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the japanese liberal democratic party presidential election will be held on september 27. the current japanese prime minister and ldp president fumio kishida has announced that he will not run for the election, which means that after the election, the new ldp president will take over as prime minister.

a total of nine candidates participated in the election this time, namely the current minister of economic security sanae takaichi, former minister of economic security takayuki kobayashi, current chief cabinet secretary yoshimasa hayashi, former environment minister shinjiro koizumi, current foreign minister yoko kamikawa, former chief cabinet secretary katsunobu kato, current digital minister taro kono, former ldp secretary-general shigeru ishiba, and current ldp secretary-general toshimitsu motegi.

kyodo news, yomiuri shimbun and nihon keizai shimbun recently conducted surveys on the voting trends of japanese parliamentarians and ldp members and party friends. the results showed that shinjiro koizumi, shigeru ishiba and sanae takaichi are expected to rank in the top three, and the rankings of the three in different media surveys are slightly different. analysis points out that the new ldp president is more likely to be one of the above three.

according to the election rules, each of the 368 ldp members of parliament has one vote, and the votes of local councilors, ordinary party members and "party friends" or registered supporters are converted into 368 votes, totaling 736 votes. the person who gets more than half of the votes will be elected president. if no one gets more than half of the votes, the top two will enter the second round, the runoff round, with party members and party friends' votes converted into 47 votes, and the parliamentarians' votes into 368 votes.

it is rare in the history of the liberal democratic party to have a nine-member melee. against the backdrop of the party's "black money" scandal at the end of last year and the dissolution of mainstream factions such as the kishida faction this year, this election is full of uncertainty and may also produce japan's youngest prime minister or the first female prime minister.

on september 23, koichi nakano, professor of political science at sophia university in japan and visiting scholar at the japan-u.s. relations program at harvard university, gave an exclusive interview to the paper (www.thepaper.cn). in response to the current election situation, he pointed out that japan's liberal democratic party vice president taro aso and former prime minister yoshihide suga, as "kingmakers," will exert influence on the votes of lawmakers, and that strategies may change with the results of the first round of voting.

nakano koichi believes that whether or not several popular candidates can be elected does not depend entirely on their strength.the calculations of the political elders, the opinions of the united states, and the situation of the opponents in the final round will all be factors that influence the outcome, while the opinions of the japanese people will have almost no impact on the election.

what are the chances of koizumi, takaichi and ishiba winning?

the paper:there are 9 candidates running in this ldp presidential election, the most in history, but there does not seem to be any candidate with outstanding strength. how do you view this situation?

nakano koichi:indeed, this is true. first of all, this is inseparable from the dissolution of factions. the factions of the liberal democratic party exist almost exclusively for the purpose of the presidential election. after the dissolution of each faction, they are actually in a stage of fluid reorganization, and it is difficult to elect a consistent candidate.

the former "unification church" and "black money scandal" caused the liberal democratic party to face a huge crisis. in this situation, in order to maintain the regime, fumio kishida proposed the decision to disband the faction. other factions faced pressure and disbanded one after another, making it difficult for faction-based actions to be carried out. of course, the faction's dispersion is also related to the assassination of shinzo abe. abe's death caused the abe faction to fall apart, and taro aso and toshihiro nikai, as elders in the party, are already over 80 years old, and it is difficult for them to completely stabilize the overall situation.

factions find it difficult to coordinate unified actions, resulting in a large number of candidates, some of whom did not have much chance of winning from the beginning, such as kato katsunobu and kobayashi takayuki. however, the election process is also a process of the formation of a new faction. how the right wing will regroup in the end, who will be the center and who will become members, this is an opportunity to demonstrate loyalty and strengthen the unity of lawmakers, so many candidates have come out to run.

when there are many candidates, there is a high probability that a second round of voting will be held, where the top two candidates in the first round will compete. at that time, the candidates who failed to enter the second round and the congressmen who supported them will decide which candidate to support in exchange for some kind of reward, which may be an important position in the cabinet or party, or it may be a favor to a specific candidate. once entering the second round, the votes of congressmen have a greater weight, and the coordinated actions of factions will become more important. although there will be no obvious actions by factions this time, the remnants of factions will still be active, and new factions are also being formed.

the paper:the "aso faction" led by taro aso is currently the only openly existing faction within the liberal democratic party. taro aso has long announced his support for taro kono, but he also said that he would allow members of the faction to vote freely. what does this subtle statement show about his plans?

