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october 7, 2024 marks the first anniversary of the postponement of the palestinian-israeli conflict. recent developments in the middle east have made the prospects for peace even slimmer. the ceasefire negotiations between israel and hamas have actually stalled. top leaders of hezbollah in lebanon have been killed one after another. iran has carried out retaliatory actions. there have been constant exchanges of fire on the lebanese-israeli border. the united states has increased its military presence in the middle east. the conflict resulted in the deaths of more than 41,000 palestinians in the gaza strip and the injuries of more than 960,000 people. the entire gaza was plunged into a humanitarian crisis.

how will the conflict develop next? when will there be a turning point? is there still room for maneuver on the differences between the two sides in the ceasefire negotiations? the paper (www.thepaper.cn) conducted an exclusive interview with gong xiaosheng, the former special envoy of the chinese government on the middle east issue, on related issues.

gong xiaosheng was the director of china's office in the palestinian national authority. he has been engaged in diplomacy for 40 years and has worked in the middle east for a long time. he was called a "middle east expert" by wu sike, the third special envoy for the middle east. gong xiaosheng bluntly said that the current situation in the middle east is worrying and the development is regrettable. he believes that the israeli military operation has gone far beyond the scope of the palestinian-israeli conflict. in addition to solving the gaza issue, there are more considerations behind it. however, military pressure cannot truly solve the problem. the middle east must ultimately achieve peace and stability through political settlement.

the paper:on september 27, lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah was killed in an israeli targeted strike; on october 1, the israel defense forces launched a ground invasion in southern lebanon. nasrallah’s cousin and hezbollah’s possible successor hash m safieddin died. the palestinian-israeli conflict has lasted for a year. why did israel choose this time to launch a war against hezbollah in lebanon? can the israeli army ease the situation on its northern border through strong military operations?

gong xiaosheng:during the one-year conflict, israel mobilized hundreds of thousands of reservists and used almost all cutting-edge weapons except nuclear weapons. the scale of the war and the intensity of the conflict continued to increase. this was unprecedented since the founding of the state of israel. the war lasted for one year and had a great impact on israel. it is also unprecedented. many analysts believe that israel's goal is not just to retaliate against hamas and solve the problem in gaza, but also has larger and more strategic considerations. the escalation of the conflict with hezbollah in lebanon shows that this is a hotspot conflict that goes far beyond the scope of the palestinian-israeli conflict.

since its founding, israel has been surrounded by arab countries. after achieving reconciliation with egypt and other countries, it has solved the problems on the eastern and southern fronts, leaving only syria and lebanon in the north. now israel has to consider eliminating its potential strategic threats on a larger scale. perhaps the biggest target is iran, and it needs to deal with iran and some other armed forces it supports, such as hezbollah in lebanon.

but i think it is impossible for israel to use military operations to ease the border situation. israel has basically used all the military means it can use, and it will be difficult to achieve the expected goals by expanding the scope of the war.

the paper:how will hezbollah respond to israeli attacks? on october 1, iran launched nearly 200 missiles at israel for the second time this year; in april, israel attacked the iranian consulate in damascus, to which iran responded by launching approximately 300 drones and missiles at israel. what other actions will iran take next?

gong xiaosheng:the assassination of nasrallah is definitely an escalating action, but it remains to be seen whether hezbollah will give up its previous relatively restrained attitude and start a big fight.

in recent years, both israel and hezbollah have been working hard to develop their military capabilities, and now the shape of war is also changing. hezbollah is a political party that is armed and has a very special organizational structure, with both open and secret parts. it is difficult to say whether the killing of top leaders of hezbollah will affect its military capabilities. if the war escalates, hezbollah will still have combat capabilities.

however, judging from past experience, although hezbollah’s stance is very tough, its actual approach is very flexible and has always been restrained. conflict with israel is not a good option for hezbollah. i am afraid that the two sides will still maintain a relatively less intense military pressure.

iran has also been very restrained in the middle east in the past two years. now it must not only consider the actual situation, but also consider its long-term development and survival. restraint is relative, not absolute, and iran cannot be ruled out taking some retaliatory actions. but fundamentally speaking, maintaining restraint is in line with the judgment of iranian leaders. overall, iran will continue to maintain a relatively restrained attitude. there are many ways for the two sides to escalate the conflict, and iran does not necessarily have to take action personally to call it revenge.

