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On July 21, local time, US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election. After nearly a month of tenaciously fighting against the high calls for his withdrawal, the 80-year-old man finally decided to take this step and walk away in style.This is an unexpected but reasonable result.——In the past month, many analysts have believed that the probability of Biden actually withdrawing from the election is low. After all, changing generals at the last minute is a taboo in military strategy. His sudden withdrawal in less than four months will be catastrophic for the Democratic Party.But Biden was ultimately unable to withstand the pressure from his Republican opponents, the Democratic Party, various donors, and strong public opinion. Coupled with the unexpected bullet not long ago, it was as if God was letting him go.

Biden released a letter on social media that day, saying that he had intended to seek re-election, but "for the best interests of the Democratic Party and the United States," he decided to withdraw from the presidential race and focus on completing his presidential duties for the rest of his term. After announcing his withdrawal, Biden said he would fully support and endorse Vice President Harris for the Democratic presidential nomination. Harris then responded by saying, "I will do everything I can to defeat Trump."At this point, some people say that the US election has really ended early, but others say that perhaps the next surprise will come later.

Changing generals before a battle is a big taboo in military strategy

In fact, Biden is not the first person in American history to "abandon the election at the last minute."Since the end of World War II, two Democratic presidents have also decided not to run in election years while in office - Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, who decided to withdraw in March 1952 and March 1968, respectively.(Note: The general elections were held in November of the same year)In both cases, the Democrats who subsequently won the nomination—Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson II and Vice President Hubert Humphrey—They also lost to the Republican Party in the general election that year.Stevenson lost to Dwight Eisenhower, and Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon.

At that time, the direct reason for Truman and Johnson's withdrawal was that they were dragged down by the war.For Truman, it was the Korean War; for Johnson, it was the Vietnam War.In 1952, Truman's approval rating fell to a historic low as the U.S. military was involved in the Korean War. At the same time, the Democratic Party was involved in a government corruption scandal, which aroused people's dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party for being in power for too long.(Note: Roosevelt and Truman were in office for a total of 20 years)On the other hand, Eisenhower was a revered hero during World War II, which was a plus for the Republican candidate at a time when the United States was resentful of being mired in war.

▲ Eisenhower (center) is believed to have made a great contribution to his later presidential victory due to his military status during World War II

Compared with Truman, Johnson's situation is somewhat similar to Biden's today. First, Johnson's demise was due to dissatisfaction with his handling of the Vietnam War.At the time, the chaotic progress of the Vietnam War fell on Johnson's shoulders as Kennedy's "legacy". After Johnson entered the White House, he had no choice but to inherit this mess. Johnson was initially reluctant to deviate from Kennedy's approach to the conflict, but then chose to push the war to a higher level. In a meeting with senior civilian advisers on Vietnam, Johnson told them to forget Kennedy's emphasis on social, economic and political reforms and make victory in the military conflict the top priority of the new administration. However, this failed to force Hanoi to change or stabilize the political situation in Saigon. It was not until 1968 that the Vietnam War dealt a fatal blow to Johnson, when North Vietnam launched a surprise attack on South Vietnamese and American forces.

Today, Biden is also deeply dragged down by external wars.In August 2021, the U.S. armed forces officially completed their withdrawal from Afghanistan, marking the end of a 20-year war that began in 2001. Although this inevitable result was caused by long-term factors caused by multiple governments, this embarrassing result ultimately occurred during Biden's term, and he was inevitably accused of shame. Subsequently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Kazakhstan-Israel conflict broke out in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The Biden administration's response has now become a "target" in the eyes of Trump and the Republicans, and has also been criticized by the international community.

▲ Former President Harry Truman, left, and then-U.S. Senator Lyndon Johnson of Texas attend the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1956.

The second is competition from fellow Democrats.In 1968, the Vietnam War severely divided the Democratic Party, leading to the eventual third-party candidacy of Alabama segregationist George Wallace, who attracted the support of many Southern Democrats.Biden’s withdrawal today is also largely attributed to the successful “forcing the abdication” and defection within the Democratic Party.Since the presidential debate, public opinion calling for Biden to withdraw from the election has been instigated by Trump and his campaign team on the one hand, and also fanned by within the Democratic Party on the other.