nakano koichi:taro aso publicly expressed his support for taro kono, which is not an advantage for kono. originally, the aso faction, including taro aso himself, was not actively supporting taro kono, as can be seen from the 2021 election. about half of the aso faction supports kono, and the other half may act according to subsequent instructions. therefore, it remains to be seen whether aso really supports taro kono as the leader of the aso faction.

from another perspective, the elderly aso's support in the election may mean that he is ready to give up his position as the leader of the faction to kono, but this also depends on kono's actual performance in the election. if kono fails to enter the second round of voting, he may be regarded as a has-been figure who has lost centripetal force. in the end, the aso faction may not become the kono faction, but will continue to be led by taro aso, and will immediately change direction and bet on another candidate in the runoff.

the paper:japanese media recently conducted a survey on the voting trends of ldp members. multiple surveys showed that supporters of shinjiro koizumi, sanae takaichi and shigeru ishiba were at the top. does this mean that the ldp president is likely to be born from among them? how valuable is such a pre-election survey?

nakano koichi:regarding the election of the ldp president, there are two types of opinion polls and surveys on the voting trends of members of the ldp. the former is almost meaningless because only ldp members can vote in the first round of voting, and 99% of japanese cannot participate in the election. in contrast, surveys on the voting intentions of members of the diet and party members are more valuable for reference. in the first round of voting, the total number of votes from members of the diet, party members and party friends was more than 700. the current survey may indicate that koizumi, takaichi and ishiba shigeru will be able to enter the second round of the runoff.

the paper:what do you think of the election campaigns of shinjiro koizumi, sanae takaichi, and shigeru ishiba?

nakano koichi:frankly speaking, koizumi himself does not have many ideas, so from the perspective of suga yoshihide and some senior lawmakers, if koizumi gains a certain degree of popularity because of his good looks, youth, and resemblance to his father junichiro koizumi, his ideas will be easy to control, so from this perspective he is the best candidate to be recommended.

moreover, as a young face, koizumi will bring a brand new atmosphere. people will think that the previous scandal of black money and the former "unification church" can be put aside and people like koizumi should not continue to bear the responsibility. the same is true for taro aso. after koizumi is elected, it will be easier for aso to exert influence on him. so koizumi may be the candidate with the least inner qualities, but this is also his advantage.

sanae takaichi is seen as shinzo abe's successor, and she is one of abe's supporters in the 2021 election. if takaichi insists on inheriting abe's line, she will have great power. some of abe's supporters have seen kishida's administration over the past three years and feel that the latter's ability is not enough, so they hope to nominate takaichi to power. from this perspective, takaichi also has the possibility of entering the runoff and winning.

if ishiba shigeru enters the runoff, it will be a different story. ishiba shigeru is very popular among party members, so it is possible that he will enter the second round of voting, but if ishiba and koizumi or takaichi face off, ishiba is not expected to win because he does not have high support among lawmakers.

however, from the perspective of american policy experts, sanae takaichi's political spectrum is still too right. from the perspective of the united states, they want to control japan's policy stance toward china. if japan's tough attitude toward china exceeds the united states' expectations, or even unnecessarily provokes china, it will be difficult for the united states to accept it. sanae takaichi may also be aware of this problem. in the previous stage, she continued to make moves on economic security policies, which were to a certain extent done for the united states to see. of course, the result of the us presidential election is unknown. if trump is elected, he will not care too much about the specific candidates for japan's ruling party. but if harris is elected, she may still be wary of people like takaichi.

the paper:to what extent do u.s. opinions influence voting trends within japan’s liberal democratic party?

nakano koichi:i think the opinions of the united states are very important to the ldp members. japanese media reported that fumio kishida had informed the united states of this news before he gave up his re-election. although it has not been verified, japanese politicians do value the views of the united states. the united states will not directly influence the election of the president of the japanese liberal democratic party, but it may have an indirect influence. for example, they may be more interested in young hawkish members like kobayashi takayuki, who are not as crazy as takaichi. the united states may cultivate such people. kobayashi is unlikely to enter the runoff this time, but his influence will increase.

the battle for the kingmaker

the paper:in this ldp presidential election, shinjiro koizumi and takayuki kobayashi are both young candidates in their 40s, with little political experience, but they have many supporters. in the past, ldp members usually held three or four important positions in the party and the cabinet before running for president. now, even without a solid resume, one can become a competitive candidate. is this a signal of "generational change" in the ldp?

