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[text/observer.com columnist hou feng]

the two parties in the united states are encircling china. they are not the most ruthless, only more ruthless.

as the general election approaches, the u.s. political arena is once again launching a legislative upsurge to suppress china. the presidential candidates of the democratic and republican parties are competing to demonstrate their tough tactics against china, especially the emerging strategies to suppress china's emerging industries represented by electric vehicles.

for example, the u.s. department of commerce officially announced on september 23 that it will propose a ban on the use of key hardware and software from china in intelligent connected cars in the united states, and hopes to finalize the final rules before january 20 next year.

according to previous announcements by the office of the united states trade representative, tariffs on some chinese imported goods will be increased starting from september 27. among them, the tariff on pure electric vehicles will be increased to 4 times, with a tax rate of 100%; the tariff on steel and aluminum products will be increased to 25% (currently 0% to 7.5%), and the tariff on ev batteries will also be increased to 25%. 25% (currently 7.5%).

it must be mentioned that when it comes to imposing tariffs on chinese imported products, the two parties, which have always had opposing ideas, rarely share the same hatred and hatred.

as early as may 14, the white house issued an announcement announcing the imposition of additional tariffs on $18 billion of products imported from china. according to the white house’s “fact sheet on president biden’s actions to protect american workers and businesses from china’s unfair trade practices,” the united states will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on the following products from china:

the tariff rate on some steel and aluminum products will be increased from 0-7.5% to 25% in 2024;

semiconductorthe tariff rate will increase from 25% to 50% in 2025;

the tariff rate for electric vehicles will increase from 25% to 100% in 2024;

the tariff rate for lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries will be increased from 7.5% to 25% in 2024;

the tariff rate for lithium-ion non-electric vehicle batteries will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2026;

the tariff rate on battery parts will be increased from 7.5% to 25% in 2024;

tariff rates for natural graphite and permanent magnets will increase from zero to 25% in 2026;

tariff rates on some other critical minerals will be increased from zero to 25% in 2024;

solar cell(whether assembled into modules or not) the tariff rate will be increased from 25% to 50% in 2024;

the tariff rate for port cranes will increase from 0% to 25% in 2024;

duty rates on syringes and needles to increase from 0% to 50% in 2024;

increase in tariff rates on certain personal protective equipment, including respirators and masks, from 0-7.5% to 25% in 2024;

tariffs on medical and surgical rubber gloves will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2026.

so far, due to strong opposition from the us industry, some products such as port cranes have to be included in the list of suspended measures, while others are being gradually implemented.

seeing how "dramatic" the biden administration is, how can trump, who has always been aggressive, accept defeat - there is no cruelty, only more ruthlessness.

in an exclusive interview with time magazine, trump said that if re-elected in november, he would impose further tariffs on china. not only would he impose a 60% tariff on all chinese goods, he would also impose at least a 10% tariff on all u.s. imports worth $3 trillion. this is worse than the war he started with china during his last term as president.trade warthe policy at the time was more radical, aiming to pave the way for a plan to cut federal income taxes and rely instead on tariffs to supplement fiscal revenue.

the awareness of crisis in american political circles is unprecedentedly high, and there seems to be a sense of life-and-death urgency. if it does not take action, or if it takes action too late, the united states will no longer be able to dominate the world. to this end, the united states has mobilized all its forces to build "small courtyards and high walls." in addition to imposing tariffs on its own, it also uses near-shoring and friendly-shoring supply chains to win over or coerce allies and countries related to the so-called ideological industrial chain to join the containment of china.

such as canada. after detaining meng wanzhou on the order of the united states, canada once again followed the footsteps of the united states and copied the united states' punitive tariffs against china. on august 26, local time, canadian prime minister trudeau announced that canada would impose a 100% tariff on electric vehicles imported from china and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imported from china. these tariff rates for china are the same as those of the united states. quite.

another example is the european union. shortly after the white house in the united states announced a new round of tariff increases in may, the european commission announced on june 12 that the eu would temporarily increase import tariffs on chinese electric vehicles from july 4. of course, this was later forced by companies and the market. due to pressure, relevant tax rates were lowered.

it can be said that after the encirclement and suppression of huawei, a new round of strategic game to strangle china's electric vehicles and new energy industries is unfolding.

politicians fight ruthlessly, but people pay the bill

since trump provoked the sino-us trade war under the banner of so-called fair trade and balancing the sino-us trade deficit, the united states has continued to wield the big stick of sanctions around the world, and like taking drugs, it is becoming more and more addicted and dancing more and more vigorously. , they want to punish anyone who doesn’t like them.

