“Whoever loses the AI ​​war between China and the United States loses everything.”

Text/ Ba Jiuling (WeChat public account: Wu Xiaobo Channel)

Last weekend, a short video of "former Google CEO encouraging students to copy TikTok's business model" suddenly went viral.

Immediately afterwards, the full text of the speech by the protagonist "Eric Schmidt" at Stanford University in the video went viral on the Internet. Many titles contained eye-catching descriptions such as "deleted from the entire network", "letting go of oneself", and "internal sharing". Everything pointed to Schmidt making a "big mess" - leaking "high-level secrets" without knowing that the entire process was live-broadcasted, and he was suspected of having a close relationship with TikTok.

The most controversial, but also the most misunderstood

The speech video has been deleted from the Internet, and only the "backup" remains on the domestic Chinese network.

After watching the speech video, objectively speaking, Schmidt was not unaware that this was a public live broadcast, and he did not panic at all during the whole process. According to foreign media reports,The main reason why the speech was "deleted from the entire Internet" was that he criticized the employees of his former employer for not working hard enough and thus failing to compete.OpenAI。

Video screenshot source: Internet

What has caused the most controversy in China is his "TikTok plagiarism theory". In order to present it objectively, we have excerpted the original sentence and translated it sentence by sentence:

The government is trying to ban TikTok. If TikTok is banned, I suggest that each of you do this, tell your big language model that the next step is to make a copy of TikTok. Get all the user information, get all the music resources, and add my personal settings. Program this in the next 30 seconds. Then release it. If it doesn't go viral within an hour, try another way along the same lines. That's the order. Step by step.

Then, during the student question-and-answer session in the second half, Schmidt revealed the "burden" he had buried earlier. He said the following, which immediately caused laughter from the audience:

If you're an entrepreneur in Silicon Valley, which I hope you are, if this product takes off, then you'll need to hire a bunch of lawyers to clean up the mess, but if no one uses your product, then it doesn't matter that you stole all the content. Of course, don't say I said this.

These two statements are basically what are circulated on the Chinese Internet. Many video bloggers summarized it as "steal first and then deal with it", and the comment section angrily expressed that "this is the true nature of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and Americans."

This is obviously a lack of common sense. How can a company with tens of billions of dollars invested in its business model be easily copied in 30 seconds? The language model is just an auxiliary tool, but not Aladdin's magic lamp. Some business observers believe thatThis is a misunderstanding caused by cultural differences without context.The TikTok case was merely an attempt to add a touch of humor to the speech.

From the perspective of innovation, there is no "original sin" in business copying or plagiarism, which precisely reflects the spirit of Silicon Valley. Some people compare the United States to the East-West War, where the East constantly formulates rules to protect vested interests, while the innovation paradigm represented by Silicon Valley in the West constantly breaks the barriers of rules through venture capital and entrepreneurship.

On the other hand, the rise of China's Internet this time is due to "Copy to China". We can almost see the shadow of Silicon Valley in some Internet products. In recent years, Silicon Valley has also begun to "Copy from China".Therefore, business innovation itself is a process of continuous learning by stepping on stepping stones.

Originally, the story would have ended here, but if we combine Schmidt's experiences and remarks over the years, this speech actually revealed a lot of hidden information, especially about China.

April 23, 2024, Washington, D.C., USA

People hold signs supporting TikTok in front of the U.S. Capitol

How the US Elite Views the US-China AI Competition

Discussions involving China mainly revolve around the relationship between AI and the US-China geopolitical competition:

In your generation's lifetime, the US-China confrontation over intellectual hegemony will be the main struggle. Therefore, the US government basically banned the export of Nvidia chips to China, although they were reluctant to say that this was their original intention. We are about 10 years ahead in chip manufacturing technology, and we are about 10 years ahead in chips smaller than 5 nanometers.

He even hinted that powerless countries should "choose sides" between China and the United States:

In fact, this is the game of rich countries with huge capital, many skilled talents, and strong government support. Some countries, such as India, will become important players in this field, and others may need to find partners or join forces with other countries.

When students were asked about America’s allies in the area of ​​AI safety,Schmidt directly stated that "China has no chance and will never come back."

Schmidt can make such judgments and insights, in fact, there are traces to follow. The second CEO of Google, who does not have a strong "presence", last appeared in the domestic media when he published a new book "The Age of Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humanity" in 2023. The reason why I was so impressed was thatBecause Henry Kissinger was also listed as a co-author - this was his "final work" before his death in November.

With the endorsement of Kissinger, an international strategist, the topic of Sino-US AI competition inevitably appears in the book.

Schmidt probably also wrote a lot about this statement, but the wording is not very friendly to Chinese readers.

In the book, the United States is described as a leader in the field of AI, and its leading position is inseparable from top academic leadership, entrepreneurial ecosystem and government funding support. The AI ​​industry is non-profit and market-oriented in nature. China can become the biggest rival of the United States thanks to the scale of the domestic market and government supervision, which is exclusive in nature and prohibits the export of key technologies.

In May 2024, OpenAI released a new model GPT-4o

As I read on, I can sense a sense of hero versus villain.

