The siege of Euroscepticism: a myth, two deep concerns
2024-07-23
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On July 16, Metsoula was re-elected as President of the European Parliament. On July 18, Yael Brown-Pivet was re-elected as President of the French National Assembly. On the same day, von der Leyen was re-elected as President of the European Commission.The re-election of three female leaders makes European politics seem “calm”. In fact, the strong wind has already “invaded the valley and raged in the mouth of the earth bag”, so how can it be easily stopped in the grass?Since June, the three major elections, the European Parliament election, the British general election and the French parliamentary election, have exposed the polarization of European society and the fragmentation and extremism of politics. The ruling parties have generally suffered setbacks, the people are indifferent and helpless to traditional politicians and political parties, the influence of "Eurosceptic" political forces has risen sharply, and the uncertainty of Europe's future is unprecedented."Rebellion after disillusionment"The three elections were different and had very different results. For example, the British general election produced a stable majority government, while France produced a so-called hung parliament, that is, no party or coalition of parties won an absolute majority.But the commonality is also very prominent, that is, the ruling parties are rebelled against by the voters, and dissatisfaction and even anger are prevalent in European society.First, the trend of political fragmentation in Europe is accelerating.Over the past 20 years, an obvious feature of European politics has been political fragmentation. The big parties are not big, the small parties are not small, more parties have entered parliament, and three, four, or even five, six or more parties can form a ruling coalition.In the European Parliament elections, in the past, the center-right People's Party and the center-left Socialist Party alone were able to win a stable majority of seats. However, this time, the People's Party, the Socialist Party and the European Renewal Group only barely won a majority of seats.In the French parliamentary elections, the seats were even more dispersed than in 2022. In the British parliamentary elections, the Labour Party won 412 seats in the 650 seats in the House of Commons, which seemed one-sided, but in fact it benefited from the so-called winner-takes-all electoral system. The Labour Party only won 34% of the votes, which means that British society is also very divided and politics is highly fragmented.Second, the trend of political extremism in Europe is accelerating and intensifying.Looking at European Parliament elections over the past few decades,Despite occasional ups and downs, the vote share of so-called extreme parties that are excluded from mainstream politics, especially far-right populist parties, has been growing steadily and rapidly.In the 2019 European Parliament elections, far-right parties won about one-fifth of the seats, but this time they have won a quarter of the seats.In France,Despite facing competition from almost all other parties, the far-right National Rally became the largest political party in France in this European Parliament election. The number of seats it won in the National Assembly increased from only 2 in 2012 to 89 in 2022, and then to 143 in this election.in Germany,The far-right Alternative for Germany party, which was only founded in 2013, has quickly become a political force that cannot be ignored. This time, the number of seats it won in the European Parliament exceeded that of the three ruling parties, making it the second largest party in Germany after the Christian Democratic Union.in Italy,The ruling far-right party Brothers of Italy won again in the European Parliament elections.Third, the trend of “gamification” in European politics is accelerating and strengthening.The failure of European politics is not a new phenomenon. Over the past few decades, no matter whether it is changing parties or changing people, it has not been able to solve the many economic and social problems that concern the European people. The people's sense of helplessness and disillusionment with politics and elections, as well as their distrust of traditional political parties and politicians, are all increasing.European countries themselves also believe thatThe European Parliament election is a "protest vote", that is, the people use the European Parliament election held every five years to vent their dissatisfaction with their country's ruling party and politicians.However, the problems of the representativeness of public opinion and the legitimacy of the exercise of power of the European Parliament formed in this way will only become more prominent.The original intention of the French Fifth Republic was to ensure a strong president and government, but a majority government failed to emerge in 2022. The National Assembly elections have exacerbated the instability and uncertainty of the government, as if it is returning to the chaotic state of the Fourth Republic.The British Labour Party was able to win a majority of seats with just 34% of the votes, which does not reflect the majority public opinion at all and will only further increase people's disgust and disillusionment with politics.Long-standing problemDilemmaBehind the change in public opinion is the combined effect of a series of long-standing and difficult problems in Europe.One is the economic downturn.The 20 years since the 21st century can be described as the lost 20 years for Europe. The European economy has been hit by multiple crises and its average growth rate is less than half of that of the United States.The total economic output of some countries, such as Greece and Italy, has not yet recovered to the level before the global financial crisis broke out in 2008.The outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has caused an unprecedented impact on the European economy, including inflation and cost of living crises. In 2023, the eurozone, the core of the European economy, will only grow by 0.5%, 11 EU member states will fall into negative growth, and the largest economy, Germany, will decline by 0.3%; in 2024, the eurozone is expected to grow only slightly by 0.8%, and this may still be a relatively optimistic estimate.The UK's economic development has stagnated since Brexit, and it will fall into recession in 2023 and will only grow slightly by 0.7% in 2024. 