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Text丨Qin Jiali‍‍‍‍‍

Editor: Li Zhuang

The prices of new homes in Shanghai and Xi'an started to rise first, and China Overseas and Greenland, which had large-scale launches and land acquisitions, benefited greatly.

As the few cities with rising housing prices, Shanghai and Xi'an have unique housing markets this year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices in Shanghai and Xi'an led the country in July, with Shanghai's new home prices rising by 0.2% and 4.4% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively; Xi'an's new home prices rose by 0.2% and 3.4% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively. This is the 26th consecutive month that new home prices in Shanghai have risen.

The supply and transaction volume of high-end improvement properties increased, pushing up housing prices in Shanghai and Xi'an. In addition to the increase in housing prices, the scale of housing market transactions, housing supply types, and land transaction amounts in Shanghai this year all showed independent trends.

As the property markets in Shanghai and Xi'an heat up, China Overseas Land & Investment and Greentown China have become the biggest winners. According to the China Index Academy, from January to July this year, China Overseas Land & Investment and Greentown China ranked first and second in the sales amount list of Shanghai real estate companies. In Xi'an, Greentown China has become the local "sales champion".

Shanghai and Xi'an lead the country in housing price increases

Shanghai new home prices have risen for 26 consecutive months

In the context of overall stable real estate prices,The property markets in Shanghai and Xi'an have developed independent trends.According to the National Bureau of Statistics' data on the price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July, new home prices in Shanghai and Xi'an led the country in terms of price increases. Among them, new home prices in Shanghai rose by 0.2% and 4.4% month-on-month and year-on-year, respectively; new home prices in Xi'an rose by 0.2% and 3.4% month-on-month and year-on-year, respectively (see Table 1).

Table 1: New Commercial Housing Sales Price Index in 70 Large and Medium Cities in July 2024

As of July this year,Shanghai new home prices have risen for 26 consecutive months, which is almost the only one in the country.Shanghai is also the only city among the 70 cities in China where the price of second-hand houses has increased.In July, the price of second-hand houses rose by 0.1% month-on-month.

The price of new houses in Xi'an has also continued to rise.Xi'an new home prices have risen for 14 consecutive months, until a brief decline in May this year, when new home prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month. Currently, Xi'an housing prices have resumed their growth trend, with new home prices rising again in the past two months.

However, compared with the simultaneous increase in first-hand and second-hand housing prices in Shanghai,There is a clear polarization in Xi'an's real estate market, and local second-hand housing prices have declined.In July this year, the price of second-hand houses in Xi'an fell by 0.6% and 5.9% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively.

From the perspective of product categories, large-sized improvement projects pushed up housing prices in Shanghai and Xi'an, with the most obvious increase in prices for commercial housing over 144 square meters in both cities. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July this year, the average price of new homes over 144 square meters in Shanghai increased by 5.7% year-on-year; the average price of new homes over 144 square meters in Xi'an increased by 5.5% year-on-year.

Not only did house prices rise, but also the transaction volumeRecently, both the volume and price of new and second-hand houses in Shanghai have increased.According to data from China Index Academy and other institutions, in June and July this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai was 23,700 and 18,000 respectively, up 95% and 45% year-on-year; local new home sales are also accelerating, with the average transaction area of ​​new homes in June and July being 690,000 square meters, up 41% from the monthly average from January to May. Overall, the transaction volume of new homes in Shanghai in June this year hit a one-year high, and second-hand homes returned to their peak in three years.

The increase in transaction volume in Xi'an's real estate market is mainly reflected in the second-hand housing market.According to data from the Xi'an Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, the number of second-hand residential properties registered online in Xi'an in July was 9,268, up about 12.96% month-on-month. The local second-hand housing market was characterized by "trading price for volume."

Along with the commodity housing market, the land auction markets in the two places have also developed independent trends. According to the monitoring data of China Index Academy, the total amount of residential land transfer fees in the top 20 cities in the first half of 2024 was 366.02 billion yuan, of which Shanghai ranked third with 42.32 billion yuan, followed by Xi'an, which ranked fourth with 32.37 billion yuan.

The supply of commercial housing in the two places is also at a relatively high level this year, and real estate developers are actively launching new projects. For example, according to the monitoring of the Xi'an Branch of China Index Academy, from January to July 2024, the Xi'an Commercial Housing Intention Registration Platform completed 242 project registrations, and about 34,000 housing units entered the market, an increase of 5.76% compared with the same period last year.

