on october 2, hong kong stocks surged again. as of the close, the hang seng index rose by 6.33% and the hang seng technology index rose by 8.91%. brokerage stocks have become the leading sector, with shenwan hongyuan hong kong rising 206% in a single day and first shanghai's share price doubling.

in fact, compared to the explosive rise of a-shares, the rise of hong kong stocks is more like a long-planned carnival. hong kong's hang seng index has been rising steadily this year, with a year-to-date increase of 23.97% (as of september 30), surpassing the nasdaq index, s&p 500 index, nikkei 225 index and other major national market indexes, ranking among the world's major stocks index number one.

increase in major stock indexes (january 1 - september 30, 2024)

the long-lost bull market

"it feels a bit like the hong kong drama "big era"." when the reporter interviewed liang yuan, he still couldn't restrain his excitement. liang yuan is a student at the school of economics and management of the university of hong kong and only started to get involved in the stock market last year.

"i mainly focus on some blue chip stocks, such as banks, communications, and some popular stocks with relatively large trading volume. before this week, there were profits and losses. but last week, the profit for the week exceeded 20%." when talking about 20 when he saw the number %, liang yuan couldn't help but laugh.

compared to liang yuan's excitement, mark was obviously much calmer. he has invested in hong kong stocks for more than 20 years. previously, he worked as an investment manager in a large domestic financial institution. this year he started his own business and established a private equity fund.

"everyone knows that hong kong stocks are valuable. the continued downturn in hong kong stocks in the past two years has little to do with the fundamentals of listed companies. it just depends on whether you dare to buy and when to buy. when investing, you must be forward-looking and right. we have the ability to make quick judgments about emergencies. for example, the fed's interest rate cut was expected, so we would plan for some cyclical stocks in advance. however, the intensity of the policies introduced by domestic regulatory agencies surprised everyone after the news came out. , we quickly increased our positions in real estate and financial stocks," mark said when reviewing last week's market conditions for reporters.

"i have never opened a securities account in hong kong. i mainly invest in hong kong stocks through qdii funds. investing in hong kong stocks is due to asset allocation considerations. after all, the hong kong market has many companies that are not available in the mainland stock market." zhao ting is a housewife living in shenzhen. but i have my own ideas about investment and financial management.

"the hong kong stock funds i bought before, especially those held for a long time, suffered huge losses. unexpectedly, within a week, several funds had already recovered their blood. but i will not increase my investment and just treat it as a long-term asset allocation. ." zhao ting said.

the popularity of hong kong stocks is also directly reflected in the number of account openings.

futu securities data shows that the number of hong kong stock account openings increased by 103% last week. a staff member of longbridge securities told reporters that the number of mainland residents inquiring about opening an account has surged recently. however, she reminded investors who want to open a hong kong stock securities account that currently they need to open an account in hong kong on-site. the materials include proof of identity, proof of address, immigration records and a certain amount of cash. investors first need to open a bank account at a local bank in hong kong, and the bank will also arrange interviews, identity verification and other processes before finally signing an account opening agreement.

who is buying hong kong stocks?

according to statistics from reporters, the theme sectors with the largest gains in hong kong stocks last week were liquor, beer, car dealers and chinese brokerage stocks, with increases of 36.55%, 30.44%, 30.31% and 29.56% respectively.

compared with the overall rise of the index, the market differentiation of various industries is relatively large. in terms of industries (data as of september 30), there are only three industry indexes that outperform the hang seng index, namely information technology, raw materials and energy, with increases of 32.92%, 32.81% and 26.87% respectively. among the 82 constituent stocks of the hang seng index, 56 rose and 26 stocks were still in decline.

"liquor and brokerage firms are both industries that southbound funds are paying more attention to. one is a representative of consumption, and the other is the sector that benefits most from the bull market." mark told reporters, "in a-shares, the brokerage sector has always been known as the 'bull market flag bearer'. because trading volume has a direct impact on the performance of securities companies. this was not the case in hong kong stocks, but as more and more chinese securities companies are listed in hong kong and included in the hong kong stock connect, they will also be favored by southbound funds. "

wind data shows that the largest purchase by foreign institutions last week was china construction bank, buying approximately 526.0399 million shares. the latest shareholding was 58.550 billion shares, and the shareholding ratio of international intermediaries accounted for 24.34%. ranked second is sensetime-w, with foreign investors buying approximately 340.4607 million shares and the latest shareholding being 7.309 billion shares. international intermediaries hold approximately 21.14% of the shares. in addition, foreign investors such as china tower, unicom biotechnology group, and industrial and commercial bank of china have purchased more shares in the past week, with 337.8232 million shares, 301.0390 million shares, and 284.1731 million shares respectively. in addition, bank of china, agricultural bank of china and china minsheng bank were also heavily purchased by foreign investors.

