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After U.S. President Biden announced his withdrawal from the campaign on July 21 and supported Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate, the original election pattern was broken and showed subtle changes - Harris has now won the support of a number of Democrats, and the amount of fundraising has reached 200 million U.S. dollars after breaking the record, and the gap in support rate with Trump has temporarily narrowed.

Facing the Democratic Party after the change of leadership, Trump, who suffered an assassination attempt, did not gain a big lead in the polls despite long-term media exposure. What worries Republicans even more is that the previously confirmed vice presidential candidate, Ohio Senator James David Vance (J.D. Vance), is likely to drag down the election: his "black history of gaffes" and embarrassing performance at the rally exposed his weakness in winning over voters. In view of Vance's weaknesses such as his inability to expand the base of voters, lack of political resume and speaking ability, Trump's allies (confidants) even doubted whether it was a wise move to choose Vance as his running mate.

In response to outside doubts, Trump and his campaign team said that the campaign combination of Trump and Vance will win the general election in November. Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, told The Hill in a statement: "Trump is very happy with the selection of Vance. They are the perfect team to take back the White House." When asked if his idea of ​​choosing Vance changed with Harris becoming the Democratic presidential candidate, Trump emphasized that "I would still make the same choice."

Vance was born in a low-income family in the Rust Belt. He worked his way up to become a well-known politician and has a strong appeal to the "MAGA (Make America Great Again)" camp. He is famous for his best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy" and was successfully elected as a senator in 2022 with the support of Trump. However, a CNN poll showed that Vance has become the least popular non-incumbent vice presidential candidate since 1980. A survey conducted by Punchbowl News, an American political news website, during the Republican National Convention showed that nearly 80% of staff and Republican leaders expressed disapproval of Trump's choice of Vance as his running mate. Most respondents said that Trump should choose Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.

Vance's remarks were criticized, and the Republicans were busy "putting out the fire"

Vance's early remarks and campaign performance have become the focus of attention since he was nominated as the vice presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention on July 17. In recent days, some of Vance's remarks on family and fertility have again been severely criticized, including by well-known actors Jennifer Aniston and Whoopi Goldberg.

In 2021, in an interview with then-Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Vance said: "Our country is actually ruled by 'a group of childless cat-loving ladies' who are miserable about their lives and the choices they have made, so they also want to make the rest of the country miserable." In the interview at the time, Vance also used Harris, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as examples. Harris has no biological children, but has a stepson and stepdaughter, while Buttigieg, a LGBT minority, adopted twins in 2021.

In order to calm the public anger, Vance responded in a show on the 26th of this month, saying that the remarks were intended to be "sarcasm", but the public opinion ignored its actual content. "I am very happy that the left-wing people attacked me for this matter, because I think these words have triggered an important discussion about why our society has become so seriously anti-family... My criticism is not directed at childless people, but at the anti-family and anti-child tendency of the Democratic Party." Vance said. Taylor Van Kirk, a spokesperson for Vance, said that Vance's remarks were "distorted" and that "the left-wing media has once again distorted the senator's remarks and fabricated a false narrative about the relevant position."

In an article published on the 27th, The Wall Street Journal launched a fierce attack on Vance's "cat-loving women" remarks: "Some politicians always make these 'witty remarks' in areas dominated by right-wing male voters." The editorial board of The Wall Street Journal wrote, "But these words cannot impress millions of female voters, many of whom are Republicans and will decide the outcome of the election." In a report, The New York Times pointed out that the owner of The Wall Street Journal, media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, had played a behind-the-scenes role in opposing Vance, and also used his media to support North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.

As public opinion continued to ferment, other media outlets successively dug up other controversial remarks made by Vance. Also in 2021, Vance emphasized in an interview with the podcast "The Charlie Kirk Show" that the government should charge higher taxes on people without children. "So when it comes to tax policy, we should tax 'bad things' instead of 'good things'," Vance said in the interview. "If you make $100,000 to $400,000 a year and have three children, your tax rate should be lower than those who make the same salary but have no children. It's that simple." Currently, the video websites YouTube and Rumble have removed the relevant programs, and the controversial single episodes cannot be listened to on other podcast platforms.

In response, Vance's spokesman William Martin told ABC that Vance's proposed tax policy is no different from the Child Tax Credit (CTC) plan proposed by the Democrats.

At the same time, Vance was once again pushed to the forefront due to his poor performance in the campaign. On July 21, local time, Vance held a campaign event in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio. When talking about the issue of voter identity, Vance said that "Democrats believe that everything is related to racism." "I drank a bottle of Mountain Dew yesterday and another bottle today. I'm sure they (Democrats) will also regard it as racism. But—it's good." Vance said with an awkward smile.

