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The Ukrainian army often lacks artillery shells on the battlefield, while the Russian army on the other side does not. They have plenty of artillery shells. From the perspective of the Ukrainian army on the front line, they have never found any signs that the Russian army is short of artillery shells.

When it comes to artillery shells, Ukraine can only say one word: lack. The current Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a battle of artillery shells.

Compared with Russia, the military production capacity of the West is seriously backward. It is said that the number of artillery shells produced by Russia alone per unit time is three times the total production of artillery shells in the West. War is industrial power. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be called a "mirror". Not only Russia's shortcomings are exposed in this conflict, but also the West. What impressed them most is probably the seriously backward military production. In the past two years, the West has been discussing a question. The economic level of the West is far higher than that of Russia. Why is it seriously lagging behind Russia in military production capacity, and even the most basic problem of supplying artillery shells to the Ukrainian army cannot be solved? Let's discuss the poor defense industrial production capacity of the West.

1. The West is very rich, but it cannot produce enough artillery shells. The gap is too big compared with Russia.

The most impressive scene on the Ukrainian battlefield was artillery shells. Starting from the second phase of the Russian army's operations, the Russian army changed its tactics in Donbass and used traditional artillery to attack cities. In the past two years or so, the core of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been artillery shells. Even Biden had to admit this. He once publicly stated that "this is a war about artillery shells."

However, the demands for artillery shells on both sides of the battlefield are completely different. Russia has no shortage of artillery shells and has never complained about its shortage of artillery shells. Ukraine, which has received strong support from the West, has often been troubled by a shortage of artillery shells in the past two years or so. It can even be said that it is troubled by the shortage of artillery shells almost every day. It has become commonplace for Ukrainian senior officials, including Zelensky, to publicly call on the West for artillery shells. When Western media interviewed Ukrainian soldiers on the front line, they often heard them say that they were short of artillery shells.

Considering that Ukraine's combat weapons mainly come from the West, the dispute over artillery shells can also be said to be the difference in the production of artillery shells between Russia and the West. In fact, it is not surprising that Ukraine lacks artillery shells, because even if the entire West adds up the number of artillery shells produced, it is far from being able to compete with Russia.

In March this year, CNN made an "exclusive report" that the number of artillery shells produced by Russia is three times that of the United States and Europe.NATOThe assessment of Russian defense production and reports from Western and Russian media have led to an objective conclusion: Russia produces about 250,000 artillery shells per month, about 3 million per year. The United States and Europe can only produce about 1.2 million 155mm shells per year for Kiev.

The US military has set a target of producing 100,000 rounds of artillery shells per month by the end of 2025, but this number is less than half of Russia's monthly output of artillery shells. More importantly, no one is optimistic about the goal set by the US military. In their view, this seems out of reach.

Russia produces three times as much artillery shells as the entire West

A senior NATO official said: "We are now in a production war, and the final outcome of the battle on the battlefield depends on the military production of each side." Russia currently fires about 10,000 artillery shells a day, while Ukraine only fires 2,000 artillery shells a day. On some specific fronts, this ratio may be even larger.

As early as 2023, many Western media discovered the shortcomings of the US military industry through the Russia-Ukraine conflict: it could not produce enough weapons. In the future, if the United States needs to face a high-intensity overseas war, the US military production capacity may directly drag the US military into the water, because war is industrial power.

In March 2023, the Washington Post published an article: The United States is currently working to speed up the supply of weapons needed by Ukraine to assist it in winning the war with Russia. However, this conflict has exposed the problem of the United States' rapid expansion of many weapons production capabilities, which need to be provided not only for Ukraine, but also for the United States' own defense needs. Although the United States has the world's largest military budget of more than $800 billion a year and the most advanced defense industry, it has long been difficult to efficiently develop and mass-produce weapons that have enabled American forces to surpass their competitors technologically, but without production capacity. When traditional warfare returns to Europe and Washington is also considering the possibility of a great power war on its own, these challenges become more important.

In fact, the problem of slow US military production is not limited to the weapons and equipment provided to Ukraine, nor is it just a problem of insufficient ammunition production capacity, but also includes cutting-edge weapon systems. According to the assessment of defense expert Cancian of the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), at the current production rate of US military companies, it will take more than 10 years to replace the "Black Hawk" helicopter fleet, and almost 20 years to fill the advanced medium-range helicopter fleet.Air-to-air missilesInventory, while replacing the USaircraft carrierThe fleet will take at least 44 years.