TikTok is also mentioned in the book, but only in 500 words, without any positive description. First, it criticizes TikTok for its overly broad information restrictions, and secondly, it expresses concerns that the data of citizens of one country is controlled by another country, which has the potential to threaten national security. When the United States took measures to prevent user data from flowing to China, TikTok was described as "prohibiting the export of code that supports content recommendation algorithms" to ensure its competitiveness.

If you look back at Schmidt's interview with Bloomberg in early May, you will find that he has a very clear view on this "arms race." While affirming that the United States is two to three years ahead of China in the field of AI, he pointed out China's fourth shortcoming:

◎ The first is that due to US sanctions and regulations, China has been in trouble due to chip problems and supply shortages.

◎ The second is that there is less Chinese material for training large models, while English dominates the Internet, research papers and books.

◎ Third, due to deflation, tense international relations and other issues, China is facing a significant reduction in foreign investment and venture capital.

◎ Fourth, China is focusing on building profitable application companies rather than platforms, and still lags behind in basic research.

Although the four points of missing chips, insufficient training, shortage of funds and wrong path are debatable, they basically hit the nail on the head.From Schmidt's remarks, we can see that the American elite has a clear understanding of the industrial competition between China and the United States, and we can also see their vigilance and confrontation with China's AI field, which is filled with smoke and blood.

This Schmidt is really not a simple person.

An advocate of a "new cold war between China and the United States in technology"

However, it would be a mistake to view Schmidt simply as an entrepreneur or a tech tycoon.

From 2001 to 2010, Schmidt helped Google start commercialization as CEO and witnessed the rise and fall of the Chinese market. The year after Google withdrew from China, Schmidt stepped down in disgrace. After leaving, he invested in several artificial intelligence companies, became the chairman of the US Department of Defense Innovation Committee in 2016, and served as the chairman of the National Artificial Intelligence Security Committee for three consecutive years.

Eric Schmidt at the Google Big Tent conference in 2013

This position is specifically responsible for providing advice to the president and Congress on the development of artificial intelligence to fully meet national security and defense needs. It can be said that Schmidt has now become one of the top think tanks in the US government.

During Schmidt's tenure,The biggest thing he did was to actively advocate a "new technological Cold War between China and the United States."It is no exaggeration to say that in the field of science and technology, there is probably no one else except Schmidt who has been trying hard to exaggerate the "China threat theory."

According to various reports, Schmidt has repeatedly stressed the "national emergency" since 2016, claiming that China is currently5GThe United States is 10 times ahead of the United States in this field, and also pointed out that the United States lags behind China in 3D manufacturing, robots, face recognition, supercomputers, etc. These technologies will have an impact on the security of the United States, especially when applied to the field of war."The United States is losing its lead in the field of artificial intelligence," so he called on the United States to defeat China "at all costs" and said that "the United States needs to be at least two generations ahead of China in AI hardware."

Schmidt went to such great lengths for only one purpose: to lobby Congress to double the national research budget in the field of artificial intelligence every year, from $1.5 billion in 2021 to $32 billion in 2026 - ultimately delivering benefits to American technology companies, including those Schmidt invested in. For example, Schmidt and the CIA formed a secret foundation through which public funds could be directed to the six defense start-ups he invested in.

In addition to lobbying, Schmidt also participated in the presidential campaign very early. During the 2008 election, Schmidt was already a member of Obama's campaign team, paving the way for Obama through digital technology support and political donations. He was seen in the next two elections, and his influence is still there in the current Biden administration. A corporate executive with neither political nor military background successfully reached the core of power in Washington from the Department of Defense.

Therefore, Schmidt's true identity is actually the spokesperson for the "political and business hybrid" in the United States. Musk, for example, although he is the world's richest man, got involved in politics too late, so he is often manipulated by politicians.Schmidt vividly showed us the physical form of the American "interest groups" and "deep government".

What really “leaked”

What may worry us is that Schmidt is not simply seeking business interests by infiltrating the power class. As a person with many years of background in the Department of Defense, he has close ties with agencies related to US national security and even the military.

In fact, in this Stanford speech, Schmidt talked about the application of AI in future wars. He used the example of a $500 drone destroying a $5 million tank in the Russian-Ukrainian war to explain his decision to start a military technology company:

There are two main goals. First, apply AI to these robot wars in a complex and powerful way, and second, reduce the cost of robots... Existing military doctrine is based on tanks, artillery and mortars, and we can eliminate them... Large-scale land wars should be avoided.

Schmidt also bluntly expressed the view that national security is not homeland defense:

A key point is that the attacker always has the advantage, so as a national defense strategy, it is necessary to have a strong offensive mechanism... So I am a computer scientist, a businessman, and an arms dealer.

In a sense, whether it is a smokescreen or not, Schmidt basically represents the mainstream ideology of the US Department of Defense and the military: China and the United States are the only two countries that have the strength to go from the technological competition to future wars. If anyone loses this AI war, they lose everything.

This means that AI investment is bound to be a bottomless pit. We would rather invest in mistakes and waste, but we must invest at all costs.Only by creating more powerful AI productivity, more powerful unmanned "fleet" and drone "swarm" can we avoid the recurrence of history that "falls behind and gets beaten". In this process, we will inevitably encounter social ethical dilemmas and constant external challenges.

Perhaps this is what the former Google CEO accidentally "leaked" to us.

Author of this article | Xu Tao | responsibilityEditor | He Mengfei

Editor-in-Chief | He Mengfei | Image source |VCG