the paper:can a ceasefire between lebanon and israel be achieved as soon as possible? does israel intend to continue to escalate the situation?

gong xiaosheng:it is more difficult to cease fire now, and israel itself admits that the only one that can exert greater pressure on it, or make it stop, is the united states. the united states is in the critical period of the election, and it is difficult for the biden administration to put pressure on israel now. for israel, the situation is that there are no traffic police at the intersection and it can run the red light. but whether to go forward at an intersection depends on the driver's judgment. israeli prime minister netanyahu knows that it is difficult to achieve his goals through military means alone, but he needs to maintain and use a strong attitude to achieve policy and strategic goals.

it is currently difficult to judge whether israel will further escalate the war on a large scale or expand the war to a wider area. this is neither in israel's interests nor beyond israel's own military capabilities. especially when the united states is still in the general election, if israel goes too far, it will not be in the interests of the united states.

the paper:the conflict has lasted for a year. how do you view the current situation? is the middle east on the brink of all-out war?

gong xiaosheng:after israel withdrew from the gaza strip in 2005 and handed over gaza and the west bank to the palestinian national authority, there have been different voices in israel. the israeli side is unwilling to bear the unbearable burden of feeding the palestinians, but it also hopes to control the situation. this time the palestinian-israeli conflict has created a new opportunity for israel to re-examine its actions in returning gaza. after reassessing, there are many options for what actions israel will take.

the possibility of total war exists, but it does not get higher. no country is willing to see the situation in this region get out of control. in fact, they all proceed from their own different interests and perspectives and take actions to maintain its stability and prevent the situation from getting out of control. for regional countries, countries such as lebanon, syria, and egypt are unwilling to get involved in the war. the sooner netanyahu can resolve this conflict, the sooner it will be the best news for israel’s national interests and people.

the paper:israel has always emphasized the need to eliminate hamas. can its goal be achieved? the ceasefire negotiations have stalled. the two sides have serious differences on issues such as the exchange of the number of detained persons and control of the two corridors. how much room is there for a diplomatic settlement?

gong xiaosheng:there is no dispute that israel wants to secure the release of the hostages. regarding the elimination of hamas armed forces, israel will strive to achieve such a goal. but hamas developed from the palestinian popular resistance. it is not only hamas but also other factions. it is impossible to completely eliminate them.

hamas's military strength is very limited. it only has light weapons and some rockets and missiles that were later developed with little lethality. it is very difficult to control the war situation with such inferior weapons, especially against opponents like israel. .

at present, israel has been maintaining strong military pressure, and hamas's armed forces and military means have been greatly weakened. in a sense, israel's goal has been basically achieved. it will be difficult for hamas to launch another attack on the scale of last october. however, it is difficult for israel to completely eliminate hamas, and it is also difficult for israel to prevent the possibility of hamas receiving new assistance and developing its armed forces again in the future.

the palestinian-israeli negotiations are now at a deadlock. judging from the disputes between the two parties, there is very little room for maneuver. the hostages are vital to israel, and militarily controlling the strategic points of gaza is also a very important goal. there may be new proposals for ceasefire negotiations in the future, but there will be many key points that the two sides will compete for. the final release of all hostages is a condition that israel will not relent, but the method and time of release are negotiable. i think in comparison, other differences have a certain amount of room for maneuver.

the paper:can the united states put pressure on israel by reducing military aid? how will the upcoming us election affect the direction of the conflict?

gong xiaosheng:military aid is a powerful card used by the united states to put pressure on israel. the united states has used it in the past, but the relationship between israel and the united states is very complicated, and it is difficult for the united states to use such a card against israel easily. the united states itself has repeatedly advocated that it wants to gradually disengage from the middle east. it also hopes to see a relative balance in the middle east and to see the situation in the middle east not get out of control.