PentagonAn analysis of the U.S. defense industry shows that in terms of military weapons production, the current U.S. can no longer match the U.S. during World War II, when American factories produced enough aircraft and weapons to drive the entire Allied forces to victory over the Axis powers. But now, the United States is seriously overwhelmed by just coping with a medium-sized conflict such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is worth noting that not only the US military industry is stuck in the quagmire, but the European problem is equally serious. Stoltenberg once warned that the waiting period for delivery of large-caliber weapons has increased by more than 3 times, which means that these orders will now take more than 2 years to deliver. Although Germany is making drastic plans to expand its national defense capabilities, the current domestic ammunition supply is only enough to support 2 days of combat. In a military exercise, the UK's ammunition inventory can only sustain combat for 8 days.

The West has money but no military production capacity, and cannot produce enough 155mm shells.

Russia currently uses as much artillery shells in Ukraine every day as Europe's total artillery production in a month. In a document sent to member states, Estonia said the EU urgently needs to increase its defense industry capabilities to help Ukraine's army continue to resist.

NATO members are seeking to increase production capacity and agree to improve ammunition stockpile guidelines to better plan for potential future conflicts. However, European countries, in particular, have been slow to start production lines, and companies have complained about a lack of contracts. Greg, a former Pentagon official, said: Western decision-making circles have ignored Russia's strategic advantages: geographical depth, almost unlimited natural resources, a high degree of social cohesion, and the military-industrial capacity to rapidly expand military power.

In order to increase the production of artillery shells and supply Ukraine's battlefield needs, Western countries are collectively increasing their own artillery shell production capacity. The Pentagon's requirement is to increase the production of 155mm artillery shells to 100,000 per month and 1.2 million per year by the end of 2025, which sounds pretty good, but many US media said: We have not seen the actual productivity yet, and if the United States really increases the production to this level by the end of 2025, Ukraine will most likely lose the conflict.

A US think tank once calculated that if everything goes according to plan, by the end of 2025, the United States and its NATO allies could produce nearly 2 million 155mm artillery shells per year. But now Russia has increased its total annual artillery shell production to 3 million rounds, and if Russia expands its production line, the number of shells may continue to grow in the future. Moreover, even if the West really produces 2 million rounds of artillery shells, they cannot be fully converted into battlefield artillery shells for Ukraine, because these countries cannot give all the artillery shells to Ukraine, they need to keep some for themselves, which is most obvious in the United States.

2. Why is the West’s artillery shell production capacity inferior to Russia’s?

The West has always been very puzzled by one thing: Russia's defense budget for 2023 is only $100 billion, and its GDP is $2 trillion. In comparison, the defense budget of the entire NATO group is $1.47 trillion, and its GDP is about $45 trillion. But Russia has completely surpassed the West in the production of ammunition, rockets and tanks. Why is there such a strange phenomenon?

The West is very curious about why their artillery shell production is so different from that of Russia

In the past, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and several think tanks in Washington have analyzed this issue. In summary, there are several main factors: First, there is a large difference in production time. According to the assessment of NATO officials: Russia is operating artillery factories in shifts "24x7", with shifts every 12 hours. Currently, about 3.5 million Russians work in defense factories, and Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran provided Russia with at least 300,000 artillery shells last year. Russia "has put everything they have into the game, and their war machine is running at full speed." Although Putin has not announced that the country's economy has entered a wartime system, under the "24x7" military production model, Russia has put military production into "wartime mode" ahead of schedule.

The picture in Western military factories is quite different. Workers go to get off work and leave on time, and there is no such thing as night shift. In order to save wages, military capitalists basically do not force workers to work overtime. If weekends are included, the entire West spends very little time on weapons production, at least compared to Russia.

