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(Original title: Will Biden become bolder after withdrawing from the election?)

A dramatic scene has once again appeared in American politics - the current President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election on the 21st, and expressed support for nominating Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. This is the first time since 1968 that a US president has withdrawn from the re-election campaign.

Can Harris successfully obtain the party nomination and become Trump's official opponent? Who will she choose as her running mate? How will she deal with the powerful Trump-Vance combination? What are the underlying reasons for the frequent occurrence of rare events in the US election?

Lü Xiang, an expert on American issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that Biden may take bolder actions and promote policies according to his own ideas after he is free from the burden of campaigning. In this case, it is worth paying attention to whether he will take more radical measures in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to make it difficult for the next government to reverse the situation, thereby making the situation in Europe more severe.

Wei Zongyou, a professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said that a series of recent emergencies in the United States reflect that its domestic politics is in a profound adjustment process. Trump is gradually turning the Republican Party into a "Trump version of the Republican Party." There is also a rise of radicals within the Democratic Party. The left represented by AOC is more radical and liberal on social and cultural issues. There is almost no room for dialogue between the two parties, and political polarization has significantly intensified.

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Democrats to consider elections for both the House and Senate

Governor: Not long ago, Biden and his team repeatedly made a strong statement that they would "never withdraw from the election". Why did they suddenly decide to withdraw from the election? Some people believe that the Democratic Party is pressuring Biden to withdraw from the election because they believe that he will lose to Trump and are worried that his performance will drag down the elections of the Senate and the House of Representatives, so they want to stop the loss in time. What do you think of these analyses?

Lu Xiang:This is not surprising. CNN, a media outlet with close ties to the Democratic Party, has reported that the Democratic Party will decide whether Biden will withdraw from the race last weekend. For the Democratic Party, a day later decision means an additional sunk cost.

Biden and his team had previously planned not to withdraw from the election because the Democratic Party had already invested too much in Biden and it would not be cost-effective to switch to someone else. But now the situation is forced, because Biden's physical condition and cognitive ability have made even the most supportive people in the party feel that it is difficult to continue, so this seemingly sudden decision came.

I agree with the judgment of "stop loss in time". At first, everyone may think that this is just a problem of presidential election, but Biden's failure in the debate is like the "emperor's new clothes" being exposed, which makes people see his shortcomings clearly. So the New York Times immediately published an editorial to persuade him to withdraw from the election. This kind of editorial form of persuading to withdraw is rare, and then pro-Democratic media such as the Washington Post also used euphemistic means to let him make a decision as soon as possible.

Anyone who has been following the polls for the US presidential election knows that Biden's approval rating has fallen across the board in swing states and key states since the end of last year. Democrats are now more concerned about the elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, where every member of Congress is seeking re-election, and they are worried about being dragged down by Biden's performance.

In this situation, the Democratic Party is not only considering Biden's personal election issues. Although it is difficult to reverse the decline even if a new person is replaced, most Democrats believe that they should strive to win as many seats as possible in the parliamentary elections.

If Biden continues to run, there will be too much uncertainty in the future, which may bring greater losses. Therefore, the core members of the Democratic Party no longer dare to support him. In the end, former House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer and other senior Democratic leaders played a key role in persuasion.

This is a photo of US President Biden (second from left) and Vice President Harris (second from right) taken at the White House in Washington, the United States on July 4. Photo/Xinhua News Agency

Harris may not be willing to take over

Governor: Harris seems to have the support of most people in the Democratic Party, except former President Obama and others. Given the urgent situation, can she successfully win the nomination at the Democratic Party Convention next month? What challenges may she face within the Democratic Party?

Wei Zongyou:I think Harris has a very good chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

Although Obama, Schumer, and Democratic House Minority Leader Jeffries have not yet publicly expressed their support for Harris, from the current situation, Harris has already received President Biden's endorsement. At the same time, she has also won the support of some black caucuses in Congress, including the public statement of influential black leader Clyburn in the House of Representatives. Some heavyweight governors, such as California Governor Newsom and Michigan Governor Whitman, as well as governors of other key swing states, have also publicly supported Harris.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party is running out of time. With less than a month until the Democratic National Convention on August 19, if they exclude Harris and appoint someone else, no one has publicly stepped forward to take on this role. Even if someone has this intention, their national popularity may not be as good as Harris's, and it will be difficult to achieve procedural legitimacy.