when the palestinian-israeli conflict escalated in this round, israel was attacked, and the united states had to stand up for israel and provide strong political and military support. however, overall, this is not in line with the strategic deployment of the united states. if someone wants to provoke a full-scale war, the united states will not i hope this happens. now the focus of the united states is on the general election, and it is difficult to take strong diplomatic actions internationally. after the us election, it is possible that a new opportunity will be created for the situation in the middle east, and only then will the two sides be able to return to the negotiating table.

the paper:what are the prospects for the “two-state solution”? what is the biggest obstacle to advancing palestinian statehood?

gong xiaosheng:the international community generally believes that the "two-state solution" is the best solution and the recognized direction of efforts. but netanyahu is very entangled. if he makes this choice, it means that israel will have to make major concessions. when israel is in a strong position, it is quite difficult to make such a major concession and win the support of various parties and the public in israel.

as for palestine, the current leaders, like abbas, are over 80 years old. as time goes by, this generation of leaders gradually withdraws from the political stage. it is still difficult to judge what the situation will be like when new leaders emerge. . we hope that both sides can realize as soon as possible that peace is the only option in the end.

the biggest obstacle to promoting the establishment of a palestinian state may be the current mutual distrust between the two sides, and many core issues are difficult to resolve, such as the ownership of jerusalem, border issues, refugee return issues, settlement issues, etc. the key is that both sides must make the political decision to move towards peace, and then they can find ways to resolve the difficulties in the dispute one by one and achieve peace.

the paper:the conflict has lasted for a year and is difficult to resolve. there are voices questioning the failure of the united nations mechanism and its failure to effectively promote a ceasefire and an end to the war. how do you view this statement? how should countries promote the united nations to play a better role? what is the significance of the international community's efforts to promote peace talks?

gong xiaosheng:in recent years, the international community, especially developing countries, has increasingly questioned the existing united nations mechanisms. the united nations cannot be just a club of big powers. it must represent a wider range of developing countries. this is why almost all countries in the world support the reform of the united nations and is the driving force for the reform of the united nations.

i have worked in the permanent mission of china to the united nations for more than two years and have observed it closely. the united nations is a political choice made by our human society after two world wars. the united nations charter is a summary of the basic norms of modern international law and international relations, reflecting the political will of the international community to maintain world peace.

although there is a lot of criticism about the unsatisfactory aspects of the united nations, so far, the united nations is still the best way and mechanism to solve international conflicts and world security issues. the strength of its role depends on whether un member states truly support the role of the un. only with broad support from the international community will it become more and more effective. we still need to find some ways to allow the voices of more members of the international community to have an impact, rather than just being interfered and manipulated by a few countries.

solving international issues is very complex and difficult, and the same is true for the middle east issue. but someone has to push for a solution, and our efforts are an integral part of the process. some efforts may not seem to have obvious effects in the short term. this is a process of gradual recognition.

for example, in palestine, all parties have long called for greater unity within palestine and the formation of a unified voice, so that they can better safeguard the interests of the entire palestinian nation. previously, palestinian factions signed the beijing declaration in beijing. it is not easy to invite various palestinian factions and organizations to come to beijing and sit together to discuss major issues. they cannot do this themselves. the "beijing declaration" was issued to strengthen palestinian unity, although in the short term it may not have direct results on the situation. but just like we paved another big stone on the road, the road took another step forward. with such a big stone, our road will get better and better and farther and farther.

the paper:this round of conflict has caused heavy casualties and continues to spill over, posing huge risks to peace and stability in the middle east. what kind of reflection should such a conflict cause the international community?

gong xiaosheng:judging from the situation of military operations in this conflict, it has emerged some new characteristics. take hamas for example. the attack methods and weapons they use far exceed the international community's previous understanding of them. the international community did not expect that crude weapons could cause such great damage and have such a huge impact. the explosion of communication equipment in lebanon is a brand new form of war, which is enough to attract the attention of the international community.

nowadays, the scope of war is getting larger and larger, the methods are becoming more and more bizarre, and there is increasingly no bottom line. this state of affairs should be highly vigilant and firmly opposed by the international community.

the international community must also generally realize that our peace is still fragile, and the international environment we live in is not that stable. we must be very vigilant against the outbreak of new conflicts and new hot spots in the world, and must do more. diplomatic efforts to maintain rare and valuable peace and stability.