Diet Mountain Dew was created in Tennessee in the 1930s and was first sold in Virginia and Tennessee, both of which are located in the Appalachian Mountains. Because Diet Mountain Dew has a deep connection with the Appalachian Mountains, this drink has gradually become a cultural symbol of the poor white class. However, the live video shows that the audience did not respond enthusiastically to Vance's "humorous remarks" and seemed confused about the funny point of his remarks. The New Republic magazine commented on its website that Vance's jokes at the rally were obviously "not strong enough and just trying to take advantage of the cultural war that has caused confrontation." The report also said that although Vance's 40-minute speech attracted bursts of laughter, most of the laughter seemed to come from him.

Although Vance intentionally imitated Trump's sense of humor and ability to improvise, his performance did not seem to achieve similar results as Trump in terms of the appeal of his live speeches and the motivation of voters. The political news website POLITICO commented in an article: "Vance clumsily joked about the local hot spots in Middletown and then started complaining about the Democrats. The video looked like a poor imitation of Trump's rally."

Judging from his recent campaign performance, Vance's weakness is mainly that he is not good at communicating with voters and establishing close ties, and polls have also confirmed this view. Although Vance was elected as a senator with Trump's endorsement, his poll performance in Ohio is not as good as Trump in 2020. According to CNN, in a July survey of voters in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, Vance's approval rating was 28%, his disapproval rating was 44%, and his net approval rating was -16%. According to CNN election forecaster Harry Enten, Vance's average net approval rating after the Republican National Convention is currently -6%, which also makes him the first non-incumbent vice presidential candidate since 1980 to have a negative net approval rating during the campaign. Since 2000, the average approval rating of non-incumbent vice presidential candidates has reached 19%.

With so many doubts, what are the possibilities that Vance will be replaced?

The Democratic Party, which has experienced the change of leadership, has not forgotten to "add fuel to the flames" regarding the controversy caused by Vance in recent days. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the 28th that choosing Vance may be "one of the best things Trump has done for the Democratic Party."

"Vance seems to be even more erratic and even more extreme than Trump, and I bet Trump is sitting there scratching his head and thinking, 'Why did I choose this person?'" Schumer said on "Face the Nation" that including Vance on the list of vice presidential candidates was an "extremely poor choice" and suggested that Trump might consider changing his mind and choosing a new running mate in the coming days.

After Biden withdrew from the race and supported Harris, the Trump camp's prediction and strategy of the election pattern were basically disrupted, and the offensive and defensive momentum of the two parties is undergoing subtle changes. Some analysts believe that although Trump has previously avoided equating himself with the "2025 Project" that promotes the conservative agenda, Vance's remarks may make it difficult for Trump to distance himself from the plan. A senior Democrat who wished to remain anonymous once told the short news website Axios that compared with Harris, Vance's tough views on abortion and harsh remarks against women would alienate some undecided (swing) voters.

The Hill found in anonymous interviews that many Republicans, including moderates, Reaganites and senior Republicans in Congress, have doubts about Vance. These Republicans have expressed strong concerns about Vance's lack of governing experience and inability to expand his electoral base.

A Republican congressman said that Vance could not help Trump's campaign at all and could only "motivate" Trump's die-hard supporters. "He is the worst of all the choices, it's terrible. I even think he is the least likely candidate."

"He's more of a populist and doesn't help Trump's campaign at all. He's inspiring the very people who love Trump. If you ask Republicans on Capitol Hill, nine out of 10 will tell you that Vance is the wrong choice," the second Republican congressman interviewed told The Hill.

Since the two parties have separate regulations on matters such as replacing presidential or vice presidential candidates, technically speaking, it is possible that Vance will be replaced. The Republican National Committee explains in its regulations how to deal with the situation of a vice presidential candidate vacancy caused by "death, refusal to run, or other reasons", including reconvening the national convention or having some members of the Republican National Committee vote to decide the successor. In addition, there have been cases in history where vice presidential candidates have been replaced before the election. In 1972, then-Democratic Senator Thomas Eagleton was disqualified as a vice presidential candidate after he was exposed to depression. Mitchell Brown, a professor of political science at Auburn University, analyzed to Newsweek that each state has a clear deadline for submitting ballots, and as long as the Republican Party selects a new vice presidential candidate before the deadline, Vance is likely to be replaced.

Some analysts also believe that the move to replace the running mate after the convention may have an adverse impact on the election. Kenneth Mayer, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Business Insider that Republican rules only apply to situations where Vance voluntarily withdraws from the general election, and there has never been a precedent in history of forcibly depriving a vice presidential candidate of his qualifications after the party's national convention. He also said that replacing Vance would have a "very destructive" impact on Trump's campaign, both from an organizational and logistical perspective and from a political perspective.