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editor's note

in recent years, the united states has frequently tried to win over asean to confront china, trying to involve asean countries in great power competition. in a survey conducted by the yusof ishak institute of southeast asian studies in singapore this year, when asked who they would choose if they were forced to choose between china and the united states, 50.5% of southeast asian respondents said they would choose china instead of the united states.

why is it said that the united states may lose southeast asia because of israel? how did china win the hearts and minds of the people? lynn kuok, lee kuan yew southeast asian studies professor at the brookings institution and a senior fellow at cambridge university, recently published an article in foreign affairs to interpret the above questions. phoenix reference excerpts and summarizes important views and content for reference by professionals.

key points

1. the author believes that although the united states has been emphasizing "convergence" with its asian partners in recent years, it is actually losing support in southeast asia. in the eyes of many southeast asians, the united states is becoming a country that is dysfunctional at home and pursues a nakedly selfish agenda abroad.

2. in view of the fact that the united states has lost the most support in muslim-majority countries, the author believes that the strong support of the united states for israel in the palestinian-israeli conflict is likely to have caused dissatisfaction among the people of these countries. many malaysians have begun to boycott american products, and some malaysian diplomats have even directly stated: "we will choose china because of gaza."

3. the author found in the survey that many laotians took off their shoes and boarded chinese trains as if they were going home. this shows that the projects under the "belt and road" initiative initiated by china have brought growth and development potential to the countries along the route and won the hearts of the locals. the survey shows that when asked who is the "most influential economic power" in southeast asia, nearly 60% of the respondents chose china, while only 14% chose the united states. at present, china has more economic influence in southeast asia than the united states, which may be an important reason why the respondents chose china.

4. the author judges that china's growing influence in southeast asia has weakened the united states' ability to engage in bilateral and multilateral strategic engagement in the region, and it is not easy for the united states to win support in southeast asia. at the same time, the difficulties faced by the united states in southeast asia are only part of the larger dilemma it faces in gaining support and influence around the world. however, southeast asia is particularly important to the us strategy because it is located at the core of the region that washington has identified as a priority, and the outcome of the sino-us game depends on the "indo-pacific region."

compiled by song dongze, qu gongze and wang junhao

the united states is losing ground in key regions of asia

the united states has recently been touting its “convergence” with its asian partners. in june, at the annual shangri-la dialogue in singapore, u.s. defense secretary lloyd austin spoke on the topic of “a new convergence in the indo-pacific.” the following month, at the brookings institution, u.s. secretary of state antony blinken insisted that the united states is “more convergent” with its key partners in asia, citing strengthening u.s.-japan and u.s.-south korea ties and nato’s growing security ties with the indo-pacific. also at the aspen security forum in july, blinken reiterated that he had “never seen so much convergence between the united states and our european partners and our asian partners in terms of attitudes toward russia and attitudes toward china.”

however, the fact is that the united states is losing ground in key regions in asia.the iseas-yusof ishak institute, a research institute funded primarily by the singapore government but working independently, surveys 1,000 to 2,000 respondents each year from academia, think tanks, the private sector, civil society, nonprofits, media, governments, and regional and international organizations in the ten countries of the association of southeast asian nations (asean). the survey is the closest thing southeast asia has to a longitudinal study of "elite opinion" on regional and international affairs, and while some may quibble over its details, it still provides a good sense of the trajectory of popular opinion.in this year's poll, when asked who asean should ally with if it was forced to choose between the united states and china, most respondents chose china over the united states. this is the first time that china has become the choice of the majority of respondents since the question was added to the 2020 survey.