Second, the changes in the military production system. The Pentagon once attributed the problem of declining military production capacity in part to post-Cold War integration, with military spending falling and military personnel reduced by one-third. In the absence of any expected conflicts between major countries, the US federal government ushered in a wave of large-scale military-enterprise mergers and acquisitions, which greatly reduced the size of military enterprises. Once 1,000 civilian defense industry jobs disappeared every day. In the 1990s, there were 51 major aviation and defense contractors in the United States, but now there are only 5. The number of aircraft manufacturers has dropped from 8 to 3, and 90% of missiles come from 3 manufacturers.

Industry experts say that often unpredictable government military demands and short-term contracts dictated by defense budget cycles further discourage private military companies from investing in additional capacity. Since there is no commercial market for products like surface-to-air missiles or precision bombs, companies with specialized production capabilities cannot rely on civilian demand to survive.

Officials say production lags also stem from the fact that military equipment is more complex today than it was during World War II, when Ford could produce one aircraft an hour. Today’s weapons often require large numbers of electronics and parts from dozens or hundreds of factories. Lockheed Martin’s Lightning fighter, for example, contains 300,000 parts from 1,700 suppliers.

The U.S. Army recently signed a $1.2 billion contract last year for Raytheon to build seven more units of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Defense System. These systems are being used in Ukraine to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks, but they will have to wait another two years before they can be used.

Not only that, the loss of traditional industrial technology is also a huge fault. Since reaching its peak in 1979, more than one-third of American manufacturing jobs have disappeared, more than 7 million jobs no longer exist. Jobs in the defense sector have also decreased by one-third.

Smith, general manager of General Dynamics' Pennsylvania region, said their Scranton plant, which builds 155mm artillery shells, remains an attractive company in part because wages are competitive, but finding the right workers for its factory is not easy in an economic environment where traditional manufacturing skills are in short supply, which remains a challenge.

Making 155mm shells is a complex process, and the West needs multiple suppliers to provide raw materials

Third, the issue of raw materials. War is not fought with money alone, you have to have raw materials, otherwise it is useless to have money and production lines. Ensuring the supply chain of key mineral resources is essential to maintaining any important military force. The challenge is that the United States identified 50 key minerals in 2022, but it relies on imports for 100% of 12 of them, and imports for another 31 mineral resources account for more than 50% of actual demand. The demand for mineral resources such as copper in war is huge. For example, the metal content of artillery shells varies depending on factors such as design, manufacturer ammunition and manufacturing process, but it contains at least about 0.5 kilograms of copper. For Russia's 11 million artillery shells in 2022, this is equivalent to 5,500 tons of copper. Or, the amount of copper required for the turbines of 1,170 wind turbines, which is about 10% of the number of wind turbines in the UK, and this is just the amount of artillery shells used in Russia.

In addition to copper, there are also nickel, rare earths and antimony. Russia is vast and rich in resources, so it rarely worries about the raw materials of artillery shells, but Europe is different. For example, Italy, a major industrial power in the European defense field, has always imported a variety of materials from Russia, such as aluminum, platinum, palladium or rhodium, but after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Italy had to find reliable alternative suppliers.

Fourth, the mentality of the West. The Quincy Institute, a think tank in the United States, has put forward such a theory: the United States and NATO allies are dealing with a war they want to win, while Russia is fighting a war it believes it must win, a war of survival. Therefore, for the Pentagon and American defense contractors, it is largely business as usual, with profits and revenues being the primary issue. Of course, some contracts are being expedited so that the funds can flow faster. However, in the absence of real defense reform, there is no reason to believe that defense contractors will shift production resources from the Lightning fighter to the 155mm artillery shell.

The United States and its NATO allies do not seem to be in a hurry to formulate a comprehensive new military industrial policy. Because they know that Putin will not launch an unprovoked attack on a NATO country. No matter what the final outcome of Ukraine is, NATO is still NATO and the United States is still the United States.

In addition, the US military has always been very insensitive to artillery shells. Since the 21st century, the core of the US military in the military field has been high technology, and these seem to have been verified to a certain extent on the battlefields in the past. They generally believe that traditional artillery is no longer the core of the battlefield. On May 21, 2021, just eight months before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Army requested permission to halve its annual spending on 155mm artillery shells.

The US military believes that Russia is fighting a conventional war that they would never fight

Although the current Russia-Ukraine conflict has verified the importance of artillery shell production, in the view of the US military, they will not fight this kind of traditional war, and will only fight a high-tech war like the Gulf War.