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commodity futures tycoon bets on the "gold bean portfolio"? !

with the latest disclosure of the fund's semi-annual report, the layout of commodity futures investment giants and private equity institutions in the commodity market has revealed the tip of the iceberg. futures investment giants including xiao guoping, chairman of yongan guofu, and liang ruian have bought commodity etfs traded on the exchange, attracting market attention.

gold etf and soybean meal etf, the "gold and soybean combination" that has become the focus of attention, have once again become the focus after their outstanding performance in 2022. with the ministry of commerce launching an anti-dumping investigation on rapeseed imported from canada on september 3, rapeseed meal has risen by more than 13% in a week, triggering higher market expectations for the performance of the "gold and soybean combination" in the fourth quarter.

futures private equity giants dominate the list of commodity etfs

as the semi-annual reports of funds are released one after another, in the soybean meal etf (159985) market, yongan guofu asset management co., ltd., a private equity institution with a value of tens of billions of yuan that started out as a futures investor, continues to dominate the list. according to the semi-annual report of public funds, as of the end of june this year, a product under yongan guofu asset management co., ltd. appeared on the list of the top ten holders of soybean meal etf, and xiao guoping, chairman of yongan guofu, was also on the list.

data shows that as of the end of june this year, yongan guofu asset management co., ltd. - yongan guofu - stable no. 9 private equity investment fund held a total of 4.6349 million soybean meal etfs, while yongan guofu chairman xiao guoping himself held 4.25 million shares. the two together accounted for 1.36% of the total fund shares.

this is the second time that yongan guofu's products and the company's chairman xiao guoping have appeared on the list of the top ten holders of soybean meal etf fund reports. in the 2023 annual report, three products under yongan guofu and xiao guoping himself are on the list. in terms of the number of shares, wenji no. 5 holds 1.6128 million shares, wenji no. 8 holds 1.5025 million shares, wenji no. 9 holds 4.6349 million shares, and xiao guoping himself holds 4.25 million shares.

in addition, futures tycoon liang ruian made a large investment in gold in the first half of this year, appearing on the mid-year top ten holders list of two gold etf funds, with a total amount of funds exceeding 100 million yuan. specifically, liang ruian holds 24.2442 million shares of gold etf (518880) and 7.5 million shares of gold etf fund (159937).

data shows that there are currently 17 commodity etfs in the domestic etf market, covering gold, non-ferrous metals, energy and chemical industry, agricultural products and other fields. except for the 30% decline in the fund share of the energy and chemical industry etf (159981), the other 16 commodity etfs all showed a double-digit growth trend.

with funds buying at the bottom, is the “golden bean combination” about to take off?

as the bets of the two futures giants on gold and soybeans were exposed, the market once again paid attention to the "gold-bean combination". previously in 2022, gold and soybean meal became the direction of capital gathering, known as the "gold-bean combination". at that time, due to the increasing risk of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties such as international trade disputes, gold prices continued to rise, and soybean meal supply continued to be tight. the average annual increase of gold etfs was nearly 10%, while the soybean meal etf increased by 64.62%, far ahead of the market.

on september 3, the spokesperson of the ministry of commerce announced that it had launched an anti-dumping investigation on canola imports from canada. according to recent reports from china's domestic industry, canada's canola exports to china have increased significantly and are suspected of dumping, reaching us$3.47 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 170%, and prices have continued to fall. affected by canada's unfair competition, china's domestic canola-related industries have continued to lose money.

affected by this, on september 3, the main contract of rapeseed meal futures hit the upper limit, reaching 6%, the largest single-day increase in nearly a year. subsequently, the main contract of rapeseed meal futures continued to rise, with a weekly increase of more than 13%. the continuous surge in rapeseed meal has driven soybean meal to follow suit, and the price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed rapidly. the quotation of the main contract of domestic soybean meal futures has exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton from 2,900 yuan/ton.

previously, after reaching the highest point of the year in late may, u.s. soybeans and domestic soybean meal prices fell sharply in the past two months. on august 15, u.s. soybeans closed at 955.25 cents per bushel, a four-year low. the price of the main domestic soybean meal futures contract fell to 2,862 yuan per ton on august 13, also a four-year low, and fell by 797 yuan per ton from the high point in may, a drop of 21.8%. subsequently, the prices of u.s. soybeans and soybean meal rebounded and continued to rise.

at the same time, judging from the soybean meal etf shares, market funds are also accelerating the process of bottom-fishing against the trend. the fund shares have increased from 737 million shares on august 13 to over 873 million shares on september 6, setting a historical high. the shares have increased by 142% so far this year, and the total scale has reached 1.7 billion yuan, also setting a historical high.

"august, the most stressful month, has passed." hong chenliang, an analyst at jianxin futures, believes that the current planting cost of new-season u.s. soybeans recognized by the mainstream market is 1150 cents per bushel. of course, the planting cost is often broken during every bear market, but below 1070 cents, the valuation is relatively low and the sentiment is pessimistic. u.s. soybeans may maintain a bottoming market for a period of time, and domestic soybean meal is also priced according to the cost of u.s. soybeans. however, from a seasonal perspective, the destocking cycle has gradually begun after august in previous years, and there is a possibility of a reversal of the supply and demand pattern in the fourth quarter.