▎ trends in survey results on this issue since 2020. source: iseas-yusof ishak institute

the decline in us approval ratings should serve as a wake-up call for washington.because the united states views china as its main competitor and the indo-pacific region as a key battleground. southeast asia is located at the geographical center of this vast and dynamic region.there are two allies of the united states (the philippines and thailand) and several important partners. the united states' goals in the indo-pacific region are hindered by the loss of advantage over china. the united states has military facilities in the philippines and singapore, which are particularly important in the event of a direct conflict between china and the united states.but short of war, china’s growing influence in southeast asia will undermine the united states’ ability to achieve strategic effects through bilateral and multilateral engagement.although many southeast asian countries are not liberal democracies and their governments do not necessarily implement foreign policy in line with public opinion, the survey respondents included government officials, so even non-liberal democracies are now feeling the pressure of public opinion.

the united states has indeed had some success in southeast asia in recent years. the biden administration has particularly strengthened relations with the philippines, securing access to four new u.s. military bases in 2023. biden visited hanoi last september, and in response to continued high-level diplomatic engagement, vietnam also formally upgraded its relationship with the united states by two levels, to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" - although the extent to which this will translate into increased cooperation in the defense and security sectors and deepening economic ties remains to be seen.

however, the us fares quite poorly in most other southeast asian countries. in the 2020 survey – the first time the yusof ishak institute asked respondents “if asean is forced to ally with one of its two strategic rivals, the us or china, which country should it choose?” – 50.2% of respondents chose the us, while 49.8% chose china. in 2023, 61% of respondents chose the us, while only 39% chose china, although the us performed below the overall average in brunei, indonesia, laos, malaysia and thailand.however, in the 2024 survey, china surpassed the united states as the region's top choice for an alliance partner: 50.5% of respondents chose china, while 49.5% chose the united states.

▎screenshot from the report source: iseas-yusof ishak institute

breaking down this year's results by country, the united states has fallen behind china the most among respondents in laos (down 30 points), malaysia (down 20 points), indonesia (down 20 points), cambodia (down 18 points), and brunei (down 15 points) since the 2023 survey. u.s. support has also fallen in myanmar and thailand (down 10 points and 9 points, respectively).

the united states still enjoys high support in the philippines (83% of respondents choose to ally with the united states over china) and vietnam (79% of respondents choose to ally with the united states), and also has solid support in singapore (62%), myanmar (58%), and cambodia (55%). however, only three countries (the philippines, singapore, and vietnam) will become more favorable to aligning with the united states over china from 2023 to 2024, and the increase is very small. given the framing of the question, america’s loss is china’s gain.in other words, respondents (including government officials) in many countries in southeast asia, including one of the united states’ two allies (thailand) and two of the four partners with which the u.s. indo-pacific strategy seeks to strengthen relations (indonesia and malaysia), now say that if forced to ally with only one of the two strategic rivals, they would choose china over the united states.

▎survey results broken down by country. map: lianhe zaobao

“we will choose china because of gaza”

the united states has lost support most significantly in muslim-majority countries. the 2024 survey showed a sharp shift in sentiment compared to 2023. 75% of malaysian respondents, 73% of indonesian respondents and 70% of brunei respondents said they would prefer to ally with china over the united states, compared to 55%, 54% and 55% respectively in 2023. the survey did not ask respondents why they made this choice.but when another question asked respondents to choose the three geopolitical issues that concerned them most, nearly half ranked the israel-hamas conflict at the top., more than 40% of respondents ranked the south china sea dispute, which is geographically closer, first. this is very telling.

▎ malaysian prime minister anwar delivered a speech at a solidarity rally in support of palestinians in kuala lumpur. source: reuters

the united states' strong support for israel is likely to tip the balance toward china. respondents in all three muslim-majority countries ranked the israel-hamas conflict as their top geopolitical concern: 83% of malaysian respondents, 79% of brunei respondents and 75% of indonesian respondents selected this option. singapore, which has a large malay muslim minority (15% of its population), also ranked the israel-hamas conflict as its top concern, with 58% of respondents selecting this option.

the findings chime with conversations i've had recently in the region. indonesian diplomats i spoke with were harshly critical of the u.s. position on the gaza war.a senior malaysian diplomat declared: "we will choose china for gaza."in another conversation, a senior malaysian official said directly that although malaysia has long pursued a non-aligned foreign policy and has been critical of us middle east policy, anger towards israel and the united states is growing;many malaysians are now boycotting american food and consumer brands. in contrast, china's image in malaysians' minds is getting better and better.