71% of the people believe that the economic situation has worsened after Brexit.In addition, the fiscal deficits and public debts of countries such as Britain and France are growing rapidly, making it difficult to be optimistic about future economic development.The second is social differentiation.Overall, social divisions in Europe continue to develop, especially the growing antagonism between the elites and the general public.Europe's so-called elites, regardless of left or right, generally have the same views on geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as climate change, values, etc. They abide by political correctness, have obvious convergence, suppress different opinions, and make accusations at every turn, dominating the narrative and discourse power inside and outside Europe.The legitimate demands and different opinions of ordinary people are sometimes ignored or even suppressed.The cost of living crisis, refugee issues, energy issues and Ukrainian agricultural product issues brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have seriously impacted the lives of the middle and lower classes in Europe, but this is taken for granted by the elite and is a price that must be paid.It is against this background that farmers' protests have taken place across Europe since 2024. Not only in agriculture, but also in other industries.More and more European people are dissatisfied with their country's political system and politicians. For example, a considerable number of French people believe that President Macron is the "rich president."Some people blame the EU for the increase in refugees and illegal immigrants. As a result, far-right parties that advocate tough policies and the recovery of national sovereignty are gaining more and more support.Due to its inability to effectively respond to public concerns, the EU is increasingly seen as a bureaucratic organization that is aloof and out of touch with the people; at the same time, member states are restricted in their actions because they have handed over part of their power to the EU, and are unable to respond to public concerns in a timely and effective manner.The essence of European integration is to gradually reduce national sovereignty while gradually building European sovereignty. In this process, the contradiction between European sovereignty and national sovereignty continues to accumulate. This is a structural problem with European characteristics, which is becoming increasingly acute and a dilemma.In the decades since the war, the EU and European integration have encountered crises many times, but they have ultimately been able to overcome them and move forward. This is the so-called "crisis-driven theory."However, unlike in the past, the problems and crises Europe is facing now are not single, but comprehensive and comprehensive, with economic, social, geopolitical and security issues intertwined, making them more complex and difficult to resolve. Moreover, Europe is currently in a more disadvantageous position in the world, and its ability to respond to and resolve complex issues has declined.——It will be more difficult for Europe to advance strategic autonomy.Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Europe has become increasingly dependent on the United States in the areas of economy, finance, energy, and security, far more than during the Cold War.Europe has seen the "vassalization" trend that President Macron is worried about, that is, as a dependent of the United States, it has to serve the interests of the United States more even if it harms its own interests in many cases.Europe's security, energy, economic and financial policies are completely controlled by the United States, making it difficult to develop independently. Society is more divided and the external environment is more severe.——It will be more difficult for Europe to promote integration and structural reforms.Integration is the most important source of Europe's strength, but integration is like riding a bicycle: if you don't move forward, you will run into problems.Since the Lisbon Treaty came into effect in 2009, the EU has only been patching up the treaty for many years and has failed to amend the treaty to solve a series of structural problems in integration. On the contrary, problems such as North-South conflicts, East-West conflicts, and differences between Germany and France continue to accumulate.With the continued development of political fragmentation and extremism, the French and German governments have become weaker and the prospects for future integration are bleak.——It is more difficult for Europe to implement rational and pragmatic domestic and foreign policies.In today's Europe, pan-politicization and pan-securitization continue to ferment, greatly compressing the space for rational thinking and pragmatic policies. Political correctness is becoming an increasingly difficult taboo. Conservatism, introversion and xenophobia are becoming a trend, and the trend of fortressization is becoming increasingly obvious. The EU's past prosperity and influence came from open and inclusive development.It can be said,The current economic difficulties of the EU are largely related to the EU’s pan-politicization and pan-security thinking.The lack of rationality, pragmatism and inclusiveness will only further aggravate Europe's economic difficulties and lead to more social and political problems, making Europe less safe and forming a vicious cycle.As the city is surrounded by "Euroscepticism", will the flowers fall and the water flow?
At the crossroads of history, the choice Europe makes is of great significance to itself and the world. There is no doubt that an independent, open, inclusive, rational and pragmatic development path will give Europe a better future, which is beneficial to Europe and the world.
(Vice President and Researcher of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)Editor/It's Yuan, not Yun, ZiyanPhoto/Xinhua News Agency