in fact, trade wars have always been double-edged swords, and it is impossible to only hurt the other party without harming oneself.

yes, trump’s trade war and biden’s technology blockade have indeed brought many difficulties to china’s economy; however, most of the tariffs imposed by trump have been passed on to american consumers and have been digested and absorbed by american companies and people. .

as u.s. vice president harris said at a campaign rally in north carolina on september 16, trump’s import tariffs are a “trump tax” on the american people; and in the debate with trump biden has also fiercely attacked trump's tariff policy, saying that trump's tariff increases will cost each american family an extra $2,500 a year.

it is worth mentioning that a recent analysis by the peterson institute for international economics found that if trump were elected to impose 10% tariffs on all goods and 60% tariffs on china, the typical middle-income earner would be household expenses will increase by approximately $1,700 per year.

an analysis by the right-leaning american action forum estimated that a 10% tariff could cost each american household up to $2,350 in additional costs per year; a 60% tariff on chinese goods would cost american households even more. add $1950.

whether it is a 25% tariff or a 60% tariff, it shows that the us market needs these products, otherwise trump and biden would have decoupled and broken the chain. it’s easy to talk big words, but the reality is that no matter trump or biden, after a period of time as president of the united states, they will realize that the united states is too dependent on chinese products and resources. if they immediately disconnect and cut off the links, they will destroy the united states. life.

yes, life will be difficult for chinese export-oriented enterprises for a period of time if they are decoupled and broken; but half of the goods in the us market may be out of stock, and even if you have money, you can't buy daily necessities, and life will be difficult.

“para bellum”

"para bellum" is a latin phrase meaning "if you want peace, be prepared for war."

american politicians often use this famous saying recently, as if they are innocent peace lovers who have no choice but to provoke war for the sake of peace. a typical case is that hamas leader ismail haniyeh was assassinated during his visit to tehran. in order to prevent iran from retaliating against israel, the united states dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups to protect israel.

in fact, "para bellum" is a moral and legal excuse for them to attack dissidents and show off their force; those who say this phrase value more the dividends of powerful wars. being able to overwhelm all opponents with powerful strength - this is the law of the jungle that western powers have believed in for hundreds of years and have tried repeatedly.

the united states and the west unscrupulously engage in double standards, use every possible means to attack china, and undermine the global trade system. this reminds people of the history of a hundred years ago:

under the guise of balancing the sino-british trade deficit, britain used a few warships and cannons to force china to open its doors to import british opium and cede territory to pay compensation. it united with france to launch the second opium war. attacked the forbidden city, burned the old summer palace, and forced the manchu qing government to sign the treaty of beijing. at this point, the qing government, which was corrupt and incompetent and alienated from mainstream society, sent a signal to the west that in order to maintain power, it would rather cede territory and pay indemnities than go to war. in a country with some ability, who wouldn’t want to join a bandit gang and go to china to make a fortune? hence, the eight-power allied forces invaded china; and later, the "july 7th incident"...

the result of fear of war is war and disaster.

u.s. deputy secretary of state kurt campbell bluntly stated before the house foreign affairs committee on september 18 that china is the greatest all-round challenge in u.s. history, even greater than the challenge during the cold war. “the cold war pales in comparison to the multifaceted challenges posed by china. it’s not just military challenges, it’s all-encompassing, both in the global south and in technology.”

the two parties have unprecedentedly consistent strategies of hostility toward china. no matter who comes to power in the future, it is foreseeable that a new round of trade war between china and the united states will be inevitable, and the war may not be limited to the trade field.

will china let the tragedy of "people are stupid and have too much money" in the western impression happen again? obviously not. judging from the public opinion field in recent years, "throw away your illusions and prepare for struggle" has gradually become one of the social consensus, and "hit with one punch to avoid hundreds of punches" has become more and more common. after all, if it is profitable to launch a trade war against china, there is no need to worry about the price of unforgettable pain and suffering. there is no guarantee that other countries and regions will not follow the united states and "eat meat and drink soup."

of course, we despise it strategically and attach great importance to it tactically. due to the ubiquitous us hegemonic system and the imbalance of sino-us trade, china has always been in a relatively passive position in the trade war. how we can carry out a massive counterattack like the control over the export of rare metals is a question worthy of our serious consideration.

this article is an exclusive manuscript of observer.com. the content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. it may not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. follow observer.com on wechat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.