supply cuts surge! the bank finally bowed its head
2024-09-28
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yes, the suspension of mortgage payments has gradually begun to be treated coldly.just look at this message:
in other words, after the loan is cut off for the first time, the bank understands the situation and advises them not to cut off the payment. if there is really no other way, they can also extend the repayment period and the repayment amount, and try their best to help the owners who have cut off the loan. if the interest rate of existing housing is high, the policy lower interest rates within the range, etc.borrowers are classified according to their current difficulties, willingness and ability to repay, and different loan termination types have different solutions.to put it bluntly, we should persuade you if you can, repay if you can, and try not to foreclose on the matter as soon as possible.after all, foreclosure also requires waiting, and flexible handling can reduce the occurrence of a vicious cycle.it has to be said that banks, which were in a strong position to cut off mortgage payments, began to change.we have once again witnessed a historic moment!because of the amount of heavenforeclosure roomblowout hits the market.according to cric monitoring, as of august 31, the cumulative number of foreclosure houses in typical cities was 280,000, an increase of 12% compared to the same period in 2023.
foreclosures have soared in recent years, and have even become one of the factors affecting market prices.as early as 2017, there were only 9,000 foreclosed houses, and in 2018 it was 20,000. in recent years, it has been 606,000 in 2022, and 796,000 in 2023. i don’t need to say more about the meaning behind these numbers. .break them down into each city and you'll find:hundreds of foreclosures are stirring up prices in every city.taking the discount rate of foreclosure homes in august, the average was around 29%, and some were even 40% and above.in other words, a large number of transaction prices at 60-30% off have flooded into the market, impacting the already downward trend of prices.there are also a lot of unsold auctions, and the proportion of second auctions has increased. in the first half of the year, the second auction and above accounted for almost 40%, and the second auction prices are lower than the first auction.secondly, the house mortgage cannot cover the principal.when housing prices rise, floods flood the market, and many areas go against the laws of the market. people are anxious and blindly make choices.come, let’s look directly at the listing price of a certain central city.you know, during the peak period, these prices would exceed 10,000 yuan. even if the subway passes, they will still become hegang prices.at the current price, it is difficult to complete the transaction under normal listing, let alone a foreclosure auction. how to reach the principal?the surge in foreclosures has become a hot potato for banksit has to be said that another heavy hammer hits the bank at this moment.
the bank that wins hemp is gone forever on the difficult road.the bank’s data for the first half of the year was released, and it was really shattered.among the 42 banks, 26 had revenue growth and 16 had negative revenue growth.banks with greater growth are basically located in the southeast coast, such as bank of zhengzhou, china everbright bank, minsheng bank, and ping an bank, which have experienced greater declines.it is worth noting that, except for the growth of agricultural bank of china, the revenue of china construction communications post was all negative.not only revenue, but also net interest margin (the difference between interest rates on deposits and loans), a key factor in measuring bank profitability, is also difficult.according to data from the state administration of financial supervision, it was 1.54% in the second quarter, the same as the first quarter, and lower than the warning line of bank net interest margin of 1.8%.in terms of net interest margin,the one that performed relatively well was china merchants bank, which reached 2.0%.however, a careful look at the semi-annual performance report of china merchants bank also leaves a lot of people panicked:revenue dropped to 172.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.09%; net profit was 75.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%.
the market is recognized as the most profitable leader. after experiencing double negative growth in revenue and net profit in 2023, it has shown worse results in the first half of the year, and the decline has become larger and larger.you know, from 2016 to 2023, china merchants bank's half-year revenue was good, and sometimes the growth could reach double digits.the most typical one is that in 2021, the revenue growth rate and net profit are 13.75% and 22.82% respectively. but now these two sets of figures have become both negative numbers, which shows the gap.the data has been on a downward spiral from 2023 to now, and the last time this happened was in 2009.the barometer of banks has emerged, especially the continued shrinkage of mortgage loans, which are relatively high-quality loans for banks. people are no longer willing to do this.let’s look at it. in the first half of the year, personal housing loans from the six major state-owned banks decreased by 325.471 billion. last year, it only decreased by 556.857 billion.as deposit interest rates continue to fall, everyone's sentiment toward repaying loans early has become more intense.as long as you have money in hand, you will repay the loan, so you will find that many banks have queues for early loan repayment for several months.coupled with the imbalance of the loan structure, corporate loans increased by 11.9% year-on-year. its increase is safe but low-yield.i recall what the chairman of china merchants bank once said a year ago:the three dividends of banks are rapid economic growth, booming property market, and high interest rate spreads.but now these three points have turned, from rapid growth to stock, the sluggishness of the property market, and the narrowing of interest rate spreads.really, the days when banks were just lying around and making money are a thing of the past.
no, some people are starting to stage a breakup agreement in the industry!let’s take a look at the personnel changes in 31 listed banks that disclosed detailed employee information.there were 22 companies with sharp declines in personnel, and only 9 companies with growth.it can be seen from these data that about 34,000 employees of 31 companies have left, and more than 2 million people are still struggling.at a glance, it can be seen that the largest decrease is that of industrial and commercial bank of china, with 10,561 people.the number of people reduced is twice that of aershan, the least populous city.it is indeed rare to lose tens of thousands of employees in the first half of the year. after all, in the past 10 years, icbc's employee reductions ranged from 3,500 to 9,000 people.we looked at the data from the industrial and commercial bank of china and found that it has been continuously reducing its workforce for 10 years, and the number of employees has exceeded 50,000.not only the industrial and commercial bank of china, but also the postal savings bank, china construction bank, and the agricultural bank of china also lost more than 4,000 people.ningbo bank's shrinkage ratio is also relatively high, reaching 5.71%, and ping an bank and zhangjiagang bank have exceeded 5%.in this wave of breakup agreements, the six major banks are the main force. according to statistics at the end of june, the total number of employees of the six major banks decreased by 1.27% compared with the end of last year, which is 23,700 people.it is worth noting that at the postal savings bank, as of the first half of the year, the number of employees under the age of 30 had dropped to 31,360. at the end of last year, there were still 36,623 people, accounting for more than 20%. now it is only 17.61%.this also means that the number of employees "30 years old and under" decreased by 5,263, which is surprising.i have to say that a wave of young people are starting to leave this so-called "golden rice bowl."what grows and remains is a wave of people who have car loans, housing loans, elderly people to support, and children who want to go to school.fighting to death may be their only way out.in the future, this kind of breakup agreement will continue to be staged, and the transformation of the industry has just begun.
the iron rice bowl and the golden rice bowl will face greater challenges from 2024.the period of making money comfortably with eyes closed has become a nostalgia, and living a tight life has become a trend in the future.the exodus of about 30,000 bank employees has sounded the alarm for the entire industry.under the current circumstances, what follows is a major reshuffle of the industry.take the current catering industry, taking data from beijing as an example. in the first half of the year, operating income and total profits declined year-on-year, but the number of employees increased by 2.9% year-on-year. among them, the number of employees in catering distribution and takeout delivery services increased by 49.7% year-on-year.isn’t the skyrocketing number of delivery workers and involution the problem?what do you think of the turbulence in banks at the moment? chat in the comment section!
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