Obama, Schumer and others have not made their position known because, on the one hand, they may have some concerns about Harris's ability; on the other hand, they may be worried that if they designate a successor without open discussion within the Democratic Party, Trump and the Republicans will seize the opportunity to accuse the Democratic Party of violating democratic principles and engaging in private transactions. This may cause dissatisfaction within and outside the Democratic Party.

Therefore, they hope to have a period of time to allow different opinions to be expressed, so that Harris can eventually become the Democratic presidential candidate. This will not only reflect the legitimacy of the democratic process, but also better convince the public.

This is a file photo of Harris attending an event at the White House in Washington, the United States (taken on April 11, 2022) Photo/Xinhua News Agency

Lu Xiang:In early August, the Democratic Party must decide on the presidential candidate nomination. According to the rules of some states, such as Ohio, the nominees of each party must be locked before August 9, otherwise the printed ballots will not have the Democratic candidate. In early August, they must vote online. I think Obama, Schumer and others may express their support for Harris soon, not to designate a successor, but to express support.

The vote requires the participation of 3,949 party delegates, and I don't expect this vote to be a problem. Since Biden has decided to withdraw from the race and recommend Harris, there shouldn't be too many disagreements among these party delegates, and Harris should be able to get more than half of the votes smoothly.

In addition, there are not many people willing to "take over" now. Well-known governors such as Newsom of California, Whitman of Michigan, and Shapiro of Pennsylvania, if they have ambitions, are also focused on 2028 rather than 2024. There are only three months left before the election this year, and they do not have enough time to gain national influence. If a person wants to run for president, he must first let the people of the country know him. If people don't know you, how can they elect you? These people will not come to be "takers".

In fact, in the current situation that is not favorable to the Democratic Party, Harris is also a "savior" in a sense, and she may not be very willing to take this responsibility. But for the entire Democratic Party at this time, Harris is the best choice, and the current situation forces her to reach this position.

Harris can play the Trump card

Governor: According to polls, many voters believe that Harris is not qualified for the presidency, and many people say they "don't know much" about her. Why did Biden and a considerable number of Democrats still choose to nominate her? What are Harris' own advantages? What is her top priority in order to win the election?

Wei Zongyou:Harris's advantages can be summarized in several points: First, compared with Biden, she has an age advantage. Harris is less than 60 years old, while Trump is already in his 70s. Harris's age advantage is obvious, and Trump can no longer use age as an excuse to attack Democratic candidates.

Secondly, Harris is a woman. Trump is a big mouth and speaks without restraint, but he may need to be more cautious when it comes to female competitors, and he cannot give them all kinds of nicknames as recklessly as he did to Biden.

Third, Harris is a minority. She is a mixed race of black and Indian, which gives her a certain advantage among minority voters. Biden's poll numbers among young people, women, and ethnic minorities (especially Hispanics, blacks, and Arabs) have continued to decline this year, and Harris's identity can reverse this disadvantage to a certain extent and play a role in stopping losses.

In addition, Harris has served as a prosecutor. During her time as a senator, she launched a series of soul-searching questions on Trump's Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh, which refreshed the American people and demonstrated her eloquence. These can be seen as Harris's advantages, especially compared to Biden.

Harris' top priority is to win the trust and support of the party, unite the Democratic Party, and prepare for the upcoming general election. She needs to build her own campaign team and use the campaign funds transferred from Biden to officially enter the general election mode.

Second, Harris needs to come up with a loud and attractive campaign slogan. Trump's "MAGA" (Make America Great Again) was very successful, while Biden's "Build Back Better" seemed bland. As a new generation of politician, Harris needs to come up with an attractive campaign slogan that is different from Biden's.

Thirdly, if Harris is determined to be the presidential candidate, she needs to choose a suitable running mate. The choice of running mate is crucial for her, especially in key swing states, where she may be able to turn the tide through the influence of the running mate.

For Harris, her campaign strategy must avoid focusing on herself, but rather let voters focus on Trump himself. The Democratic Party cannot turn this year's election into a referendum on Biden's four years in office. Harris should do the opposite and focus on Trump's personal problems.