laotians take off their shoes to board chinese trains as if they were going home

cambodian respondents expressed a preference for an alliance with the united states, although this preference was 18 percentage points weaker than in 2023, which seems surprising given the cambodian government’s staunch pro-china stance. in fact, when i spoke to ordinary cambodians during a visit in march, they said they valued u.s. support for democracy.yet even those who think highly of the united states are unable to point to any specific contributions the united states has made to cambodia beyond its support for civil society groups.

in june, u.s. defense secretary lloyd austin visited phnom penh to explore opportunities for stronger defense ties. but this attempt to strengthen ties with cambodia lags far behind beijing’s outreach to the country. in 2019, cambodia reportedly reached an agreement with china to allow the chinese military exclusive use of the ream naval base on the gulf of thailand, providing china with strategic and logistical advantages — although both phnom penh and the chinese government have denied that china uses the base for military purposes.(editor's note: china has made clear responses to the us hype about the ream naval base on many occasions. chinese foreign ministry spokesman mao ning clearly stated that the china-aided upgrade and renovation project of the cambodian ream naval base is a normal aid activity to cambodia, aimed at strengthening the cambodian navy's ability to maintain maritime territorial integrity, in line with the domestic laws of the two countries, relevant international laws and international practices, and is not directed against any third party. the cambodian side has also made clarifications on this many times.) china also plays an important role in cambodia's economy.

according to the cambodian government's investment promotion and facilitation body, the council for the development of cambodia, chinese investment accounted for nearly 50% of cambodia's total financing in may, while the united states accounted for less than 1%. in august, china broke ground on a $1.7 billion canal connecting phnom penh to the gulf of thailand.

▎on august 5, hong manai and his wife presided over the groundbreaking ceremony of the de chong funan canal project. photo by chen gang

likewise, while washington may boast that the united states has upgraded its relationship with vietnam, china has enjoyed this level of partnership since 2008. three months after the united states upgraded its relationship, hanoi further upgraded vietnam's strategic relationship with china. the two countries announced 36 new cooperation agreements in 2023, and hanoi also issued a joint statement on diplomatic relations that adhered to the language that china wanted: that china and vietnam form a "community of shared destiny", a phrase that hanoi had avoided for years for fear that it was vague and would be seen as siding with china.

western media often report that china's "belt and road" initiative brings about the so-called "debt trap."but the belt and road initiative is widely welcomed in southeast asia for its potential for growth and development for countries along the route.a senior diplomat from the region called the belt and road initiative a model for winning “hearts and minds”.in january this year, i travelled to laos when the asean foreign ministers’ retreat was being held in luang prabang, the cultural and spiritual centre of laos.there is no sign that china and the united states are competing for influence because there is only chinese influence in people's daily lives.in april 2023, a belt and road railway running through luang prabang and connecting laos and china was fully opened, and luang prabang residents gave positive comments on the boost to local businesses.

▎on december 2, 2021, the day before the opening of the china-laos railway, a monk prayed for the train at a buddhist ceremony. source: reuters

a lao hotel manager who has helped passengers as an employee of the chinese-controlled lao-china railway company said some passengers took off their shoes before boarding and left them on the platform. for many lao villagers, it was their first time riding a train. but this amusing anecdote also reveals a deeper problem:in asia, people are accustomed to taking off their shoes before entering the house, and the lao people are clearly comfortable with china's railways.