According to the sales scale list of Xi'an real estate companies from January to July 2024 disclosed by China Index Academy, the total sales volume of the top 10 real estate companies in Xi'an reached 66.46 billion yuan, an increase of 10.12% over the same period last year. The leading real estate companies have obvious advantages in market competition, and the market concentration has also further increased.

Whether judging from the increase in new home prices, the scale of land transfer or the number of new projects launched by real estate developers, the real estate markets in Shanghai and Xi'an have been bucking the trend this year.

Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Shanghai Centaline Property, told the magazine that the current housing prices in Shanghai are more of a structural increase: "Compared with products with an area of ​​less than 90 square meters and 90 square meters to 144 square meters, the prices of houses above 144 square meters are more stable. This structural increase has had a relatively large impact on the market."

In Lu Wenxi's opinion,At present, the chain of replacement of new and second-hand houses in Shanghai has gradually been opened up."In the past two months, the second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai have been quite active, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses with a total price of about 300 to 500 million has been gradually increasing, and the entire replacement chain is slowly becoming smoother."

Guan Rongxue, senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, told the magazine that in the context of a general decline in housing prices across the country, the sudden rise in new home prices in Xi'an is related to factors such as the local net population growth, residential land supply, and commercial housing product structure. For example, the increase in demand for improvement products has pushed up housing prices. However, compared with the continuous increase in new home prices, Xi'an's second-hand home prices are on the decline.The continued rise in new home prices may squeeze more buyers into the second-hand housing market.

High-end improvement properties push up prices

Shanghai welcomes a year of "luxury home" boom

Favorable policies for the property market and an increase in the supply of high-end properties are important factors driving the market heat up in Shanghai and Xi'an. Since May this year, in addition to the "May 17 New Policy" that benefits the market, Shanghai's "Nine Measures" new policy, and Xi'an's lifting of purchase restrictions, the threshold and cost of buying a house have been lowered.

at the same time,The current rise in housing prices in core cities is closely related to the transaction volume of high-end improved properties.Especially in Shanghai, high-end real estate projects with an average price of "100,000+" have been launched into the market in large numbers since the beginning of this year, and many "day-sold" properties have been born.

This year is the year when "luxury homes" are entering the market in Shanghai. Various high-priced architectural projects have emerged, such as Shunchang Jiuli under China Overseas Real Estate, Riverside Arc de Triomphe under Sun Hung Kai Properties, Sunac Bund One Courtyard, Poly Expo Tianyue, Hong Kong Land Qiyuan, CapitaLand Maoming Residences, Shanghai Chenjia 100 Jiabaidao and other high-end improvement real estate projects with outstanding sales performance. Among them, China Overseas Shunchang Jiuli, Riverside Arc de Triomphe, Shanghai Chenjia 100 Jiabaidao and other projects have achieved "sunlight".

According to data from China Index Academy, the number of projects with sales exceeding RMB 5 billion has increased to 17 in 13 cities this year, with Shanghai leading the way with 10. Two of the three large-scale projects with sales exceeding RMB 10 billion in China were built in Shanghai, including Shanghai Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli and Oceanwide International Residential District (Sunac Bund One), with sales of RMB 18.86 billion and RMB 10.29 billion respectively.

Entering August,Shanghai's high-end real estate market continues to be hot, and local "luxury homes" are entering the market in droves. On August 17, two major "luxury homes" in Shanghai opened at the same time, and both were "sold out".Among them, the second batch of the second phase of Sunac Bund One Courtyard, located in the core area of ​​Huangpu, was launched, with a total of 110 housing units launched, with an average price of 171,000 yuan/square meter. All units were sold out on the same day, with a total sales amount of 5.674 billion yuan; Yuexiu·Suhe·Heyue Mansion, located in Putuo District, was also sold out on the first day of its launch, with an average sales price of about 103,600 yuan/square meter, and a total of 1.735 billion yuan in revenue from 124 housing units.

At present, the competition of "luxury houses" in Shanghai has entered the second half. In addition to the above-mentioned Sunac Bund One Courtyard and Yuexiu·Suhe·Heyue Mansion, many high-end projects such as Jinyuan project developed by Xinhu and Sunac, Longsheng Bay Shang under Longsheng Group, Greentown Qiantan Lily Garden, Poly Expo Tianyue, etc. have been launched in the market recently. Among them, Longsheng Bay Shang was the first to be launched, with an average sales price of 133,800 yuan/square meter, and 115 of the 120 units were sold; Xinyangsi·Shangyuan, jointly developed by Guomao Real Estate and China Railway Construction, also ushered in the third batch of launches, this time adding 98 units, with an average price of 99,950 yuan/square meter, and the first opening sales rate was about 95%.

