Huangyan Island, Ren'ai Shoal and other islands and reefs, the Marcos government used Xianbin Reef as a pawn to "confirm" the "arbitration ruling", cater to the United States and consolidate domestic political power.

Although the Philippines, the United States and the Western world media have repeatedly mentioned the "South China Sea Arbitration" ruling, in fact, the "arbitration ruling" did not clearly define the legal status of Xianbin Reef. The Philippine government and opposition parties tacitly acknowledge that Xianbin Reef is a "low-tide elevation", so the Philippines enjoys various rights within the exclusive economic zone stipulated in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

On July 2, Philippine Navy spokesman Roy Vincent Trinidad claimed when talking about the Xianbin Reef, "We can do whatever we want in our exclusive economic zone." On August 18, Jay Tarriela, spokesman for the Philippine Coast Guard's "West Philippine Sea", said: "According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the 2016 Arbitration Award, Xianbin Reef is located in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone" and "Philippine Coast Guard vessels have the right to operate in the Xianbin Reef lagoon when necessary without the permission of any other country."

The tough action on the Sinbin Reef was a bargaining chip for Marcos Jr. and his political group to gain domestic public support.

According to the poll results released by the independent polling organization "Pulse Asia" in July 2024, Marcos' approval rate and trust level were 53% and 52% respectively, two percentage points and five percentage points lower than the poll in March. Vice President Sara Duterte's approval rate rose by two percentage points from March to 69%, and her trust level was 71%.

At the same time, according to the results released in June by OCTA Research, another Philippine polling organization, 76% of the 1,200 respondents believed that China was the "biggest threat" to the Philippines, and 61% of Filipinos agreed with the Marcos government's new policy in the South China Sea. A Pew Research Center poll in September 2022 also found that more than 80% of Filipinos were very or somewhat worried about military conflict with China.

The samples and results of polling organizations are usually politically biased, but the results from different organizations confirm each other and generally reflect the security concerns of the Filipino people over the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines. The tough stance on Xianbin Reef is in line with the needs of the Marcos government to consolidate and improve public support.

The action on Xianbin Reef also meets the new US strategy in the South China Sea. Many people believe that the US is behind the Philippines' "troublemaking" on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea, including Xianbin Reef. This view may need to be viewed dialectically.

The US government and think tanks did provide on-the-ground intelligence and diplomatic support for the Philippines' actions at Xianbin Reef, Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island, and helped the Philippines plan specific maritime operations behind the scenes. However, the United States is still undecided about whether to honor Articles 4 and 5 of the 1952 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and its commitment to apply the treaty to the South China Sea.

In fact, the United States does not believe that provoking a military conflict with China over the dispute over the control of islands and reefs in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China is in line with its long-term strategic interests, and has even expressed its refusal to fulfill its "South China Sea security commitment."

The Marcos government of the Philippines also realized that the United States had no intention of providing direct military support (i.e. military intervention) for the Philippines' actions on sensitive islands and reefs in the South China Sea, such as Xianbin Reef and Ren'ai Reef. This can be seen from the Philippines' response to the "June 17" incident, when the Philippine government tried hard to clarify that the incident was a "misunderstanding" and did not involve armed attacks, trying to use this to justify the United States' "non-fulfillment".

Therefore, the Philippines' actions on the Xianbin Reef are essentially the superposition of the United States' "low-cost, high-yield" and "proxy" strategies in the South China Sea. On the one hand, it aims to tie down the energy of the Chinese navy and coast guard as much as possible, and on the other hand, it aims to consume China's international reputation and economic investment to the greatest extent.

The action at Xianbin Reef also reflects the split in the domestic political landscape of the Philippines. It is more obvious that the Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the military and police departments tried to play the roles of "white face" and "red face" respectively on the South China Sea issue, but it is clear that the military and police departments have the upper hand.

Although the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs has been trying to maintain dialogue with China and establish temporary measures to control maritime tensions, its attitude is very cautious. China and the Philippines reached a "temporary arrangement" on the dispute over Ren'ai Reef in July, but the Philippines later denied the existence of "advance notification" and "verification mechanism". The Philippine Armed Forces and Coast Guard have led every replenishment operation in the South China Sea and are not receptive to the measures taken by the Maritime Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ease the situation.

It can be seen from this that the military and police departments, which have long been subject to U.S. transnational infiltration, have absolute say in the Marcos government's handling of the Xianbin Reef issue. This is the internal reason why the Philippines has adopted an adventurous approach on the Xianbin Reef.

The “American Shadow” Behind the Philippines’ Xianbin Reef Operation

As the United States' main military ally in the South China Sea, the Philippines is the "gatekeeper" of the first island chain and the "agent" of the United States in implementing the Indo-Pacific strategy in the South China Sea. The Philippines' actions at Xianbin Reef are full of American "elements". The United States' instigation, diplomatic support and on-the-ground intelligence are the "source of fresh water" for the Philippines' adventurous actions at Xianbin Reef.

The US government and the opposition are the initiators of the Philippines' "soft occupation" plan on Xianbin Reef. Since 2021, US think tanks have been hyping up the activities of Chinese fishing boats on islands and reefs in the South China Sea. From Niuye Reef, Zhongye Island to Litsea Reef and Xianbin Reef, the US has been trying to remind or even instigate the Philippines to take "countermeasures."

With the help of satellite aerial images provided by the United States and its allies, the Philippine Coast Guard began to conduct large-scale "investigations" and "exposures" of Chinese fishing boats operating in the South China Sea. The United States and the Philippines attempted to define Chinese fishing boats as "militia ships" with government backgrounds, thereby deliberately mischaracterizing China's fishing activities as "island and reef control."

The timely diplomatic statement of the United States also facilitated the Philippines to gain support from the international community. After the "August 19" conflict between China and the Philippines at the Xianbin Reef, the US State Department issued a statement on the same day, condemning China's "dangerous" and "reckless" actions, believing that these actions were the latest example of China using dangerous and escalatory measures to implement its extensive and "illegal" claims in the South China Sea.

The United States' South China Sea security commitment is the basis for the Philippines to make further advances in the Xianbin Reef. Similar to the State Department's statement on August 19, on August 20, U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan called Philippine National Security Advisor Eduardo Año and condemned China's "deliberate collision" with two Philippine Coast Guard vessels that were legally operating in the waters near the Xianbin Reef in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and reiterated that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft (including its Coast Guard aircraft) that are attacked anywhere in the South China Sea.

Similarly, according to public information, the US Navy also provided advice to the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard on the action plan at Xianbin Reef. In addition, the US provided on-the-spot intelligence support for the Philippines' so-called "replenishment operation" at Ren'ai Reef with P-8A patrol aircraft, which also applies to Xianbin Reef.

It can be seen from this that the Philippines’ activities in the South China Sea are inseparable from the support of the United States and will inevitably bring more risks to the South China Sea region.

This article is an exclusive article of Guancha.com. The content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. It cannot be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Follow Guancha.com WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.