nakano koichi:for a long time after the war, only those who had served as finance minister, foreign minister, or ldp secretary-general were considered eligible to run for president. in recent years, there have been long-term regimes like abe and short-term regimes like yoshihide suga. the change of prime ministers is irregular, and the ldp no longer cultivates talents step by step as before.

one obvious change i would like to point out is that the position of the chief cabinet secretary has become more important than in the past. this is because after the reforms of former prime ministers yoshiro mori and junichiro koizumi, the prime minister's office has become more dominant and power has become more concentrated. the power of the ministry of finance and the ministry of foreign affairs has been weakened, and the chief cabinet secretary, as the second-in-command of the cabinet, has become more important. looking back, shinzo abe has served as deputy chief cabinet secretary and chief cabinet secretary, and yoshihide suga has also served as chief cabinet secretary for a long time. among the candidates this time, yoshimasa hayashi and katsunobu kato are the current and former chief cabinet secretary respectively. although their chances of being elected president are not high, they may hold important positions in the cabinet. it is worth noting that who will be the next chief cabinet secretary will also affect the nature of the entire government.

the paper:now, ldp vice president taro aso and former prime minister yoshihide suga are both seen as "kingmakers", with the former openly supporting taro kono and the latter explicitly supporting shinjiro koizumi, and possibly supporting others in secret. how did they gain such great influence within the party in the post-abe era?

nakano koichi:there is indeed a "kingmaker" showdown between taro aso and yoshihide suga surrounding this election. putting aside family background, from the perspective of power control, the rise of the two people should be traced back to the abe era. although abe was very powerful during his administration, it was actually abe, yoshihide suga, aso and toshihiro nikai who jointly operated the political situation. in the later period of abe's administration, he believed that kishida was easy to use and could be used as a successor, and kishida once wanted to replace nikai as the secretary-general of the liberal democratic party. nikai was unwilling to give up power, and at that time yoshihide suga also began to show his willingness to become abe's successor, so the two jointly blocked kishida. after that, with the help of nikai, yoshihide suga became prime minister, and nikai was appointed secretary-general, becoming the longest-serving secretary-general in history, and his power increased. abe and aso were dissatisfied with this and formed a confrontational posture with nikai.

suga yoshihide is looking forward to re-election after his one-year term ends, and abe and aso hope to support his re-election on the condition that nikai resigns. suga yoshihide was caught in the middle and finally had to give up re-election, and nikai was also forced to resign. in the 2021 election, the aso faction and the abe faction supported kishida in the second round of voting. the two faction leaders became kingmakers, and suga yoshihide was marginalized.

therefore, for suga yoshihide, he seeks to return to the core of power as a "kingmaker". now that abe has passed away and nikai has faded out of politics due to his old age, only suga yoshihide and aso taro are left to compete for the role of kingmaker. of course, kishida fumio may also seek to play such a role after leaving office.

the paper:to what extent will the two "kingmakers" influence the election results and the direction of political situation?

nakano koichi:suga's goal is to replace aso with a new "kingmaker" by supporting koizumi as prime minister. for aso, if kono fails to make it to the second round, he may turn to support someone else in the runoff round, such as koizumi, and aso and suga reach some kind of agreement to continue to maintain his influence. now, they should be thinking carefully about who to support in the runoff vote.

each candidate has a core "circle" around him, some of whom may have reached a consensus and decided on the voting plan for the first and second rounds, or they may contact and coordinate immediately after the results of the first round of voting are announced to determine the final voting plan. once entering the final round, the legislators will eventually return to operating as factions, and even form new factions through the presidential election.

the paper:against the domestic backdrop of the dissolution of factions within japan's liberal democratic party, and the external environment of continued geopolitical turmoil, what new developments can we expect from japan's next prime minister?

nakano koichi:no matter who becomes prime minister, the ldp government's policy orientation will not change much amid heightened tensions between the u.s. and china. this is because japan has a parliamentary cabinet system, not a presidential system, which means the prime minister does not have the same power as the president, so the ldp government's governing line will not change much.

and unfortunately, i think this kind of politics without the public will continue, with no incentive mechanism to implement the policies that the japanese people want. the ldp is more like a party of hereditary members, and they don't really care what ordinary people think. only when ordinary people have the right to vote will their opinions be truly valued.