China Overseas and Greentown become the regional sales champions

Greentown China invests heavily in Shanghai

In Shanghai and Xi'an, China Overseas Land & Investment and Greenland China became the biggest winners on the best-selling list this year.

From January to July this year,China Overseas Land & Investment remains the sales champion in Shanghai.According to the list of China Index Academy, China Overseas Land & Investment ranked first in the sales list of Shanghai real estate companies with a regional sales volume of 27.412 billion yuan (see Table 2).

During this period, China Overseas Real Estate set many sales records. At the end of June, Lingdi Jiuxu, located in Xuhui Riverside, Shanghai, was launched on the first day of sale. The clearance process took less than 90 minutes. The average price of the project was 146,100 yuan/square meter, and the sales revenue was 6.6 billion yuan on the same day. Also in this month, 49 villas in Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli, with an average price of 298,000 yuan/square meter, were announced to be sold out at the launch, setting a new record for the average price of new houses in Shanghai. Looking back, in March this year, the third batch of 512 high-rise houses in Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli entered the market with an average price of 172,000 yuan/square meter, and the sales volume on the same day was nearly 20 billion yuan, becoming the "king of the market" in China.

Greentown China followed closely behind, ranked second in the Shanghai real estate sales list with a regional sales of 17.466 billion yuan from January to July this year. In Shanghai, where hot properties are concentrated, the three Shanghai regional projects of Greentown Bund Lanting, Greentown Qinlan Garden and Greentown Liuxiang Garden achieved sales of 5.455 billion yuan, 4.29 billion yuan and 3.476 billion yuan in the first half of the year.

New home prices also led the riseIn the Xi'an real estate market, Greenland China ranks first in sales.According to the sales list of Xi'an real estate companies from 1 to 7 disclosed by China Index Academy, Greentown China led the Xi'an market with sales of 13.61 billion yuan (see Table 3). Among them, the Greentown Haitang Sanzhang project located in the High-tech Zone contributed 5.47 billion yuan in sales to Greentown.

Real estate companies with sufficient inventory reserves are more likely to support future sales performanceIn popular cities such as Shanghai and Xi'an, national leading real estate companies and local state-owned enterprises focus on "accumulating grain" in the local area. From the perspective of the scale of early expansion, the list of China Index Academy shows that from January to July this year, China Merchants Shekou, China World Trade Real Estate, and China Construction Yipin were shortlisted in the top three of Shanghai real estate companies in terms of land acquisition amount, with a threshold of more than 4.7 billion yuan (see Table 4). China Railway Construction, Poly Developments, and Xi'an Urban Investment Real Estate were shortlisted in the top three of Xi'an's land acquisition amount list, with a threshold of more than 3.4 billion yuan (see Table 5).

The industry adjustment cycle is still continuing.Greenland China, which has its base in the Yangtze River Delta region, is very determined to invest heavily in Shanghai.In the second batch of centralized land supply in Shanghai last year, Greentown China successfully won three plots of land by spending 13.9 billion yuan. Recently, the land auction rules in Shanghai have returned to "the highest bidder wins", and Greentown China continues to increase its layout. In August this year, Greentown won the riverside plot in Xuhui District and the Jiangwan Town plot in Hongkou District in Shanghai with a total price of 4.8 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the floor price of 131,000 yuan/square meter for the riverside plot in Xuhui District set a new record for floor price in land auctions in China.

So far, Greentown has become the new "land king". Before this, according to data from China Index Academy, Greentown China acquired 22.8 billion yuan of land from January to July, ranking second in the industry; the total new value was 49.6 billion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry. Based on this calculation, Greentown, which has won the Shanghai "land king" per unit price, has become the real estate developer with the largest amount of land acquisition.

In Lu Wenxi's opinion,There is still room for policy support in the real estate market in core cities in the future.For example, some areas in Shanghai have relaxed their talent settlement policies, which will further drive the growth of housing demand. He added, "For the upcoming 'golden September and silver October', core cities will definitely see a seasonal rebound in transaction volume, but the price trends of new and second-hand houses are different. Generally speaking, the price of second-hand houses is still in the adjustment channel, while the price of new houses is relatively stable."

(This article was published in the Securities Market Weekly on August 24, with the original title "House prices in Shanghai and Xi'an lead the country, and China Overseas and Greentown benefit greatly." The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only for example analysis and are not investment advice.)