Specifically, she can emphasize Trump's character issues, pointing out that he has moral flaws and white supremacy, is arrogant, and treats women and minorities disrespectfully; emphasize that Trump does not recognize the results of the election, undermines the U.S. electoral system, and poses a threat to the rule of law in the United States; criticize Trump's tax cut policy for only serving the rich and large companies, exacerbating the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States; accuse Trump of going it alone in foreign policy, ignoring and not uniting allies, tarnishing the United States' international image and damaging relations with its allies.

On July 15, in Milwaukee, the United States, Trump (front left) and Vance attended the Republican National Convention. Photo/Xinhua News Agency

The United States is in the midst of profound adjustments and changes

Governor: In the past few weeks, the US election has experienced a series of dramatic scenes, from Biden's poor performance in the first debate, to Trump's assassination, to Trump's introduction of Vance as his running mate, and now Biden's withdrawal from the election under pressure. What are the underlying reasons for the frequent occurrence of rare events? What impact will it have on the mentality of the American people?

Wei Zongyou:In fact, a series of unexpected events reflect that American domestic politics is in a profound process of adjustment, and both parties are undergoing changes and adjustments.

Fundamentally, Trump is gradually turning the Republican Party into a MAGA party, or the Trump version of the Republican Party. This party tends to be neo-isolationist in foreign policy and exhibits serious populism and trade protectionism on trade issues, which is contrary to the traditional Republican Party's emphasis on free trade. At the same time, Trump's policies have a strong tendency towards unilateralism and isolationism, which is in contrast to the internationalist stance of the Republican Party in the past.

There is also a rise of radicals within the Democratic Party. The left, represented by AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), is more radical and liberal on social and cultural issues. It can be said that the Democratic Party is increasingly turning left, while the Republican Party is increasingly turning right. This has led to almost no room for dialogue between the two parties. The confrontation between the two parties has even reached the point of being incompatible, and political intensification has significantly intensified.

In addition, the differences between the two parties on issues such as the economy, gun control, border control, and taxation reflect the high degree of division in American society. On cultural issues, the left and the right are clearly in opposition; economically, the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen. The wealthy and the general public have very different views on issues such as the role of government, taxation, social security and medical insurance, free trade and trade protectionism.

In short, the United States is currently in the process of profound adjustment and change, and there are serious racial and social problems in society. These problems have accumulated for a long time and cannot be solved overnight. The differences in the positions of the two parties on major domestic and international issues will only increase this division, and the problems caused by them will recur in the future.

After withdrawing from the election, will Biden become bolder?

Governor: How will Biden spend the last few months of his presidency and what kind of political legacy will he leave behind? Without the pressure of re-election, will he change his course on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict?

Lu Xiang:After Biden is freed from the burden of campaigning, he may take bolder actions to advance policies according to his own ideas. In this case, whether Biden will take more radical measures in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to make it difficult for the next government to reverse the situation, thereby making the situation in Europe more serious, is a trend worth paying attention to.

The Russia-Ukraine issue was a major focus in this year's US election. During Trump's administration, the Democratic Party impeached him for "Russiagate", and Trump did not hide his relationship with Russia. His most trusted journalist, Tucker Carlson of Fox News, visited Putin, and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban visited Russia before Trump met with him at the NATO summit in the United States. Trump's relationship with Russia, and how this relationship manifested during his campaign, are worthy of attention.

Therefore, we need to carefully observe whether Biden will take some extreme measures to escalate the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, solidify the war situation, and put Europe in a greater crisis. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its impact on Europe will be the focus of our close attention.

This is a photo of US President Biden taken at the White House in Washington, the United States on May 9/Xinhua News Agency

Wei Zongyou:There is not much time left for Biden, and there is little room for him to make any domestic policy moves in the next few months. However, he may still make some achievements in the field of diplomacy. For example, on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Biden may continue to increase military aid to Ukraine and fully support relevant policies. However, these measures may hardly become his foreign policy legacy, because they cannot solve the fundamental problems and may exacerbate conflicts and contradictions.

If Biden hopes to leave a diplomatic legacy, Sino-US relations may be a potential area. He can take some measures to improve Sino-US relations, such as considering canceling some of the unreasonable tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on China, thereby creating some distance from Trump's China policy. Using the next period of time to return Sino-US relations to a healthy and stable track is a foreign policy legacy that Biden can pursue.