the united states has become a double standard in the eyes of southeast asians

china’s growing influence in southeast asia has diminished the united states’ ability to engage in bilateral and multilateral strategic engagement in the region. the most obvious example is asean’s cautious approach to the south china sea: despite beijing’s increasingly aggressive actions in the philippines’ “exclusive economic zone” last year, asean has not issued any statements criticizing china by name. (editor's note: on february 17, 2024, local time, wang yi, member of the political bureau of the cpc central committee and foreign minister, attended the munich security conference, delivered a keynote speech at the "china special session" and answered questions on the spot, refuting the fallacy that china is aggressive in the south china sea. wang yi said that the south china sea islands have always been chinese territory. in the 1960s and 1970s, some countries successively occupied some of china's islands and reefs, but china always maintained restraint and insisted on resolving issues through friendly consultations. how could it be aggressive? in 2002, china promoted the signing of the "declaration on the conduct of parties in the south china sea" with asean countries, which effectively maintained peace and stability in the south china sea.)

but the united states’ failure in southeast asia also threatens its position in other regions: both in garnering condemnation of russia and in gaining support for u.s. policy in the middle east. perceptions of national interests determine a country’s position on any issue. but maintaining good relations with southeast asian countries helps washington convince them why a certain stance might be in their interest. washington’s calls for a stronger global response to russia’s flagrant violations of international law, which undermine the interests of all countries, have mostly fallen on deaf ears in southeast asia.

▎ on june 20, 2024, russian president vladimir putin paid a state visit to vietnam. source: vna

the perception that the united states has double standards in foreign policy — and that it has self-serving goals when it comes to china — undermines its ability to win broader support.when many southeast asians look at the united states now, they see a country that is dysfunctional at home and pursuing a nakedly self-interested agenda abroad.

to regain support in southeast asia, the united states should avoid overstating its convergence with its asian partners. 。 emphasizing convergence, at best, suggests washington’s lack of appreciation for the united states’ declining role in southeast asia; at worst, it suggests that southeast asia is being neglected in u.s. foreign policy. washington should also recognize that while southeast asian governments, especially those that contest territorial and maritime rights with china, may be unhappy with beijing’s actions in the south china sea, the dispute does not comprise the entirety of their relationship with china. this is true even for the philippines: beijing still has room to temper manila’s response by acting more friendly on the south china sea, fulfilling its obligations under the belt and road agreement, or providing other investments.(editor's note: in recent years, the philippine government has frequently infringed on rights and interests in the south china sea, provoked incidents, spread false information, and misled the international community, going further and further down a dangerous path.)

washington must strengthen its economic engagement with the region: for southeast asian countries, economics means security.the survey by the yusof ishak institute of southeast asian studies asked respondents who was the "most influential economic power" in southeast asia, and nearly 60% of respondents chose china, while only 14% chose the united states.

▎ china and asean have been each other's largest trading partners for four consecutive years. source: nikkei chinese website

the united states wants to counter china's "false information." but to do this, it must fundamentally address the reasons why this "false information" resonates.(editor's note: chinese foreign ministry spokesperson wang wenbin said at a regular press conference on march 15 that "the united states often accuses other countries of spreading false information, but in fact the united states itself is the real source of false information." at the regular press conference of the ministry of foreign affairs on march 20, chinese foreign ministry spokesperson lin jian said that "accusing china of spreading false information is itself false information.")on gaza, china portrays the united states as a "cowardly warmonger"; many southeast asians i spoke to recently, including non-muslims, said this is how they really feel.yet it is washington’s response to the gaza crisis – supporting, or at least acquiescing in, israel’s worst atrocities – that makes this characterization tenable.

▎ us secretary of state antony blinken attends the asean regional forum in vientiane, laos in july 2024. source: reuters

it will be an uphill battle for the united states to regain lost territory in southeast asia. the many difficulties the united states faces in southeast asia are not isolated cases; they are part of a larger dilemma facing the united states. : how to win over the countries of the global south or at least prevent them from falling into china's orbit - especially as china is actively courting developing countries. but southeast asia is particularly important to us strategy because it lies at the heart of the regions that washington has identified as priorities. after all, the game between the united states and china depends on the "indo-pacific region."

1.https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-losing-southeast-asia

2.https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2024-survey-report/

3.https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20240402-3244101

4.https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Majority-of-ASEAN-people-favor-China-over-U.S.-survey-finds