Beware of NATO, Russian Aerospace Forces "preserve strength" in Ukraine
2024-08-12
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The Su-57 fighter jet of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Image courtesy of the Royal Joint Services Institute
China Youth Daily and China Youth Network reporter Zhang Haotian
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for two and a half years. Unlike the ground battlefields, where artillery fire is raging, the air forces of both sides rarely clash. The Russian Aerospace Forces, which have superior forces in both size and technology, have always excluded most of their forces and some of the most advanced fighters from the battlefield. Some defense observers believe that this is because Russia is wary of Ukraine's air defense firepower and also wants to "preserve its strength." NATO is the Russian military's number one imaginary enemy.
Ukraine's skies are filled with danger
John Baum, an air combat expert at the Mitchell Institute in the United States who served in the US Air Force, recently told the US website Business Insider that Russia could have used more advanced fighter jets, but it seemed that it never intended to do so in Ukraine, but preferred to use air power in a "low-risk" way to keep them away from the opponent's air defense firepower.
Andrew Curtis, a retired British Air Force officer, pointed out that the logic behind this phenomenon is not difficult to understand: "Russia wants to retain reliable air power for future combat operations... Obviously, someone is thinking about issues other than Ukraine."
The Ukrainian Air Force is much smaller than Russia's, and the few modern fighters it has are all products of the Soviet era. It has suffered serious losses in the conflict since February 2022. According to statistics from the open source intelligence research organization "Oryx" at the beginning of this year, Ukraine has lost at least 135 fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft. However, because the Ukrainian air defense forces have maintained a certain combat effectiveness with the support of the West, Russia has failed to significantly change the situation by relying on air superiority.
Ukrainian officials occasionally release reports of downed Russian warplanes. In addition to ordinary fighters and attack aircraft, Ukraine also claimed to have shot down an A-50 early warning aircraft, which is a high-value target, at the beginning of this year. Peter Layton, a retired Australian Air Force officer, analyzed that the Russian Aerospace Forces suffered heavy losses in the first few months of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; since then, the Russian army has changed its tactics and has been firing more frequently at targets from safe Russian airspace. Since last year, Russia's losses have increased, one of the reasons being that the Russian army sent aircraft to drop guided bombs close to the front line.
British national security expert Michael Clarke said that if air units, especially bombers, are allowed to fly freely over Ukrainian airspace, Russia can use air power more effectively. The problem is that Russia has only a few strategic bombers. If it loses 8 or even 10 of them, it will cause a considerable combat power gap. In his view, if the Russian Aerospace Forces want to maintain the size of its forces to deal with other wars, then the environment in Ukraine is still too dangerous for it.
The Russian military is strictly preventing the leakage of advanced weapons
Business Insider pointed out that according to official reports, the Russian Aerospace Forces did not send all of its current aircraft to Ukraine. For example, there is no sufficient evidence that the Russian military has used the Su-57 stealth fighter in this conflict. The Su-57 is regarded as a fifth-generation fighter that is on par with the US F-22 and F-35. George Barros, a Russian analyst at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War, pointed out that Russia has many advanced aircraft, but for propaganda reasons, Russia may want to maintain their reputation before the next war breaks out. "If there is a mistake in Ukraine, it will be embarrassing."
Gustav Gressel, a defense policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes that Russia does not have enough Su-57 fighters, a total of about 20, and the operating costs are very high. He believes that since other models are capable of combat operations in Ukraine, Russia is not in a hurry to use the Su-57. Tim Robinson, a military aviation expert at the Royal Aeronautical Society of the United Kingdom, holds a similar view. He emphasized that the Su-57 stealth fighter "is a high-quality asset and an expensive asset" and Russia does not want to lose them easily. If these advanced models are shot down over Ukrainian-controlled territory, it will lead to the leakage of secrets and even bring "windfalls" to Ukraine's Western allies.
John Baum said that Russia's decision on which weapons can enter Ukraine and which cannot is a carefully calculated one, "They believe that there is no need to use more advanced weapons or increase the attack rate (of fighter jets) at the moment." Andrew Curtis said that from a strategic perspective, Russia is not planning to pursue a comprehensive military victory at the moment; Russia's goal is to weaken the West's interest in aiding Ukraine and gradually exhaust Ukraine's resources.
NATO remains the biggest variable
According to the U.S. Air Force Magazine, in April this year, Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, said that Russia had lost only 10% of its total aircraft in Ukraine, and the country's air force still had a lot of redundancy. It is worth noting that although the Russian Aerospace Forces is not as powerful as NATO, it has shown good adaptability in its limited participation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the popularity of glide-guided bombs is an example.
Michael Clark believes that if Russia had used all its strength in Ukraine, the situation would have been more favorable than it is now. However, as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become protracted, the possibility of a direct conflict between Russia and NATO has gradually increased, "at least higher than two years ago." Therefore, in order to avoid being passive in a confrontation with NATO, the Russian army is reluctant to use all its strength in Ukraine.
Since 2022, NATO member states have increased their defense spending and signed more defense agreements with each other. Some countries close to Russia have focused on strengthening border defense. "Business Insider" said that Western military experts believe that NATO's air force is larger and more advanced than Russia's, but the West should not underestimate the Russian Aerospace Force and should prepare for war in advance.
In Peter Layton's view, Russia will not ignore the NATO factor when making any decision. He said that Russia may believe that in an armed conflict with NATO, its air force should "persist long enough to resist the opponent's air strikes and protect its own ground forces." To ensure that such a "script" becomes a reality, Russia must preserve enough new fighters and elite pilots, rather than easily deploying them to Ukraine.
Layton said that Russia wants to maintain a strong air force. Once the Russian Aerospace Force is significantly weakened, it will damage Russia's bargaining chips with the West. He further analyzed that Russia's cautious attitude towards air combat will affect Ukraine's situation; as for NATO, even if this military group has been standing aside to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, its strength, especially its air combat capability, will hinder Russia from deploying all its troops to Ukraine.
(Source: China Youth Daily Client)