"international capital prefers large financial stocks such as banks and insurance, as well as large technology stocks. financial stocks have been doing well this year because of their good dividends. the continued buybacks of tencent and alibaba have gradually revealed the company's investment value. more the important thing is that compared with the current technology bull market in the us stock market, the investment value of chinese technology stocks is based on comparison.

the future market is worth looking forward to

mainstream institutions are still optimistic about the trend of hong kong stocks in the fourth quarter, but some institutions have warned of risks.

"i am firmly optimistic about the investment value of hong kong stocks, especially blue-chip stocks and technology stocks with high dividends. but with such a rapid rise, i will be more cautious, and my position will gradually decrease, and i will buy after the correction." mark said.

mark's views are very representative.

zhou linhong, an analyst at haitong international, also believes that the current sharp rise has basically been repaired, and there is still upward momentum in the short term but it is overbought. zhou linhong believes: "most of the funds that can enter the market in the short term have already entered the market. at the current position, we still need to be patient and wait for the opportunity for shock layout. the hang seng index will probably fluctuate around 20,000 to 22,000 points, and the shanghai composite index will start to fluctuate around 3,100 to 3,300 points."

in addition, zhou linhong also reminded investors to pay attention to some risks, including disturbances in the us election, global regional conflicts, and domestic economic data issues.

"but any correction is a layout opportunity. we expect that there will still be a third wave of rising opportunities at the end of the year to restore valuations again, and next year will start a comprehensive rise. the third wave of market still needs to see improvement in fundamental data, and next year's market will it is driven by profits, and the second half of this year is expected to be the bottom of profits," zhou linhong emphasized.

guotai junan (hong kong) analyst zhan chunli regards the appreciation of the rmb as the driving force for hong kong stocks to continue to rise. according to his statistics, there is an obvious resonance relationship between the rmb exchange rate and hong kong stocks. usually, when the rmb rises, hong kong stocks also rise; when the rmb falls, hong kong stocks also fall.

"there are four reasons why rmb appreciation has boosted hong kong stocks. first, chinese-funded companies listed in hong kong account for a large proportion, accounting for more than 50% of the number of companies, and their market value accounts for about 80% of the overall hong kong stock market value. chinese-funded companies calculate their profits in rmb. the hong kong dollar is used for valuation, so the appreciation of the rmb will increase the profit level on the numerator. secondly, the appreciation of the rmb usually means that the us dollar enters the interest rate cut channel. from the logic of the denominator, it will also trigger a rebound in the hong kong stock market. thirdly, it is beneficial to the hong kong stock market. the funds going south are quoted in hong kong dollars and settled in rmb. fourth, many chinese-backed companies listed in hong kong issue us dollar bonds in hong kong, and the strengthening of the rmb will also help reduce the company’s interest payment and repayment costs," zhan chunli said. .

as for which sectors have more investment value, analysts and fund managers have different preferences.

zhou linhong said that the current surge is mainly due to the valuation restoration of big finance and the internet as a pioneer. when the market risk preference reverses, there will be a large number of layout opportunities for the main line of technology and new productivity in the growth style, especially hard technology, ai, high-end manufacturing and innovative drugs will become the mainstream of the market.

hang seng qianhai fund manager xing cheng suggested that we should focus on a balanced strategy, that is, on the one hand, we should focus on opportunities in industries that are sensitive to downward interest rates in the growth track, such as the internet, new energy vehicles, technology hardware, biomedicine and other long-duration industries. the sector, on the other hand, focuses on high-dividend targets with more certain shareholder returns.

zhang jintao, value style investment director of harvest fund, pointed out that from the perspective of global market valuation attractiveness and capital rebalancing, a-share and hong kong stock high-quality assets already have allocation advantages. for example, the valuation of china's leading internet companies is at a low level in the world. if foreign capital returns, they may be more inclined to buy such high-quality assets with certain growth potential and good competition. as overseas risk-free interest rates decline, chinese assets with low valuations and high dividends become more attractive, and hong kong stocks are also expected to become the first choice for global funds to allocate chinese assets.

"i was not yet born when "big time" was broadcast, but it was my favorite hong kong drama. in the drama, there are not only the ups and downs of the stock market, but also many things about human nature. i hope to stay in hong kong and work in finance after graduation. industry, can have the opportunity to experience a new era," liang yuan told reporters at the end of the interview.

editor: li dan

proofreading: wang jincheng

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