According to people close to Biden, Biden himself believes that the recent media opinions are orchestrated by someone to put pressure on him and force him to step down. He believes that former House Speaker Pelosi is the main instigator, but he is now suspicious of former running mate and close friend former President Obama, who supported him publicly not long ago, and believes that he is behind it.The Obama team has not supported Biden in recent times, so not making a statement at this juncture would be seen as opposition.

In addition, like Biden, Johnson's health condition affects his election prospects.(Note: Johnson had suffered heart attacks before, one of which was in 1955, when he was only 47 years old, very young)The difference is that health issues are only a minor aspect for Johnson, while for Biden, although physical condition is not the main reason for his withdrawal, it has become an important part of Trump's attack on him, especially after the presidential debate.

Is Trump sure to win this time?

Although we can never finish our words until the last moment,But Biden's withdrawal and Harris' replacement(Note: As of the time of writing, Harris has not yet secured the Democratic candidate seat, and the party is still in the process of discussing and selecting the final candidate)It does mean that Trump has a greater chance of winning and his strong momentum will be more difficult to match.Currently, party chairmen in most Democratic states have expressed their support for Harris. From the perspective of campaign financial legitimacy, Harris also seems to be the most suitable candidate.

Saurav Ghosh, director of federal campaign finance reform at the Campaign Legal Center, told Reuters:From a campaign finance perspective, the easiest option would be to nominate Vice President Harris.Ghosh said,"As long as Harris remains in the race, she will automatically have access to the campaign's shared funds, regardless of whether either party formally accepts the nomination, because both names appear on the same campaign registration documents." And if Biden withdraws from the race now, Harris will be able to take over the $95.9 million Biden has on hand.

However, this statement seems to be disputed. Charles Spies, a Republican campaign finance law expert, pointed out in an opinion article in the Wall Street Journal that as long as Harris is still on the list of candidates, Biden needs to formally accept the Democratic presidential candidate nomination before transferring the existing funds of the campaign to her, but if he does not accept the nomination, Biden will be subject to the provisions of the Federal Election Campaign Act regarding "excess campaign funds".That means you can no longer donate more than $2,000 to any other candidate, including Harris.

While there is controversy over the specific details of the money transfer between Biden and Harris, it is certain that things will become more complicated if the new Democratic candidate slate does not include either of them.At that time, the $2,000 limit(Note: This is the amount of money transferred between federal campaign committees each election cycle)The Biden campaign cannot legally donate all of its campaign funds to the new candidate. Instead, it "must offer to return the funds to donors, who can then donate to the new candidate."

Harris also has natural and other acquired advantages.She has the natural labels of African American, Asian American and female, and her support rate among black and Hispanic voters is higher than Biden. Harris is 59 years old and energetic. Not only will she get rid of the burden that Biden's age and health problems bring to the Democratic Party, she is also nearly 20 years younger than Trump.On certain governing issues, she can also try to outline a better blueprint than "Trump's second term."As The Washington Post cited, Harris can call on the public to elect a leader who maintains a strong democratic alliance rather than a leader who "succumbs to tyranny" and to embrace a society that protects abortion rights and the rights of sexual minorities rather than incorporating Christianity and male-dominated family views into government policies. In addition, in a previous "hypothetical" poll, when asked if a replacement for Biden was elected to compete with Trump, Harris was also considered to perform better than Biden.

But it is worth noting that the survey was launched shortly after the presidential debate on June 27, when public sentiment was at its peak of confusion and instability, so it can be said that the survey has limited reference value. In any case, Harris's actual support rate is relatively low.According to the latest Five Thirty Eight poll, Harris's approval rating is only 38.6%, far behind Trump. She also has many other stains, such as her messy management of immigration issues, tense relations with the White House during her administration, and professional stains in her early prosecutorial career. Harris seems to have left the public with the impression of poor business ability and poor popularity in the past four years.

But in the final analysis, Harris is still the most likely candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. Her participation can be said to be forced by the situation, or she can be said to be chosen as a "scapegoat". However, at present, perhaps the Democratic Party hopes to create a "weak main and strong deputy" combination to win votes, which means that perhaps who Harris's deputy is deserves more attention -It is possible that this deputy may become the Democratic candidate in 2028.