will ai take away my job?
2024-09-16
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the korea herald article on september 11, original title: will ai hit jobs and exacerbate inequality? artificial intelligence (ai) can provide solutions for more areas and further develop productivity, but some people are worried that ai may lead to job losses and widening income gaps. like internal combustion engines and computers, ai is seen as a general technology that often has the potential to affect the economic situation and cause workers to lose their jobs. every technological innovation in history has been accompanied by concerns about "technological unemployment". although the transition period is accompanied by pain, we can always overcome the danger and create more new jobs than lost jobs.
automation usually improves production efficiency, and its output can be used for the research and development of new products and services, thus raising new productivity demands. as new demands and new occupations expand, the number of human jobs that cannot be replaced is also increasing. david otto from mit found that 60% of jobs in the united states in 2018 did not exist in 1940. technological iteration and labor redistribution also put forward new requirements for workers' skills, requiring them to continue to receive training and education. if the economic transformation is not smooth, macroeconomic and financial stability will also have an impact on the labor structure. the polarization of the labor market over the past decades shows that the distribution of income will also be affected by the process of automation.
will the ai era follow the laws of history or open up a new situation? like many technologies, ai has the potential to liberate the productivity of many automated jobs. the ability to continuously self-learn and integrate implicit knowledge from databases gives ai the potential to complete unconventional tasks. some people may think that in the future, ai will perform better than humans in most jobs. this day may come, but it is definitely not now. at this stage, ai can independently complete a few cognitive tasks and assist humans in completing more complex tasks.
a study shows that knowledge-intensive industries such as finance, advertising, consulting, information and communication are more vulnerable to ai. however, industries with lower knowledge content such as mining, construction, management support, and transportation have little to do with ai. this has once again triggered people's fear of technological explosion. automation has already caused many blue-collar workers to lose their jobs. will even the jobs of high-tech workers be lost? is ai a substitute or a catalyst? both are important and perform differently in different industries. jobs that do not require judgment on ambiguous events can be automated. in knowledge-intensive industries, using ai to enhance workers' work capabilities is a better choice. ai may replace some jobs, but it can also improve the productivity of some people. although it can provide valuable tools for work, it may have biased or misleading judgments in high-risk decisions, which means that human judgment cannot be completely replaced.
cost, as well as the ability to allocate resources, adjust production processes and business models, can affect the efficiency of ai popularization and promotion, and thus determine the productivity effect of ai. the cost of ai model development, application and operation is high, and its high energy consumption will threaten the sustainable development goals of various countries; data and skills bottlenecks will also affect the implementation of ai projects. by using the advantages of ai technology to consolidate their market position, technology giants will further widen the gap with other companies. therefore, supervision of ai technology competition will be a key link in encouraging innovation and productivity development for all.
many economists are optimistic that breakthroughs in ai technology may permanently increase the rate of productivity growth. however, throughout history, the process of technological innovation and application has always been ups and downs, often affected by external factors. at present, it is too early to worry about large-scale unemployment and expect significant productivity growth. but ai can still revolutionize the way of working, affect business models, and change the distribution pattern. studies have shown that ai can bring more help to low-level workers, thereby improving the current situation of unequal distribution. is the main role of ai an automated worker bee that may cause unemployment and wage cuts, or an assistant that brings new products, new services, new business models and new jobs? relevant departments should formulate policies to increase investment in education, promote skills training, provide career counseling and job search assistance, ensure fair competition, optimize labor and capital tax policies, and prevent improper use of ai, so as to ultimately achieve its smooth and benign landing. (author christopher andrew, translated by wei mou)▲
